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1  Economy / Speculation / Re: A Brazen Prediction of the Future on: June 17, 2021, 01:46:35 PM
Here's part two!

2029 - 2035

2029 is known as the year of digital currency. Bitcoin has become the defacto currency of the internet. Most developed nations have released a CBDC. Many developing nations are developing their own digital currencies. I expect CBDCs to take on a proof of stake/proof of authority structure. Central banks will give licenses to banks and other organizations to be come participants in the network. The amount of money an organization stakes determines their reward and how often they verify transactions. Many banks will issue their own wallets with special features, including access to Bitcoin through custodial or multi-sig wallets.

Over the past decade, the national debt of the US has increased to nearly 300% of GDP. Many organizations, nations, and individuals are losing faith in the US's ability to repay this massive debt. As a result, a sell off of bonds and other US debt vehicles begins. This sell off spooks the wider economy. Trust in government debt is reduced, so organizations and individuals turn to other assets. The demand for real estate, stocks, and cryptocurrency balloons. This demand in turn raises prices. Bitcoin's price pumps to $3.5M. Since the interest rates are artificially low, this increases demand for loans. Banks are willing to give out more loans. Banks are giving out more risky loans as well, since defaults on the loans result in more equity for the bank. 2008 seems to be playing out all over again.

Meanwhile, the government is starting to have a budget crisis. Over the decade, more governments around the world are opting for bonds in other countries. Now, organizations and individuals are less willing to loan to the government. The US federal government is also getting less in taxes due to increased use of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, privacy coins in particular. There are only two solutions the government can resort to: increase taxes on the wealthy or inflate the currency even further. The government opts for both. The increased taxes on the wealthy and large businesses causes more tax avoidance and tax evasion. More businesses leave the US for other countries.

The Fed increases the money supply since its the buyer of last resort for government debt. It prints more money and loans it to the government. This new money is used to meet the government's bloated budget and keep up with UBI payments through the new US CBDC.

The prices of everything from food to real estate is climbing at an alarming rate. Economists and the government are in denial, stating that everything's under control and prices should return to normal relatively soon. Scandalously, the CPI is adjusted once more to show a lower than observed inflation rate. However the jig is up. Throughout 2030 and 2031, prices increase by many multiples. A financial crisis the likes no one has ever seen has arrived.

What happens if the global reserve currency is subject to hyperinflation? Its hard to say, especially for someone who isn't an economist. I can can say is that nothing good will come of it. I believe that the purchasing power of other currencies begins to drop as well. Countries all over the world begin to remove USD and US debt vehicles from their coffers in exchange for other assets and currencies if they haven't already. The Euro and Chinese Yuan begin to see widespread adoption as reserve currencies. Countries who have recognized Bitcoin as legal tender buy more BTC for their coffers.

Panic consumes the United States. There are shortages of many goods due to panic buying and supply chain disruption. People are seeing the prices of daily essentials go up everyday, leading to hording. This causes prices to be driven up even further. Riots and crime increase in the chaos. Unemployment skyrockets as many business are unable to afford wages and other operation costs. This directly leads to large swaths of the population becoming homeless. These people lose their incomes then lose their homes. They are unable to afford new homes due to rampant inflation. This crisis is larger than any other financial crisis the United States has ever faced.

In 2032, the US restructures its monetary system for the first time since the 1971. Rather than create a whole new currency and separate from the cultural weight the dollar held, the Federal Reserve restructures the dollar through their CBDC. You can exchange old dollars in cash or in bank accounts with dollars on the "decentralized" ledger at a 1000:1 ratio. The Fed may use this as an opportunity to get rid of physical cash. If they go through with this decision, there would likely be backlash. If reversed by either by popular demand to the Federal Reserve or by legislation, the new bills and coins will likely have new designs. Many people will exchange their fiat for cryptocurrencies.

I predict that the financial crisis will result in a mass extinction of alt-coins. Only a few cryptocurrencies with solid fundamentals will survive. Given its popularity and history, Bitcoin will likely be the cryptocurrency of choice. Many simply convert Bitcoin to the other cryptocurrencies to make use of their unique properties, essentially making them side-chains of Bitcoin. This massive increase in adoption will raise the price to over $4M of today's dollar.

Over the following years, the United States falls from global dominance. Many countries no longer use US dollars as a significant part of their reserves. Many opt for the Euro, the Yen, or the Yuan. A few small nations may actually back their currencies with gold, silver, or a basket of commodities. Over the decade more and more central banks add Bitcoin to their reserves. Several nations, including the United States, have even recognized Bitcoin as legal tender.

2036 and beyond

This section will deal with the aftermath of the Second Great Depression. I'll separate it into several parts for easy reading.

People and Culture

The 2030's will be known as a time of strife and change. The massive financial crisis, likely to be called the Second Great Depression, will force many businesses, organizations, and individuals to deal exclusively in Bitcoin. This will likely continue into the future. Due to the decentralized nature of Bitcoin, it will make organizations and individuals hard to tax. This will be especially true if more privacy preserving features are added to Bitcoin or many if people make use of the surviving privacy coins. As people abandon fiat and CBDC's, governments around the world start to lose tax revenue.

The world is separated into two classes: those who use fiat and those who use Bitcoin. The poor will likely be unable to spend their Bitcoin because they have none or they are using it as their only form of savings. These people will have little to no choice but to use CBDCs. However, any spare penny they have will be used to stack sats. People who are able to use Bitcoin for their daily transactions are the new wealthy elite. No matter what class you are a part of, you will likely have Bitcoin or are trying to transition your wealth into it.

The rise of Bitcoin, the returns its early adopters received, the second depression, and the follies of government monetary policy will transform the zeitgeist. Consumerism will be seen as wasteful and foolish. No one but the extremely rich could afford to spend and borrow as recklessly as we did before the depression. Living below your means will become trendy. Minimalism will make a huge comeback. Most people will have only a few devices; the smartphone or its descendant will be king amongst them.

The entertainment industry will morph as a result of the depression. Economic hardship will make people less keen to buy games and movies. As a result, gaming and movie quality increases out of necessity. Movies aim to be rewatchable and memorable. Games are packed with long form, highly interactive content. Subscription services must offer more in order to attract customers. Artists must create pieces that are actually appealing and have lasting value. Even after the depression, people are less willing to depart with their bitcoin unless its for a good reason. So this trend will continue.

Governments

Governments will not like this one bit. Banning Bitcoin has been tried for decades, however it has proven to be an exercise in futility. Even if they could, banning would likely do nothing but harm a still healing economy. What government try to solve the problem depends on whether or not chain analysis is still viable. If it is still viable, government will likely require wallets to be tied to identities. They will also attempt to pressure the developers into abandoning any privacy features to be added to Bitcoin. This will fail because only one rogue developer is needed to create an upgrade that makes chain analysis extremely difficult, if not impossible. Governments may also attempt to force citizens into using bitcoin with multi-sig addresses with a script clause allowing said government to confiscate coins. This will also fail spectacularly.

Governments may attempt to regulate full nodes and mining. This will be an attempt to blacklist addresses linked to tax evasion or other illicit activities. Of course the ban can be lifted for a hefty fee. However, mining equipment became cheaper due to ASIC's catching up to Moore's law in the early 2020's. There will be millions of old miners and new energy efficient, but weak miners all around the world. It is unlikely that governments will be able to attain and maintain more than 50% of the hashrate. Even if this was successful, all it would take is a small percentage of the hashrate to be made up of dissident miners to allow for "illegal" transactions. This would of course lead to a fork. The fork free of regulation and taxes is likely to become the more valuable fork.

Some governments will likely employ more old-school techniques to gain revenue. I predict a large increase in civil asset forfeiture. Tax collectors going home to home may make a return in some jurisdictions. Bitcoin's informational nature allows for it to be hidden quite effectively.

All of this will take place in the late 2030's and early 2040's. From 2045 and onwards, governments around the world will be starved of tax and inflationary revenue. Bitcoin will force governments to become smaller, and more lean. Economically free and sovereign zones will attract exponentially more business than large nations of old. I predict that many states, provinces, territories, and cities will begin to petition their governments to become economically free zones. Greed and power have always motivated governments, so they will capitulate in an attempt to leech off the prosperity of these zones. This will be the undoing of the nation state as we know it.

Crime

As nation states become weaker and weaker, organized crime will have a new resurgence. Organized crime returned in a big way during the depression. In the 1920's, alcohol was the main source of revenue for gangs. After prohibition, drugs were the primary sources of income for organized criminals. This is likely to remain the case through the mid and late 21st century. Drugs produced in more lenient economic zones will be sold to people in more restrictive areas. However, after the second depression, theft and extortion will make up a larger portion of their revenue. These organized gangs will likely employ threats of physical violence, burglary, scams, and hacking to make profit.

Bitcoiners will be the targets of muggings, assault, kidnapping, torture, or even murder. There will likely be a few prominent cases of Bitcoiners getting tortured or held for ransom. If the Bitcoin developers haven't already implemented anti-chain analysis features, it will become top priority. This reality will cause a cultural shift. While in the 2020's it was cool to brag about how much you've stacked, it will become a sign of stupidity or arrogance. Probably both. It will become extremely rude to ask to see someone's wallet. If you show someone how much Bitcoin you have, it is a display of high trust for that person.

The Economy

Most online commerce runs on Bitcoin. Of course, most sites still take CBDCs and fiat along side BTC, but few will take government currencies exclusively. With the second great depression, many businesses increased automation to previously unseen levels. People who lost their jobs to the machines subsist off the gig economy and UBI.

Those who still have jobs will experience a shift in the workplace. They will likely still experience some form of automation, leading to shorter work days and work weeks. When signing on to a new job, you choose which currency you'd like to be paid in. Working remotely is now the norm. Retirement options will be limited as many people simply opt to save Bitcoin in long term cold storage.

With the collapse of the fiat system, we see a return to gold standard price levels. The financial crisis will likely force a reform of the healthcare system in the US, leading to cheaper prices. Economically free zones will be even cheaper to live in. Since Bitcoin is disinflationary and people still lose their sats, Bitcoin's price will slowly increase over time. Prices will deflate just due to that. Combine that with the deflationary force of technological progress, and you will see a drastic decrease in the cost of living all over the world.
2  Economy / Speculation / A Brazen Prediction of the Future on: June 08, 2021, 04:02:38 AM
I've always been interested in predictions of the future. I don't mean tepid, noncommittal predictions. I mean bold predictions with more solid dates. I understand the rational for tepid predictions. Its hard to say what will happen for sure. However, I think that people are too afraid of being wrong. I love seeing the depictions of the late 20th and early 21st century from the 1950's and 60's. They make pretty bold predictions and its fun to see what they've gotten right or wrong.

While some aspects of the topic aren't fun, I want to make interesting and bold predictions of how Bitcoin could affect our future. I'll write this as a timeline with each section denoting a period of time. I'll make price, adoptions, economic, and sociopolitical predictions in each section.

Before we begin, I'll want to make this clear. Do your own research! I'm not a financial advisor, so this is not financial advice. I'm not an economist, political scientist, or sociologist either. So I'm more than likely getting a lot of this wrong, but I'm okay with that. This is pure speculation on my part based on what I've learned from my dive into the Bitcoin rabbit hole. I barely did any research specifically for this, I just wanted to have fun writing about a possible future.

Let's jump in!

Q3 2021 - 2023

By the end of 2021, Bitcoin will reach $100,000. This is due to several factors: increased institutional adoption, Taproot activation, and the first Bitcoin ETF approved by the SEC. The first two pump it past $50,000. The Bitcoin ETF, for better or for worse, doubles the value of Bitcoin. One hundred grand is likely to be a psychologically significant. There will probably be a large boost in online retailers willing to accept Bitcoin. Once at $100,000, many institutions and retail investors FOMO in. The price will likely increase to $150,000 before crashing back down to $70,000 or $80,000 due to FUD in the first couple quarters of 2022. I believe the FUD will center around some countries banning retailers from accepting Bitcoin. An alternate or accompanying piece of FUD would be tainted coins. This crash marks the start of the bear market. Throughout 2022 and 2023, the price will keep around $100,000.

During this time, the world will begin going "back to normal" from the global pandemic. As the more locked down areas begin opening up, the supply chain will return to full functionality. Of course, the US president at the time will take credit. Prices will drop some due to the healing supply chain. Economists will proceed to dismiss the fears of inflation as unfounded panic. An economic boom will happen as things open up. The stock market will be glowing! A new roaring 20's!

Governments will use the windfall to further increase spending and borrowing. The Biden administration has already announced a budget of $6T. The US and EU perform limited tests of their CBDCs during this time. The US also prepares for the next presidential election in 2023. I don't believe that Joe Biden will continue being president due to his age and health issues. Kamala Harris will likely be the favored candidate for the Democratic party. I'm not sure who will be the favored candidate for the Republicans, but I think Donald Trump may run again. He will either be in the Republican party or run as a third party candidate a la Bull Moose Party. I think that this is dependent on how the 2022 elections go.

The next big upgrade to the base chain will be [Secure the Bag](https://bitcoinmagazine.com/technical/secure-the-bag-cutting-transactions-in-half-to-resolve-bitcoin-network-congestion). This upgrade essentially lets users split their transactions into two. One transaction is the sending transaction. Its confirmed quickly at a higher fee. The second is the receiving transaction. This transaction has low fees and can be spent from since it is guaranteed by the sending transaction. This can help increase transaction throughput on-chain which subsequently speeds up transactions in any layer above.

 I believe that some sort of computing functionality such as a smart contract equivalent will come to Lightning or as its own layer. The Lightning network is adoption is slowing growing each year. New use cases pop up for the second layer network.

2024

Another halving! A presidential election! 2024 is likely to be a significant year for many. The price is on an upswing, starting a new bull market. It seems as though every bull market brings a new trend like ICOs, DeFi, and NFTs. I'm going to say that the next trend will be DAO's and governance. This will get many people into legal trouble due to DAO's still being a legal gray area. There'll obviously be scam DAO's. Somebody will find a way to fit a pyramid or Ponzi scheme into one. In anticipation of the halving, the price increases from its usually $100K

September 16, 2024. The halving occurs. Each block now only yields 3.125 BTC in block rewards. The price increases by a good amount. Probably to $230,000 per BTC.

Riding on the booming economy, Kamala Harris becomes president of the United States. Feminists rejoice! This incidentally causes Bitcoin's price to shoot up, getting it to $300,000. Many believe that her Congress will continue to the increase of borrowing and spending. CBDC tests are ongoing.

Institutional adoption is beginning to ramp up again in anticipation of a parabolic move as a result of the halving and in anticipation of further inflation. Secure the Bag is finally included into the code as a soft fork, increasing the price to $350,000.

If it hasn't already, Amazon will start accepting Bitcoin, both on chain and via lightning. This will trigger a cascade of online retail acceptance. Big box stores will begin to accept Bitcoin for online purchases only. This bullish action will increase the price to $390,000.

Throughout the year, mining is becoming an extremely popular hobby. ASIC manufacturers will begin to create energy efficient, but relatively weak miners for the average person. You can get around $2000 a year from the miner. These quickly sell out. Old miners are in huge demand. The sudden increase of power consumption will probably cause a power outage in a small to medium sized US city. This will lead to regulations on mining. Some places may require a license to mine. This FUD will drop the price back down to $300,000.

2025 - 2027

The bull is charging through the market! Stocks, Bitcoin, and other assets are increasing in price! Bitcoin gets to $500,000. Multiple Bitcoin ETFs have been approved at this point. Bitcoin makes up small to medium sized amounts of many people's retirement. Bitcoin is slowly becoming a part of everyone's life for better or for worse. Some games and content creation utilize the lightning network. A few driverless vehicles are taking Bitcoin as fare. There are green energy startups that use Bitcoin mining to bootstrap their operations. I predict that 15% of the global population will own some sats or be exposed to Bitcoin in one way or another by the end of 2025. 8% use it in their daily lives.

As Bitcoin ages, the frequency of FUD reduces. Adoption is only growing as time goes on. The last bit of FUD will probably come from tainted coins and quantum computers. I think this time around, FUD from quantum computing will be what brings Bitcoin from a peak of $1.4M to $900,000. The bear market will last from the end of 2025 to 2027. Bitcoin bounces between $1.2M and $1.3M for the duration of the bear market.

Hodling sats is becoming a symbol of status. People associate a large bag with foresight and/or wealth. It becomes trendy to brag about how many sats you have and how long ago you invested in Bitcoin. If you have 1 or more BTC, you're a legend. This will start to backfire however. Bitcoiners begin to be the targets of scams and theft. This will slowly escalate to violence in the coming years.

Meanwhile, the M2 and M3 money continues to increase. The official CPI increases by 3% in 2025, 3% in 2026, and 4% in 2027. From 2020 to 2027, the official CPI has increased by an alarming 26%. Alternate stats show a more grim +55% increase in prices. A $15 an hour minimum wage is passed in the United States with plans to increase it by 3% each year for 10 years. Many businesses, large and small, begin looking to automation to save money.

2028

The roaring 2020's are coming to a close and people are nervous about what happens next. There are rumblings about the eerie similarities between the 1920's and the 2020's. If history is anything to go by, many people believe that a Great Depression is coming next. This fear is not unfounded. The only thing keeping hyperinflation at bay is the governments of the world attempting to stem the velocity of money and somewhat reducing the printing of money. The debt to GDP ratio is through the roof.

Counteracting the negative energy, another halving will be taking place this year! At this point in time, Halvings have become a sort of mini-holiday for many Bitcoiners. After the halving the price slowly increases to $1.5M. Some are beginning to lament the stability of Bitcoin's price. They're used to the crazy price action of assets in the past decade. Stocks and real estate prices continue to moon.

Inflation continues its march across the economy. The CPI is adjusted once again. The official CPI states an increase of 5%. However, under the previous standard, prices have increased 11%. As faith in the US dollar continues to fade, many are turning to Bitcoin, gold, and other assets. Central banks around the world are beginning to publicly add Bitcoin to their coffers. This increases the price of Bitcoin to a whopping $2M.

Earlier this year, the EU has officially released their CBDC. A few months later, the US announces their CBDC. It is slated to be released early 2029. The EU, US, and China all announce UBI programs through their digital currencies to encourage adoption.



This post is getting long so I'll go over the 2030's and 2041 and beyond in either a second post or in the comments as a continuation. Don't be afraid to call my predictions BS and post your own!
3  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Looking for feedback on a new scaling solution - Project Boreas on: April 09, 2021, 11:16:01 PM
I've modified the living whitepaper and redid the math. Also, the whitepaper is now just a Notion page.
4  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Looking for feedback on a new scaling solution - Project Boreas on: March 27, 2021, 03:06:19 AM
Okay, I've completely overhauled the whitepaper. Instead of being on the wiki, I'm uploading it as a pdf for now. It is easier to maintain since Github Markdown doesn't seem to support LaTeX. If anyone knows how to create equations in Github Markdown, let me know!

Living Whitepaper: https://www.notion.so/davidnettey/Scaling-Bitcoin-Through-Off-chain-Verification-and-On-chain-Settlement-d1b59017badd4707b6fadf7db620d7f2

The gist of the pivot is this:
  • No longer using ORV as the consensus mechanism
  • Using Avalanche as consensus mechanism
  • The second layer network now acts like a decentralized payment processor
  • Users control their own funds

Abstract:

Bitcoin was created as a new type of currency that could improve on the short falls of fiat currencies. It is decentralized, permission-less, immune to hyperinflation, and open source. Despite all these advantages, it does have flaws and limitations. One of the most pressing limitations in Bitcoin is scaling. Bitcoin has a low transaction throughput, about 3 to 7 transactions per second [5]. When the network is congested, transaction fees can skyrocket. In order for Bitcoin to be used widely as a peer to peer cash system, it must solve its scaling issues.

To increase transaction speeds, we can make use of a second layer network. This network will act as a verification layer, allowing transactions to be viewed and spent much faster. The Avalanche consensus mechanism will be used to track and verify transactions off-chain. The Bitcoin network will act as the settlement layer. A user's wallet will periodically post a clearing transaction to the Bitcoin network containing verified but unsettled transactions. In order to save on fees, the clearing transaction will be comprised of multiple off-chain transactions. The second layer network essentially acts as a decentralized, trustless bank card issuer and payment processor for the Bitcoin network.

Let me know if there are any improvements I can make!
5  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Looking for feedback on a new scaling solution - Project Boreas on: March 20, 2021, 10:52:28 PM
i was more tweaking your idea of the 1 treasury address with 15 nodes managing it.. and sugesting that 1 address with a 10of15 is ripe for abuse via 10 colluding nodes raiding the share of 15 to pay out to the 10
leaving the 5 pennyless and not in control

Ah okay, you were just using 15 nodes in the network as a whole for an example.

as for your 2/3 collective and an elected node puts together..(facepalm)
that randomly elective node could just choose 2/3rds (10 of 15) nodes it prefers.. leaving the 1/3rd not in control.
imagine it your way.
you and 14 other people colect together and make addresses your way 10of15. you 'feel' you have some control of the collective because you see a unique address. and so you start establishing customers/users within your branch of the DAG.

but 10 nodes in your collective have colluded with each other to make 'your unique address' with THEIR prefered scripts.... and raid your pile of funds in your branch
Good point. I didn't take the remaining third into consideration. How about this:
     a. Each node creates a random shared secret
     b. The nodes elect a random node
     c. The elected node puts together 2/3 of the shared secrets to generate a new secret. This will be the network's private key.
     d. The elected node creates new shared secrets and distributes them to each node on the network
This way any 2/3 of the network can reproduce the key, including the third left out when the key was originally created. I chose 2/3 since it seems to be the standard assumption for BFT systems, that at least 2/3 of the nodes are honest.

remember users dont read raw tx data or 'read-by-hand' the makeup of the script
Can you elaborate more on this?

you dont need to elect a node to create the addresses then distribute them
instead everyone shares with everyone. and they all individually make the (1)+14 address public address requiring (1)+9 sig. if they all done the math right.. they all get the same address result. they then push to each other the address to confirm they all performed the math correctly
.. no trust is needed. no elected node is needed. .. everyone independently makes the multisig
and then double checks with each other they got matching results
all thats required is the code algorithm for forming a address is that participants just get 15 addresses and put them in a certain order. then they can all do that independantly

..as for elaborating.. most average joes dont know code and cant understand what raw tx data or know the technicals of how key creation methods work. so you need to have a user front end /graphic interface that can check which of the 15 addresses are important so that the user knows funds in his address require his permission..

i say this because current idea's of future bitcoin transaction formats for privacy will HIDE how and who is involved in making the multisig. which is a audit/control flaw. it means  no one will know if its a 3-5 or 2-6 or 10-15 and not know which addresses signed which. leaving it open to exploitation by collusion
so ensuring you have a clear open way for users to clarify they are important. without them having to know code/cryptography or binary.. will help

like i said. a user putting his public key first and then the rest where the code treats key 1 as primary essential key. the user can just make the multisig address and check his key is first. and so know his permission is always needed.

Thanks for your patience, I really appreciate it!
So the essential key would always be in the custody of the user (i.e. never backed up via secret sharing)? If so, how would we recover funds in the address if the user were to ever go offline, like if their phone were destroyed?
I ask this because that address would be part of the treasury. If someone wanted to move bitcoin out of the network, to cold storage for example, the network would need to be able to perform the transaction using the address if necessary. If there was ever a run on the network, I'd like for everyone to be able to get their sats back.
6  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Looking for feedback on a new scaling solution - Project Boreas on: March 20, 2021, 06:11:27 PM
i was more tweaking your idea of the 1 treasury address with 15 nodes managing it.. and sugesting that 1 address with a 10of15 is ripe for abuse via 10 colluding nodes raiding the share of 15 to pay out to the 10
leaving the 5 pennyless and not in control

Ah okay, you were just using 15 nodes in the network as a whole for an example.

as for your 2/3 collective and an elected node puts together..(facepalm)
that randomly elective node could just choose 2/3rds (10 of 15) nodes it prefers.. leaving the 1/3rd not in control.
imagine it your way.
you and 14 other people colect together and make addresses your way 10of15. you 'feel' you have some control of the collective because you see a unique address. and so you start establishing customers/users within your branch of the DAG.

but 10 nodes in your collective have colluded with each other to make 'your unique address' with THEIR prefered scripts.... and raid your pile of funds in your branch
Good point. I didn't take the remaining third into consideration. How about this:
     a. Each node creates a random shared secret
     b. The nodes elect a random node
     c. The elected node puts together 2/3 of the shared secrets to generate a new secret. This will be the network's private key.
     d. The elected node creates new shared secrets and distributes them to each node on the network
This way any 2/3 of the network can reproduce the key, including the third left out when the key was originally created. I chose 2/3 since it seems to be the standard assumption for BFT systems, that at least 2/3 of the nodes are honest.

remember users dont read raw tx data or 'read-by-hand' the makeup of the script
Can you elaborate more on this?

imagine it my way
atleast have a stop method that it needs YOUR authority and atleast 9 others to authorise movement from YOUR branch of funds

like properly in the code users own address is paramount and significant. and a way to have a check mechanism to ensure the users key is significant/needed. in the multisig

i have seen many people think they are in a 2of3 multisig and provided with a public key. but found out the other 2 never NEEDED him to take his funds from him.

a better multisig is a 1special +1of2  in a 3way multisig
                               1special +3of5 in a 8 way multisig
                               1special +5of8 in a 9way multisig
                               1special +9 of 14 in a 15 way multisig

I really like this idea. It stops any one party from accessing the funds without the permission of the other. Maybe this could be combined with the secret shares algorithms to make sure the funds are always accessible.
7  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Looking for feedback on a new scaling solution - Project Boreas on: March 20, 2021, 05:33:24 AM
To separate the wallets (mobile users) from the nodes, I think I'll change it so that the treasury is one multi-sig address. Each private key is protected and backed up by a shared secret algorithm. I explain in detail here:

i woud not recommend a single address multisig requiring 10of15
because 10 can collude and share out the value associated with all 15.. meaning 5 just see their balance disapear and then have those 5 liable to all of its sub-users of their 5 branches
its the typical exchange 'we got haxxed' excuse

..
try a new scheme. 15 addresses for 15 nodes 'treasury' but were its not a 10 of 15 but instead:
a treasury block of 15 addresses/UTXO updates

each address assigned to a node manager. where the 'secret' is a build up of the specific manager plus 10 others.
(m1)+10of14    (still 15 but but the special contingent 1 is the specific manager assigned that address)

that way the manager cant raid his own pot without other authorisation. but now nor can other managers raid the pot without him
users then are either randomly assigned to a manager or choose their favourite manager due to what services they are associated with. and each manager then 'controls' its own userbase.
much like brank branches

also you can have users in the offchain. have their addresses be multisig.  but also contingent on the user+plus their manager+9other treasurers.. all cross signing off on the payment
(u)+(m1)+9of14

that way users have some control and its not all managed/abused by a manager or collusion of managers
a payment wont be valid unless a users sig is part of the deal

in practice this is hard because most users dont read raw tx data to check if their key is put into the contingent position or just part of the regular collective 14.
but you can easily code some checker for that

I really like the idea of having the users work together with nodes on the network in order to deposit into or withdraw from the treasury. I might be misreading your post but it sounds like the treasury is rather dependent on these 15 manager nodes. How about each deposit into the network has its own multi-sig address? The address can formed like this:
 
1. The user generates a private key using a shared secret algorithm.
2. The nodes on the network generate a private key:
     a. Each node creates a random shared secret
     b. The nodes elect a random node
     c. The elected node puts together 2/3 of the shared secrets to generate a new secret. This will be the network's private key.
3. The elected node and the user both create a public key from their respective private keys
4. The multi-sig address is formed from the public keys and propagated through the network
5. The user sends a shared secret to each node online at the time. It would take 2/3 of the nodes online at the time to reconstruct the private key.

At the end of this process each node should have the address, their own shared secret, and a shared secret from the user. All the multi-sig addresses generated this way are the "treasury". If someone needs to transfer funds outside the network, the nodes can coordinate to recover bitcoin in these addresses. The private keys are backed up on the network without any one node knowing all two keys required to unlock the address. Since the treasury is spread out across different addresses, there isn't a single point of failure. If one address in compromised, the other addresses are likely to be safe.

A malicious actor could take funds out of an address in two ways:

1. Control 2/3 of the network at the time the address was made
2. Control the user and the randomly elected node at the time the address was made

First one could be deterred through normal anti-Sybil attack countermeasures like staking or PoW. The second one is tougher. Sybil attack countermeasures can help keep the bad actor from spamming nodes. The randomness makes it less likely the bad nodes get picked the larger the network becomes. I'm having trouble thinking of other ways around this. Another thing is that I would be worried about how much bandwidth a protocol like this could take up.
8  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Looking for feedback on a new scaling solution - Project Boreas on: March 19, 2021, 12:53:44 AM
I've been doing research on alternative consensus mechanisms and I came across Avalanche consensus. It seems to fit what I'm looking for! It seems very scalable and fast. The only issues I have with it is that it doesn't seem to have a baked in way to prevent spam and Sybil attacks. These can be deterred by using existing methods such as staking for Sybil attacks and small amounts of proof of work for spam, among other methods.

Any thoughts on it?
9  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Looking for feedback on a new scaling solution - Project Boreas on: March 12, 2021, 03:59:49 AM
you can make your nano description simpler.
instead of mixing metaphores of blocks and transactions.
just say each transaction received gets its own PoW id which includes a hash of the previous received tx

calling transactions blocks makes it unclear if you are talking about a true block (a batch/list of transactions) or a special tx that has a hash
Gotcha, I was trying to keep to the language that Nano uses when describing their tech. I just went through the Nano description in the living whitepaper and made some changes for clarity.
Let me know what you think!

i can see lots of other methods for those controlling the 'communal treasury' attacking the network
(someone already hinted on whales as the hubs.. but there are other attack vectors too)
Could you give me a couple examples? I'd like to list them as issues to discuss on Github as well.

separately
your idea is a pyramid. where those select special people in control of the 'open block' 'communal treasury' which does the main balance of deposits/withdrawals/spends for its lower members of the network become a hub/bank(top of pyramid members)
remember.. mobile users wanting to shop and go at grocery stores wont be full nodes running the 'blocks' of the network. they will just be making their own 'spend' transactions. to the 'communial treasury' nodes using their cell phone and its then the communal nodes(hubs) that then aggregate and compare between themselves

its great in concept as it makes transactions auditable by a network to make sure nodes are not abusing each other.. so +1 vs LN's model... but reality is that its still inevitably a hub model where the hubs control what goes out and in. which will also be LN's downfall
To separate the wallets (mobile users) from the nodes, I think I'll change it so that the treasury is one multi-sig address. Each private key is protected and backed up by a shared secret algorithm. I explain in detail here: https://github.com/netteydavid/ProjectBoreas/issues/3
As for the hub problem, I've been thinking of ways to improve or completely replace ORV. I'm cataloging ideas here: https://github.com/netteydavid/ProjectBoreas/issues/2. An improvement idea, as mentioned by dkbit98, is to implement some sort of quadratic voting system.

Thanks for the feedback!
10  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Looking for feedback on a new scaling solution - Project Boreas on: March 11, 2021, 08:22:27 PM
1. The paper doesn't mention how to move Bitcoin between main network/on-chain to DAG network and vice versa
I'll go through the living whitepaper and clear that up, thanks!

2. On GitHub repository, i would recommend you add more information README.md.
I was unsure what else to put in the README since the project is brand new. I'll add stuff like the goal of the project and info on contributing.


Thanks for the feedback!




11  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Looking for feedback on a new scaling solution - Project Boreas on: March 11, 2021, 08:08:55 PM
Sybil Attack is not so easy to solve and I don't like solution you have for each vote to be weighted by account's balance, that would give huge voting power to whales without some quadratic voting solution.
Also you say that accounts with zero balance would not count, but what if I create many accounts with some minimal balance just enough to get multiple votes, or imagine scenario if bitcoin whale splitting his bitcoin in multiple addresses to gain more power.
Not so hard to imagine attacks on network or making it totally centralized.

Thanks for the feedback! Good point on the bitcoin whales. I didn't take that into consideration. I'll do more research on quadratic voting.
I opened an issue about alternatives or improvements for ORV. Any thoughts on the comment I posted there?
Link: https://github.com/netteydavid/ProjectBoreas/issues/2#issuecomment-796400209
12  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Looking for feedback on a new scaling solution - Project Boreas on: March 11, 2021, 04:28:58 AM
My curiosity about Bitcoin has been on and off for the past couple years. Predictably, my curiosity about the technology and its implications usually peaked with the market. This year, I decided to just dive fully into the ocean that's Bitcoin and cryptocurrency. I've been absorbing as much information as I could for the past couple months. Reviewing myself on how Bitcoin works and learning about how other cryptocurrencies work. I've also committed financially. Glad to say that I'm on my way to owning at least one Bitcoin!

I'm a developer, so what excites me at heart is the technology behind Bitcoin. I have no idea how Nakamoto thought of this, but the dude's a genius. But like most of you know there are tradeoffs with proof-of-work and the blockchain. What I'm concerned the most about is the speed of transactions and the fees. So I learned about the Lightning Network. I have high hopes for the project, but I really wanted to take a shot at creating a scaling solution. I also wanted to contribute to the community, both Bitcoin and the open source community. So I've created something I call Project Boreas.

I was inspired by the fee-less and fast transaction speeds in the Nano network. I thought maybe something similar to their technology could be applied to a second layer network. I wrote up my first whitepaper and published it on a Github repository. I also created a living whitepaper so that any changes can be put there while keeping the original. Also, I plan on making the project open source so anyone can use the idea.

Right now, the original and living whitepaper is all I have on the repository. I'd really appreciate it if anyone could critique the paper. Any helpful criticism is welcome. It can be spelling, grammar and structure. Critiques on the soundness of the idea itself are especially welcome. Thanks!

Github: https://github.com/netteydavid/ProjectBoreas

Original whitepaper: https://github.com/netteydavid/ProjectBoreas/blob/main/Directed_Acyclic_Graphs_as_a_Second_Layer_Scaling_Solution_for_Bitcoin.pdf

Living Whitepaper: https://www.notion.so/davidnettey/Scaling-Bitcoin-Through-Off-chain-Verification-and-On-chain-Settlement-d1b59017badd4707b6fadf7db620d7f2

Issues: https://github.com/netteydavid/ProjectBoreas/issues
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