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1  Economy / Economics / Re: Legalization and Standardization of Organ Donation on: November 18, 2021, 11:35:35 AM
So if I pay 100 people $500 just to sign up and sell me the exclusive right to one kidney for example, and I sell that right to xyz insurance company or government healthcare system (europe) for $50k, 1 death covers 100 bets. The cypto/VC investors see their investment grow since margins are so big.

And in just one page this went from saving lives to making a whole shitload of money...
It's now pretty understandable why some poeple have expressed their concerns previously, the focus of this is money, making money by selling stuff that in a normal society that has a serious problem with it should be donated at death.

Again:

Quote
1 death covers 100 bets.

Seriously, do you know how this would sound while you're pitching your project to investors? You're going to hear the mice's hiccups 10 floors below after this.

Anyhow, if you think poeple who take care of their own health so they might still be considered as donors at 40-50 are going to sell you the rights for 500$, you live in a bubble. The ones that will grab this cash will probably be rejected even for blood donation.

The initial target group are college students aged 18-25. This group is seen by the public as generally informed and with social mobility and capital. I do not intend my operation to become predatory and solely relying on low income or minority groups. That's bad press and terrible morally. At first I thought $5000 upfront and $5000 after death but a government official who works at USAID convinced me I could get away with offering people way less since its upfront and nothing is required of them, so this is where the $500 figure came from. $500 to a 40-50 year old is not much, lets be honest, but to someone under 30, could be significant. Especially considering I expect them to sell rights to multiple organs. Also, 40% of Americans have less than $400 in emergency savings according to the US Federal Reserve. I think at scale, one person could be able to secure about $25,000 to $50,000 with this program. Again all upfront, and with nothing required, until after their death. Because they are college kids, we assume they will live another 50+ years. As for my role, I am merely getting them to sign up, so I can sell the right to an insurance company or government agency handling insurance, similar to how if you get a $300,000 mortgage at say Bank of America, they may sell it to another bank or investment fund for say $250,000 upfront.


I'm a bit surprised how resistant people are of this. Again, the cash is upfront, we expect you to live for decades and forget about it, and the transplant only occurs after death. No one can see who's a donor, and who's where in line. There's very little room for foul play here. And I want to re-emphasize this, you can take your name off the list at anytime, you just have to pay back the amount give at a 10% annual interest rate from the time you borrowed it, up to 30 years. If the organ is no longer viable, you don't have to pay back anything but your estate/family won't receive the last payment.
2  Economy / Economics / Re: Legalization and Standardization of Organ Donation on: November 16, 2021, 09:34:09 AM
It is necessary before every project to know the negative aspects. Does this project encourage criminals who trade in human organs to kill more victims??!! If such a project is approved and the sale of organs becomes legal even if it is after death, perhaps this will be tantamount to obtaining an official certificate for gangs selling human organs to practice their work freely. There are many such gangs, especially in third world countries, who kill their victims and then sell their organs to Wealthy sick people who need these organs to continue their luxurious lives!!! What is the deterrent anymore for these criminal gangs to increase their brutal activities against innocent victims?!!
I know you have a good intention, but such a project may have very serious consequences for the safety of society.

I think the increase of crime is somewhat overstated. Sure crypto and bitcoin are used for crime but it pales in comparison to the amount of transactions that are normal. It would be hard for criminals to disrupt this process, a lot would have to go right for them.
-They would have to be colluding with a rich person in need of an organ. This person would tell them where they are in line. The blockchain would tell them this, but it wouldn't tell them who is infront or below them in line.
-If the rich person is not #1 in line, nothing can be done since the blockchain won't revel the identity of people on the waiting list.
-If the rich person is #1 in line or close to it, there's little incentive for him to pay for an illegal service and risk felony charges. At scale, people wouldn't have to wait long anyway, maybe days or weeks as oppose to the current 3-5+ years.
-They would have to know who's a donor and which organ have they sold rights to. People won't tell you this, just like most won't tell you their social security number. And the transplant only occurs after death. It would look suspicious for a new member to die within a week, or month, or year. I'm certain investigators/reporters/data scientists and AI would notice this anomaly and piece it all together which would result in the rich guys finances being scrutinized until they find the link to the criminal organization.

3  Economy / Economics / Re: Legalization and Standardization of Organ Donation on: November 16, 2021, 09:24:22 AM
How this going to work effectively is still a myth. Because the donar is paid upfront, and the donar agree for the organ transfer after his death. This could increase the chance of crime.

For example person A is rich and he has got good sum of money. Person B is poor and he agrees for the organ donation and gets upfront payment. Now person B is in the urge of transplantation for survival. By this time some people will intend to kill and take the organ. So, this isn't going to be more effective plan. If something offensive or controversial I'm sorry for that, nothing intentional. Human minds are built in such a way.

The idea is that for people becoming donors, there's close to zero risk. We are paying you to become a member and forget your on the list. Many fintech companies like Paypal/Coinbase have done the same. You then go and live your life. After death, your estate (family) would get paid out 2-3x whatever you were paid initially so in this case ($1500) which they can use for anything (funeral costs, cover daily expenses, etc) if the organ is viable and the transplant occurs. After death, hospitals would run your name to see if your in the system. Each hospital would have their own credentials and everyone can see logs of hospitals accessing the blockchain, but the donor and recipient names remain encrypted.

This is what makes what I am doing so expensive and why I will need the crypto/VC community to fund this. So if I pay 100 people $500 just to sign up and sell me the exclusive right to one kidney for example, and I sell that right to xyz insurance company or government healthcare system (europe) for $50k, 1 death covers 100 bets. The cypto/VC investors see their investment grow since margins are so big. And we fill a pressing need. Even if we account for the additional $1500 payout to the family after death, this expense is easily accounted for since I'm expecting the average member's lifespan to reach 30-50 years. Inflation will reduce their payout amount, and conservatively investing small sums in an index fund or AAA bond (gov or corporate bond) over 10 years would yield the amount needed and the rest would be profit.

Math
$50k Crypto/VC investment per 100 people, excluding additional expenses to keep the math simple
$500 per person
$1500 estate payout upon death and transplant
$50,000 average payout from insurance company payout to us
10% average return on the S&P500 from 1926 to 2018
18-25 years old average donor age up registration
30 year conservative projection of average life expectancy of each donor after registration

$50,000 - $50,000 (100 people) = $0
100 * $50,000 (insurance pays us) = $5,000,000

$49,500 invested in the S&P500 at a conservative 4% expected return over 10 years with zero additional contributions = $23,770 profit
$49,500 invested in the S&P500 at 10% expected return over 10 years with zero additional contributions = $78,890 profit
$49,500 invested in the S&P500 at a conservative 4% expected return over 30 years with zero additional contributions = $111,048 profit
$49,500 invested in the S&P500 at 10% expected return over 30 years with zero additional contributions = $814,245 profit


Insurance company's projected profits per term policy, assuming $1000 initial investment and $200 monthly contribution over 30 years at 10% return = $398,935
Starting amount - $1,000
Total contribution (monthly fee paid by policy holder) - $72,000
Total investment - $471,935

4  Economy / Economics / Legalization and Standardization of Organ Donation on: November 14, 2021, 04:36:02 PM
I've had this idea in my head since 2019, what if it was legal in the US for people to get paid to become a donor.
2 years later, I think I've worked out a framework, but unfortunately it looks like I missed the cutoff date for state ballot initiative requests for the 2022 election cycle.

So here's my framework
Adopting a VC style of investment.
-people are paid a set price for the exclusive right per organ.
-they are given the money upfront, no exams needed
-there are no lifestyle restrictions
-the transplant only occurs after you die
-your estate is given equal or more money than you were given upfront
-if the organ is no longer viable, no big deal, just the cost of doing business. Your off the hook.
-if you change your mind, no big deal, pay back the money at 10% interest to remove your name off the list.
-you must be 18 years or older to apply
-you can enroll your children into the program. Same rules apply, money upfront, transplant only happens after death. On their 18th birthday, they are removed from the program, and have the option to re-enroll. If accepted, same rules apply.

The idea here is that there are over 100,000 people in US in need of transplants and not enough donors. Over 8,000 people die annually, with most waiting over 3 years. The longer they wait, the less productive they become, not including all the stress due to uncertainty.
My proposal is would provide cash upfront, work like the typical VC/Crypto model where you diversify and only need a small handful to breakeven.
The exclusive right would be sold to insurance companies or governments, who would pay 3-5x multiples.

Example 1
Jim, 20 years old, male, lives in Denver Colorado.
He sells us the exclusive right to both his kidney's for $500 each upfront.
We then sell the right to XYZ insurance company for $50,000 per kidney.
I'm assuming insurance companies would then sell term life organ policies to cover expenses.

This transaction is beneficial because insurance companies generally have to spend about $25,000 per year for some dialysis treatments which take up 10+ hours per week for the person in need of a transplant. We are filling the demand. And the cost of the transplant surgery wise is often $100-200,000 anyway. But because their policy holder becomes more productive and increased years to live, the insurance company can justify the expense. Plus based on public data, there are 33,244 fatal motor vehicle crashes in the United States in 2019 in which 36,096 deaths occurred. This resulted in 11.0 deaths per 100,000 people and 1.11 deaths per 100 million miles traveled. The fatality rate per 100,000 people ranged from 3.3 in the District of Columbia to 25.4 in Wyoming. Also based on the numbers, it seems that men in the US begin to start dying in their 40's/50's, 10 years earlier than women. I want to avoid culture war issues and really focus on college kids and not the poor, I don't want this being seen as a payday lending scheme.

I'm working on the website now. Will start on the blockchain next month. The goal is to raise money to get this on the ballots of state elections for the 2024 Presidential election cycle. I want to amend the first line of the current law prohibiting the sale of organ donations after death. This is a felony currently. The average signature needed is about 100-300k per state and seems to be a huge undertaking. Do you guy's see the crypto community getting behind this effort either as early investors or joining the waitlist? What do you guys think of the concept overall.


Blockchain
-----------------------
Each transaction will be available in a blockchain. Those in need will know where in line they are, but the public won't know the names of said people, only the public ID's, and transaction codes.
-shows transaction data
--new donor registration, payout, removal, death
--donor recipient moving up in line, currently in surgery, successful transplant
--insurance company, policy sales




  




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