We have been wipe sawing for the past few hours. Above resistance is definitely bullish which is a breakout from a double bottom. Below resistance is consolidation, neutral to slightly bearish.

https://i.imgur.com/vjp9vj3.jpg

Update:
Bullish trendline being tested now! Make or break now.

Short term chart:

Looks like we stabilized around this area. What is likely to happen is that we chop between 575-550, a consolidation since there is significant support and bitcoin sold off so fast. The fact is that we are still short term bearish because we tumbled almost 100 points from the recent high, until we see volume picking up on the bid side, I will stay short term bearish.

My yesterday's head and shoulder pattern broke down and target is 550. @ibankbitcoins

Bulls need to bid above the resistance line to invalidate this target. If we continue to breakdown, target is 550. @ibankbitcoins

Going up boys!

http://imgur.com/cIKlYue

Volume is a little low for the breakout. I would be concerned if volume doesn't pick up or if it fall back down below the trendline draw on chart.

Breakout of the trendline NOW!. Waiting for the bar to close, if it is confirmed. Classic TA says target will be 660usd/btc.

Classic TA books say that a confirmed inverse head and shoulder is bullish (above trendline). The pattern itself is not.

An ugly inverse head and shoulder appeared. It is ugly because there is a lot of choppy price actions. However, the most important point is that if we break above the trendline, it will be up. If not, we are stuck in this limbo state and imo bearish since we are in a short term down trend.f

 
http://ibankbitcoins.com/sites/default/files/resize/users/user1/Head-and-shoulder-chart-1099x884.jpg

Anyone know how to access btc/usd from yahoo finance's API?

The symbol is strange "btcusd=x". Trying to figure it out.

ibankbtc.

To clear things up, setup is only a buy on a breakout above 675 usd/btc like I originally described in the chart.

I think bitstamp and bit-e are pretty close while bitfinex is ahead. I used bit-e for my backtesting and previous analysis. Maybe i'll switch to another more volume exchange.

ibankbtc.

From my chart, it is clearly is not, a matter of subjectivity and you do have a point.

More importantly, volume and volatility hasn't picked up whether its broken or not. Hence breakout up or down is still valid.

ibankbtc.

Care to elaborate? I see price stable @640

You can see clearly that we are in a flag right now. Breakout above 680, and I am looking to buy. Target is around 800usd/btc based on measured move. I like this setup because it has a predefined risk, reward is based on a likely hood of reaching 800btc. With a stop at 620 dollars, the defined risk is 60.

During this consolidation, you can clearly see volume tapering off. People are taking profits here, selling is light but surely buyers are not letting this thing slide. Again, I won't be interested if it collapsed here, only interested if it makes new high above 680. If you like more details on technical analysis about bitcoin, you can follow me on my blog or twitter.

PS: I used bitcoinchart.com graph with bit-e data daily chart.

Bull market, going up boys.

Hey bitcoiners:

Gonna go over a simple trend continuation pattern today, a trading pattern called a flag. Flag can be bullish or bearish. Since bitcoin can’t be shorted (edit: not true bitfinex apparently can short), I will cover only bullish patterns.

What is a flag?

The pattern is exactly how it sounds; it looks like a flag with a pole. The pole part of the flag is the fast price rise and the flag itself is the consolidation period. A bull flag is a continuation pattern where the price stalls and consolidates briefly before continuing to rise further.

Characteristics of a bull flag pattern:

    -Prior to a flag pattern, the price of bitcoin(or stock) must be going up, in an uptrend. How do you define an uptrend?(Read concept explained section below).
    -Fast rise in price forms the pole of the flag.
    -Price stalls at this high price, the price volatility drops at this point. This is called consolidation or the flag itself. Volume is usually lower than average.
    -With step 1, 2, and 3, we call this a flag. A confirmed flag happens when the price continue to rise above the consolidation area and breakout above, making new high

There more information on how to trade a bull flag on my bitcoin blog

You can also follow me on twitter:

Last but not least, thank you for reading. Please leave a feedback on what you think about this type of analysis. I am deciding what my next post will be, let me know in the comments below:

    -Volatility of bitcoins (risk), how does it compare a real commodity?
    -A simple moving average trading system. A demo.

ibankbtc.

I've backtested bitcoin performance from 8-14-2011 til now. The results are interesting and hopefully you guys find it useful to build your own system as well.

Backtest specs:
Assume every trade is 1 BTC, buy at everyday’s open, sell at everyday’s close. This starts on 8/14/2011 -> 6/3/2014; I simulated late last night haha. Green day is defined by close greater than open. Red day is defined by close less than open.

Results:
*Total days: 1023
*Green days: 574 (56.61%)
*Red days: 440 (43.39%)
*Breakeven days: 9
*Average percent gain for green day: 3.679%
*Average percent loss for red day: -3.455%
*Average daily return is 0.4% compounding.

If you guys like what you see here or if you are interested in a trading system, I talk a little more about it on my technical bitcoin blog at http://ibankbitcoins.com/btc/starting-trading-system-here-some-basic-backtested-bitcoin-statistics



Leave a comment if you guys want to see anything in particular. I do one of these every few days.

Ibankbtc

I was quoted. Successful kid meme. More seriously. 600 dollar resistance didn't seem to stand a chance. Breakout was strong. I expect 700-710. My second target