One doesn't need simulations. It's obvious that with such betting pattern as demonstrated by mateo you can only win if you know the server key. Whether it's due to another bug or devs' scam is yet to be seen.
It'll be interesting to see the post mortem analysis. Assuming manl will ever show up, that is.

I understand this can happen, what makes this strange is the timing. Profit went down significantly when multiple refunds were issued. That's why I join to Geegeegee's question whether it's possible to verify that this indeed happened because of legitimate bets.

I'm also interested in this. My understanding is that the refund to the rollers was to be done out of devs' pockets, while now it seems that somehow investors payed it, at least partially.
Not accusing anyone, but 100BTC down in profit in half a day seems strange.