Recently, many different parties have tried to value Bitcoin by equating the value of the network to the amount of efficiency generated by it. For example:
- Fred Ehrsam from Coinbase wrote an article in Re/Code suggesting that the value of a bitcoin can be viewed as the sum of the cost savings of using the bitcoin network rather than alternative payment networks
- An article from Coindesk looked at market capitalizations of companies involved in transaction processing (MA, V, WU) and other related fields as a proxy for how much the bitcoin network could be worth
- Many commentators make the assertion that there is $500bn-$1trn of transaction fees incurred annually which can be reduced/eliminated by bitcoin and therefore the network and the bitcoin currency can be the beneficiary of this value.
Widespread adoption of the network/currency can definitely destroy the fee-based models of these companies, but why should the bitcoin market capitalization increase by the offsetting amount? When someone buys MA or V stock, they are buying future earnings from these companies. But when someone buys a bitcoin, there is no stream of fee revenue to create present value in bitcoin.
I think bitcoin price will be a function of adoption rates that drive the demand/supply curve; these other attempts to put an intrinsic value floor on bitcoin seem alluring but are inherently flawed.