EUR/USD trades around 1.1720–1.1730 early Friday. The market is digesting the continuation of the U.S. federal agencies’ shutdown, which delays official macro data releases. Private labor-market gauges for September point to slower hiring, yet overall demand for the dollar remains supported: investors retain interest in the U.S. currency amid uncertainty over the budget and the timing of the next Federal Reserve rate cut. In this mix of factors, the euro is losing upside momentum and short-lived rallies tend to fade.


In the euro area, participants track consumer prices and activity estimates—soft inflation and business readings offer little reason to expect faster GDP growth in the autumn. Against this backdrop, the scope for euro appreciation looks limited: the U.S.–Germany yield gap remains notable, while the ECB’s communication is cautious regarding further policy loosening, with the central bank preferring to wait for a steady cooling in prices without undermining demand.

On the U.S. side, rate expectations are the key lever: futures price in a chance of a cut already in October and a continued path toward looser policy by year-end. However, the lack of official publications during the budget pause shifts attention to alternative indicators and Fed commentary, which together support defensive demand for the dollar and keep EURUSD below recent September highs.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1725, SL 1.1755, TP 1.1660

The yen is supported by safe-haven demand and expectations of a firmer Bank of Japan stance on borrowing costs by the end of the month. Against this backdrop, the pair has been posting local lows below 147, and the decline in U.S. yields narrows the rate differential, making short positions in USDJPY fundamentally justified.


An additional factor pressuring the dollar is the risk surrounding the functioning of the U.S. government and the high probability of a Fed rate cut in October. These circumstances reduce the premium for holding the dollar and encourage a partial reassessment of exchange-rate expectations in favor of the yen.

The traditional support factor for JPY also persists—flows into “safe havens” during periods of political uncertainty in the United States. Taken together, this forms the basis for further declines in USDJPY, provided there are no sharp verbal interventions from the Japanese authorities.

Trading recommendation: SELL 147.20, SL 147.40, TP 146.50

Recent US job vacancy data showed that the labor market is slowing down, but in August, the number of vacancies rose from 7.21 million to 7.23 million. At the same time, the hiring rate fell to 3.2%, the lowest since June 2024, and the number of layoffs remained low.


The GBP/USD pair strengthened as the pound sterling (GBP) received support after the release of stronger UK gross domestic product (GDP) data for the second quarter on Tuesday. The data showed that the UK economy grew by 1.4% year-on-year, exceeding the preliminary figure of 1.2%. Quarterly GDP growth remained at the preliminary estimate of 0.3%.

However, the British pound may come under pressure as Bank of England (BoE) Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden has advocated for lower rates amid growing concerns about the UK labor market. Ramsden also expressed confidence that inflationary pressures would ease, noting that current interest rates remain restrictive.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3495, SL 1.3415, TP 1.3685

Since the start of 2025, gold (XAUUSD) has been on a strong upward trend, gaining around $1,200 per ounce (+45%). By September 30, prices surged to an all-time high of $3,867 per ounce. This momentum is setting ambitious price targets and keeping the metal near historic levels. Amid shifting rate expectations and rising demand for safe-haven assets, platinum (XPTUSD) is also on the rise, holding above key levels and signaling renewed investor interest in precious metals.



Back in April, FreshForex analysts predicted gold would hit $4,000 per ounce — at the time, the price had just broken above $3,300. Less than six months later, gold has repeatedly set new all-time highs!

4 key drivers of the rally:

• A dovish Fed and weaker USD. The market is pricing in more rate cuts — lowering the opportunity cost of holding gold. A softer dollar also makes the metal more attractive to international buyers.
• Demand for safe havens. Rising global uncertainty (including risks of a U.S. government shutdown) is pushing capital into traditional shelters like gold — and records tend to be set during such events.
• Central bank buying. For the third year in a row, official sector demand remains strong — especially from emerging market regulators — cushioning pullbacks and creating a firm price floor.
• ETF inflows. Gold-backed exchange-traded funds are accumulating reserves, boosting investment demand and locking in higher price levels.

As financial conditions ease, uncertainty stays high, and institutional demand holds strong, gold remains a key asset for conservative strategies. While short-term corrections are possible, the upward trend is likely to continue unless core fundamentals reverse. FreshForex analysts believe the $4,000 mark will be crossed soon, and prices could reach $4,200 per ounce by year-end!

The euro is strengthening against the dollar as the U.S. currency softens on risks of a federal government shutdown and rising expectations that monetary policy in the United States could ease further by year-end. Markets are contemplating additional steps to support the economy, which reduces the dollar’s appeal and supports demand for currencies with a more neutral risk profile, including the euro. An additional tailwind is the acceleration in gold prices as a sign of heightened demand for safe assets.


In Europe, attention is centered on preliminary inflation readings in key euro area countries, which matter for the ECB’s policy path. With neutral signals from the ECB, the short-term balance of risks tilts toward the euro due to external drivers: uncertainty around the U.S. budget process and the potential delay of some statistical reports that traditionally support the dollar.

Stabilizing U.S. Treasury yields alongside a growing probability of easier Federal Reserve policy keeps pressure on the dollar. Against this backdrop, EURUSD holds above 1.1700, reflecting a reallocation of flows in favor of the euro as the premium for dollar liquidity ebbs.

Trade recommendation: BUY 1.1725, SL 1.1695, TP 1.1795

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The key theme for USDJPY today is Tokyo inflation, which the market often treats as an early indicator of Japan’s nationwide CPI. More persistent price growth increases the likelihood that the Bank of Japan will maintain a cautious readiness for gradual normalization, while the authorities keep a close watch on the yen’s exchange rate. Against this backdrop, investors’ propensity to take profit on long USDJPY positions is rising.


At the same time, dollar moves are driven by U.S. headlines: at the start of the week, some participants hedge the risk of data delays amid budget uncertainty, which periodically softens the USD and supports the yen. If Tokyo’s inflation profile surprises to the upside, the theme of a “real” strengthening of the yen via JGB yields and BoJ policy expectations will gain additional traction.

Near the 149.00 area, the short-term risk/reward favors a partial pullback in the pair: a possible pause in the dollar’s rise combined with CPI-sensitive expectations in Japan creates a window for a correction toward 148.00.

Trading recommendation: SELL 149.00, SL 149.20, TP 148.10

Sterling is under pressure from a mix of external and domestic factors. Externally, the dollar is firming on the back of fresh US statistics and higher Treasury yields. Domestically, UK fiscal risk is in focus: investors are cautious around gilts and upcoming budget decisions, limiting demand for the pound and increasing the pair’s sensitivity to US releases.


UK business activity data point to a softer impulse in manufacturing and services, while real household incomes remain constrained. The Bank of England is seeking to keep inflation on track toward target and is acting carefully, avoiding signals of rapid easing—keeping borrowing costs relatively high for an economy where growth momentum is fragile. Taken together, this narrows the space for medium-term sterling strength and encourages investors to hedge via the dollar.

Demand for safe and higher-yielding dollar assets persists, while the pound stays vulnerable to surprises in fiscal headlines and long-dated yields. With neutral/strong US data, the pair typically drifts lower; in focus are the resilience of US consumer spending and the direction of inflation, which shape rate expectations for the Fed and, in turn, the dollar’s path.

Trade recommendation: SELL 1.3350, SL 1.3370, TP 1.3260

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The euro is weakening against the dollar near the 1.17–1.18 area as the U.S. currency gains support after cautious signals from the Federal Reserve about the path of policy easing. Markets still expect a limited rate reduction in the U.S. by year-end, but the scale and timing hinge on upcoming inflation and growth data. This sustains demand for the dollar as a defensive asset and caps the euro’s recovery.


Another headwind for the euro is the fragile business activity in the euro area: recent leading indicators have pointed to a slowdown in both manufacturing and services. Energy imports also remain sensitive to swings in commodity prices, adding uncertainty to the inflation outlook in the EU. As a result, yield spreads in favor of the U.S. and expectations for a firmer real policy rate continue to support the dollar.

Investors are focused on the U.S. PCE report and GDP revisions, which may confirm that core inflation remains above target while growth is strong enough to tolerate only gradual policy easing. Until new signals arrive, risk appetite is restrained and the euro remains vulnerable to episodes of dollar strength.

Trade recommendation: SELL 1.1750, SL 1.1785, TP 1.1700

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The pair has retreated from recent highs after comments by the Fed Chair and more even U.S. business indicators reduced the impulse for further dollar strength. Expectations of a gradual shift toward easier Fed policy limit the rise in U.S. yields—the key driver of USD/JPY—and open room for a downward correction in the pair.


From Japan, the Bank of Japan kept the short-term rate around 0.50% at its September meeting, with the board debating the possibility of further tightening and announcing steps to wind down parts of non-market support (ETF/REIT programs). For markets, this signals that Japan’s normalization course will continue, albeit very cautiously. Combined with fluctuations in risk appetite, this supports the yen’s role as a haven over the near term.

Risks to short positions include a jump in U.S. yields on unexpectedly strong data and any signs of delayed normalization in Japan. Even so, given the current information flow and expectations balance, the base case is trading below 148.00 with attempts to test the 147.00–147.10 area.

Trade recommendation: SELL 147.85, SL 148.35, TP 146.95

The British pound remains elevated mainly due to softer Fed expectations and general dollar weakening, not due to accelerating UK growth drivers, making it vulnerable to USD demand return on positive US statistics. Flows show that with rising US yields or CPI/PPI inflation spikes, interest in the dollar quickly increases, causing GBPUSD pullbacks from local highs. On this background, Bank of England's cautious stance and mixed UK economic dynamics increase correction chances if the dollar strengthens via global yield channels and risk appetite.


International news feeds note pound stability vs. euro and subdued EURUSD movements before key ECB decisions and US releases, indirectly confirming GBPUSD's dependence on US macro and Fed expectations. Without new hawkish signals from London or sharp UK inflation shifts, the US factor remains the dominant trigger for short-term pound/dollar dynamics. Tactical selling near 1.35 is based on likely risk premium normalization and repricing expectations favoring the dollar amid positive US inflation and employment releases.

Current cross rates via EUR and feed levels confirm GBPUSD near 1.35 in today’s session, aligning entry around 1.3510 with the fundamental "US sensitivity" picture. The risk is limited by a tight stop as dollar strength on data and yields often occurs under neutral European regulator decisions. The target near 1.3450 reflects moderate correction without trend reversal assumptions absent shock news from London.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3510, SL 1.3530, TP 1.3410.

EUR/USD continues its series of declines for the fourth consecutive session, trading around 1.1730 during Asian hours on Monday.


Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at a press conference after the meeting that growing signs of weakness in the labor market explain why officials decided it was time to cut rates after keeping them unchanged since December amid concerns about inflation caused by tariffs. The Fed's rate forecast, or so-called “dot plot,” showed that two more rate cuts are expected this year.

The EUR/USD pair also faced difficulties due to problems with the euro (EUR): last week, hundreds of thousands of people protested in major French cities, calling on President Emmanuel Macron and newly appointed Prime Minister Sébastien Lecomte to abandon the spending cuts introduced by former Prime Minister François Bayrou.

European Central Bank Governing Council member (ECB) Mario Centeno said on Friday that “the next step is likely to still be a rate cut,” adding that inflation cannot remain below 2% for too long and noting that risks to inflation remain tilted to the downside.

Trade recommendation: SELL 1.1705, SL 1.1735, TP 1.1655

The Japanese yen (JPY) remains in a disadvantageous position after data released on Friday during the Asian session showed that core consumer prices in Japan rose at their slowest pace in nine months in August. This compounds domestic political uncertainty and gives the Bank of Japan (BoJ) additional reasons to delay raising interest rates. In addition, another factor undermining the Japanese yen's position as a safe-haven currency is the general optimism in the stock markets.


However, yen bears seem reluctant to make aggressive bets and prefer to wait for the results of the Bank of Japan's two-day monetary policy meeting. Meanwhile, the US dollar (USD) is seeking to strengthen its position after a sharp recovery from its lowest level since February 2022 following the FOMC meeting, acting as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair, which reached a one-and-a-half-week high on Thursday. However, bets that the BoJ will stick to its policy normalization course and the prospect of further Fed rate cuts could limit the major currency's gains.

Trade recommendation: BUY 148.15, SL 147.65, TP 149.35

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Sterling has corrected lower after a surge on the Fed headlines: the initial bullish impulse gave way to caution ahead of today’s Bank of England decision. The consensus expects the policy rate to be kept unchanged, and together with slowing inflation and weak real income growth this leaves only limited room for further short-term appreciation of the pound.


The UK faces subdued activity and a mortgage burden that is sensitive to interest rates, so the regulator is keen to keep financial conditions stable. Markets have already partially priced a softer dollar; any more restrained BoE guidance on the path of future easing could trigger moderate profit-taking in long GBP/USD positions.

At the same time, the global backdrop after the Fed decision supported the dollar via firmer yields and softer risk appetite. Against this background, selling the pair from current levels with a tight stop-loss and a realistic target within the daily range looks tactically sound.

Trade recommendation: SELL 1.3625, SL 1.3675, TP 1.3575

The $3,500 per ounce target we wrote about at the beginning of the month has long been surpassed. Gold continues to storm new highs and has already gained nearly 7% in value since the start of the month.


According to our heatmap, a 0.68-lot trade opened at the beginning of the month could have earned up to $16,000!

What’s driving the market now:

•   Strong inflows into ETFs and “safe-haven” funds — institutional demand remains high.

•   Expectations of a Fed rate cut in the fall are boosting defensive assets.

•   A weaker dollar makes gold even more attractive for international investors.

•   Growing demand from central banks (especially in Asia) is intensifying supply shortages.

•   Geopolitical tensions are adding a “risk premium” to prices.

Analysts from FreshForex note that the market has already seen historical peaks of $3,700/oz, so the $3,750 zone remains a natural target if these drivers persist. In the medium term, UBS and ANZ have raised their forecasts: $3,800 by the end of 2025 (with potential toward ~$3,900–4,000 in 2026).

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The euro is strengthening against the dollar amid expectations that the Fed will cut rates by 25 bps today and signal a trajectory of further easing, which weakens USD support through yield differential and risk appetite channels.

The dollar fell to multi‑year lows against the euro ahead of the decision, reflecting repricing of the U.S. rate path and a likely widening divergence in expectations compared with the ECB, adding momentum to EURUSD’s upside.


Demand for longer durations in U.S. Treasuries and the expectation of a flatter yield curve after Fed easing further reduce the dollar’s appeal as a high‑yield short‑term asset, which is fundamentally supportive for the euro.

The broader market backdrop also supports the pair: in commodities markets, participants expect that a Fed rate cut will spur demand, so investors are more willing to take risk, putting extra pressure on the dollar and helping the euro recover amid improving external trade conditions.

The ECB reference rate on 16.09 stood at 1.1807, and the recent sessions’ dynamics show dollar weakness ahead of the Fed meeting, increasing the probability of continued upside bias for the euro in the short term.

Trade recommendation: BUY 1.1855, SL 1.1835, TP 1.1950

The Japanese yen (JPY) continues its sideways consolidation against the broadly weaker US dollar (USD) during Tuesday's Asian session, as traders prefer to wait for this week's key central bank events. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is set to announce the results of its two-day meeting on Wednesday, followed by an important decision from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) on Friday. Meanwhile, uncertainty over the likely timing and pace of rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, coupled with the prevailing risk-on sentiment, is acting as a drag on the safe-haven JPY.


However, any significant decline in the JPY still seems unlikely amid growing recognition that the Bank of Japan will stick to its policy normalization course. This contrasts sharply with growing bets on more aggressive easing by the Fed, which is keeping the US dollar close to its July 24 low and should help cap the USD/JPY pair. Nevertheless, fundamentals appear to favor yen bulls and suggest that the path of least resistance for the currency pair remains downward.

Trade recommendation: SELL 146.70, SL 147.90, TP 145.15