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1  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin to $100k in 2021 on: November 16, 2020, 04:17:17 PM
We should not focus on specific numbers like these. I believe bitcoin is powered by the increase it has and I understand that the higher price goes the more people will get involved. There is a reason why we saw a spike in user numbers not just in bitcointalk but everywhere in crypto during 2017 peak and even though some of them left after price crashed, there were a lot of them that stayed and still around here from those days.

However I believe we could do that if we do gradual increases, I don't care what the end price will be at the end of 2021 for example, but if the price keeps growing and growing all year long, it could end up at $50k and I would be happier than price being $100k in a day and staying like that all year. This is why I think gradual but constant increases are better than hyped big prices.

price discovery = hype cycles.  They just take progressively longer over time.
2  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin to $100k in 2021 on: November 15, 2020, 09:23:05 PM
Still seems like many here don't understand what's really happening.  I think you all really need to watch the video and let it sink in.  As well as subscribe to get more exposure to the content.

As I mentioned already, learned about Bitcoin in 2013 and understood it's place in the world.

Here's one of my messages here from 2014.



$100k is not the endgame.  Buy bitcoin and hold it long-term.


Although visually is a good way to understand how your scenario works but I'm sure not everyone will like it and even believe in what you have done. You may not be able to force people to watch the videos that you present on your private channel because there are things that are still difficult to understand visually and will seem easy to understand with articles such as language limitation.

Another solution to make us benefit from your analysis is to share it in writing here besides you can also direct it to your video. About the $100K price tag, that doesn't sound like an impossible thing for bitcoin. But I would say it's very difficult to happen in 2021 because to match the previous ATH is still difficult.

Appreciate the feedback.  Will take into consideration adding more writing analysis, something have planned for at acryptoeconomy.com.  Still important to watch the videos.  These will improve over time.
3  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin to $100k in 2021 on: November 15, 2020, 08:13:09 PM
Still seems like many here don't understand what's really happening.  I think you all really need to watch the video and let it sink in.  As well as subscribe to get more exposure to the content.

As I mentioned already, learned about Bitcoin in 2013 and understood it's place in the world.

Here's one of my messages here from 2014.



$100k is not the endgame.  Buy bitcoin and hold it long-term.

4  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Beginner video aiming to help newcomers decide whether to own Bitcoin on: November 15, 2020, 03:33:12 PM
I don't want to be disappointed, but a 33-minute video doesn't look perfect for a beginner who has no interest in cryptocurrencies.
The sound in the background is not clear, the background is blurry and has a lot of inaccurate details.
Try adding some cartoons and dividing the video into several videos from 7 to 10 minutes, with focus on making it interesting.

Are you watching it in HD?  Shouldn't be blurry
Inaccurate details - example?  The information is accurate if that's what you mean.

The timing is something have been thinking about already.

Appreciate the feedback.
5  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin to $100k in 2021 on: November 14, 2020, 04:59:10 PM
Things become more clear when you stop focusing on the price and dig deeper.  what is it? why was it created? what problems is it meant to solve?  what does that mean for the future? 

The price appreciation is just a consequence of all the above. 

If you're here because you wanted to place a bet, that's a fine starting point, keep learning.

6  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin to $100k in 2021 on: November 14, 2020, 04:54:09 AM
Given the perspective and goals some here seem to have, I can understand the profit-taking. Have a sound profit-taking plan and stick to it.

If your idea of taking profit allows for selling then trying to re-buy later at a higher price, that's not a profit-taking plan and you need to re-adjust.

HODL what you can.  It's still the same binary outcome.  Either Bitcoin succeeds and we get to millions per coin in the long-term, or it fails and goes to 0.  There's no in-between.  That's more clear now than it was back then.

7  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin to $100k in 2021 on: November 13, 2020, 09:56:59 PM
Okay it does seem most aren't watching the video Smiley   Here are cliff notes:

  • Thesis - $100k likely in 2021, almost certain next 2-3 years.
  • From early on it's been clear adoption and purposefully designed price appreciation will be binary.
  • I was expecting $10k by 2017 in 2013, we touched twice that.
  • The failure possibility gets closer to 0 over time.
  • Macro events taking place faster than some, and I, expected.  Adoption as a reserve asset, positive narrative amongst hedge fund managers and retail-facing investment houses as a store of wealth, consumer adoption (Paypal), public-facing treasuries etc.
  • Logarithmic time-series model from 2013 still significant -
  • PlanB's S2F and S2FX proving accurate - https://100trillionusd.github.io/

That's it.  Either way, it's an exciting time, while also not exciting that fiat systems are suffering and sinking citizens accordingly.  Hence my attempts at motivating those who aren't already in the ecosystem, to get out of the fiat one.  I might make extraordinary claims, if so, they're genuine beliefs I hold according to sufficient evidence to make claim of a possibility.  I wouldn't say anything I don't actually believe.
8  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin to $100k in 2021 on: November 13, 2020, 08:55:09 PM
I created a new channel recently and wanted to share my 6th produced video exploring us reaching $100k in 2021, which is almost a certainty within the next 2-3 years.

A good insight into what may happen in the bitcoin market within 2-3 years, appreciate it.
it would be better if you can share more like your video summary for people who don't want to watch the full video.

$100k in July 2021 seems too confident due to some reasons as we know how bitcoin has been volatile for many years, as traders will sell out whenever bitcoin reaches a higher price point, the possibilities change depending on how much the price would drop at the time bitcoin reaches the $20k and $30k mark. Imagine if institutional-investors planning to sell bitcoin at $30k, the price may crash to below $10k if the market following the fud. in this case, the best price we can expect in 2021 probably $50k, for the next step, how about $17k in two days?

Appreciate the feedback, new to this so still finding the sweet spot.  Most of my videos so far have probably been too long Smiley.  Trying to deliver quality but that probably actually means shorter and more concise.  

Thanks.

It would be a lot of fun to create a livestream to discuss price action and news.  An active discussion would be cool. What do you think?
9  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin to $100k in 2021 on: November 13, 2020, 06:06:00 PM
Hi;

I created a new channel recently and wanted to share my 6th produced video exploring us reaching $100k in 2021, which is almost a certainty within the next 2-3 years.



I have doubt when people put the word certainty in their post about the price of Bitcoin, because realistically you cannot accurately predict the price of Bitcoin in any situation and at any time, that's just impossible, there are those who predicted close to it but it never happens all the time, I'm definite you are just making a hype I also will do that if I want to make a profit.

No offense, but if you are going to represent what people say, please do it accurately.  'near certainty' is not the same as 'certainty'.  Don't cherry pick a word and misrepresent someone's statements. Qualifier words are important.  In the video I linked, and yes I linked a video of mine I worked hard on, am okay with that - specifically mention I wouldn't say anything with 100% certainty, and you can't time the market.

The remainder, appreciate the varied discussion.  Here is the source for the primary model.  If you haven't explored his work - https://100trillionusd.github.io/

Cheers  Smiley

10  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Beginner video aiming to help newcomers decide whether to own Bitcoin on: November 13, 2020, 01:28:59 AM
Please don't promote Youtube channel in Beginners & Help.

Apologies if detracts from the discussion here.  Didn't think it was against the rules, and thought it could help.

If mods agree and would like to remove it (actually can't remove it myself anyways it seems) Smiley, I understand.

Thanks, good luck with your learning.
11  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin to $100k in 2021 on: November 13, 2020, 01:05:20 AM
Hi;

I created a new channel recently and wanted to share my 6th produced video exploring us reaching $100k in 2021, which is almost a certainty within the next 2-3 years.


If you insist this, you will probably become the next John McAfee with unrealistic prediction of the price, I have based my prediction on how the market react for the past three years, it will take the next halving for us to have a big pump this current production of Bitcoin is good for $50 k at the highest, the adoption is good so far, but there's always a market volatility that we must not overlook, the price could go down even without a hint.

Definitely not the only one that considers it a strong possibility Smiley.  Actually, very popular models are in line, I'm more-so reading them, and finding a macro view that seems to fit with that possibility.

Either way, not insisting, I think it's likely, and near certainty in 2-3 years.  That's about it.  At 1% on the John McAfee spectrum.  Actually seems in-line with a fair portion of the bitcoin community on this. Maybe outside bitcointalk, haven't been here in a while.
12  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin to $100k in 2021 on: November 13, 2020, 12:54:46 AM
For what its worth 100k is certainly possible but would be transformative, I dont think any such escalation happens in isolation but in combination with rather large changes in the world such as alterations to the global reserve system based around dollar and so on.   If the dollar index dropped 20% for example that might explain such a target and we'd only realise retrospectively.

If we're talking 100k then its a macro view we are discussing which I prefer to take the longer term view and the bars on a chart of at least daily to weekly or higher time frames because its always more accurate then trying to guess pricing around hourly bars like a game of hop skotch.

I'll look into the video for perspective but another macro view I was just looking at that tracks back to 2017 action and tries to draw accuracy by price action guidance over years, the conclusion there is bullish but with a possible pullback to 13k.   The 13k is the test for the higher action as I understand it, the rough guide is Fib levels of which 16k is .786 and the low is taken at the xmas of about 2 years ago which I agree was very low sentiment and a good anchor for predicting price potential.     I'll post chart anyhow:



Appreciate the in-depth response.  Would agree that reaching, and maintaining $100k+ in the long-term would at least start to coincide with significant macro-economic impact.  That's the central point anyway, to hedge.

Simply touching $100k at some point, let's say for example, reaching it as an over-shoot in the next cycle, is very likely and I think requires less upheaval that we're implying otherwise.  That cycle top taking place in 2021 seems hasty, but models that I agree with are showing strong correlations, suggesting it likely ie. S2F.  Of course, that doesn't provide any certainty, but it does seem like likely.

Either way, 2-3 years is almost certain at this point.  Leaving aside the central macro view that BTC serves as the ultimate hedge against the gradual collapse of a fiat system.  The store of wealth narrative alone is growing increasingly significant. 

Appreciate the charts and the support/resistance areas.  Will take a closer look.
13  Other / Beginners & Help / Beginner video aiming to help newcomers decide whether to own Bitcoin on: November 12, 2020, 08:10:05 PM
Hi;

started a new channel recently after debating it for some time, it will be about everything crypto, minus scam projects.  Just released my first beginner-focused video for the channel that also includes project reviews, market updates and interviews.

Would be great to spread it out there in case it might be helpful to anyone.  If you find it helpful please show your support by liking and subscribing.  Have a lot of content planned.

Here's the video - https://youtu.be/0P4PMzFoM0A

Here's an example of a project review video - https://youtu.be/SMIt77kTpqc

Enjoy.
14  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin to $100k in 2021 on: November 12, 2020, 03:53:59 PM
Appreciate all of your input and perspectives, and your taking the time to watch it.  Couple things would like to add.

I made clear in the video, it's an outcome I find likely, never say it's certain, of course it's not Smiley.  Do say we will reach $100k in the next 2-3 years with *near certainty.

I am definitely not creating this video to market the channel.  It's just another type of video sharing my genuine perspective.  The models are not mine.  Have enjoyed creating the project review videos most will say.

Would be curious to hear what would help you watch the full video?

Thanks.
15  Economy / Speculation / Bitcoin to $100k in 2021 on: November 12, 2020, 02:37:11 AM
Hi;

I created a new channel recently and wanted to share my 6th produced video exploring us reaching $100k in 2021, which is almost a certainty within the next 2-3 years.

New to Youtube but excited to produce useful content.  Please have a look, and if you find it helpful, would appreciate your support by subscribing and liking the video.

You can see it here - https://youtu.be/-7JKxJDnEMI

Topics for videos include in-depth project reviews, market updates and news, beginner-friendly videos and interviews.

Here's an example of a project review video - https://youtu.be/SMIt77kTpqc

Here's an example of a beginner-friendly video - https://youtu.be/0P4PMzFoM0A

Hope you enjoy the videos and thank you for your support. If anyone has any suggestions please let me know.

Thanks,
Ali
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