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Why is everyone still trading at ~70% ? Don't you buyers of goxcoins see that you're just facilitating a massive riskless arbitrage between gox and other exchanges for those stuck in Gox?
At current prices (say $300 at Gox and $620 at stamp for simplicity), someone at Gox with 1 goxbtc can simply buy 0.7 realbtc from one of you, instantly converting his $300 to $435, while you get the short end of the deal, taking all the future gox risk for yourself, while also reducing your current profits.
How can you agree to such a shitty bargain, with no great assurance of payback in the future? IMO, you could easily squeeze these gox guys much more and bring that discounted price to a more fair level, ie. about 48% using above prices (it's much lower using real current prices).
SERIOUSLY, bring your bids lower down to the 40% level, we shouldn't be giving ourselves the short end of the stick here! My thoughts exactly. There was a reason why GoxBTC-USD price was the highest for long, there is a reason why it's 250$ now. Anyone who is trading virgin BTC for 1.3 of Gox's BTC is taking a risk that's worth substantially more. I would love to see Mt.Gox not starting withdrawals at all and just going bust or whatever, just to see these idiots burn. And, I wish I had money/BTC on Gox now, this opportunity is so, so undeservingly sweet. |
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Why is everyone still trading at ~70% ? Don't you buyers of goxcoins see that you're just facilitating a massive riskless arbitrage between gox and other exchanges for those stuck in Gox?
At current prices (say $300 at Gox and $620 at stamp for simplicity), someone at Gox with 1 goxbtc can simply buy 0.7 realbtc from one of you, instantly converting his $300 to $435, while you get the short end of the deal, taking all the future gox risk for yourself, while also reducing your current profits.
How can you agree to such a shitty bargain, with no great assurance of payback in the future? IMO, you could easily squeeze these gox guys much more and bring that discounted price to a more fair level, ie. about 48% using above prices (it's much lower using real current prices).
SERIOUSLY, bring your bids lower down to the 40% level, we shouldn't be giving ourselves the short end of the stick here!
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Damn. Should have shorted!  [/quote] Shorted 710 --> 680 twice  A bit late on the bear train, but still! |
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I bid for goxBTC at a 35% discount.
I think this realistically represents my risk assessment of Gox.
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Some things regarding handling of stuck transactions came up:
Txns stuck upto 7 days are not being treated manually..
Txns stuck for more than 7 days are being reimbursed back to your Gox account, including txn fees. Be sure that you are also reimbursed fees in this case, as you can probably claim them.
Trying to withdraw again is the onky way to help yourself withdraw from Gox if your withdrawal is reimbursed.
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I think activity will pick up this week. I guess the bad news about Charles Shrem made this uptrend a bit more difficult, but now as the next week unfolds, if there is no huge news, we should see an uptrend.
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In a way this is good news for the rest of the world because China will be left with holding worthless American fiat. They are sidelining themselves in the new global monetary revolution.
Well it's not all good. A majority of bitcoin trading still happens on chinese exchanges, and nobody is sure how these will be hit. Banks still process Yuan transactions for these exchanges ... for now. But given the open negative stance china has for bitcoin, who knows till when that will last. If that's banned too, the entire chinese market will basically move to local black markets. Not good at all. Meanwhile, russia also reveals an anti-bitcoin stance. You are assuming the trading supposedly going on in China is 100% genuine. That's quite a big assumption. But you are right the chinese market will move towards black market. But lots of black markets exist and some do very well indeed. Where there's a will there's a way. Indeed, there is a good possibility that the trading there is not genuine, mainly because of the suspicious volume, 0 fees, etc. But still, a black market can't possibly do as well as a proper regulated market. Especially in bringing mainstream adoption or even confidence among people. You are right in that under current regulations, there will be no "mainstream adoption". Confidence? Not so sure about that. That's the beauty of bitcoin. It doesn't need your government's endorsement for you to have confidence in it. You just have to believe it will gain traction globally. Chinese people are perfectly capable of investing in bitcoins, and traveling outside the country to "collect their winnings"  Well, sure ... but if the government stays anti-bitcoin, you also need to have the confidence to not be caught holding bitcoin when the government makes stricter rules. You never know when they might come out and say "we're gonna hang everyone with >0.1 BTC from today" lol (god forbid) |
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In a way this is good news for the rest of the world because China will be left with holding worthless American fiat. They are sidelining themselves in the new global monetary revolution.
Well it's not all good. A majority of bitcoin trading still happens on chinese exchanges, and nobody is sure how these will be hit. Banks still process Yuan transactions for these exchanges ... for now. But given the open negative stance china has for bitcoin, who knows till when that will last. If that's banned too, the entire chinese market will basically move to local black markets. Not good at all. Meanwhile, russia also reveals an anti-bitcoin stance. You are assuming the trading supposedly going on in China is 100% genuine. That's quite a big assumption. But you are right the chinese market will move towards black market. But lots of black markets exist and some do very well indeed. Where there's a will there's a way. Indeed, there is a good possibility that the trading there is not genuine, mainly because of the suspicious volume, 0 fees, etc. But still, a black market can't possibly do as well as a proper regulated market. Especially in bringing mainstream adoption or even confidence among people. |
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Great work! Got new reader!
Thanks! |
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In a way this is good news for the rest of the world because China will be left with holding worthless American fiat. They are sidelining themselves in the new global monetary revolution.
Well it's not all good. A majority of bitcoin trading still happens on chinese exchanges, and nobody is sure how these will be hit. Banks still process Yuan transactions for these exchanges ... for now. But given the open negative stance china has for bitcoin, who knows till when that will last. If that's banned too, the entire chinese market will basically move to local black markets. Not good at all. Meanwhile, russia also reveals an anti-bitcoin stance. |
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You left out something very important: "January 31st is the last day payment companies and banks are allowed to deal in bitcoin in China." Thanks, yes it's only china. Really, I'm not here to spread any FUD, I'm sorry if it seemed so. It's just that I've dealt with this news so often that I guess I'm being a little causal about it. |
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I write a weekly BTC analysis column at commodityblog. Given it's an important time for the Bitcoin markets and Bitcoin as a whole, I thought I might share my opinion and analysis to everyone here, I'm sure it might help some of you. This is my latest http://www.commodityblog.com/btc-technicals-january-27th-2014/I've been actively contributing to reddit for a while now, and I thought I should do so here also. Any and all comments and discussion on my the blog, my opinions and analysis are welcome. Thanks! |
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Which/Where is the Tarun's place? I'd very much like to visit when I go to Mumbai next time.
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