You guys are all the same - except for the real dummies here who just get whipsawed by your blather.  Yeah... who are we kidding?

In response to any specific challenge you either make grand statements about civilization, global politics, and economics in general, or drop back to charting minutiae because, well, charts drive the market.  Or a half dozen other obfuscatory arguments.

Anunymint is most regrettable, though most risible, because his acidic ranting is so inflammatory.  Those with no knowledge of history or any perspective, and perhaps with few personal prospects, will be attracted and possibly radicalized.  Hitler worked the same way.  Anunymint (A) posits destruction of conventional finance (!) but... but (B) in such a way that his blockchain accounts are still valued (!) which requires believing that (C) it's all a world government conspiracy, ignoring the fact that (D) our governments couldn't secretly conspire on a surprise party at McDonalds and (E) that the 300 million desperate folks around him won't come for his assets while (F) farmers will still give him bread for BTC.  I could go on, but the man is a fool.  Or a complete hypocrite and just writes crap like that as hysteria clickbait for his blog.

Extasie and others resort to exaggeration, distortion, and slogan.  How can I know the future utility of bitcoin?  How can such an asset be worthless?  How can we value censorship resistance (yeah, how can we - beg the question much)?  On and on.

What I said and showed was clear.  The 2017 bulge in bitcoin value was manufactured.  So it will tend to sink back to its former value.  Too little has changed in the macro picture to drive anything else.  What about that don't you understand?  I gave you numbers:  $400-$600 in 18 months.  So then you switch from generalities to argue about the exact value...  It doesn't matter - your account will drop by 90%!  Or 85%.  Or 95%.  It's all terrible.

https://imgur.com/a/QTYOQyL

Then, because I'm in mutual funds - an utterly different vehicle - I have to somehow compare aspects of those with aspects of bitcoin, as if that's relevant to the main point.

I never said bitcoin won't someday be very valuable!  Maybe it will; nobody knows.  I never said it doesn't have profound economic and perhaps social significance.  I'm in awe of blockchain technology and hope it will help the world.  But between now and the end of 2019, the MOST LIKELY (read that phrase and THINK ABOUT IT - those that have the brainpower) event for BTC is a coastdown to near its pre-Q3 2017 level.  If you're simply betting, you never go against "most likely".

Clelland wants to bet.  I won't really, but would in theory be glad to put down $10K if I could get 20:1 odds on the BTC 30-day MA reaching $600 in 18 months + 30 days.  Or 10:1 odds on $800.  Or something similar.  So big forum guys with all the answers (and I mean literally), who would take that bet?  Remember that by the time you have to pay off (in dollars), your bitcoin will be worth one-tenth of what it is today.

You'll find me on the sidelines, as stated.  I wouldn't put a nickel into bitcoin right now.

Intrigued, I looked into BitBet.  Most sites discussing it are dead, and the place itself has had major ups and downs.  I doubt there's any way for me to safely invest enough money to make a speculation on this trend worthwhile.  I'm certainly not going to risk an escrow loss as well.

So I'll just watch.  I think BC clearly demonstrated its utility over the first 7-8 years, and that's at $400 or maybe $600.  All the harangue of the past 9 months will coast down back to that.

Yup.  Even dumb ol' me knows that selling high is better.  But you give no reason to suppose there will be any such major increase.

Again, any rise will run into exponential resistance as those now disenchanted sell out, when they get close to recovering their money.  That's just an observation - my main point is that the overall trend will be down, meaning only the sharpest traders should buy along the way.

Got it.  53 is the breakpoint for "older and wiser".  Older than that is dumber.  The rules are confusing.

Good on you for posting under your real name.  I don't choose to, sorry.  That makes me dumber too, I know.

See ya here in 18 months.

Source?  For 'will outperform' (not 'has outperformed') of course...  lots of fuzzy thinking on this forum.


I didn't say $400 next year.  I said it's heading for $400 in 18 months.  Maybe two years.  Maybe $600 or even $800.  Look at the curve - it shows the main idea:  down, down, down.   Feel free to replace my guesswork with your guesswork on the details.  I'm just trying to point out the big picture implications of what we now know.

https://imgur.com/a/QTYOQyL

If I could reliably buy a put on BC for 18 months out, I'd put $50K or $100K into it.  I'd probably price it at $800 to have some margin.  The profit would still be huge.  However, not only do I know nothing about such maneuvers, others have looked into it and say it's impractical.  A Forbes writer did a detailed piece on that several years ago, pointing out some hidden gotchas with crypto.  Can't find the link now but it certainly put me off.


Actually, I'm betting all my money that the mutual funds will do better.  Over the next 18 months I expect the market to return a 15% profit, not an 90% loss.  And as I noted earlier, my money won't be outright stolen, and I won't be cheated.  Those are huge benefits.  And I sleep well at night.

Maybe.  I wouldn't be real surprised if it ultimately flattens out at $600-$800.  But in the big picture today, those are details.  It still means "get out now".

And - I never said mutual funds are in the same league of returns.  I said they have good returns and are hugely less risky (which itself is a form of return).

You're a BC investor and you don't know about this?  Google "bitcoin manipulated tether".  Here's where it starts:

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3195066

Anyone else who predicted Bitcoin going down was right - at least in the last 6 months.  It's easy to call a prediction you don't like "FUD", but what do you expect?  There are no analyses proving that BC will go up or down.  Everyone except those who can manipulate the market are guessing.  Read the posts here - they're all either faith or guesswork.  I'm pointing out that the chances of BC going down have much more basis than any faith or hope it will go up.  A negative prediction isn't "pulling down BC".  Do you only listen to positive predictions??

Are you making money now?  Since January?  Really?  Then you're one of the sharp traders I mentioned who can time the market and profit on short-term changes.  The other 99% of the folks here will just lose more the longer they hold.  And if they try to time the market they'll lose faster.

It doesn't matter whether you bought at $2 or $20,000.  That's past.  If you hold onto BC now you're almost certainly going to lose money.  The value of your account will be down 90% in 18 months.

If I scurried off to analyze any link you feel like posting, I would be an idiot.  The coin industry churns out hundreds of these a week.  Next, I can guarantee you're not older.  And if you're upside-down on Bitcoin, you're not wiser either.  So you've shot your mouth off here 40 times - big deal; from what I've seen that's hardly a credential.

You're probably looking at a loss now, judging from all the passion against someone predicting a fall.  Did you buy at $10K?  You'll never get that back.  When BC does keep coasting down, you'll blame all the people who didn't just believe, believe, believe - like in the movies, where that works.

Or maybe - outside chance on this - you can get Legendary to sell you his/her coins.  Since you think their experience is so relevant.

I posted what looks like an obvious trend with a known cause.  That deserves to be presented, because almost nothing else about BC has either of those characteristics.  Ergo, the coastdown is most likely, and the smartest move now is get out.  (Not you; you should continue buying... and it will get cheaper all the time!).

Enjoy your red ink!

•  We shouldn't be anonymous?  Is 'anunymint' your real name?

•  We shouldn't be newbies?  How did you avoid that?

•  So what if Legendary bought at $2?  99% of the people here didn't.

Who bought for how much doesn't matter anyway - now is the time for everyone to sell.  I explained why that's the only move, based on what we know instead of what you might like to believe.


The Legendary comment is a typical of discussion here, thrown in for effect but making no actual sense.  And you call me an idiot!  OK, I change my recommendation:  you should buy more; everyone else should sell.

Thanks, I have had fun and will be rich long before 100.

BTW mutual funds are long-term.  Which is the approach everyone here recommends - now that getting rich quick didn't work out.

My advice is simply to learn from your mistake, and don't make it worse based on slogans, dreaming, groupthink, and slanted advice in general.  Just look at who's stirring the pot... the coin exchanges.  They're the only ones who continually make money out of this.

If you must invest in crypto, sell now and buy back in at $400.  That at least isn't obviously dumb.  The market may be pumped again someday.  Or put your money in a real investment.

"Dude use a logarithmic scale so you can see more clearly what is going on"

Dude, the only reason for log scales or any other charting shenanigans is trying to find some reason to hope.  Like I said in the OP - you're just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.  You're missing the forest for the trees.  Stand back and look at the big picture, which is very clear:  It's going down.  Of course it will jump around on the way down, but that won't change the overall trend.

https://imgur.com/a/QTYOQyL


[And - how do you post pictures right in the message like that?]

Yes, that's exactly what you should do.  Sell now.

No, I won't be buying any crypto.   No fundamental value or backing, and way too easy to be cheated.

This site is a social scientist's dream.  Ten PhDs could be written on the "bro" investment culture, groupthink, and general simple-mindedness.  95% of the responses to my prediction are "NO - ya gotta have faith!!"; "All markets go up and down"; "Think long-term"; and "We are the strong, and we believe".

The "long-term" heroes actually jumped in to get rich quick.  When that didn't happen, and faced with losing half their money, they are now prophets of HODL.  If the price ever does rise to where they got in, they'll sell, sell, sell.  That's a huge barrier to any advance.

But all that doesn't matter.  Bitcoin is GOING DOWN.  Back to around $400, as it was for so long.  That's apparently the real value to folks making non-standard financial transactions, primarily criminals.

Again, look at the chart in the link.  With what we know now, it's obvious that the price was manipulated, you were cheated, and if you hang on you'll lose more.

I'll be back in 18 months to say "Told ya so".  But I hope you're all out long before then.


EDIT:  For the record, I have no crypto coin.  All my money is in mutual funds.  Still risky but has done well AND you don't get cheated.  Sell your BC and buy something sensible like that.  You can still be a "playah".

Here's all you need to know.  It's on the way back to where it came from.  You can watch from the sidelines or ride it down.

By the most logical thinking:

•  There's strong evidence that the late 2017 spike in Bitcoin value was due to manipulation via Tether.

•  IF that is so, then that entire episode actually means nothing, and...

•  Bitcoin etc values will decay back to their historical levels prior to pump & dump.

•  This will be slow because interim buyers won't want to take the losses.

Look at BC charts for the past 6 months.  It's very easy to imagine the average value continuing to decay down to $400 in 12-18 months.  And that's what makes sense - at least, more sense than anything else.

A few brilliant traders will make money getting in and out during the decline, but all the other players here are just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.  The only "charting" you need is the big picture here:

https://imgur.com/a/QTYOQyL

Unfortunately, there seems to be no reliable way to buy a put on BC for that time-frame, or I would.