I completely agree with your points. However, it really depends on the type of crisis that hits, whether hyperinflation, recession, etc.

I think that gold will still be seen as a hedge, if a financial crisis does come. People naturally revert to gold whenever there is financial instability, which could explains why gold prices rose so much post-GFC.

But gold is just too indivisible, too inconvenient, and has a high entry bar for regular investors who want to store their wealth in a safe haven. That's why I also believe that bitcoin will be seen as a feasible alternative due to its convenience, as it is also completely independent from the traditional fiat system in times of crisis.

There might not be huge spikes in price, but its value should hold relatively well in the long run due to its limited supply and detachment from the fiat ecosystem.

Some time between the next halvening (May 2020) & the year 2020 because it’s what bitcoin does hostorically.

I hope to see that but in my opinion we should not look at the past of bitcoin. In 2014 we had mostly nerds without speculation knowledge just enjoing having bitcoin. Now we have lots of high class speculants. Price will act different because different types of investors are  holding bitcoin. We are on unknown waters.

Real estate is tied so closely with economic health though. With housing prices endlessly rising over the same period that wages are stagnating and growth is topping out, we have to expect a crash to heavily affect real estate, just like 2008. In fact, I think stocks and real estate will suffer the most.

When everyone is losing money (through investments, loss of business, layoffs) the last place people invest money is illiquid assets like houses and multi-unit complexes in an overinflated market that's finally tipping over.

Yeah, inflation does depend on those things.  In the US where I live, and for the things I buy, inflation is nowhere near 7-10%.  Inflation hits some goods & services more so than others, and the data the US government gives is based on a "basket of goods" if I'm not mistaken, and it certainly doesn't measure everything that's bought or sold.

Anyway, if your investment doesn't at least keep up with inflation then you're obviously losing money.  One of the facts that precious metals hucksters keep repeating over and over is that a silver quarter can still buy a gallon of gas and therefore silver is the best hedge against inflation.  Do I believe that?  Absolutely not, though I don't think it's a horrible idea to buy some metals right now.  They've taken a serious beating since 2011 and may go up again if any sort of crisis hits.

Bitcoin, though?  Come on, I couldn't think of a worse inflation hedge, even at the price it's selling for right now.  Why?  Because any safe-haven, inflation-hedging asset should not be as volatile and prone to bubbles and crashes like bitcoin is.  It may be an excellent way for a trader to make money from, assuming that the price appreciates in the long- or short-term, but there's no way I'd feel safe using it as a hedge.  It's around $3400 as I write this, and it could drop to $1000 by tomorrow morning for all I know.  There's too much uncertainty and too much volatility, and traditional inflation hedges lack those two features. 

Even though I don't buy into the propaganda the gold & silver permabulls keep promulgating, I agree with their point that neither metal is going to drop to zero, since both have actual real-world uses.  Bitcoin probably won't drop to zero, but there's more of a chance of it doing so than metals--or even stocks with solid companies behind them for that matter. 

I'm hoping that this discussion turns out to be pointless and that we're not staring down a global economic crisis, but I do feel the bad vibes that are going around and I do get the feeling that something bad is going to happen.  I can already see some of it in the stock market, though I've been expecting a major correction for quite some time now.  For bitcoin, I'm hoping 2019 turns out to be a better year than this one.

You are asking for input that no one here can provide. It's all up to you to take that risk, because even if we all largely agree that x asset will be doing fine during difficult times, it may still dump just as hard as the rest of the assets.

It wouldn't surprise me if we end up going through a time where assets dumps simultaneously and there is no safe haven at all. There is not much you can do to weapon yourself against that.

My personal hedge is strictly Bitcoin. I accept it completely if it ends up doing the opposite of what I expect it to do during difficult economic times. Maybe that real estate can be added to that later on, but who knows.

When a huge global financial crisis happens it just happens to everyone, there is absolutely no way of running from it.

Stocks will fall, crypto will fall, gold will fall, house value will fall. There will be nothing that will profit you at the time of an economical crisis, you will lose money no matter what you are invested into. There is no running away from this at all. Hence there is absolutely no way of profiting neither.

Bitcoin has existed only during a time when the overall markets were very bullish. Real estate, stocks, gold, and others have been in raging bull market ever since the recovery from the 2008 crash.

That's why I think it's dangerous to assume Bitcoin won't be affected by global market trends or financial crises. It's never experienced a major global downturn before.

there is no ultimate hedge. in a serious market contraction, everything will crash. on top of that, debt monetization has pumped all markets---even gold and bitcoin have benefited from it.

a global crash definitely means a risk-off investment cycle. this early in its life, bitcoin is still considered a high-risk/high-reward investment, so money would likely flow out of the bitcoin markets and into safer havens.

i don't think there is any ultimate hedge in case of  a global financial crisis. and bitcoin is not yet ready for that kind of adoption although it has a lot of potential to be one. so i'd say bitcoin would be a pretty good choice but it can't solve all the problems.


"bitcoin core" is the name of a full node/wallet not the coin itself. the coin is simply called "bitcoin".

This video can give you an idea.

Escaping the Global Banking Cartel - Andreas Antonopoulos

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LgI0liAee4s&t=1s