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I'm not talking about the probability of the next one. I'm saying with a extremely high number of bets, which is why i just chose 1000 that if you graph it out (depending on the house edge) 49.5% will be wins, and 50.5% will be loses. I understand every single event is independent of the previous ones, but the numbers at high values should always hover around the 49.5 and 50.5 mark.
So you agree that after 1000 tails, heads is no more probable? Then you must understand that this does not help you with betting at all. It is of no use predicting the outcome of any single bet, they are all the same. I mean, if you for some reason try to get a long streak of losses, you will probably have had a similar amount of wins and winning streaks before that. The statistics do go like that. But that will not affect anything you do in the future. It is the same as if you never had the previous results. It is analogous to flipping a coin. The history just does not matter. Or are you saying that the history somehow matters? Because trying to get losing streaks before betting big suggests that, and only that. Am I correct? If not, what is the reason for trying to get a losing streak if it did not (supposedly) matter for future bets? If you look at the single event, it is an independent event, but if you look at all the bets as a whole, or a high number of events, the history does matter. If the game is truly fair, the results should be at exactly 49.5 to 50.5. If the numbers are off on either side, you can predict either a period of a higher amount of wins or losses, as the statistics HAVE TO balance out. |
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In my personal experience no. The best way I have found is to gamble in alt-coins. Preferably one that is only worth less than 100 Satoshis. Then find a site where you can bet .00000001 of that coin. Play until you have lost like 5 in a row then start martingale at 1 or 2. Sure the profit will be slow, but this gives you more protection. The only real way to make money on this would be to actually use a program to run it for you, but this is just my idea.
It does not offer any protection. If the game works like it should, and it will or it would be bankrupt by now, the events are distinct. You lose 5 times in a row before betting big; so what? The next events do not depend on those, you still have the same chance to lose. Let's imagine you throw a coin 10 times and get 10 heads; on the 11th, is it more probable that you get heads or that you will get tails? It is just there to give you more protection. With the .00000001 bet you aren't really losing any value, and if the game truly is fair the distribution should bring it to the point where you would win. It is all about getting more layers of protection. Because lets be honest, you aren't going to lose 1000 games in a row, the odds are so small I'm confident it wouldn't happen because the statistics will balance it out, so you are right, you still have the same odds (an independent event) where if you bet >30 times than a normal distribution curve should apply. (This is all coming from a highschool stat class, but this is pretty basic stat) While I am waiting you to answer - I'd like you to, I have to point out that you seem to be thinking of "statistics" as some kind of a mystical power that will "balance things out". Statistics have no will. Statistics will behave in a certain manner though - you will see that 1000 losses is not very probable. But it is a 50-50 chance, that streak of 1000 losses, be it "0000000...." is just as probable as "10110011100011..." or any other sequence of wins/losses. Of course those cases where you both lose AND win some of the bets are more numerous, there are almost 2^1000 that kind of sequences, and only one sequence where you lose all bets. None of this means, that after a streak of 999 losses, the final, 1000th one will be more probably a win. Both are of equal probability. I would like to hear you simply answer yes or no to the question I posed, disregarding additional arguments, if I may ask you to do that. I'm not talking about the probability of the next one. I'm saying with a extremely high number of bets, which is why i just chose 1000 that if you graph it out (depending on the house edge) 49.5% will be wins, and 50.5% will be loses. I understand every single event is independent of the previous ones, but the numbers at high values should always hover around the 49.5 and 50.5 mark. |
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In my personal experience no. The best way I have found is to gamble in alt-coins. Preferably one that is only worth less than 100 Satoshis. Then find a site where you can bet .00000001 of that coin. Play until you have lost like 5 in a row then start martingale at 1 or 2. Sure the profit will be slow, but this gives you more protection. The only real way to make money on this would be to actually use a program to run it for you, but this is just my idea.
It does not offer any protection. If the game works like it should, and it will or it would be bankrupt by now, the events are distinct. You lose 5 times in a row before betting big; so what? The next events do not depend on those, you still have the same chance to lose. Let's imagine you throw a coin 10 times and get 10 heads; on the 11th, is it more probable that you get heads or that you will get tails? It is just there to give you more protection. With the .00000001 bet you aren't really losing any value, and if the game truly is fair the distribution should bring it to the point where you would win. It is all about getting more layers of protection. Because lets be honest, you aren't going to lose 1000 games in a row, the odds are so small I'm confident it wouldn't happen because the statistics will balance it out, so you are right, you still have the same odds (an independent event) where if you bet >30 times than a normal distribution curve should apply. (This is all coming from a highschool stat class, but this is pretty basic stat) |
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In my personal experience no. The best way I have found is to gamble in alt-coins. Preferably one that is only worth less than 100 Satoshis. Then find a site where you can bet .00000001 of that coin. Play until you have lost like 5 in a row then start martingale at 1 or 2. Sure the profit will be slow, but this gives you more protection. The only real way to make money on this would be to actually use a program to run it for you, but this is just my idea.
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They changed it so you have to be a Jr. Member to vote, so sadly we are locked out until we get 30 posts.
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