Hello Everyone,
Sometimes the most obvious things are the things that are overlooked the most.
Take a look at this chart.
Yeh, so you've seen this chart before. Big deal.
Actually, it is a really big deal. Take this chart and compare it with this February 2013 - August 2013 chart.
Notice any similarities? If this pattern plays out, which I'm betting money on that it will, we should be seeing a reversal starting anytime in the next month. From the looks of the chart, April 15th - 20th is the most probable time for this to begin.
Note that when this happens, it is likely it won't be a sudden reversal but actually a steady uptrend for another 3 months before taking off. As you can see the second chart, this is about what happened in August and September. Of course, new positive news being released could speed this process up, but without this extreme catalyst, a slow and steady 3 month uptrend to 775 is the most likely scenario in my opinion.
The math that I used to calculate this is based on the fact that the 2013 chart shows a run up from its low of $63 in July to about $130 in September. This $130 is about 2/3 of the price $190 that our trend line was at in the pattern that began around the beginning of April 2013. . Therefore, if you expect trends to stay the same, we should be returning to about 2/3's of our previous trend line high of $1163 in December. This is about $775.
I also believe that these two charts can be used to set a future price target after the $775 mark that we should see in June-July 2014. By dividing bitcoin's current high of $1163 (Bitstamp) by the $125 price in September-October 2013 that formed as a result of slow increase after the early 2013 crash, we can calculate about a 9.3x run up. Therefore, if past results are any indicator of the future, we should expect a run up from $775 to about $7,200. However, I would caution people not to expect this $7200 figure because I believe we should start to slowly see the law of large numbers taking effect on future gains. Therefore, a more reasonable estimate, based entirely on my gut feeling, might be $5,000-$6000.
After this, the panic stage that we have been in for the last several months is likely to repeat itself and drop the price back down to sub $3,000. I found this number by dividing the 2014 low of about $400 by the high of $1163. This gave me about 0.344 which I multiplied by the future high of $7,000.
I tried to show my math as much as possible in order to try and prove my logic.
Let me know if you agree or disagree with my findings.
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