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Unfortunately, there are some reasons to be scared : the Lightning Network hack, the failure of Bakkt launch and the Google quantum computing exploit.
How realistic is the Google quantum computing exploit though? Has anyone run a study of how effective this indicator is? I'm a little skeptical about some of their data sources like Google Trends, Bitcoin Dominance, and the way they analyze Twitter.
I check it everyday, and it seems to be very reflective of the sentiment of people. It only updates once a day though, and it is based on movements in the price, so you can't really use it as an indicator for trading. It doesn't matter how realistic is the quantum computing exploit, it matters how people think it is...  Most of people investing in Bitcoin are not computer scientists neither even tech savvy. So they don't care how feasible it is It matters to me if my Bitcon can be cracked by a powerful computer. It doesn't matter to me if uninformed retail investors sell their Bitcoin. If there is no substance to it, it will become yesterday's story. If there is substance to it however.... then we need to be worried. |
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Unfortunately, there are some reasons to be scared : the Lightning Network hack, the failure of Bakkt launch and the Google quantum computing exploit.
How realistic is the Google quantum computing exploit though? Has anyone run a study of how effective this indicator is? I'm a little skeptical about some of their data sources like Google Trends, Bitcoin Dominance, and the way they analyze Twitter.
I check it everyday, and it seems to be very reflective of the sentiment of people. It only updates once a day though, and it is based on movements in the price, so you can't really use it as an indicator for trading. |
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Bitcoin's price has dropped significanty, and there is a great deal of FUD and pessimism in the market. The Fear and Greed index is at 12 today https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/ - close to as low as it has ever been. Strangley or not though, I'm not worried. For me this just seems like part of the plan. I'm not interested in wha the price of Bitcoin is today, this week, this month, or this year. I'm interested in what the price of Bitcoin is going to be in 2, 3, 5, 10 years time. This could be a great buying opportunity for additional accumulation (not advice). The majority of sentiment on this forum seems to be positive, but I am seeing some uncertainty. So it would be good to ask people - Are You Scared or Worried? And what worries you? Or why are you confident? |
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people will gather cash to buy Gold and Bitcoin, they will hold it to go through recessions
I hope this does happen. I'm prepared for both outcomes though. |
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1) Retail investors are not as foolish as they were in the past they know recession periods can last long, hence they won’t sell the only currency that has proven time after time that it can outperform the market.
One thing I disucssed in the video (time stamp below) is an anecdotal example of a thread created by someone looking to sell their BTC to free up cash for expenses, rather than dip into their emergency fiat cash. https://youtu.be/faAjgUZJu0k?t=121If users from Bitcointalk (who are going to be more clued up than the average retail investor) are selling their BTC to pay for stuff instead of spending their fiat, and at this stage. Then think about how many people are going to be selling their BTC when the recession is in full force and people are really feeling the pinch. You clearly have a long term perspective, but most retail investors are quite fickle and have a short term mindset when it comes to investing. They don't really learn. That's why we see the same cycles every 10-15 years. |
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Yeah it's not a question of IF there will be another recession, it's a question of WHEN.
It looks like there wil be another transference of wealth.
The masses will be selling off their assets on the cheap to meet their expenses, their property or stocks for example, or their Bitcoin. People need to eat at the end of the day.
The smart money will then be buying up these assets for pennies on the dollar.
And the cycle begins again....
If you can stack up on valuable assets like BTC and weather the storm/manage your finances, then you can profit like all the other smart money investors.
That's what I'm doing.
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Generally, all assets/commodities will decrease in value when a recession happens. However, there are "inferior goods," i.e., lower quality goods that will perform better if consumers income declines. IMO, Bitcoin is "normal goods." It will perform better when consumers income increases. https://www.economicshelp.org/concepts/inferior-good/Yeah, there are some assets like Gold though that do well within a recession. |
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I think it's important to consider what impact the recession that's upcoming will have on Bitcoin. Bitcoin has never been through a recession, and so we don't know how owners of and investors in Bitcoin will react. My thinking is as follows: 1. Retail investors by and large, will need to sell/spend their Bitcoin to pay their expenses and suppor themselves through the recession. So this could cause a dip in the price and a lessening in demand throughout the period. 2. Institutional investors may well choose to sell Bitcoin during the recession, in order to move funds into less volatile assets such as Gold. 3. Wales will likely hold their Bitcoin, and even pick up additional Bitcoin during any dips in the price, believing that Bitcoin will outlast the recession and will be far more valuable within the next 5, 10, and 15 years. 4. There won't be any parabolic rises seen in Bitcoin as a result of FOMO after the halving. This requires retail investors who have excess cash, or access to cheap credit, both of which are lacking during recessions. My assumptions are based on research I've carried out and summarised in the below video:https://youtu.be/faAjgUZJu0kHow do you think the recession will affect Bitcoin? |
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Gold and Bitcoin have their own segments. Gold investors are usually people who do not understand or are skeptical of cryptocurrency
But what will happen when the future generations who understand Bitcoin replace the people who do not understand Bitcoin I don't really think you understand the main ideology and purpose of bitcoin. If you do, you will never say that bitcoin is gonna replace Gold. Bitcoin was not developed to be an investment entity but it was meant to be an alternate form of physical currency which has no central body controlling it and provide a peer to peer environment for people to transact business with lesser charges.
Bitcoin is whatever you make of it. It's owned by the people, so the people decide what it is used for, not the creator. Bitcoin gives people the ability to be their own bank, to store their own value. So it is a store of value. Gold is a store of value. If Bitcoin eventually is seen as a more convenient and accessible store of value then it is possible that Gold will lose market cap to Bitcoin. This has happened historically when Silver became easier to transact with than Gold, and then it switched back to Gold when countries began moving to the Gold standard. We are now off the Gold standard. Maybe we will move to the Bitcoin standard? |
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OP does have a few good points but the research falls into the weakness of many past research just like this,,, and therefore will not get the right attention. Studies must need to be really well cited with solid verifiable citations. This is the basic scientific methods that simple academic studies implement. Until we can do that for Bitcoin, let us not try fill the space with more such videos,,,
Thanks. At the end of the day, they are ideas, not fact. And ideas don't necessarily need to be backed by science. They're just ideas. I think it's useful and even enjoyable to consider the possible outcomes. There is no harm in considering, and being aware of what may be possible. When Bitcoin was first created, not many people predicted that it would get this far. Part of the reason for this, is that they were afraid to think big, and even consider that possibility. I think you are correct though, the video is very basic and needs more precise and clear solid facts to back the points. I appreciate you watching - the reason I create videos is to share ideas; see how they stack up; get feedback on them; and see if people are thinking the same way, or, differently. |
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OP gold and other metals are their own market. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are also their own market.
The thing is though that if Bitcoin eventually fulfills the objective of Gold - a stable store of value - then why would someone buy Gold? People buy Gold, not because it is shiny, but because it holds its value compared to fiat, which has inflation. If Bitcoin can offer this at a superior level to Gold (when Bitcoin eventaully has a higher Stock to Flow Ratio) then people will likely start opting for Bitcoin instead. |
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The average Joe,who isn't tech savvy simply can't understand how the blockchain works and he will never trust bitcoin,because btc is like thin air for him,while gold can be touched.  I think the younger generations will see Bitcoin as the natural choice for them. They were born into a digital world. Gold will seem more like an alien and senseless object to them. If they can't engage with it using their smartphone, they won't be very interested in it. If Bitcoin is so much better than gold, why it didn't surpass gold already? It's been 10 years since it was created, and adoption as a currency or as store of value is still very low
It will take time for the education to take place. It will take time for the market cap to grow. And it will take time for the younger generations to become of age where they will begin investing in Bitcoin, instead of Gold. But we cannot compare bitcoin and gold because it is different but in the same purposes to give a chance to people to make money.
you shouldn't even be comparing bitcoin and gold because they have nothing in common and not in the same category for one to replace the other. bitcoin is a currency and gold is many things but not a currency.
A few important things to consider here: 1. Gold was a currency, but now is not a currency. It lost that status to promissory notes, and then they lost to fiat currency. So Gold can lose its foot-holding. 2. Bitcoin is not just a currency, it is a store of value, and is currently primarily used as a store of value. It will be used more as a currency in the future when the volatility stops. 3. Bitcoin offers most of the advantages that Gold has, e.g. a high stock to flow ratio. So they do have a lot in common, and they have the same purpose. Bitcoin is superior in many attributes, except its utility as a metal. I don't think bitcoin will send gold to oblivion. Both bitcoin and gold will co-exists together. There will be a market for both of them.
Yes I think they will co-exist for a long time. |
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Gold is not just a store of value, some also consider it an investment opportunity. I'll explain how I find these two different. A store of value is something you can have something valuable in and then expect it to be more or less of the same value after some time passes. When investing money, however, you don't expect to have the same amount in the future, you want to have more, to make a profit. And I think that gold is a great store of value because it's fairly stable and low-risk. Bitcoin, on the other hand, seems like a way better investment, but it involves higher risks. So my point is that if you have $15k, and you want to save this money for your future adult children, gold might be a good option. If you want $15k, and you are willing to risk for the chance of having $150k in the future, then Bitcoin seems more suitable.
I agree, gold is currently less volatile and more stable that BTC. This is partly because it has a much higher market cap. Bitcoin is still very early, but I believe in the future when Bitcoin's market cap is much higher, the volatility will be reduced. Once this happens, the only advantage that Gold has, is its application and tangibility. Bitcoin is superior in almost every other aspect. |
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Overtime I've researched what has made gold desirable as a store of value. Additionally I've come to understand the limitations of Gold, and why I believe Gold will be seen as the go to store of value less and less going into the future. We're living in an increasingly high speed, digital world, where people expect instant access to their funds and their stored value. Gold cannot and will not be able to offer this to future generations, who will not accept the limitations of Gold. I believe Bitcoin meets the and surpasses many of the attributes offered by Gold. For this reason I think Bitcoin will grow to become the primary store of value for people, and will begin taking market cap away from Gold. I've created a video below where I list the attributes that Bitcoin has, that Gold simply does not have, and why Gold cannot compete with Bitcoin. I believe proponents of Bitcoin have been too soft on Gold. Gold is severely limited. Please watch the video and let me know what you think. Thanks https://youtu.be/UyaNJMxWmSU |
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while its a decent plan on paper , there are many obstacles in realiisation
I don't understand why would you want to first increase your profit investing in bitcoin and then ...selling and reinvesting?
is it not more logical to keep it and live off the investment , selling only a small part when needed
at least compare the markets , the bitcoin and property and see which one is better to keep your money at
I don't think there is any business that gives you 100x in a few years time ( not talking about the illegal stuff like drugs , arms and chain food stores here )
bitcoin price did more than 5.000x in less than 10 years , almost 500x yearly on average
also property investment has additional risks other than its losing value , namely force majuer risks like floods , earthshakes , wars , democrats in power etc.
That is a good point. Why sell any Bitcoin to move into property if Bitcoin is providing amazing returns? In truth, I will continue to hold a large amount of Bitcoin, as I think it will provide good returns in the coming decades. I do want an asset which provides cash flow on a monthly basis, like property. Property also provides capital appreciation, and is diverse from Bitcoin. I don't want to keep all of my wealth in Bitcoin. |
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Hopefully this thread is still alive when the time comes so we can all see this as a living evidence of a fulfilled plan.
Thanks, I intend to update on my progress within my youtube channel, and can also update to this thread. This is really clever and very helpful. You have done well with gathering all this info and putting it all together. Maybe you could get others to invest with you with such a great sales pitch as that.
Thanks  . Hopefully others will benefit from investing in Bitcoin. You can simply use it as a long-term investment and from time to time sell some of the coins to have earnings for everyday needs.
Yes I agree. you can earn much more than a Deposit in the Bank at interest.
Yeah the banks suck. Being your own bank with Bitcoin is much better. In fact, it was the desire to become financially independent that motivated me to invest in bitcoin. My plan is a bit similar to yours - I invest in bitcoin and when the amount that I have invested will grow several times, I will sell some of my coins and invest in some business. The main thing for me is not to go to work in the office, but to be completely independent.
I'm hoping that in 3-5 years I will be financially free and not have to work (unless I want to). I see Bitcoin as one of the best routes to achieve this. |
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What I like about your strategy is the following : 1. You are saying, Fck it! I am going for it. A lot of people stand on the side, not taking any risk and waiting for success to come to them. In the real world, that does not happen. 2. You are not going "All in" ....so you only expose enough capital to high risk, that you are willing to lose. A total Bitcoin failure, will not sink your boat.  3. You have a plan and you stick to it. Too many people invest blindly with no purpose. 4. You are not scared to pull the profit, when you reach your goal. Some people become too greedy and they miss the opportunity, when the profit present it self. I invested a large amount of money into Bitcoin when the price was between $300 and $400 and I took profit when it reached $18 000+ and that profit was re-invested into other investment options in my bigger portfolio. Thanks for the vote of support. Yeah I think the key here is not getting greedy, similar to you. I'm going to take profits slowly and not cash out all at once. My main goal was to reach a position where I received back all the capital that I invested into Bitcoin and then to frequently take profits, when there is a spike in the price, so that I can show that this was a good investment. I also wanted to get as much out of this investment, before something bad happens and I am left with zero profits to show for my efforts. I was one of the lucky people, who reached the ROI stage and then far exceeded that stage by showing a 800%+ profit on my initial investment. This is why you should never pull out the whole investment, because we never know when that next Bull market would happen again. Yeah I agree, I will always own a good amount of Bitcoin. I plan to use Bitcoin to store my wealth going into the future. I trust Bitcoin more than the banks. |
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Everyone has a slightly different method for becoming financially free, based on their personality, skill-sets and appetite for risk. I haven't come across many other BTC enthusiasts though that are using Bitcoin to become financially free, so I thought it might be interesting to share what I'm doing. My plan, simply put is: - Invest a % of my Income into BTC (£100,000 / $120,000) - I have almost completed this step
- Wait for that investment to grow by 5-10x
- Pull out my profit and invest into residential property
- Live off the rental income (passive income will be £100,000 / $120,000 p/a)
That’s if it goes according to the plan I’ve detailed here: https://youtu.be/SiYc6ipKefQ Some may perceive my plan as extremely reckless. I know I could potentially lose everything that I invest, but I’m prepared to take that risk, because in my mind the potential reward outweighs the potential risk. If Bitcoin goes to 0, then it will be a major setback. It won’t ruin me, but it will take me two years to save up that money again (saving £50k from my £75k post tax income). If it pays off, my route to financial freedom will be LIGHT YEARS faster than I could ever expect from property, gold, bonds, or investing in the stock market as a whole. Although I fully understand the risk involved, I don’t see this as a gamble. I truly believe in Bitcoin as a technology. I’m willing to bet on something that I believe will have a positive impact on the world going into the future. If I’m wrong, I’m wrong. That’s it. Start again. But if I’m right, my life will change. That’s really just a brief summary of my investment strategy (there is actually a bit more to it) - I’ve created a video, also linked to above, with a clearer explanation here: https://youtu.be/SiYc6ipKefQ It would be interesting to hear if anyone is doing anything similar to this, and what peoples' thoughts are. Wait for that investment to grow by 5-10x - sounds easier than it is. Yes, patience is the key. Luckily I have practice. |
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To become financially free with bitcoin you need to be an incredibly cool trader with a sixth sense
In my opinion, you just need to HODL. |
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what usually make people panic sometimes is lack of patience, and the reason for this is that they tie the investment that is meant to be a long term investment to a short term investment
Yeah the majority of retail investors come in based on FOMO, and they are expecting/hoping that Bitcoin is going to go to the moon within a couple months. Some of them borrow money or invest outside of their means. This is basically just gambling. Most of the people who invested above $13k in 2017 have now sold their Bitcoin at a loss earlier this year. They did not have the patience or the vision to wait for Bitcoin to go to $100k. If you buy Bitcoin you have to be prepared to wait years for a return. What you mean by "ready". Already lots of merchants started accepting bitcoins as one of payment options. Bitcoin is already a currency but not available for every part of people yet. Can you buy a cup of coffee while you're on the way to work with Bitcoin? Not yet, not without paying fees which outweigh the purchase. And not without volatility in the price which means that one day your coffee costs $3, and the next day it costs $5. People will start using Bitcoin to buy their food at the supermarket and to buy their coffee when the price is less volitile. This will happen after their is mass adoption, which will happen after people buy Bitcoin as a store of value, which will happen after education and regulary people learning and understanding what Bitcoin is. These things take time. But now is the time when thee is an opportunity to make MASSIVE gains by buying Bitcoin. Once Bitcoin has become a stable currency, there won't be a good investment opportunity (compared to today). There will be a stable currency. |
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