0.2 in this case could of worked but there was a another daily bullish not that far away. You could of bought back against the nearest support level  in this case the pivot point at 61.18  Directional changes usually mean that whatever direction we are in should reverse and back to back directional changes often produce spike highs and lows so the 14th produced a high the 15th and its directional change pointed to a low.

 Regarding the array the most significant turning points that often unfold as main cyclical events tend to be when directional change targets align with main turning points on the top line of the array.

There was an easy day trade setup on crude oil for the 14th today where market tested its daily bullish reversal(62.1) you could of shorted the market at that point knowing that the array had a directional change the very next day. As long as the market stayed below that resistance level the risk was to the downside. Reversals are simply key areas of support and resistance and should be traded as such.

IF you trade elected reversals only you need to know that the expected move should occur within 1 to 3 time units so we had previously in the EUR/USD 3 weekly bearish reversals that were elected by just a few ticks the market then rallied for the next 2 weeks testing its weekly bullish and then on the 3rd week started moving lower towards the next weekly bearish, the array can often warn of such an event. So let those elected weekly bearish reversals provide resistance and if the market moves above them the risk is then to the upside. 

I mean first on the basis of if a given reversal is elected

Yes exactly seeing the market penetrate a reversal and close above usually indicates a move in the opposite direction. directional changes tend to be strong moves in a certain direction so the Dow really needed to at least elect that minor to suggest it goes down further.  Do not expect absolute precision with an index regarding the reversals the Dow did come close to its next major daily bearish. At that time the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were testing their major daily bearish reversals with many more reversals just below indicating strong levels of support.

 
It really is the reversal system first, then the array and last is the GMW which is usually wrong especially when trading the reversals in reverse. The GMW is only pattern recognition nothing more.  With the GMW it is more accurate on the longer term trends than the shorter term so monthly and up.

elected Reversals can still provide support or resistance at times but have ultimately have lost their ability to provide a buy or sell signal so essentially they are done once elected.

 We came close to the next bullish reversal 26535 on the Dow so I suspect the directional change may be to the downside but cannot be sure this time since due to a major daily bullish reversal being elected.

key reversal points by Armstrong
"Most of the time when one level is penetrated, the market price activity will continue to the next available Reversal."
"If you penetrate a reversal and then FAIL to elect it, this typically signal a move back in the opposite direction."

Minor reversals are certainly valid but can be overpowered by majors. the Dow tested and penetrated its minor daily bearish reversal yesterday at 26212 and came close to the next major bearish but did not elect it and the array showed a directional change today(Dow,Nasdaq) the Nasdaq and S&P 500 came close to their daily bearish reversals but did not elect them so there was only one direction the market could go and that was up.

I find that directional changes are very accurate and usually indicates that whatever direction we are in should reverse but this will be confirmed/denied by the reversals. we had a directional change in gold, silver and crude today where crude on Thursday elected 4 bearish reversals(minors) penetrated the 5th and closed right on it which is not an election confirming the directional change was to the upside. Silver penetrated its 4th daily
 bearish reversal(minor) on Thursday and tested the 5th daily bearish reversal but for the close electing none indicating the directional change was to the upside.

 If there are big gaps between reversals major to minor those levels of support and resistance tend to be quite strong and you can buy against them with more confidence.


 we have a directional change on the Dow and the S&P 500 for Monday the 6th

Yes daily reversals are also very accurate only the market will often gravitate towards the weekly/monthly reversals going into the end of a given week or month.  If you want to day trade then the daily reversals work best since the expected move should occur within 1 to 3 days.. Usually the very next day.  If the market closes well above or below a elected reversal it will often retest it before moving in the expected direction.

The GMW can be used to alert you to potential big moves.   regarding the array "NORMALLY one turning point is followed by the OPPOSITE event on the next." its best to start from the monthly and work your way down to the daily, this includes the reversals

those numbers are all technical numbers nothing based on the reversal
System, that pdf is a joke actually trying to use the breakout-line as hard evidence what a disgrace.

Of course Armstrong has been wrong countless of times but that was simply his opinion and him speculating on what he thought might happen at that time which is of course is subject to change. The reversal system has never been wrong and if you knew anything that would be your focus.

If you think that report has any credibility you have failed to understand how this model is even supposed to be used. Armstrong said it himself ultimately my opinion means nothing, JUST PLAY IT BY THE NUMBERS

2015.75 was indeed very significant for many reasons including that fact that
 Quote "Russia invaded Syria on the very day of the Economic Confidence Model, it signaled that Syria would be a focal point of this wave" "Russia gave the U.S. one hour notice before they began bombing both ISIS and rebels who were seeking to overthrow the Syrian government. It is extremely curious that this is beginning precisely on the day of the ECM. Will this prove to be the start of an international war?"


@whizzledog if its a double it will say "Dbi" which is very rare

@bikefront

 Day trading is a full time job, position trading always makes more money and just think how much you must pay in fees.  

 the longer term rarely undergoes cycle inversions .Longer term forecasting is much easier to predict just look at how accurate the ECM has been. For example the 1989.95 ECM turning point pinpointed the Nikkei high that December. the collapse into 1994.25 marked the precise day of the low for the S&P 500. the 2007.15 turning point called the high in Nikkei, Dow Jones, S&P 500. The real estate market lined up perfectly with the 2007.15 turning point and that was indicating the CONCENTRATION OF CAPITAL.

Understanding the ECM(business cycle)  is critical and is the key to moving with the overall trend, since many markets will hit important highs or lows at the top/bottom of the ECM.  
Quote Armstrong
"Money(capital) migrates like a herd of wild animals(it runs together in trends and it will suddenly panic and change direction) - such as the bubble in Tokyo in 1989.95. This is the essence of the ECM.  the model(ECM) is not  based upon any individual market. It is the model that tracks  ebbs and flows of capital on a global scale. The interesting aspect of this model is that each and every market has its own model. Only when it lines up with the model(ECM) does this suggest that a particular market is going to be the target of capital flows."

with the ECM "we are able to see where the boom and bust will take place by determining which market sector aligns with the major turning points. Of course the 1987 crash(Dow) bottomed to the day with the ECM confirming that was the low. The same took place in 1994 where the U.S. share market bottomed right to the day, once again confirming this was an important low. Therefore, it has been the alignment of the individual market with the major ECM global frequency that determines the outcomes".
("these turning points are important even when not operating precisely to the day for each market.")


So the low of this ECM wave in January  2020 means we are facing a TURNING POINT. This is where we could see an important low in gold form potentially just under 1000.
There will be big opportunities as the ECM bottoms in January 2020 with potential entry points to hold for years at least until the peak of that wave in 2024.
 
I noted some of martins predictions.
"It certainly looks like we are headed to a commodity boom between 2020 and 2024.(08/29/2018)
"Our computer is projecting a very serious decline in sunspot activity. This will be the backdrop to the rise in agricultural prices we see between 2020 and 2024. "

If it does then that could be a good place to short the market. But It can still go against you due to a Cycle Inversion or a Cycle Cancellation. Elected reversals would give you a clear buy or sell signal and you can trade those with the most confidence.

@bikefront
It can be used as a confirmation tool with the reversals but have noticed it being wrong a number of times but usually on the indices.
We did elect 2 daily bullish reversals for Crude Oil on the 22nd so that implied a bounce.


The reversal system will say "Dbi" next to the number if that reversal is in fact a double which is very rare I have only seen it once before and never seen a triple.

We have a weekly bearish at 26301.80 and a weekly bullish at 26769.19, you will know the direction once we start to elect weekly bullish or bearish reversals. You don't have the pro service so you will forever remain in the dark.

The reversals tell you the direction but only if they are elected on a closing basis, that gives you an ACTUAL BUY/SELL SIGNAL.  You need to think before you post again this is getting embarrassing. Why do you keep saying if Armstrong predicted or If Armstrong does give direction when Socrates (AI) is the one making all the forecasts?

@MA_talk

"But I know for sure he did NOT call 2019 Jan. " Armstrong may not have called it but
 the Array on ask-socrates certainty called January 2019 as a panic cycle. Not sure how you can be sure of anything since you have not gone through all the private blog posts which go back to about 2016 where Martin gives specific numbers(reversals) you could of traded on. That gives you a complete track record for the last 3 years all the evidence you need is there or are you afraid of what you may find?

The array is not going to pick up every panic cycle just indicate where there is a high probability of one occurring.
You would never trade based on a panic cycle you only trade on the reversals. If you want to disprove Armstrong the only thing you should be talking about is the reversal system because that gives you specific buy or sell signals which you have claimed Armstrong's system does not do.


"because Armstrong never tells you the direction of the market" You really are digging your own grave here… I don't think I can even take you seriously after making such an absurd statement.

"If anyone can post arrays + reversals for the daily or weekly intervals, we can collect a lot more data and analyse Armstrong's models." You have 3 years' worth of private blog posts and Armstrong has posted the reversals and array's countless of times during that period. Ask-Socrates only launched in 2016 (https://ask-socrates.com)

@footlong24seven

If you had read models and methodologies(seminar edition)
https://s3.amazonaws.com/armstrongeconomics-wp/2012/05/manual-models.pdf
 you would know Fibonacci fails to provide definitive targets. So of course your price targets are way way off, all the resistance currently lies at the 26700 level.
You want to call people charlatans but have nothing to back it up.
(I am not claiming to my some special knowledge I am simply following the reversal system in conjunction with the array.)


 Main resistance on the Dow stands at the next weekly bullish 26769.17 which should cap the market. we have the next daily bullish at 26709.95. lets see how well your Fibonacci fan projections stand up against the reversal system.

I believe that notion is correct because the
The Reversal System works best under extreme volatility — the greater the panic, the higher the accuracy.  So those reversals are offering key areas of support and resistance within any given market.
 if a major reversal is generated and elected within 3 months the degree of panic and volatility will be much greater but this does not happen very often. The longer a reversal takes to be elected the lower degree of volatility thereafter.


 Etoimene,
A Cycle Inversion simply means that what should have declined flips and inverts into a rally. The turning points are the same, they simply produce successive highs. And the same is true in reverse.
A cycle inversion would have become possible if we exceeded the January high in Feb intraday but would have ultimately been confirmed if we closed February above the close for the month of January.

See link below on how to detect whether a cycle inversion is happening or not
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/understanding-cycles/defining-a-cycle-inversion/

"corrections are confined to a maximum of 3 timing intervals."
This is exactly what happened on the Dow where January was a turning point and the correction was over by April(unit of 3) where we hit an intraday low.
"A failure to make new highs and a penetration of the February low AFTER April would imply a correction moving into probably July."(unit of 6) Which would of indicated a change in trend and not a mere reaction.

 


This is The Golden Rule of Reactions
"That fundamental principle is where do we draw the line between a change in trend and a mere reaction. That line is drawn in units of 2 to 3 maximum"
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/the-golden-rule-of-reactions/

 
"Bullish and bearish markets have empirical nominal durations that last specific time units (days, weeks, months, years):  Bullish: 7-11-14-21 time units  Bearish: 2-3-5-6-10-12-18 time units "

 In order to understand more about cyclical analysis I recommend you read one of the most important and revealing writings by Armstrong in my opinion "It's Just Time" where Armstrong goes into great detail.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/its-just-time-martin-armstrong.pdf

Bikefront Quote "I agree that the low was called near perfectly, and I traded that one, but remember that the call for a high in February was also made and it didn't pan out. "

 February was in fact a turning point because we did form a temporary high with a retest of support. Armstrong said on his private blog  on Thursday 28 Feb

 " As suspected, the Dow elected two Weekly Bullish Reversals last week which gave us the pop. We did not elect the 4th and the market pulled back to avoid the Monthly Bullish Reversal. This is all consistent with the view that we are still consolidating and February can remain as a temporary high with a retest of support. March appear volatile so be on guard for retest of the support"

 Armstrong has explained  this.
"You don’t get time from the reversals, we are merging it with time from the standpoint of when they are elected.
The Reversals are definitive numbers, but they are separate and distinct from TIME. Reversals do not tell us WHEN they will be elected."

So you can simply wait for a given reversal to be elected without having to even watch the array since the purpose of The Forecast Array is to enable you to quickly see when the computer models are looking for ideal highs or lows in addition to important changes in trends and volatility.

 Armstrong has said the arrays are not a 100%. But they are very close. And the turning points can take place on an intraday or closing basis.
 

If you want close to 100% certainty then yes only buy or sell when a reversal has actually been elected for the close.
Quote "Generally when a reversal point is elected but the price is substantially below or above the number, the market will retest the reversal before it resumes the indicated trend. Reversals that are elected by only a few ticks offer the best indication of immediate follow-through."

The reversals will always be the deciding factor not the array. The reversals can be used in isolation but certainly not the array.

But if you want the most precision then only trade singular markets
Quote
"The metals, currencies and bonds have a high degree of precision. Market movements will bounce precisely on these specific Reversal points. Stock indexes, on the other hand, will find that absolute precision is rare.  Since the S&P is introducing a series of 500 variables into the equation, this tends to suggest that absolute precision begins to suffer with an increased number of variables"


In May it appears we have a significant turning point on the Dow and various other markets so if we test a weekly/monthly reversal most likely in the 24 000 zone you could easily trade the reversals in reverse and buy against those bearish reversals which will mean you are using both  time and the price together with the next turning point being July which should produce the opposite event.

" I'm sure Armstrong may have explained that somewhere, but since he writes so much, very often it's hard to find something unless some notes were taken."

 That’s not true all you have to  do is type into google: "panic cycle" Armstrong Economics
You can also go to his website and type in the search bar. "panic cycle" and you be able to read just about everything he ever said about it.


In summary
70% of the time a panic cycle is an outside reversal or capitulation
30% of the time a panic cycle is a fast one way move.

"The Panic Cycle can also be a big move in one direction, but they are often outside reversals meaning that they can exceed the previous high and then penetrate the previous low"

 So for example The month of February 2019 was a panic cycle on the Dow since it was a big move in one direction. I recall many posts of you saying the month of Feb was not a panic cycle…


"The major Cycle of Political Change appears to be the duration of 224 years In which there are 26 periods of 8.615 years."
Source(http://s3.amazonaws.com/armstrongeconomics-wp/2012/03/how-all-systems-can-collapse-overnight-709.pdf)

 Just not so sure about your calculation on  the 26 year frequency other than it is 8.6 x 3 = 25.8

Its right at the end...

"The election of a Reversal normally indicates that the expected high or low that should unfold could take place in as short a time span as 1 to 3 units of time, be it daily, weekly, monthly or quarterly. Therefore, a low might develop the very next day following the election of a Daily Bearish Reversal or within the next few days. The same is true for all price activity levels."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/the-princeton-models-and-methodologies-a-users-guide/system/

in the Models & Methodologies Second Edition (recommended) pdf its on page 28. "The election of a reversal normally indicated that the expected high or low that should
unfold could take place in as short a time span as 1 to 3 units of time (i.e. daily, weekly,
monthly, or quarterly).

Bikefront, keep in mind the Reversal System is not based on technical analysis, its very existence is based on the key principles of physics.  Armstrong has said The Reversal System is not intended to pick highs or lows, "The Reversals provides a map of precisely how far a market can move against the current trend without actually “reversing” the trend itself."

I can't recommend enough everyone read the user guide on how to use the reversal system, it will explain everything
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/the-princeton-models-and-methodologies-a-users-guide/how-to-use-3/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/the-princeton-models-and-methodologies-a-users-guide/system/

Majors are definitely more impressive and usually results in a move significant move when they are elected since they are generated from a major high or low but it just means there is more resistance/support at that level, minors are essentially a minor resistance/support level and majors are a major resistance/support level. The important thing is to find the gaps regardless of whether it’s a minor/major or even if multiple reversals have been elected. Such as I recall the pound electing 3 weekly bullish reversals and bouncing off the 4th reversal so it went down from there.

Most of the time when one level is penetrated, the market price activity will continue to the next available Reversal so therefore we need to look for the gaps because a daily bullish reversal may be elected yet the next available reversal may be a  weekly bullish reversal(weekly resistance) or even a  monthly bullish just above which can overpower the daily and so on but I believe this is more true than ever when we are approaching the end of the week or month where the market will tend to gravitate towards those reversals and so the daily reversals can easily become overpowered by a much stronger cycle.

Regarding  the question do you know if there are there any plans for Socrates to trade based on its own information, I believe that will be coming in stage 2

Here are some more links that are very helpful in understanding more about the reversal system

(https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/qa/filtering-the-reversals-what-level-to-use/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/basic-concepts/the-third-fourth-reversal/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/basic-concepts/trading-reversals-in-reverse/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/models/understanding-the-trading-model/

Absolutely it's all on armstrongeconomics.com see the links below
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/the-princeton-models-and-methodologies-a-users-guide/system/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/the-princeton-models-and-methodologies-a-users-guide/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/models/