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1  Economy / Speculation / Re: what are the chances for a democratic revolution in china on: April 29, 2014, 07:11:17 PM
YAAAAAAAAAAAAA The USA left that stance 100's of years ago..  Fema could throw you all into concentration camps and you would not lift a finger.  The America american's are so proud of is LONG dead, long dead.  Only a country of debt slaves remains, scared of their own shadow.  No real American would of let the "patriort" act be signed in, it's over boys.

You don't actually know that much about the US, do you?

First, FEMA (the Federal Emergency Management Agency) is primary tasked with natural disaster relief (hurricane cleanup, flood evacuation, etc.). When it comes to throwing people in "concentration camps", they are at the bottom of the list next to the US Postal Service.

Second, public knowledge of those types of actions by the Federal government result in a enormous PR backlash on the administration, see Waco and Ruby Ridge as prime examples.

Third, there are more armed citizens in the US than there are military and paramilitary soldiers in the entire world (over 120 MILLION). Owning and using firearms is a cultural phenomenon in the US, has been for over 200 years, and this is very unlikely to change in our lifetimes. Forcible disarmament is even less likely than anyone successfully occupying Afghanistan.

Awesome points. I heard that FEMA concentration camp and plastic coffin theory. Actually, FEMA has tens thousands of plastic coffins for shit-hits-the-fan scenarios when you don't want corpses everywhere. And also have modular camps that can be set up in a few hours, to provide emergency shelter in those cases.

In regards to revolutions... revolutions now are changed. We need only 2-3 victims to be outraged. Back in the history, the regimes would massacre thousands nobody would lift a finger (see Rwanda). Now, with mass communications, nobody would even think of that. Too many cameras even in Africa now. This technology can make us witnesses and nobody wants to witness that.

Nah. Revolutions are still a mix of social circumstances and opportunity slated with a veneer of outrage and ideology, although now it's easier to find excuses and easier for the revolutionaries to communicate.

Don't lump me in with the guy who said Americans don't have more freedoms than the Chinese, although the gap is getting narrower and narrower every day with things like the super secret no fly list you can get on based on random suspicion.

But a very salient example - lots of victims of governmental violence and neglect in the USA. Lots of people feel distrust in government (in fact the majority consider the government a threat to liberty and 37% fear the government, 19% trust). People don't think the democratic two-party system works, much less the justice system, now we have an innocent American citizen teenager killed by drones.

Still, nobody's even thinking revolution. Because people still mostly have what they want in America, that is, a life, and also people know that any such attempt will be hammered down hard, perp lives destroyed with no chance of success, and even talking will get you in trouble.

The exact same thing goes in China, except they trust their gov't a lot more in polls.
2  Economy / Speculation / Re: what are the chances for a democratic revolution in china on: April 28, 2014, 07:57:07 PM
i see the point about Confucianism teaching people to be obedient to authority.
but wouldn't the internet change the perspectives of at least the urban Chinese (you know, the one's who have internet)?
i mean, these people are not cut out from the outside world like the older generations were, they see how people live in other countries where freedom is abundant (well at least when compared with China).
is there really no chance these people will gang up on their dictators?
with the sheer amount of people they have they could simply march on Beijing and throw those communist party tyrants from their collars into a jail cell.

They don't see the CPC as dictators and just because we value (sometimes) freedom of speech doesn't mean they want to die for it.

Do you think Chinese people live in a bottle? No, they know what democracy is. They just don't care enough, for a variety of reasons, including culture, current welfare, traditional values, party propaganda etc.

Everybody knows the principles of democracy, and communism, in relatively prosperous countries. Much like communist thought spreading in the West did not incite revolutions in well-to-do Western countries, it's unrealistic to expect just the knowledge that Americans sometimes value freedom of speech and choosing between two dummy candidates and interchangeable parties to cause a revolt in China. If the communist party makes it miserable to live there then it will happen, basically.
3  Economy / Speculation / Re: what are the chances for a democratic revolution in china on: April 28, 2014, 05:03:45 PM
Zero.

The Communist Party of China is widely approved of, even in Hong Kong polls. They're seen as the creators of the Chinese economic miracle and the restorers of China's rightful place among the superpowers.

Some naive Westerners at times assume there would be a revolution against lack of freedom of speech, or not having democratic elections etc. This is completely ignoring the history of revolutions. Mass revolutions aren't born of imported foreign intellectual ideals. They're born of lack of welfare/poverty, perceived injustice, and/or ambition.

The Soviet Union was failing economically and the new glasnost policy brought issues of injustice and oppression to the press, causing local uprisings leading to the fall of the union. This is exactly what is not happening China. There's no incoming "glasnost" to create public outrage and the people don't want to "mess with success".

Censorship etc. is discussed in the open and as far as I know Chinese people they mostly seem happy with the state of affairs - this is in stark contrast with E. Euro people I know still.

Don't really see a revolution benefiting bitcoin in the near term either. You don't need an alternative currency or money laundering in times of revolution.
4  Economy / Speculation / Re: BTC drop to next level coming...bail the F out now! on: April 27, 2014, 08:45:18 PM
Sorry to be another newbie armchair analyst but I don't see any common technical analysis patterns in the https://bitcoinity.org/markets bitstamp chart when I tried to look for them. What exactly did you find?

I mean the only pattern I can find as for current events is
1. bear market
2. we may have recently hit a double or triple bottom (indicating an upturn) BUT the time between the bottoms is days not making it reliable. This means most likely nothing, but if anything, we should have hit bottom and the market is now testing the price, right?

As for fundamentals the fundamental value of bitcoin never depended on China, despite how recent news have been about China. So nothing there either except reason for squeamish people to sell.

So, what?
5  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why be scared of BitCoin? Greed and control. Also, any advice on BTC trading on: April 27, 2014, 08:31:43 PM
Bitcoin is great fun to day trade BUT it would be a terrible currency to learn how to day trade with. the liquidity is terrible, and volatility is terrible (and excellent  Cheesy). forex is a better way to learn (lower cost), but a lot less profitable. either way it is making a BIG decision to learn to day trade, because it takes years, and you can be sure that if you give up, you will give up at a big fat loss. I would also advise that you have developed your own ideas about trading before you set out, and figuring out things yourself is important in this game.

If you are going learn to trade on Bitfinex my advice would be (apart from dont!) let your low orders fill (rather than market order) and keep an eye on the liquidity (your exit).

bottom line, dont let day trading ruin the loot to be made from holding!

Theoretically speaking with BTC you can invest just a little, do deals easily online without rentals, and the high volatility actually makes it very feasible to day trade with your relatively small amount. A stable or immutable market basically means you can't day trade effectively. But the liquidity though... yeah

Lots of trading guides out there. Might want to google turtle traders (don't buy anything though)
6  Economy / Speculation / Re: The People's Republic of China has successfully pumped and dumped Bitcoin on: April 27, 2014, 08:11:07 PM
In communist regimes, it's not unusual to have officials in high position who didn't get there by their competence, but by loyalty.

Hahaha. Yes, in communist regimes as you specified. Meanwhile in the USA gov't everybody is competent and go to their position through competence. As we've seen. Cheesy

Anyway there's no reason for somebody who can just take a huge bribe on a construction project to learn about pumping & dumping bitcoin. Gov't associated old farts in the west haven't understood btc and keep saying it's a waste of time; hard to believe the Chinese are that much smarter. Also gray markets actually tends to benefit China and any corrupt officials worldwide.

If you must see an adversarial angle here then how about this: at first China/PBC thought bitcoin is an oppositional force to dollar dominance and encouraged it. Then they realized most bitcoin are owned by westerners, and pumping it actually is profit to the west more than it is to the Chinese. So now it's discouraged.

Anyway I for one am buying now that it's low. Let whoever thinks like Buffett that btc has no intrinsic value be left behind.
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