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I think that a lot of this has to do with a new growing category. Everyone rushed to sell their coins there. I wonder what the chart would look like if there were only 5-10 coins for auction. Many of these coins have low mintage and as category grows in popularity and coins get harder to find the premiums will continue to grow. Its guaranteed as time goes on these coins get more evenly dispersed. Right now were still at a point where 250 people hold 70% of the coins (just a guess). Physical bitcoin will grow and go through the roof, ITS SCIENCE
But... really look at the orange dotted line on the first chart. That's the premium value for each lot over time. Sure, it dips down somewhat after the first few were offered, but what strikes me the most is actually how stable it is. These are all coins with slightly different grades, too. The average premiums of all 1BTC Cas error coins sold at auction: - 2022: $16,300 — average grade 65.4 — 20 coins
- 2023: $19,000 — average grade 65.8 — 5 coins
- 2024: $16,000 — average grade 66.1 — 7 coins (so far)
- All: $16,656 — average grade 65.6 — 32 coins
Note: Includes a coin sold by Heritage on 5/8/24 which was missing from the graph.Heritage is selling 5 more on 8/17/24. They're a nice grade rainbow of 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, and the first NGC graded ones I've seen (personally). |
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I think you’d be hard pressed to find someone who chose to sell via an auction house and doesn’t regret it.
I sold a coin with SB last year, and I have no regrets about that sale. I made a decent amount and they made a decent amount. Even though their commission structure (for loaded coins) is unethical in a general sense, it was reasonable in that case. And for unloaded / unfunded / low denomination coins, I think the structure is fine since it works like any other percent-based commission system. |
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Take you coin, ship it to the auction house, wait for money.
I agree with everything you said about auctions in general. Auctioneers are doing work and providing services, and that costs money. If you do it yourself, you deserve to make that much more of the profit. What I don't agree with is the possibility of any situation where the auction house makes a sale and they profit but the seller loses money. As I mentioned earlier, since the auctioneer is legally an agent of the seller, this situation could cause legal problems in some places. I'd be opposed to the opposite situation too, of course, but that's not a thing that ever happens. |
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Any commission taken by SB should only be on the premium, not the loaded value.
I agree that this would be the gold standard for fairness. If 20% on just the premium wasn't enough to make this arrangement worth the auctioneer's time, couldn't they just increase the BP to like 25-50%? This seems so much more straightforward and it'd still be equitable for the seller: if either party profits, both parties do. Or is the 20% "sacred" to these firms for some reason? Don't these auction houses usually charge a separate seller's commission on coins without much face value? They could make up the difference with that too. Not that it's anything different really, since the BP is really paid by the seller anyway since it depresses all bids by that amount. |
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I consider this post a big "nothing burger" (respectfully) I have been in the auction biz for over 25 years. and the physical btc collectibles for several. stacks is doing everything right, they only suggestion I made to James was making the bid increments $500 instead of $2,500 on high end loaded coins, $2,500 increments are just to hight to create bidding competition. also I think stacks should cut into their commission a little bit to help sellers get their high end loaded coins sold, if a $80k loaded 2011 Cas coin gets to with in a couple grand $of spot price, I feel that stacks should cut into their commission and make up the difference to help get the coin sold, then both the seller and stacks make money. think about how long the seller goes without their coin just to have it passed on because stacks isn't willing to bend a little bit. that's my 2 cents
It sounds like we agree on the most important points (bid increments are inflated, everyone should benefit, etc.) I bet a fair number of people who own crypto coins don't have any auction industry experience, and that's why I wanted to put up a warning. Heritage is offering somewhat better terms, but still with some pitfalls. They'll split 50-50 the portion of the BP that exceeds the spot price, and they don't use any reserve. This means that, unlike SB, all coins will sell. However, the seller will lose money when the spot:premium ratio goes over 8 (ie. if BTC is at $60,000, a 1BTC coin with anything less than a $7,500 premium will lose money for the seller). Heritage will always earn 50% of the coin's premium unless the spot:premium ratio is under 5, in which case the seller will earn a higher percentage. Interestingly, this works out to be about a 9% commission for unfunded coins, which is a lot less than 20%. However, I don't know if they offer these terms for auctions of peeled coins, or for coins loaded with only very small amounts. If they do, that could be a pretty good option. |
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I'll take 1  |
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So at what point do you peel versus having to pay an escrow and or take a flight because it's too expensive to insure?
The value of a peeled Cas coin looks to be about $200-$800 depending on the year. |
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Watching the most recent SB auction - most of the loaded Cas coins sold for face value (plus the 20% buyers fee SB I assume pockets).
Yes, SB keeps this commission ("buyer's premium"). This is unfortunate for the sellers who basically made no profit at all. I don’t fully agree with OP though in that SB is not going to take on the risk of selling a loaded coin which is worth 75k and only make 20% of the profit above the spot price of BTC as it wouldn’t be worth it to them - there is likely some middle ground.
I know that large recent sale of Cas coins on Heritage I think the buyers premium was split between the auction house and the seller - that seemed like a fairer deal.
I agree with you that a middle ground could work, especially considering all the insurance, storage, overhead, etc. that comes with safely auctioning high-value items. - As it stands, SB made $107,959 from all the loaded coins in their recent auction; sellers made $19,915.
- If commissions had been split 50-50, SB would've made $53,980; sellers $73,895.
- If commissions had only been taken on the collectible values, SB would've made $21,312; sellers $106,562.
I could probably get behind a middle ground that looks like that. If either party makes a profit, all parties should. In fact, a seller not making any money or in fact losing money on an auction in which the auctioneer makes so much might even be construed as breach of fiduciary duty in some jurisdictions. Auctioneers are legally considered to be agents of the seller, after all. What will happen if this continues and the fees don’t change is people will simply stop selling their loaded Cas coins on SB as they will not expect to make any profit at all as buyers aren’t willing to pay more than a 20% premium over spot price at this time it seems.
The collectible value certainly looks more or less decoupled to me, so I wouldn't expect to see vastly higher premiums from collectors. I mostly agree with you, except for one detail: If this continues, premiums hold steady, but crypto prices rise by as little as 10-20%, people simply won't be able to sell Cas coins with SB anymore, as their commission structure would make it impossible. Same goes for Heritage, since their BP is the same (20%) even if they share it differently. |
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If you had a loaded cas coin, would you make more dollars selling it here or there at this time?
Honest question, thanks!
Assuming it's a 1BTC coin, you'd make an ton more selling it here, since unless it has a premium over $12,000 (one-fifth of its loaded value), you'll make $0 selling it with Stack's Bowers. They'll make a lot of money though. Even if your coin had a premium of $30,000, you'd split that premium with Stack's Bowers 50-50. |
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The simple answer is, premiums go down as Bitcoin price goes up.
If you mean by percentage of loaded value, then yes, of course they do. If you mean by absolute value, then I don't see it. It looks like valuations have remained reasonably stable over the last three years at minimum. Please feel free to point me to market data that indicates otherwise. |
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Honestly all I see here is that you are a newbie who doesn't understand this market at all, especially right now.
If that's the case, then please help me understand it. |
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Here are two graphs, which I think speak pretty clearly for themselves:   I have several notes: - The collectible value of physical cryptocurrency is not correlated with its loaded value. These values change independently over time.
- Stack's Bowers current commission structure is plainly unethical, at the expense of sellers, and to the benefit of the auctioneer.
- As the ratio of the coin's loaded value to its collectible value increases, the auctioneer will make a larger share of the profits. This correlation is linear.
- If the ratio is 0 (the coin is unfunded or it has zero face value), the auctioneer will make 16.667% of the profits (aka a 20% commission). This is fair.
- For the vast majority of coins auctioned by Stack's Bowers, this ratio is close to 0. For example, rare dollar coins, ancient coins, etc.
- If the ratio is 5, the auctioneer will make 100% of the profits and the seller will receive the coin's face value.
- If the ratio is greater than 5, the coin will not be able to sell at an auction that uses this commission structure.
- By including the coin's loaded value in the auction price, the bidding increment is also artificially inflated, resulting in slightly undervalued sales.
- In the most recent auction, which took place on June 19, 2024, at least 14 sellers sold coins that earned them no profit whatsoever.
- These 14 sellers actually lost money because if they'd peeled and redeemed their coin, they'd still have their unfunded coin.
- Stack's Bowers made a total on $92,920 in profit on the sales of these 14 coins.
This problem is easy to fix: - Buyers would agree in advance to pay a fee equal to the loaded value of any coin they win on the day of the auction.
- The bidding would start at $0 with no reserve, or at a starting price somewhere below the estimated collectible value of the coin.
- The auction house would make a typical 20% commission on the collectible value of the sold coin.
- Sellers would always receive a fair share of the profits from the sale.
- Any coin could be successfully auctioned, even if the ratio of its loaded value to its collectible value was greater than 5.
- The auction house would make less profit from each loaded coin, but would also be able to sell coins with high loaded values that they otherwise couldn't.
- More sellers would be willing to work with an auction house that adopted these ethical policies.
- Bidders would be mostly unaffected, except that they would benefit from less inflated bid increments.
I've been seriously considering what it would take to start an auction house that used this commission structure. Here's all of the data in CSV format that was used to generate the graphs above: Date,Lot,Firstbits,Slab,Cert,Grade,Sale Price,Hammer Price,Loaded Value,Collectible Value,Seller's Profit,Stack's Bowers' Profit,Source
2022-04-05,3209,1Att3xxP,PCGS,44146109,66,"$78,000","$65,000","$46,000","$32,000","$19,000","$13,000",https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/lots/view/3-VJGGN
2022-04-05,3210,13CEMJaT,PCGS,44146215,63,"$69,000","$57,500","$46,000","$23,000","$11,500","$11,500",https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/lots/view/3-VJGHB
2022-06-15,2308,1B2Q7Cyc,PCGS,44614956,67,"$50,400","$42,000","$21,000","$29,400","$21,000","$8,400",https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/lots/view/3-WWDXU
2022-06-15,2309,1BFbetd6,PCGS,44614948,67,"$52,800","$44,000","$21,000","$31,800","$23,000","$8,800",https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/lots/view/3-WWDY5
2022-06-15,2310,16nHSDxK,PCGS,44614954,66,"$44,400","$37,000","$21,000","$23,400","$16,000","$7,400",https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/lots/view/3-WWDYG
2022-06-15,2311,13iKRGjj,PCGS,44614942,65,"$40,800","$34,000","$21,000","$19,800","$13,000","$6,800",https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/lots/view/3-WWDYR
2022-06-15,2312,155gAYPX,PCGS,44614955,65,"$38,400","$32,000","$21,000","$17,400","$11,000","$6,400",https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/lots/view/3-WWDZ2
2022-06-15,2313,13FvPEep,PCGS,44614949,64,"$38,400","$32,000","$21,000","$17,400","$11,000","$6,400",https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/lots/view/3-WWDZD
2022-06-15,2314,176cKZbo,PCGS,44614947,63,"$36,000","$30,000","$21,000","$15,000","$9,000","$6,000",https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/lots/view/3-WWDZO
2022-06-15,2315,18RTn6hn,PCGS,44614953,63,"$36,000","$30,000","$21,000","$15,000","$9,000","$6,000",https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/lots/view/3-WWDZZ
2022-08-25,7270,18iok44x,PCGS,44614939,67,"$33,600","$28,000","$22,000","$11,600","$6,000","$5,600",https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/lots/view/3-XS9DM
2022-08-25,7271,1BA8Ct1P,PCGS,44614945,67,"$31,200","$26,000","$22,000","$9,200","$4,000","$5,200",https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/lots/view/3-XS9DZ
2022-08-25,7272,19HBVU9K,PCGS,44614941,66,"$31,200","$26,000","$22,000","$9,200","$4,000","$5,200",https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/lots/view/3-XS9ED
2022-08-25,7273,1PHaKVcS,PCGS,44614952,65,"$27,600","$23,000","$22,000","$5,600","$1,000","$4,600",https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/lots/view/3-XS9F7
2022-08-25,7274,14i3bSEg,PCGS,45430789,63,"$26,400","$22,000","$22,000","$4,400",$0,"$4,400",https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/lots/view/3-XS9FL
2022-11-04,10004,157dpvaU,PCGS,44614946,67,"$38,400","$32,000","$21,000","$17,400","$11,000","$6,400",https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/lots/view/3-Z8XSX
2022-11-04,10005,1896nPkp,PCGS,44614951,66,"$31,200","$26,000","$21,000","$10,200","$5,000","$5,200",https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/lots/view/3-Z8XTG
2022-11-04,10006,13tC89uL,PCGS,44614944,66,"$31,200","$26,000","$21,000","$10,200","$5,000","$5,200",https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/lots/view/3-Z8XTQ
2022-11-04,10007,18iGiQi5,PCGS,44614940,66,"$31,200","$26,000","$21,000","$10,200","$5,000","$5,200",https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/lots/view/3-Z8XU1
2022-11-04,10008,1BFsw3pu,PCGS,44614950,66,"$34,800","$29,000","$21,000","$13,800","$8,000","$5,800",https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/lots/view/3-Z8XUC
2023-03-24,8004,13K7EBoF,ANACS,6132851,66,"$57,600","$48,000","$27,000","$30,600","$21,000","$9,600",https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/lots/view/3-11DVUB
2023-03-24,8005,147X1yWH,ANACS,6132495,65,"$48,000","$40,000","$27,000","$21,000","$13,000","$8,000",https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/lots/view/3-11DVUM
2023-06-16,4005,16ppVhXt,ANACS,4748923,67,"$40,800","$34,000","$25,000","$15,800","$9,000","$6,800",https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/lots/view/3-134QI4
2023-11-21,7001,15m2Pnxw,PCGS,45761378,67,"$55,200","$46,000","$36,000","$19,200","$10,000","$9,200",https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/lots/view/3-160685
2023-11-21,7002,131sJqhg,PCGS,47321554,64,"$44,400","$37,000","$36,000","$8,400","$1,000","$7,400",https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/lots/view/3-16068Q
2024-03-28,8003,147Veuat,PCGS,48568588,67,"$96,000","$80,000","$70,000","$26,000","$10,000","$16,000",https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/lots/view/3-18DWU2
2024-03-28,8004,15LiaCSR,PCGS,48931636,66,"$90,000","$75,000","$70,000","$20,000","$5,000","$15,000",https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/lots/view/3-18DWUF
2024-03-28,8005,13VsK17R,ANACS,Unknown,65,"$84,000","$70,000","$70,000","$14,000",$0,"$14,000",https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/lots/view/3-18DWUS
2024-03-28,8006,1Ahz7F6U,ICG,Unknown,65,"$84,000","$70,000","$70,000","$14,000",$0,"$14,000",https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/lots/view/3-18DWV6
2024-06-19,5005,16R8wrCv,ICG,1208350201,68,"$78,000","$65,000","$65,000","$13,000",$0,"$13,000",https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/lots/view/3-1A8OQO
2024-06-19,5006,1P1nsaoV,PCGS,49121934,66,"$78,000","$65,000","$65,000","$13,000",$0,"$13,000",https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/lots/view/3-1A8OQZ
2024-06-19,5007,148Y7D3U,ANACS,6132498,66,Passed,N/A,"$65,000",N/A,N/A,N/A,https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/lots/view/3-1A8ORC
2024-06-19,5008,165yQGSZ,PCGS,49372057,64,Passed,N/A,"$65,000",N/A,N/A,N/A,https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/lots/view/3-1A8ORR
2024-06-19,5009,15kgxa59,PCGS,49372055,61,Passed,N/A,"$65,000",N/A,N/A,N/A,https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/lots/view/3-1A8OSL |
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This auction was cancelled on Mar 30, 2023 at 4:20 AM EST by the seller.
No bids had been placed at the time that it was cancelled.
-Dan
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This was my first time getting anything re-graded! These were originally graded several years ago. They were cracked (by me) before being sent back in.
MS-63 ---> MS-65 (+2)
MS-63 ---> MS-67 (+4)
These coins aren't for sale, I just thought it was interesting (especially the 4 point bump). Also intersting to see how they've changed the slab labels since then too. So, did I just get lucky here, or is this something to be expected?   |
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I offered 0.8BTC as well. Apparently someone has bid up to 1.2BTC now. I would love a public auction if all those involved would agree to it so that there is more transparency in the bidding process.
I've been away from these boards for quite a while, and I didn't realize there was a dedicated auctions forum. I'd be inclined to use that in the future. At present, there's an offer from a user wishing to remain anonymous, so I think this one is going to remain a silent auction for the time being. |
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Here you go... I also have a video of me cracking a slab if interested. I have it down and can knock out a slab in under 30 seconds now  Blazed, thanks for the info and picture! I ended up using a pull saw and it worked pretty well. I sawed off the bottom edge with two shallow angle cuts, then was able to cleanly split the case up along its sides to pull it apart wide enough to slide the coin (and its plastic ring) out. What's especially nice is that it left the remaining part of the slab in one piece and the top labels totally sealed and undisturbed. Just out of curiosity, why did you crack open that MS-64 error coin (the one pictured)? |
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