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summer where? Bitcoin is a lot international - for me summer is weeks away.....I cant see diff being that high in a few weeks  To clarify, around June-July 2013. |
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Lets look at it from a different angle... from a quick count of FPGA singles orders that were tracked here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=77796.0There appears to be 568. Now no one in his right mind would pass up the chance to upgrade those singles to ASICs. Either they will sell them to someone who intends to upgrade them or buy the upgrade themselves. The upgrade opportunity ends in March 2013 I believe. So what portion of FPGA singles are on that list? 10%? 50%? 90%? So that portion of singles which have been tracked represents future hashing ability of 60 Ghash each. 568*60 Ghash = 34.08 Thash What portion of all FPGA singles are tracked? 90%? = 37 Thash minimum network growth from BFL FPGA single upgrades alone 50%? = 68 Thash minimum network growth from BFL FPGA single upgrades alone 10%? = 340 Thash minimum network growth from BFL FPGA single upgrades alone In addition, we've got mini-rig upgrades, flat out purchases, people just jumping in with a jally that never thought of mining before. The new SC single "lite" that is planned at 30 Ghash plus 4 or 5 other manufacturers filling up their preorder queues right now. |
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Yeah, that's not quite likely. I alone have put in dozens of fake orders alone to test out different combinations of equipment. Turns out there are plenty of people out there like yourself that think I actually ordered all of them just because the order number incremented by 12.
A single SC minirig order easily absorbs your fake/unpaid orders while still boosting the average order size. Look at the stats here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=89685.0227 tracked orders 225 Jalapeno SC 231 Single SC 21 Mini Rig SC Total Hashrate on order from tracked "valid" orders: 46.3725 Thash That's 200 Ghash per valid order. Do you think fake orders exceed real orders enough to bring that average down below 60 Ghash? Assuming the average stays the same for unreported orders (which is a huge assumption I admit) and assuming half of all orders are fake, that means with 7678 orders in the pipeline, at 100 Ghash per order due to half being fake... there is 767.8 Thash just from one payment option from just one manufacturer. Edit: Also note that this means the future network hashrate is growing at 4-5 Thash per day right now from this one order pipeline. So as BFL ramps up production and catches up to all these preorders we might see a very fast explosion in network speed coming over a timeframe of just a few months. Placing an order for hardware right now means once you receive it the network speed may very well exceed 1 Phash. Worst case scenario profitability calculations should take these possible factors into account. |
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This is mostly for my own amusement. Bump this to tell me how wrong or right I was when summer arrives  So..you're saying a 33x increase by summer? That would require a network hashrate of 726TH/s. Let's take BFL's current preorder rate of 31TH/s...let's say double that for people that haven't put in their orders on the forum. So now 62TH/s. Meh, let's double it again and assume that the other ASIC companies out there have just as many preorders combined to make a similar rate. Now we're up to 124TH/s. This 124TH/s is going to be our base value for Q1 2013...you're predicting that the number of total orders (and overall devices in the wild) would increase 5.85 times within the next 6 months of Q1. The only way that would happen is if the following are met: 1) ASIC devices not only meet their predicted specs, but some exceed them 2) ASIC devices become extremely cheap 3) USD/BTC values skyrocket to new highs and stabilize up there Only if all three of those conditions are met do I think the difficulty would reach that high...mainly since everyone and their grandma who even heard about bitcoin in passing would be trying to make some easy money with cheap ASIC devices. I think we'll be in the PH/s range sometime next summer. BFL's bitpay order numbers are rising at ~81.5 per day. Assuming the orders average out to ~60 Ghash per order (which I don't think is too far off base with their current released specs, since there are multiple claimed SC rig orders, and orders of 6+ singles for one order number) that's ~5 Thash network growth per day just from BFL. Granted, many of those orders are probably not completed & paid for, but that is just the BitPay payment method we're looking at. People can also order through PayPal & Bank Wire. Then you have 4-5 competitors releasing ASIC products as well. We've already seen a bit of competition driving the $/Ghash down, I think we'll see much more of that in the coming months. Some people have claimed that the chips can be produced for less than $1 per Ghash. If that is the case, I don't see how we won't have a multi-petahash network speed next year. Of course this argument goes out the window if no one delivers on spec, but it will be interesting times for miners either way. With the reward halving and coming ASIC price wars we might see first gen ASIC miners with high electricity rates priced out of the market sometime in 2013. |
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This is mostly for my own amusement. Bump this to tell me how wrong or right I was when summer arrives |
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For a 1200+ word short story, I'll do it for about .79 BTC. Sound fair? You can pay me when I am done and if you like it. : ) I'll get to work once I get the okay.
The story will take no more than a week.
If it blows me away, will you be willing to expand it into a novel for an additional fee? I'd be interested to read it .79 BTC it is! Feel free to post the results in this thread for everyone to enjoy. PM me to bring my attention to it once you're done along with a payment address. Thanks |
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How much for a short story involving a bitcoin pirate in his quest to reclaim his lost booty? If nothing else, it may help provide some closure for some of the recent open-ended drama.
Preferably with some cyberpunk elements thrown in...
In fact, make it a universe with mashed up elements from Snow Crash, Accelerando, & The Metamorphosis of Prime Intellect with bitcoin being a central thread tying the different storylines together. Definitely want some deep character development on our pirate, along with a satisfying end to his problematic situation.
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I'm not even going to pretend to understand all the features & possibilities that Open Transactions offers. I read a bit about it and felt like I should take the short bus from now on. Baskets here, nyms there, Chaumian something or other... it frankly left my head swimming and I put it on my list of things to look into when I had more free time (and possibly a brain upgrade) to try and wrap my head around it. But that doesn't stop me from realizing that OT is very powerful and can become extremely useful in the future. So to claim this bounty we need you to provide an easy to use, open source, cross-platform client. Something my grandma (who thinks firefox is "the google", and "internets" her emails to me) would be able to use. FellowTraveler has stated that the API is high-level & easy to use, so anyone making a client really only needs to worry about the display layer. He recommends using C++ or Java since those are the best tested. I simply haven't dug into OT enough to adequately make such judgements, so I will defer to FellowTraveler in this regard. If he says you have created such a client I will make good on my portion of the bounty.
Devs and testers are available in #opentransactions on FreeNode You can read more about OT here: https://github.com/FellowTraveler/Open-Transactions/wikiBOUNTIES ------------- | Obsi | - | 100 BTC | | FellowTraveler | - | 80 BTC | | da2ce7 | - | some BTC | | Donations | - | 5.2505 BTC |
Donations to further fund this bounty may be sent to 1JbgqTVjfrapGQCCup3eZBD69zshoSouKU |
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You should backup your important files regularly. If your wallet.dat backup is too old, you may end up missing transactions to new addresses.
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After seeing PatrickHarnett's thread about a credit rating system while having Accelerando open in the tab next to it, I got to thinking about the reputation markets Charles Stross writes about in the book. Why not try for a constantly updated efficient market model for reputation/credit ranking based on crowdsourced information? I'm still trying to wrap my head around a method that would work without allowing the negative incentivizations people may have in trying to tank someone's rep to buy in low and then wait for them to build their rep back up to sell high. People have had similar ideas before. It would be an interesting experiment IMHO, and I'd love to hear any ideas about how to make this a reality. |
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Closed out at 0.1 BTC per & delisted. Thanks
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I have to say that I'll break my pledge at this time meaning that I am not donating a satoshi until my concerns are noted. I'm extremely unhappy with the positioning of that Bitcoin donation link, it's not up there with the other donation methods. I would have NEVER found it if I wasn't explicitly looking for it. I'm sorry to be this negative but I'm genuinely pissed about this.
And how much were you pledging exactly? |
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Maybe we need a project like the Bitcoin100 for non-charity projects like this, and wikipedia, and tor. Or include them in the Bitcoin100?
I would say include them. They help the world community at large and The Internet Archive is a 501c3 non-profit according to the comments on that blog post (meaning donations are tax-deductible in the USA). I'm not sure why they haven't listed their bitcoin address on the page yet. Perhaps they are still getting up to speed on how bitcoin works, but they've already got 37 btc donated and at least a few tens more pledged in this thread. |
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Yeah. I've learned to not trust people here by default. It could be Obsi's address! Be careful until they have something official on their website.
Which is why I suggested confirming with her first. I have also left them a message to post it on the donate page, hopefully they will soon. |
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Thanks to comments left on this blog post http://blog.archive.org/2011/12/07/please-donate-to-the-internet-archive/They have set up a donation address. The address I received in an email from june (at) archive.org is 17gN64BPHtxi4mEM3qWrxdwhieUvRq8R2r I will email her to update the post with the bitcoin donation address, or you can check with her for verification. Let's show them how much we appreciate all the great work they do & that accepting bitcoin is a fantastic way to supplement their fundraising. |
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