The Reichstag Moment was insane and guess what he is doing now that he has been found guilty on 34 charges. In one of his most recent interviews he said this:


In other words, he has once again been intentionally playing rhetorically with the possibility for another riot should he get sent to jail. The way he does it knowing what happened back then shows how reckless he can be when it comes to civil peace.

That's true in regards to immediate effects, but I think long term what it does is to further solidifying Bitcoin's potential bottom price level as more ETFs in different places of the world means more access to Bitcoin for more people. It is a derivative product, but if the ETF provider is supposed to hold the Bitcoin in reserve to back up any claims tied to the ETF, it means less circulating Bitcoin on a global level. But as you said, it's not like Bitcoin jumps 10% because Australia launches an Bitcoin ETF product.

Regarding fees, I admit that I have never owned an ETF. I guess investors would incur a "fee per purchase" or do they also incur annual fees for management and administration?


I think you mentioned the two most important aspects here. Some Bitcoin owners don't want to deal with safe Bitcoin storage and regulatory compliance might be quite an important reason. Some interesting statistics would be about the actual ETF buyers. I don't think that it's a lot of normal people, smaller investors. They are probably more inclined to buy Bitcoin on an exchange themselves. I would speculate that the majority of ETF customers are institutional investors. I could be wrong though, but I assume nobody has any significant insights yet.

I don't know, I think the issue remains that there is a difference between talk and action. Of course Trump is now trying to mobilize all sorts of minority groups to make sure he won't lose the election with a few thousand votes or so, but whether or not he sticks to his word and will become the crypto guy he proclaims now? That's a difficult question as he is quite erratic, too. Once he might get elected as president, nothing will be set in stone by then. I guess he would still be more pro crypto than Biden, but whether he will become as pro crypto as he says remains to be seen then.

The issue is that it is not Biden alone who has an anti-stance and who is talking crap about some of the technological aspects, if he ever gets to it. The SEC is also talking bullshit and has some very strange opinions. I have no idea whether Trump becoming president would also mean that he can immediately replace relevant people at the SEC. I don't know how exactly the election of SEC people works and whether he can revoke decisions from the predecessor administration. But to really give BTC a boost it would need some significant changes at the SEC, too.

But overall I think the last word hasn't been spoken yet. However, Biden is such an old guy that I doubt he would ever fundamentally change his mind about cryptocurrencies. It would rather come down to his advisors.

You know that you have a strong team when your first line-up doesn't include David Alaba!

But I think the midfield still has room for improvements. In my opinion Valverde is not as good as Kroos or Modric. Davies would be a great addition if he is in top shape. He had some volatile performances recently, but if he is playing his best then it's insane how much speed he can bring into the game as a defender. In combination with Vinicius Junior playing ahead of him, that's a tough left side to play against.

Rodrygo is a great player, but I think he is somehow the one who doesn't quite fit into the category of Mbappe and Vinicius Junior. I think someone like Foden would be the perfect player for that position although I am not sure right now whether he mostly plays on the left or half left side? I remember him playing on the right as well. He probably can do both.

But all the dreaming aside, the team is top notch as it is already. Even if they don't get Davies, Alaba is still there and they will find impressive solutions regardless.

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Interestingly I somewhere read a post here saying that PSG could actually become better without PSG because the way he plays and the way he demands his teammates to play might not be the perfect way to exploit all the team's potential. I think when a player of his calibre goes to Real Madrid, he will quickly realize that he isn't the only superstar and if he thinks so, the only way to please everyone is to score loads and loads of goals.

Ronaldo was a very egoistic player, but he gave the answers with his goals, so nobody could really complain. Although I am sure that most people here know what I am talking about. Ronaldo couldn't enjoy when his team scored a goal but it wasn't him. That's a bit too much for my taste, being egoistic can be good as a striker. But it's better to have a team around you where more players can claim to be the best in the world.

Mbabbe is a rocket, he is a superstar and he has been for many years, but it often felt that what he did in France was all for the money. It's time that he now starts mostly for fun and to win titles and to prove to the world that he is the best in the world by scoring world class goals.

I doubt that he would show the same behavior in some of the games when he plays for Real Madrid. His body language at PSG was sometimes ignorant and arrogant. He would be well adivsed to not behave the same way when he plays for the biggest club in the world. I can also see that Ancelotti would be the perfect coach for him. AT PSG Mbappe didn't take things that seriously as he knew he was the king, but an uncrowned one as we now know.

I am not a medical doctor, but an addiction is I think per se a pathological description for an unhealthy state of mind (and body maybe). You could argue that someone who spends 50% of his life on gambling is addicted, but one guy might do it differently than another. In my opinion any sort of excessive behavior takes away time from other areas of life, but how would anyone argue when an addicted guy makes a few million in gambling in a couple of years? Then it was the addiction that ultimately made the person rich and allowed that person to live a life in freedom.

So the question would be whether the outcome of an addiction could ever be deemed positive? An addiction does not describe a losing behavior in gambling, but rather the total time spent and whether someone can say stop, but why would the person say stop if that person found a way to make money constantly? Is it an addiction? Is it smart to keep going?

But on a more general note I think that if someone spends the majority of time on gambling, chances are very little that the person has the focus and the mechanics under control to reliably stay in the net positive. It more likely points out a weakness that maybe a hint for further weaknesses.

It would be interesting to see though what a doctor would say if someone explains that he is making millions while spending 12 hours a day on gambling for the last 12 months.

Yes they are good clubs to have in the Premier League. However, I think some people today are still spoiled by this fairytale back at the time when Leicester City managed to win the Premier League. Unless they have limitless external financing from investors, there isn't much you can do as a club like Leicester to win the Premier League. Cash has become relevant in the last 10 - 15 years that I think investor led clubs will dominate most of the time.

I know that Chelsea would now be the perfect counter example and it is of course true that a perfect team and a great coach are the major ingredients, but money is probably the most important prerequisite. I don't think Leicester could repeat such an unbelievable result under normal circumstances.

The first player who comes to my mind when we talk about Leicester is of course Jamy Vardy. He was my favorite Leicester player for a very long time. And the guy is still playing for them and I wonder how that is even possible. 12 years in a row now. Good to see that players stay at a club that is important to them even during tough times when a relegation happens. It says a lot about his character as a professional sportsman.

Well this is a great topic and yes, making foolhardy bets sometimes happens. The problem about them is that if they hit, they could then be misleading positive results for future bets. The thing is that a foolhardy bet is not necessarily a losing bet. That's where it is to important to realize that what someone did was foolish despite winning. But sometimes it is exactly these bets that have enormous payouts.

Though you are certainly right that over a longer period of time it would be a losing game to play. But on the other hand I think that all the knowledge and analysis in the world doesn't give you guaranteed wins either. You were talking about skills and while I believe there can be skill involved in gambling, I still have my doubts that some people turn it into a profession and can live off of it for many years. I am not talking about guys who get lucky gambling for three months and then let everyone know they would be professionals. I would rather like to see someone who can prove that professional gambling worked out for a few years as that would eliminate the luck factor if someone can have net positive results while paying attention to bank roll management etc. When someone says it, I am sceptical whether it is true or not.

But didn't Ederson have quite some competition from Stefan Ortega or was that only due to injury time?

Because I saw that Ortega made almost 20 full games, but I can't recall that Ederson was injured so much. He made about double the number of games, so pretty close to 1/3 vs. 2/3 of playing time. I wouldn't be shocked if Guardiola gives Ortega quite some games and that would probably not what Ederson is looking for.

I stopped calling any Saudi Arabia deals impossible because these guys are willing to pay sums of money that can't even be grasped. Imagine they offer Ortega 30 million, he says no, and they say ok we double the money. For how long could a guy like Ederson resist?

See what Mbappe has done and why he stayed at PSG. The reason was that he got this insane salary of 70 million per year or so and that he got lump sums or signing bonuses on top of that. Money can change everything.

But I would be a bit confused why a club from Saudi Arabia would pay so much for a goalkeeper. Not that it is not an important position, but still it would be a bit surprising.

I feel you might be right here, but the only thing I see is the endurance. I think that makes a huge difference as they are 27 years and 57 years. A 30 years gap is unbelievable huge. But one hit from Tyson in the right place and it is game over. I am not fully aware of their weights at the moment, but it is probably something around 30 pounds difference I would guess? Even 25 pounds are huge in boxing.

Has it all been set up as to how many rounds they will go? Ah, I checked google and no surprise that is the one question most people obviously want to know. It is 8 rounds with 2 minutes. I think for a 57 years old guy that is quite a distance. I saw some training scenes and he looks fresh, but it would be wrong assume that it is representative. 8 rounds still makes quite a difference compared to filming one quick cut of a whole session and upload that.

So yes endurance would be the one thing here that speaks in favor of Paul, but Tyson doesn't even have to move. Paul has a bit more range though, but if Tyson smartly saves his energy for some explosive attacks, I wonder how Jake would defend against it. Although I l kind of find this fight a bit stupid due to the difference in age, i am still interested in the result.

Anyone thinks they have any secret agreements like not knocking Paul out until there is no tomorrow? Because if Tyson gets in range and bangs him twice or three times with full force, man I don't wanna be Paul. Only for the money though as I think there is a lot of cash involved.

At this point the biggest question I have is whether Saudi Arabia will attack the transfer market big time or whether they will slightly slow down. This was so absurd how much money they have spent in transfer fees and salaries. Ronaldo's contract will end in 2025, but one thing is for sure: if he wants to try and play the World Cup in 2026, I am curious what his decision will be in regards to the club he wants to play for. Could a comeback to Europe still be possible? Ibrahimovic was the kind of guy who did it and Ronaldo will be in great physical condition when he turns 40. Money would no more be a problem for him but who knows maybe he would be willing to play for a second tier club with very low salary. Or he decides to extend his contract in Saudi Arabia one more time.

Playing in England for a club like Tottenham could be fun to watch. Or maybe a club like Dortmund in Germany. There wouldn't be a need for him to be tough in any negotiations as it probably doesn't matter whether he earns 5 million or 15 million. But it could be a great opportunity for him to prove a lot of people wrong and go to the World Cup. He is addicted to football and he still isn't susceptible to injuries. I think we might be in for a surprise.

There was some huge variance for most of the clubs. Inter Milan was brutally solid, no need to talk about that any further. But at the same time I thought Juventus Turin might have a solid comeback from the disaster last season and for a long time it looked very good for them, but then suddenly they performed like trash.

AC Milan was similarly unstable. They had some great phases with many wins in a row or many games without a loss, but I think as soon as they realized that the Serie A championship could not be won anymore, players are calming down and are probably less excited about the games to come.

Bologna is the surprise of the season to me. They haven't only qualified for the Champions League, but they have also beaten Inter Milan in the Coppa.

And I am sure everyone agrees that the disappointment of the season was Napoli. I don't even know whether this was more like an exception or whether it was that one great season and they will now get lost in the middle of the table as a mediocre team.

I believe that Bayer Leverkusen will have learnt their lesson from the game against Atalanta. They didn't expect this efficiency level from Atalanta while at the same time they couldn't put the ball in the back of the net themselves. Being down 2 goals after 26 minutes was new for them and I believe they felt nervous more than they did ever before in the season.

And Atalanta is a team that loves to have that early lead and then go for counter attacks. Leverkusen new they had to lead the game and Atalanta was fine to focus on the defense and wait for their final shot.

Next year I think we will still see a very strong Leverkusen team. They have achieved so much that there is no reason to be sad. They will be sad as for some players this means a once in a lifetime chance to play such a final. But overall they have delivered a once in a lifetime performance. Despite being convinced that they will play a great season again and that they are clearly a top 3 candidate, it is hard to believe that they could make it to 90 points again.

Bayern Munich will be furious next season. They will all be on fire. And the biggest risk for Leverkusen is to lose some of the key players. Wirtz said something about it and some others may leave the club, too. It's the perfect timing for them to make a lot of money after playing a perfect season. Real Madrid is after Wirtz as it seems and if you a young guy who has the chance to play with players like Bellingham and Vinicius Junior and perhaps Mbappe, I think it is very tough to decline the offer.

Experience might indeed be a big one here as Real Madrid is undoubtedly the most experienced team in that competition. And I think that this alone puts pressure on their opponents. Look how they eliminate teams like Manchester City or Bayern Munich or PSG. It often looks as if today the day has come where they get knocked out and yet again they can score out of nowhere. I never fully understood how that is even possible! So yes, experience can make a difference.

But the first point you made is also true. When two teams reach a final, it means that they must have been doing something right. They could get lucky once, but getting lucky all the time in a competition like that is impossible. And after all Dortmund hasn't only beaten teams like PSV, but teams like PSG and Atletico Madrid. Real Madrid is definitely not invulnerable. Look how close it was against RB Leipzig in the round of 16. Hell nobody was expecting that at all and Leipzig scored the equalizer away from home and had 20-11 shots! It was close to 50:50 ball possession. That's a good example where nobody thought it could go like that and Leipzig would have no chance at all.

I stand by my word that Dortmund should definitely not do some stupid mistake early in the game, like a dumb crossball at their own box or so. If they can play with highest concentration, this is going to be a great final for all football fans around the world. I am just sometimes a bit sceptical that Hummels will mess up a tackling and cause a penalty and in a worst case get a red card. That would be game over.

That is true but don't forget that Real Madrid started the season without a true striker. It's not like they didn't have any problems, but they did an amazing job buying Bellingham. It was both a great analysis and of course some luck as you can't anticipate that a player will play like he did.

Barcelona instead decided to sign Gundogan, who is beyond doubt a good player, but nowhere near as effective as some of the best players Real Madrid has. I am also not a big fan of Lewandowski anymore. He will always be able to score a great goal as he is a former world footballer and knows how to do it, but he isn't as good as he used to be and Barcelona needs absolutely outstanding strikers for their game. Strikers who can the full 90 minutes at maximum speed.

They have been signing these players who are either old or who were not able to deliver for their former clubs. Joao Felix scores less than 1 goal every 4 games. So he is a guy who scores less than 10 goals per season if you do the math. How is that enough? Vinicius Junior scored 23 goals and gave 11 assists in 38 games. That is good! And he is always a threat whereas Joao Felix is not. The list is longer and shows that Barcelona made decisions that now fire back. A contract with a huge salary for Lewandowski although he is soon 36 years old. It was smart for Lewandowski, but not smart for Barcelona...

Nobody is doubting Ancelotti's quality as a coach and as a human being in general, but I think it is more about the plans someone like him might have for life. Ancelotti has never been a coach of a national team. A very long time ago he was once a co-coach for Italy, but I can imagine that his dream would still be to coach a team and a huge tournament like the World Cup, the EURO or the Copa and I understand that.

He once made a statement and said that he doesn't want to be an old grandpa still sitting on the bench. That's why this discussion came up about Brazil and I believe one Brazilian official said something about Ancelotti. As everyone knows, the media catches that and makes a rumor out of it. I don't know how close it has ever been between Brazil or Ancelotti, but there is a chance that he will finish his contract in 2026 and and then take over a team and play a EURO and a World Cup in 2028 and 2030. He is now going to turn 65 this year and that plan might be what he wants to do. I doubt that he will retire without ever coaching a national team.

I think it would be naive to think in either direction. The truth is probably more in the middle of it. It would be stupid to think that there is no match fixing at all, but it would be stupid to think that match fixing is going on all the time.

I actually think that match fixing is hard to pull off these days. Given that there is a VAR and all these camera angles, all eyes on the referees. I wonder how you would even do it. Maybe goalkeepers could make stupid mistakes and it wouldn't be so obvious, but during a game there is so much space and everyone knows every situation can be checked from a dozen angles that I wouldn't know how to do it.

And don't forget that fixing means to achieve a certain outcome, but that might not even be possible. Assuming that a defender scores an own goal on purpose, the team might still win 3-1. Match fixing scandals have been detected in the past and punishments were huge for players especially. What would have to be paid to a player who is already earning a fortune to convince him to a mistake on purpose? Nobody who is earning 7 or 8 million a year or even more than that would be willing to destroy a game on purpose with the risk of getting caught.

I doubt that there is classic match fixing going on in the top leagues. It could of course be, but the gesture that Guardiola went to shake his hand was due to the emotional exceptional situation I guess. Guardiola would be stupid if he knew that game was fixed and then actually goes there such that the whole world can see him shaking hands with a player from their opponent. It didn't look very nice though and I am not surprised that some people had the suspicion that Son Heung-min deliberately gave away that chance. But mistakes happen and I doubt it had anything to do with match fixing.

Though there can be other. forms of match fixing. Just remember how Bayern scored a goal against Real Madrid and the referee has blown the whistle, which is against all rules and you never see the referees raise the flag immediately when it is so close. Sometimes it is obviously offside and they still let the game continue just to be safe and in this case the referee immediately said it was offside. It was a very suspicious situation in that game and there were discussions for good reasons whether something was going on.

Yes but he also realized that he has a great team under management while Brazil isn't doing very well and he made the perfect decision. Look where they stand now and he has once again a chance to win the Champions League. I think it is very unlikely that Brazil will be able to win a title anytime soon. It's crazy how badly they are doing at the moment and that's what Ancelotti noticed. Why take on a job for a team that is in trouble while he himself is coaching one of the best clubs in the world. But I guess 2026 will be his end though. Although I think it is not entirely impossible that he can't let go. The guy is a football enthusiast from top to bottom and it would be a huge loss for the sport if he decides to step down.