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hi there, I came across this video: "Artificial Intelligence Bitcoin price prediction. Using machine learning to predict the future price of bitcoin." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O7GMHzC1PbU I hope you find this useful. |
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An interesting site (your link). As I see it, ETH correlation decreased a few times in the past months, and even went to negative amounts, but every time it eventually returned to near 1.0 numbers.
The correlation between BTC and alts is very complicated IMHO, and it used to be different in the old times. Nowadays most of the alts seem to be closely related to BTC, and it has heavily damaged us altcoin hodlers when BTC is so bearish.
Yeah, that site, enroyd.com, is really interesting. Actually I found it via this blog article: https://captainaltcoin.com/xrp-and-btc-decoupling-time-is-still-a-pipe-dream/ Their analysis is focused on XRP, but it could be applied to ETH perfectly. |
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hi there, it would seem that the correlation coefficient between ETH and BTC has been decreasing: https://enroyd.com/ETH_Correlations/ Would a constant correlation coefficient around 0 indicate that Ether's price no longer depends on BTC? Are there any Stats experts here in the forum? Thanks! |
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Right now it seems that all alt coins' performance is tied to Bitcoin performance.
Do you think that someday ETH price movement can be separate from Bitcoin's?
Or flippening will happen?
This is why: https://enroyd.com/ETH_Correlations/ |
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I see what you mean. But it might also be true that there is some correlation between the sentiment scores and the price movements. This is what the guy in the video said, right? For example, look at this: https://enroyd.com/BTC_Sentiment/The sentiment score decreased when the prices decreased. |
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Ok, these are all very valid points.
But don't you think sentiment could be used as an additional factor? Couldn't you try to trade based on a combination of sentiment scores and other technical indicators, like RSI, Bollinger Bands, etc. ?
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I still believe in Bitcoin. The fundamentals haven't changed.
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Sure, but the two coins still seem to be correlated... this is a bit odd.
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A decreasing correlation IMO is not a good indicator for a rally. In fact, most of the traders don't even pay attention to correlation coefficients. Most of them focus on determining the current market sentiment(which I believe is biased on the site you have linked OP) and news. Even if correlation coefficients go down, I would not swap my altcoin portfolio to bitcoin unless I see it profitable to do so.
Thanks for your reply! Why do you think the sentiment is biased? Could you please elaborate? The price seems to follow the evolution of the sentiment score (or the other way around.... who knows): https://enroyd.com/btc_sentiment/I've been trying to think of a strategy that combines correlation and sentiment... well, and also the price predictions by sites like enroyd or walletinvestor. Not sure if this makes sense....?  |
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BTC Hi there, I'm quite new to crypto trading. I've seen that the correlation between Bitcoin and altcoins seems to follow some sort of cycles: https://enroyd.com/BTC_Correlations/https://enroyd.com/Correlations/I was wondering if a decreasing correlation could be indicative of a BTC rally. Do you think this makes sense? Would you swap alt for BTC when the correlation coefficients go down? Does anybody have any experience with this? Thanks! Bene 
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The market sentiment is (still) too negative for a bull run. Look: https://enroyd.com/btc_sentiment/You remember that study published by Yale? https://cointelegraph.com/news/yale-research-proposes-factors-for-crypto-price-prediction This is what they found out: "Apart from the momentum effect, the Yale researchers mention the factor of investor attention, which is a correlation between crypto prices and the number of posts and queries for cryptocurrencies on social media and in search engines." Hence, as long as the market sentiment doesn't improve, I don't think we'll see a huge bull run. What do you guys think? |
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Even though it might seem strange, I like to track the "emotions" of my "fellow" traders: https://enroyd.com/btc_sentiment/When I see that the long-term sentiment trend is positive, I hodl even if the price goes down. I cannot guarantee that it works, but.... does it make sense? |
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