I don’t think anyone can exactly predict a financial crisis but you can see the signs coming. For this post I am looking specifically at the US and issues I see there. I follow the belief  of “ when America sneezes the rest of the world gets a cold”.

I am in agreement that there will be issues in the next 5-10 years. You could say there always is. I am particularly concerned about a few specific elements. Interest rates, debt and Trump. There are loads more but I see these ones as having particular significance to the Atlantic side of things.
Interest rates. How anyone can look at the current financial system and say oh ya 20 years of nearly 0% interest rates is a a healthy system, is beyond me.

Think of it another way. Over the last 20ish years every government and bank has tried to just print money and keep rates low to kick start their economy( or keep it afloat). They are printing and giving away free money and there is still literally pathetic  economic growth out of all this. All economies have progressed some way or another but the free money of the last 20 years has not helped anyone ( other than the people who manage debt). .

I hear so many people moan about their mortgage interest rates and they are at 2.5%. UK
These people haven’t even looked at what their payment would be if interest rates hit 5-8%. No point in looking really I suppose. Currently the central bank rate  is .75%(BOE) and the banks top it up to 2.5ish for their beloved customers.

In the 80s my parents had a mortgage and the rate was 20%. House prices didn’t go up coz people couldn’t afford the repayments.  I’m not saying it will hit 20% Again, but it has before, just before it went to these nominal figures..
This credit bubble has done wonders for the housing market but I don’t believe the credit bubble is sustainable. Hence either is the housing market. Young people can’t afford the prices and people can’t pay off the debt they currently have. Options are prices go down, wages go up  or a smaller percentages of the population owns property and everyone rents off them.

Debt
When you look at  American college debt(1.2 trillion), overall debt etc etc, I think it is actually way worse than 2008 in numbers and banks being reckless. Simply because the 2008 debt was never paid off.. people just agreed to extend the payment process. No one paid off the crazy debt they owed. They just got more debt to pay the original debt. See where this is going? It’s been swept under rug. No one learnt a lesson from 2008. People say they did but their actions make it clear they didn’t.
That’s not even including the whole Europe / brexit / Chinacrash/trade war/ issues.
Whilst trade wars and the rest are global issues they are new issues. The real crash will happen when the underlying system that these wars sit on top of fail. I.e the credit system that all trade is dependent on.

So in summary—— low interest rates will come back to haunt everything ( some day)
           Debt— funded by this craze will then go on unpaid.- have a look at US student loan debt for some random        figures of impending not paying that back debt. (Some day)
           Trump— he Will de reg everything to allow as much money to flow as possible, anywhere, his pockets, American pockets, wherever ( as long as some flows through his). (Happening right now) This will keep happening until he leaves ( 2024 is looking very likely, sadly).

So there are problems, which in many ways I don’t mind. There are always problems and good leaders help solve them or just reduce the risk. You can’t solve evrything.
But as for Trump, he can’t solve anything.. he will only make it worse and intentionally worse at that.  

The Trump Dystopia  factor:  
If you want to take trumps historical actions into this, it seems almost scripted.
Trump buys it ( in this case wins it) ( look at Atlantic city)
He takes what can out of it ( publicity, fame, money, gravitas)It doesn’t do well as he isn’t a good business man or leader,, but check his history in relation to  businesses failing, , bad market, bad people , fake news or whatever caused it.
He just files for bankruptcy and fucks off. Or agrees to a licensing deal.

a crisis happening with Trump at the helm will be the mother of all considering the fundamentals and him. If he gets a second term ( which looks likely bar impeachment ( what a crazy sentence)) then hold your hat for 2023/24.. everything will be deregulated for a short term bump so no one will know. Until the person comes along.

I genuinely feel like I should write a joke here but when I read the above back, I don’t think I can top it.