Bloody hedgies playing games again. They ripped it up to $60k. Then ripped it down to $30k. Now ripped it back up to $50k. And once we get get close to $55k, they'll rip it back down again to $30k and maybe even below as people lose confidence. And once everything thinks its over, they'll rip it back up again. Rinse and repeat and profit. Fucking hedgies.

The current pump is a bit underwelming and some moonboys already calling for a triple peak blowofftop this cycle. This is quite hilarious

Mate you gotta look at the psychology plus the history, not just the history.

Back in 2013 there was a double blowofftop. So in 2016/2017 people were expecting a double blowofftop. Thats why it kept going up and up and up. What happened in the end? Just one big massive long blowofftop, not two. Followed by a very long bear market.

Now I'm 2021, people are looking back and are expecting a massive blowofftop followed by a bear market. So do you think it's gonna happen? You gotta think two steps ahead mate.

Stock to flow is almost guaranteed to be invalidated. Everyone is looking at it and thats why it won't happen. We won't go past $100k because most people are expecting it to.

Even if only a few people knew about stock to flow, the model itself is flawed. Stock to flow in the tails is not accurate. A Charizard Pokemon card has a fixed supply and a stock to flow of infinite, so stock to flow says the price is infinite. My stained toilet paper also has a fixed supply so stock to flow is infinite. But unfortunately no one would buy it so it's value is $0.

It's demand that is more important in determining price. Stock to flown does not take into account demand at all

The market is designed to catch people off guard and is designed to cause the greatest losses to the greatest amount of people. Generally what most people expect to happen doesnt happen for this very reason. The most likely outcome are the unlikely outcomes in my opinion: either rounded top at $75k in early 2022 or double top at $65k in late 2021. Then go sidewards in $30k-$45k for extended period of time. 

It actually looks like a mini version of March to April of 2021. I'm looking at your first pic. Which is a bit scary because there was a massive dump afterwards. Is it possible same might happen again?

They just need to communicate it a bit better than me. Say things like "Hey inflation is bad. Housing and food is more and more expense. We need better currency like bitcoin".

Most americans already know about bitcoin these days after elon musk and michael saylor so are more friendly. Around 1 in 3 americans have owned some bitcoin at some point. Even those that didn't own already are curious.

I think the fact that everyone is expecting a blowoff top is precisely why it won't happen. Everyone seems to have the idea that the cycle HAS to end with a blowoff top because the last 3 times, it did.

If you were a hedge fund and your goal was to maximise risk-adjusted profitability, what would you do, knowing this that everyone is expecting a blowoff top at say $130k+ ? Would you sell when everyone else is selling? Or would you make sure you've left enough space to dump all your bags on the normies. Keep in mind hedge funds, unlike normies, can't go in and out of positions as fast as us normies, because they have large sums of money. They would need to start off loading early. Which will lead to rounded top, as normies buy them bags but quickly gas out since normies alone will not be able to sustain rallies.

What would happen if someone, lets say Bob. Goes out and says "We got a problem. Previous governments have been doing too much QE. Inflation is going wild. We will now adopt Bitcoin as legal tender."

Would Bob get elected? Or would majority of people not like Bob?

Short term profits is exactly what institutions do. They don't buy and hold. If they bought at $20k which is what most institutions did early in the year, then $75k is around 4x which aligns with my target.

My point was they're not going to wait around for a $200k Bitcoin like them moonboys. They want to front run us normies on the way out of their positions. And catch us off guard. They do this bit exiting early. Resulting in a rounded top. Whilst most of us normies will be waiting for a blow off top. End result: institutions end up with profit, normies end up holding bags.

Will we get a parabolic blowoff top or a rounded top or top already in?

I think we will get an underwelming rounded top at around 75k maybe around early 2022.

Those slimey institutional types are going to tap the bloody brakes and will try to front run exit us normies.

I've heard some people mention the possibility of bitcoin eating away at negative yielding debt.

What does it mean exactly? Isn't bitcoin an asset? How can bitcoin eat away at the debt?

Can Lightning be used to scale Ethereum and if so, why the move to PoS and sharding instead?

I'm a newbie hoping to purchase BTC regularly (every month) and holding. What is the best exchange with best fees/withdrawl rates?

The three that look appealing to me are FTX and Kraken Pro and Binance.

FTX has free AUD deposit, 0.02% trading fee and free BTC withdrawal.
Kraken has free AUD deposit, 0.16% trading fee and 0.00015 BTC (around $10) withdrawal fee.
Binance has free AUD deposit, 0.1% trading fee and 0.00057 BTC (around $40) withdrawal fee.

It seems like FTX is slightly better in all aspects. However, there are no trading pairs with AUD on FTX (according to the website). However this contradicts the link below which says AUD trading pair was introduced in December 2020.

Would we need to convert to USD within the app/exchange first?

https://help.ftx.com/hc/en-us/articles/360054369972-New-BTC-Markets-on-FTX-BTC-AUD-and-BTC-EUR