Bitcoin Forum
June 23, 2024, 03:21:08 PM *
News: Voting for pizza day contest
 
  Home Help Search Login Register More  
  Show Posts
Pages: [1]
1  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: November 06, 2018, 04:08:12 AM
Bikefront and Trc,

Thanks gents.

Really my frustration stems from people who take his political predictions way too seriously and cite his market predictions as evidence he knows what he's talking about. Once I started really looking at what he said, I've started to really doubt everything he says. The fact he was arrested makes me think the feds really did have him on a crime.

Regardless, back to my classic charting techniques.
2  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: November 05, 2018, 10:35:50 PM
Yeah, I was referring to the September 24th post. But also note the other one's week of 10/1 turning point call, which was the high. Again though, it's hit or miss.

Yeah I'll post the Reversal signals when they come. They don't happen often but only a few trades are needed anyway.

No, I don't have the trader version. I know of someone who claims to have the trader beta version from a WEC but I didn't see it.


See, this is what annoys me. If it's not then why bother? I might as well trade on a roll of the dye or go back to using MACD lines and fibonacci traces.

But really, I'm happy to play with some cash to see if his system works and I really appreciate your help in deciphering this.
3  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: November 05, 2018, 10:02:47 PM
Beast, as Armstrong says, just follow the numbers. You don't need ANYTHING else. If a Reversal is elected, it should test the next one. He adds commentary and such but that does not mean the commentary is a trade signal. When prices close above or below the point is he gives, that is the trade signal. I already mentioned, multiple times, how Armstrong clearly called this October crash near the end of September and the closes required to enter the trade. Reversals are black and white. There is no ambiguity involved. Arrays are different but you don't need them and Armstrong is hit or miss with those anyway. Follow the numbers and you make money. I really dont get what is so hard about that particular. Reversals can be measured objectively. I already posted the max P/L  structure of what would happen if one followed his call this October.

What post was this? The only blog post that I see where he called this was this one:


Quote
The Dow for Week of 09/24/18
By: Marty ArmstrongMonday, September 24, 2018



We did not OPEN above last week's high so we may move into a low next week to retest support. This is what we mean that the consolidation is not yet over. The Breakout Channel on the Weekly level stood at 26692.21 on the bottom and the market reached intraday 26769.16. It did close slight into the channel, but that was not yet enough to signal the breakout.






On the daily level, we are trading within the Breakout Channel but have not pushed through the top. This allows plenty of room to retest the bottom-side of the channel.

We have a Daily Bearish at 26067 and a closing below that will signal a retest of support. The first Weekly Bearish lies at 25877 so this is where key support begins. AT the end of this week we also have the month-end closing. The Monthly bearish do not begin until below 24000.

One of the curiosities of the market behavior relative to our Reversals has been how critical reversals once elected reverse direction and become critical support. We have stood by and watched the 1362 level in gold stand on a monthly closing basis and 1341 on a quarterly closing come hell or high water. Now the 25800 in the Dow may be critical in general as support. If we tend to retest that area yet hold into year-end, then we could be creating a platform for a Vertical Market. That is not yet confirmed. Just keep this in mind and observing the remainder of the year.\

For month end close this Friday, we see support moving into October forming at the 25500-25000 level. Closing resistance will stand 26620. A closing ABOVE that may signal a rally into November.

Keep in mind that while we have craziness going on in Washington with the Deep State Coup slowly becoming exposed, the insanity in Europe is not to be ignored. We also have the Democrats in the USA secretly advocating war against Russia behind the curtain as retribution for Hillary's emails. Keep in mind this is very much like being blamed for coming home early to catch a thief in your home and then he blames you for returning early.

Today, we have support at the 26315 level and we are trading at 26584 at the time of this post. A close below 26519 today will warn of a further decline tomorrow is possible. The key target in time this week  is split Wed/Thurs and this is followed by Monday Oct 1st with a Panic Cycle the next day.


Once again, the failure to open above last week's high signals a retest of support is likely.


All I see are three random outcomes with weasel words about what might happen. Not cold hard predictions.

Do you have access to his trader platform?

Just like the Farmer's Almanac, the last I checked, September and October are historically rocky times of the year for the stock market. Ironically, the "Stock Trader's Almanac claims that October months near a midterm were always seasonally rocky" https://www.marketwatch.com/story/should-investors-fear-october-a-historic-jinx-month-for-stocks-2018-09-26

I say let's do an experiment. You post the numbers for his next reversal prediction with clear instructions in plain English minus his crazy commentary and let's see if I make money. I don't want past P/L, I want a new play right now with real money as the stakes. I apologize that I am not smart enough. Please spoon feed me in the ways of this master because I really truly want to believe in his process!

Because if it is accurate, then there needs to be someone out there who can translate his ramblings into actionable advice. I'm getting sick of "following the numbers" when he's obscuring the numbers behind useless commentary.

Hopefully my disillusionment stems from my own inability to read between the lines of what he is saying. As it stands, he hides behind a lot of commentary and useless information which to me speaks volumes to me about the accuracy of what he is saying.

He should be letting the numbers speak on their own without padding each post with some useless political commentary. Yes I agree with it, no I don't want to read about it when analyzing the numbers!
4  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: November 05, 2018, 09:16:50 PM
I've been following this thread for a while now and just registered because I needed to rant on this.

Why in God's name did he decide to explain away his incorrect position by posting the DJIA closing numbers in f*cking Euros this past week?

Look at this post:

Quote
Here is the Dow Jones Industrial Index in dollars and Euro, While we have had this sell-off and everyone was touting interest rates & trade, it was really about the upcoming elections where the polls project the House will go back to the Democrats. This will only ensure further economic stagnation for the Democrats will do everything in their power to undermine Trump just so they can win back the Presidency in 2020. This enbittered style of politics is just divisive and ensures that the economy will only get worse.

Nonetheless, the market bounced with the Directional Change as it should have. However, the capital flows have swung again. While they turned negative at the top fearing the US elections, the loss of Merkel's CDU and her stepping down as party leader is the prelude to Merkel going out the door. We could even see this develop as soon as December.

Now look at the Dow in Euro compared to dollars. When the dollar perspective looks like a crash, the Euro perspective should a minor correction and support. The question is not how crazy things get in the USA, but how out of the mind things become in Europe in the aftermath of Merkel. Just look at the two charts with a simple uptrend line from the same point, What a difference a currency makes.

WTF?! This makes no bloody sense. You're telling me that I need to start looking at different indices in varying foreign currencies to understand his BS? His stupid trading platform even was calling for a "Waterfall Event"and now it says "Brief Pause". What the hell does that mean?

Marty seriously needs to start using spellcheck.

Someone out there needs to make a counter blog where they post Marty's predictions with a screenshot of the blog post. Then when it doesn't come true, flame the heck out of him for his fake crap.

I think this is more of a longer term comment as he says, "we could even see this develop as a soon as December". I think what he is saying here is that there is not a complete meltdown but just a correction which does not mean there will be a new high tomorrow. The weekly array and the elected reversal still point to a low for this week and tomorrow is the ideal turning point. I donīt think he is trying to explain away position, he is trying to point out that there is no sign of a complete meltdown and that we are still in a staging or consolidation phase.

I do agree that he is not clear and i am always going back to re-read his comments to figure out what the hell he means.

See that's what drives me nuts. He is never straight forward with a simple: "The market will move to x price here."

It's always "If the dow closes at 25322 then we are electing the weekly bullish. If the dow exceeds 27432 then the bull market will extend into 2020. However if the dow closes below 21375 then we will be in a protracted beer market electing our reversals."

*Dow closes at 25304*

Marty says, "Ah yes, right on target with our arrays and the directional change which we elected. This means the dow will be slightly bullish heading into December blah blah blah".

I used to be a believer, but the more and more I look at it I'm starting to see the cracks in his process. He's the financial equivalent of the farmer's almanac. He'll never give you an exact outcome, but a range and then claim success.

When in reality, he's just really good at writing astrology level financial price movement predictions that are self actualizing.

The fact that people here are trying to decipher his messages for 233 odd pages is a good thing and it has helped me in coming to my own conclusions. He's a good trader, but I would take his writings more seriously if he stopped sniffing his own farts and would be honest about his incorrect calls (which he never is).

I have the same queries as you based on the time frame of the rallies in a bear market..hindsight will help us test our hypothesis...

I also asked Erwin about Socrates reversal numbers.. I asked are the reversals quoted the 'Major' ones or just the 'next in line' - and he confirmed the written Reversals on the Investor level are the 'next in line'.
Yes it makes it harder when you don't have all the Reversals to hand to see gaps etc, but once the Trader Level comes live, he confirmed that you will be able to subscribe to just one instrument if you wish (i.e. Gold Futures) and get the all the reversals and arrays for just that.  That would be cheaper than paying the much higher subscription rate that gives full access to everything.


And here's the other annoyance of mine: why hasn't he released the full trading version yet? He was hyping that thing hard claiming it will be ready in 2014 or 2015 by the end of Q4. Q4 came and went and the announcement of it being ready just magically disappeared. I work in software dev and the fact that it has taken him this long makes me wonder, is it really not ready or is he just using this as a cherry to encourage people to shell out several thousands of dollars for his WEC meet ups?
5  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: November 05, 2018, 08:38:53 PM
I've been following this thread for a while now and just registered because I needed to rant on this.

Why in God's name did he decide to explain away his incorrect position by posting the DJIA closing numbers in f*cking Euros this past week?

Look at this post:

Quote
Here is the Dow Jones Industrial Index in dollars and Euro, While we have had this sell-off and everyone was touting interest rates & trade, it was really about the upcoming elections where the polls project the House will go back to the Democrats. This will only ensure further economic stagnation for the Democrats will do everything in their power to undermine Trump just so they can win back the Presidency in 2020. This enbittered style of politics is just divisive and ensures that the economy will only get worse.

Nonetheless, the market bounced with the Directional Change as it should have. However, the capital flows have swung again. While they turned negative at the top fearing the US elections, the loss of Merkel's CDU and her stepping down as party leader is the prelude to Merkel going out the door. We could even see this develop as soon as December.

Now look at the Dow in Euro compared to dollars. When the dollar perspective looks like a crash, the Euro perspective should a minor correction and support. The question is not how crazy things get in the USA, but how out of the mind things become in Europe in the aftermath of Merkel. Just look at the two charts with a simple uptrend line from the same point, What a difference a currency makes.

WTF?! This makes no bloody sense. You're telling me that I need to start looking at different indices in varying foreign currencies to understand his BS? His stupid trading platform even was calling for a "Waterfall Event"and now it says "Brief Pause". What the hell does that mean?

Marty seriously needs to start using spellcheck.

Someone out there needs to make a counter blog where they post Marty's predictions with a screenshot of the blog post. Then when it doesn't come true, flame the heck out of him for his fake crap.
Pages: [1]
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!