 Show Posts
|
|
Pages: [1] 2 »
|
In comparrison to what will happen to BTC price in the future, we are still at the GROUND LEVEL  Time to get on the train folks?  |
|
|
|
If nobody wanted that bitcoin, then it might be worth 100...000$ to you, but it would be worth 0$ to everyone else.
just... wrong thinking there... Moondust is so damn expensive because it requires a space mission to obtain some. If miners stopped selling mined bitcoins, there would still be 12 million bitcoins. The price would not go to infinity. Are you claiming that when the last bitcoin is mined, the price will go to infinity or zero?
True however the price would be driven by the increase of hashing power - difficulty to obtain bitcoin. Price will go to infinity only theoreticaly when last bitcoin is mined. Sum of all bitcoins price will be just equal to energy and resources that were required to produce all of those. And since the closer we get to the mining last one of them the more resources and energy are required to produce them. You cannot look at cryptos like you look at ordinary fiat money or gold. In 20 years i can imagine someone buying a miner that will have like 5godzillionhash/sec for 50 bilion dollar just to mine 1 bitcoin which will be worth perhaps 25billion. A sane person would use 40k$ to buy 40k$ worth of bitcoins instead of buying something that will mine only 20k$ worth of bitcoins.
Not exactly because you not only mine 20k$ worth bitcoins but you also increase the hashspeed of the pool that will eventualy drive the price up so your bitcoin will be worth more than 20k$ eventualy. Also you have a miner that you can sell for some amount of $ even though it wont mine much but with the new BTC price this "not much" maybe just enough for someone else to profit as the BTC price increases I totally appreciate miners and without them bitcoin would not exist in its present form. |
|
|
|
Your dude is from poland like me Anyway interesting piece of art |
|
|
|
Call me crazy but i decided to buy that painting for 1BTC. Its the first ever created painting in Bitcoin topic. I think its worth a hell lot more than 1BTC and I'm happy!  Libertas, Aequitas, Veritas - Freedom, Justice, Truth (beatiful isn't it?) "in crypto we trust..." A man in quasistatic motion stands on the guard of that values ready to protect it with his sharp kathanas. Everything in space - symbol of timelessness Earth on the horizon - symbol of home, hope and mankind Thats just my interpretation Edit: One more thing, reverse analogy vs dollar bill (Annuit Coeptis - he approves what he has begun; Novus ordo Seclorum - New order of the ages; In god (money) we trust) - meaningless selfish values imprinted in dollar bill are now rebuilt by crypto into something new and up-to-date. |
|
|
|
The cost of mining has very little (if any) effect on the price of Bitcoins. Instead, the price determines the cost of mining (except these days when people seem to be happy to mine at a loss).
I totally disagree! The model you are talking about works for fiat currency. It's not going to work with cryptos. Cryptos are the exact oposite of fiat so you have to reverse your thinking aproach. This has nothing to do with how currencies work. It is basic microeconomics. Price affects mining because if the price drops, then fewer people mine because it is no longer profitable for them. The difficulty drops and the costs go down. If the price rises, then more people mine because they can now make a profit. The difficulty goes up and the cost goes up. In the end, the cost of mining is around the value of the bitcoins mined (in theory). Now, please explain the mechanism behind how the cost of mining affects the price. Keep in mind that the amount of newly mined coins is only a small fraction of the trading volume on the exchanges. I don't understand why people continue to cling to your belief. Perhaps it is because the miners that are currently mining at a loss (which is most of them right now) pray that their mining will cause the price to rise so they don't feel so bad about it. Its the scaresity that drives it price not the present market usefullness (which is great by the way).
Scarcity is a factor, but you have to be careful because demand is an equal factor. If there were only a single bitcoin it would be extremely scarce, but if nobody wanted it, its value would be 0 despite its scarcity. Well if there would be a single bitcoin mined at the cost of 100000000000000000000000000000$ it would be worth exactly that. For example one gram of a moon dust is worth aproximately 5mln dollars... not because everyone wants to have it but because it's scarce!!! Get it? Bitcoin is a finite resource and the harder there is to obtain some, the bigger it's price will be. Nobody with any common sense to business would buy a miner for 40k$ just to mine 20k$ worth BTC and sell it for this price. The price drop after the 10 fold increase is just because the fact that miners were waiting to sell their ore. When ore reaches a certain level they sell driving the price down. If none of them would sell and just kept their BTC price would grow expotentialy to infinity because Bitcoin is finite resource! They actualy destabilize it's value by selling BTC on a peak. But it's totally OK to do so because they are going to use newly gained $ to buy a better miner (that will drive price up again in the future). Call me crazy man but if i could buy a 40k$ miner right now just to harvest 20k$ worth BTC i would buy it right now (unfortunatly i dont have 40k$). |
|
|
|
This just isn't practical and won't work. Maybe there is some point that you are trying to make by this suggestion, maybe you are trolling, or maybe we're giving you too much credit lol.
Unfortunately for this concept there are many more people in the market, and they will collectively, through speculation (and manipulation) drive the price of Bitcoin within the short-term. Over the longer term it is Bitcoin's public and commercial adoption that will drive its price, in value.
That's not true. Price of a currency is always driven in short term that eventualy will be reflected in the long term. Public adoption has nothing to do with it. Why do people buy Yen for $ for example if they live in USA and there is no market adoption for Yen in USA? By buyng Yen for $ they increase the price of a Yen and decrease the value of a $ in short term transactions. If they bought for example half of total Yen supply for a $, that would skyrocket JPY/USD price. So everything is about the VOLUME, not the amount of transactions. What if I say "sell my bitcoin for $10000", and someone reply me in the next post saying "buy your bitcoin for $10000"...and we will repeat it again and again in this thread.... OP, would you spend $10000 for 1 bitcoin then? Sure just show me the non-provisional trade platform so we can make the deal. And show me how many people are trading on that platform... its meaningless if we trade between each other in secrecy. That would need to happen on the living market so all other traders there could se how expensive is to buy 1BTC Now you get the point? |
|
|
|
If you are correct, then Robert Shiller, 2013 Nobel Prize winner in Economics, is also right, and Bitcoin has no "value" and is indeed a "bubble". Therefore, worthless.
If I am correct, Bitcoin has a value, as much as gold that had to be extracted from the ground with hardware, and labor. The value of Bitcoin is, I believe, built-in every coin minted - maybe not equally, but as a group. Again, I believe that it is the amount of work required (and hardware resource) that gives it its value. It doesn't have to have a day-to-day immediate correlation, but over a year or two - it must. Otherwise, it will just go away and not be valued by anyone. The coins miners are mining today at values of tomorrows price, not today - otherwise, they are all dumb. I believe that one or two person can be that dumb, but not thousands.
Similarly, gold itself, is just plain metal, like copper or aluminum. The value of gold is given by its rarity, by the amount of work to find it, and the cost to produce it in sufficient quantities to meet the demand - and also in part by its esthetic and cultural significance (which makes Dogecoin so attractive in crypto currency...)
I sure hope I am right and he is not. But I have never studied at Yale, so, not being as educated, he will probably win - sadly for us. Let's then enjoy the bubble while it last!
I think Robert Shiller is wrong. I dont think he understands the algorythm behind bitcoin. He just uses technical analysis for bitcoin market price which in fact looks like a bubble. I think you are right and i came up with same conclusion couple of days ago. Its the scaresity that drives it price not the present market usefullness (which is great by the way). |
|
|
|
The cost of mining has very little (if any) effect on the price of Bitcoins. Instead, the price determines the cost of mining (except these days when people seem to be happy to mine at a loss).
I totally disagree! The model you are talking about works for fiat currency. It's not going to work with cryptos. Cryptos are the exact oposite of fiat so you have to reverse your thinking aproach. |
|
|
|
This just isn't practical and won't work. Maybe there is some point that you are trying to make by this suggestion, maybe you are trolling, or maybe we're giving you too much credit lol.
Unfortunately for this concept there are many more people in the market, and they will collectively, through speculation (and manipulation) drive the price of Bitcoin within the short-term. Over the longer term it is Bitcoin's public and commercial adoption that will drive its price, in value.
That's not true. Price of a currency is always driven in short term that eventualy will be reflected in the long term. Public adoption has nothing to do with it. Why do people buy Yen for $ for example if they live in USA and there is no market adoption for Yen in USA? By buyng Yen for $ they increase the price of a Yen and decrease the value of a $ in short term transactions. If they bought for example half of total Yen supply for a $, that would skyrocket JPY/USD price. So everything is about the VOLUME, not the amount of transactions. |
|
|
|
|
IDK if some people on this forum are actualy retarded or is it me?
Dude... srsly. If you trade some volume from place to place using higher than average exchange rate, dont you realize that this will drive average price UP? If you posess some Bitcoin it means you are giving yourself profit because you are raising the price of your bitcoin! Is this so hard to understand??
|
|
|
|
Yes i realise that market steering like that could be senteced to life prison. Im not saying im going to do this... It's just a concept that i threw in. Did you noticed anything strange about bitcoin behavior in november and april 2013? Look at the volume pushed through the market... did you noticed how overpriced the trasactions were? Have you ever heard that some wealthy billionare threw some national bank to its knees by just pushing some huge amount of money through forex exchange? Was he sentenced to jail? No... Food for thought: a) If you have one bitcoin, that is 1/21mln part of all bitcoin capital that will ever exist on the market... If you consider global wealth and try to estimate it just for US, it will be something around M3 definition. M3 is M2+something more than M2 i assume. If M2 is 10,2 trillion USD and M1 is 1,2 trillion, So M3 (total USD) would be (10,2/1,2)*10,2=86,7T$ ( http://money.howstuffworks.com/how-much-money-is-in-the-world.htm) b) If you assume that other countries have 10 times more wealth in total, compared to USA wealth (take saudi arabia for example, they sure have a lot of money, maybe as much as half of USA) you can make a conclusion that total world wealth translated to $ i 860,7T$. c) If George Soros was able to throw down bank of England because of his one billion of dollars (that is 1/860700 of global wealth) are you able to throw down the bank of england by trading on bitcoin volume that would be equvalent of 1 billion dollars? d) How much you would have to trade to throw down all the banks? |
|
|
|
|
Yes you are right. My estimate 10(+54 zeros) was based on just hypothetic asumption that when all currency declines we will still have technological/labour value that will add a value to a bitcoin. 10(+54 zeros) is just a perspective that can be phrased right now considering FUTURE value of dollar (when inflatory monetary system devaluates value of dollar in 2040).
By the way I daytrade on forex on GPB/USD, USD/JPY and EUR/USD and what can i say is that:
- Bitcoin value change is compleetly non-technical, bitcoin market and all altcoins markets behave compleetly different than any other fiat currency exchange,
- There are NO elliot waves that are the baseline of all forex exchange in value behavior of bitcoin,
- Bitcoin/altcoin value is a complete anomaly and does not posess any significant random walk behavior like other fiat currencies does,
- Its an ideal fractal in long perspective due to non-existence of random walk,
- Its constantly in UP-trend in long perspective (all other traded altcoins also),
- Its idiotic to bet on value loss of a bitcoin because it has be constantly been since its birth in an UPTREND, i would not bet a single dollar that it will decrease in value in long perspective (always look at long time period: the thing i learned from the forex daytrading)
B.R.
R3qUi3M
|
|
|
|
Each cryptocurrency raises once a half a year by approx 10x. Untill all BTC is mined the time elapsed will be approx. 27 yrs from now that is 27*2=54 price jump events. It means that after first jump you will have 10 times more value and after second jump you will have 100 more. It means that if you buy bitcoin now for say 1000$, in 2040 you will have 1000(+54 zeros)$ Idk what number is that ^^ PS. Use that knowledge for your own discretion and risk. I dont take any responsibility if you actualy loose money |
|
|
|
 What the hell is your problem? That i want to fight the current establishment of montery system or what? |
|
|
|
|
So lets imagine two people buys 2 bitcoins each. I buy 2 bitcoins and you buy 2 bitcoins.
- Lets say current bitcoin price is 900$
- I sell you my bitcoin for say... 1000$
- You have 3 bitcoins now and -1000$. And i have your 1000$ but just 1 bitcoin
- Now lets say You sell me yor bitcoin for 1000$
- Now i have +0$ and again we both have 2 bitcoins and you have +0$.
- Now we repeat these steps over and over again... market average will show bitcoin price moving up...
- We can repeat until infinity until market average equals our trade...
We have just set a new market price for bitcoin.
We both now have 2 bitcoins each but we both earned 100$ for each bitcoin we had in the beginning.
Its totaly doable because of the small volume exchange/day on the market. 1 Bitcoin traiding back and forth can set up the new price level!
Everything cool but we will need a currency exchange without any provision!
Can someone please create a website simillar to other currency exchange platforms that will enable stuff above to happen?
|
|
|
|
Citation required. But feel free to buy a couple of petahash of asics and destroy the created bitcoins.
Good point! I imagine that if I had like 10mln BITcoins on my account now, i would just by some eggheads to design me a pentahash ASIC asap. Then i would just outmine all the competition leaving just the small fragments for them. But i wouldnt sell my bitcoins for fiat. I would never spend my mined BITcoins... i would just destroy them. Because they will have a lot less BTC than me, the price of a BTCvsUSD would skyrocket because there would be just few BTC on the market. And with present market awareness of BTC and its untrackability it could not be told whether BTC is so valuable or is there just so few of them . Would you spend your BTC on a Car knowing that for just one BTC you can live without doing any labor for the rest of your life? My BTC is worth to me a trilion of $... even though its present market value is just 2500$ Dont worry! In time it will be worth more than a small island |
|
|
|
|
Not realy... I think its still valid. Look for example on antimatter. Do you know how expensive is creation of it? Still no demand exists and the problem is that it exists only fraction of a second when its created but none the less is expensive as hell to posses antimatter. Do you think drugs would be so expensive if they were legal? They are expensive because the scaresity due to illegality gives them value.
There are places on earth where they mine diamonds just to destroy them after mining! Its because they want to keep the present value of a diamond!
|
|
|
|
Wrong on so many levels. It is NOT getting more difficult to mine (aside from the dropping block rewards). The reward is just split up among all miners. Oil price rises above a certain level? Then deep sea drilling starts getting interesting. But thats an ADDITIONAL resource, not splitting up total "oil rewards". And the price does not necesarily go up just because something is rare. It goes up because there is DEMAND. And there are lot of cases were goods are being sold at a loss, remainig stock of items e.g. phones, winter/summer sale etc. Cutting losses is a normal business strategy. There is no guarantee prices will go up. Taking a loss and reinvesting in more profitable ventures is common.
Yes but not when you create a currency! Explain me please one thing: Why if the FED would stop printing money there would be a huge increase in the price of dollar? Did the demand for a dollar change? No! Did the dollar become more scarce than other currencies? Yes! So why are they still printing? |
|
|
|
|
You forget that the less suply there is. The more value something has.
By the way. It is the exact same mechanism that will eventualy happen to Oil. The price of oil goes higher the less available suply is on earth... When they discover a cheap technology to mine previously unavailable oil or just a new oil suply the price drops. When there is no available oil, there potentialy can be a war for the last drop of it. Of course just therotecaly because we will just start using electric cars or whatever... and the demand will be non existent. However a single drop of an oil when there is no oil anywhere on earth will still have a value of trilions of dollars even though there is no demand for it.
The demand to obtain something arises not from the neccesity to have but from the scaresity!
Another interesting fact i deducted from cryptocurrency behavior is that it dosent matter what currency you mine. Its something like having one hundread dolar bill (Bitcoin) and 1 dollar bill (LTC for example). That is the main value difference between coins right now. However all actively mined cryptos will gain value in time as there will be more and more competitors to fight for each one of them and more energy required as they progress to be mined out.
What i forecast is that if any crypto currency is mined out it will keep its value (The value that it gained during the mining period) and will just keep increasing its value against any other fiat currency due to fiat currency inflative nature.
I also forecast that rasing value of any cryptocurrency by the act of mining gives value to all other cryptocurrencies (also BTC). In other words: Whatever you mine it will increase the value of that cryptocurrency and all other cryptos vs all fiat currencies on the planet.
I dont know however how will behave the competition on coins vs each other. Is it possible that one crypto that has 50% market value will drop and some diferent currency will get ahead? What are your opinions guys?
|
|
|
|
|
