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Forget all indicators , sentimental and fundamental discussion! Did any one calculate the theoretical value of BTC and identify its variance from the actual price?
values (note the s) is the features and benefits. value(no s) is the financial number anyway value, based on how i view it. and it has worked well for me over the years to view the value window which the bitcoin price sits within at any given time network hashrate 203,000,000thash hashrate/asic unit 140 thash hardware cost/unit $11,620 asics running 1,450,000 hardware cost 2 year $16,849,000,000 hardware cost /block $160,467 hardware cost /coin $25,675 hardware kw/unit 3.01 kw hardware kw network 4,364,500 kw cheapest asic power cost per kwh $0.04 cheapest network power cost per hour $174,580.00 cheapest network power per block $29,096.67 cheapest network power per coin $4,655.47 lowest 'value' $30,330.13 (hardware+power cost per btc $25,675+$4,655.47) expensive asic power cost per kwh $0.38 expensive network power cost per hour $1,658,510.00 expensive mine power/block $276,418.33 expensive mine power/coin $44,226.93 highest value $69,901.60 (hardware+power cost per btc 25,675+$44,226.93) thus value window is between $30k-$70k and no its not a coincidence that while hashrate has been in this range that the price has been bouncing between $30k-$70k no one on the planet can mine for less than $30k. hense good buy support at $30k because no one wants to sell at a loss, as no one can profit at below $30k everyone on the planet can mine for less than $70k. hense good sell resistance at $70k because no one wants to buy at premium, as everyone can mine for less than $70k 6 months ago, previous asics were ~50% less efficient and the hashrate was ~50% less(balancing out). thus the window was about the same back then too So, what you are saying is that we would simply need more "minning power" to increase the price of bitcoin? Very interesting. |
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A thought experiment i wanted to know.
I have saved it in a disc (was inspired by satoshi who stated it that he has saved it and buried it)
memorised and saved in hdd in air gapped though!
Mines aren't in any of the options in the poll. I use a technique that use a deterministic way to get my seed without the need of knowing all words of my seed and I can store by just remember a specific couple of words, yet if I gave you the couple of words, it wouldn't be enough to get my coins nor seed  |
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this guide is impractical and full of utopian dream
for these reasons
a. 'withdrawing' means your taking out of an exchange meaning you got no control of their fee structure.
Yeah, the thread is to advocate for people to use their own wallets and stop overpaying stupid fees from exchanges b. if the guide meant spending from own wallet. well then you come into the problems of not everyone only has one UTXO to spend. many have many UTXO's they need to combine when spending.
Doesn't matter, the point of this guide is to pay the LEAST to get on the NEXT block. For sure, you can set your tx to 1sat/vbyte and wait days/weeks, but if you want to get on the next block asap, this guide is what you are looking for c. also trying to suggest people shouldnt just buy what they want when they want it. but to wait patiently for weeks or months for a low mempool day, totally negates the purpose of the utility of a currency..
I didn't say that. I just said how to pay the least to get your tx in the next block. d. the change of any minority of the community paying less. just then fills in the crowd of those already paying less. thus causing those paying less to have to pay more to compete at their bottom level.
EG a train could have 2 carriages. one for first class and one for second class.. by telling everyone to get off the first class carriage and try squeezing into the second class carriage. does not keeo the second class carriage running cheaply. instead the fight over seats makes people end up paying more for the privilege of seating in the second class carriage or waiting even longer. thus average train fee's rise
You are misunderstanding. This guide is to pay the least to get in that "first class carriage". I'm not saying to just pay 1 sat/vbyte and be done with it. I'm just saying to look at the mempool to see how much you need to barely get the tx on the NEXT block. e. the end result is although when seeing the fees go from $2->$0.50
$2.00/\ /\
$1.50 \ /
$1.00 \ /
$0.50 \/
and choosing to wait for that 'bottom' . if everyone done this guess what the end result of the next fee correction
$2.50 /\
$2.00/\ /
$1.50 \ /
$1.00 \_/
$0.50
yep. the bottom moves up because more are then competing at those times. thus the usual rise in competition then raises the overall price of the competition window
I think you are misunderstanding me. I'm not saying to wait until 1sat/vbyte gets you on the next block. I'm saying to look at mempool to see what's the minimum to get you on the next block. For example, take a look at the mempool right now:  As you can see, right now even 1sat/vbyte can get you on the next block. And you can see there are A TON of transactions that are OVERPAYING anywhere from 3 sats/vbyte up to 251 sats/vbyte which is INSANE!! My guide is about how much one would need to pay to get BARELY on the NEXT mined block. And in this case, right now 1sat/vbyte will get you on the next block! The goal of this guide is that people stop paying 3sats/vbyte or 251 sats/vbyte per transaction! Look at the pic above and see teh distribution of fees! People are overpaying 3sats/vbyte up to 251 sats/vbyte! Now, let's take a few minutes later and the mempool got clogged a little bit and now it looks like:  So, let's say that your tx you set it at 1sat/vbyte, but it didn't confirm and the mempool got a little bit clogged, so what you now see is that you would need to bump the fee to around 1.8sats/vbyte or even 2sats/vbyte with the rbf feature and that will get you in the next block. Sure, you can also leave the tx at 1sat/vbyte but that will probably take a little more time due to the mempool size increasing. an easier solution is this..
stop letting the devs put cludgy code into bitcoin that causes a 4x of tx fee's, stop the devs from removal of old fee formulae, then insist the devs put in cleaner stuff that actually helps make bitcoin more useful day to day(on the bitcoin network), without all the stupid politics of making bitcoin far more worse to use daily just to promote other networks as things people should use instead
Yeah, that's the best solution. I agree. |
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Do not get this wrong, the high fee of $25 and higher are on custodial exchanges which charges more excessively than usual. It's best to avoid those exchanges entirely. Binance for instance charges this much (and tries to scam you into accepting their own made-up token as fake Bitcoin instead of real Bitcoin), while for instance Kraken charges less than $1 to withdraw Bitcoin on-chain. I paid less than $0.05 in fee on my last Bitcoin transaction. I have made 1 sat/vbyte transactions I try to pay like 1.05 sat/vbyte, just to be above people like you  other networks like BSC Bep20, TRC20 or other networks that offers cheap transaction fee. None of that is Bitcoin. We should be careful not to make people believe they're the same. I AGREE. Literally, all of those options are marketed as the "cheaper" bitcoin options to withdraw from binance. It's like if somehow, binance wanted to hoard bitcoin by making ridiculous withdrawal fees. |
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Well, if I was a whale and had millions in crypto, I would just trade peer 2 peer.
No need for pesky taxes.
Plus, you can always buy stuff with crypto or trade for cash etc.
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I have most of mine on an exchange because I'm getting paid interest. Has there ever been a time when an exchange like Binance for example, steals your funds or gets hacked and people lost money?
The reasons I don't leave it there: 1. They can do whatever they want with the coins. 2. Not my keys, not my coins. 3. I have no power over my coins, other than the interaction with the exchange account that can be closed at any time for any reason. |
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Buying two pizzas for 10,000 Bitcoin isn't forgettable to me. Also, the community remembers that day as Bitcoin pizza day. Although that time bought pizza Bitcoin price was low, but for now it's become a huge amount. So this is a memorable history among the Bitcoin community. Another fact of Bitcoin you mentioned on the thread isn't remembering this way we remember Bitcoin pizza day.
Yeah, who can forget that? Literally, those 2 pizzas costed 1 TRILLION satoshis!  |
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Your title is also wrong since you include the term "withdrawal" which is the act of taking money out of an account and whatever fee you pay there has nothing to do with bitcoin or its transaction fees. In reality you are paying for the centralized service (like the exchange) you are using.
Could be, but it's to encourage people to use non-custodial wallets and pay peanuts per transaction  |
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tx fees are too cheap or not something to worried upon.
Yeah but i've known some people paying like $20 per tx which is ridiculous! That's why i made this guide Really simple, but effective |
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Hey fellas, today I'm going to share a guide on how to save a TON of SATOSHIS per btc transaction. For the well-established crypto guys this is probably already known, but I just don't like how people keep saying that paying with bitcoin is expensive, when in reality is REALLY cheap. Everyone knows that one can pay like 1-2 sats/vbyte, though sometimes, if you really want to move your coins fast you may want target the next block to be mined and in that case I always look at the mempool and see what kind of fee I would need to pay to just BARELY get in the next block. It's like the cheapest way to get your tx confirmed paying the least. I usually go to sites like: https://mempool.space/mempool-block/0 to see how much I would need to pay to get my tx in the next block.  For example, in that pic, I would first create a tx for around 1.8 sats/vbyte and if the mempool got clogged and 1.8 sats/vbyte wasn't enough to be on the next block, I would just increase the fee using the RBF feature Also, make sure your tx has the RBF feature or else you would get stuck with the 1.8sats/vbyte and would probably take a few blocks to get it confirmed. Hopefully this was helpful |
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So sick. I didn't know one could hide code in an svg file. Literally just checked my site's SVG files and all seem healthy Those common image files could be code-injected. Really unimaginable huh when people could find almost anything to have it their way Yeah, I really couldn't think one could inject code in a xvg file. Very interesting stuff. |
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So sick. I didn't know one could hide code in an svg file. Literally just checked my site's SVG files and all seem healthy |
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Hey guys, I know images are not allowed in signatures, but what about SVG?
It's vectors and it doesn't need to load images from external sources.
Just a thought
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Even if I knew a million addresses from your wallet, I couldn't recover your parent public key.
That's very interesting. But, unless you had the master xpub key, there's NO WAY to know all of my addresses; UNLESS you use them together, like: Address A has 1 BTC Address B has 2 BTC And then you create a tx of 2.5BTC to Address C and 0.5btc to Address (change address) D. That way, you would be able to see that Address A, B, C and D are all connected, but other than that, there's no chance to see all other addresses |
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I've been messing with bitcoin for years since 2015, and I just had this question. Is it possible to derivate all addresses of a master public key?
like say I have address X, and with only knowing that, would it be possible to see all addresses or even know a possible master public key?
Could it be possible at all to recover a master xpub from just 1 address?
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It's hard to say what this really is. I've seen others claim to own this address like this one claiming only 5 characters is missing which would have taken less than a minute to recover. This means there could be a possibility that someone has been selling a fake "damaged key" on the internet and best case scenario is that creator of this repository has fallen for the scam. The other red flag is that there is no source code to see. You will have to blindly run a binary not knowing what it does. Which again means best case scenario you waste your time and worse case is that you infect your system! The other problem that I see is that the creator is basically asking you to do all the work while only getting a small share of the possible prize (assuming it is real)! Yeah, but you can always disassemble the .exe to see what it does. So, it could be NOT a scam, but it makes it fishy that OP created a new account just to post that that url is a scam lol Forgot to say that the OP created that GitHUb April 13th or so it seems. Link: https://archive.vn/LEUwf |
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It's hard to say what this really is. I've seen others claim to own this address like this one claiming only 5 characters is missing which would have taken less than a minute to recover. This means there could be a possibility that someone has been selling a fake "damaged key" on the internet and best case scenario is that creator of this repository has fallen for the scam. The other red flag is that there is no source code to see. You will have to blindly run a binary not knowing what it does. Which again means best case scenario you waste your time and worse case is that you infect your system! The other problem that I see is that the creator is basically asking you to do all the work while only getting a small share of the possible prize (assuming it is real)! Yeah, but you can always disassemble the .exe to see what it does. So, it could be NOT a scam, but it makes it fishy that OP created a new account just to post that that url is a scam lol |
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Hey, On a search on google, I found these two blogs for amount of bitcoin that are lost forever and are not accessible anymore. 1. https://fortune.com/2017/11/25/lost-bitcoins/ - 2017 2. https://www.investopedia.com/news/20-all-btc-lost-unrecoverable-study-shows/ - 2019 Is there any latest data to with some sort of proof with the No. of Bitcoin which are lost forever? Would love to know as according to the 2nd URL, almost 20% of the overall supply is not accessible which raises the scarcity of bitcoin even more. While the loss of 20% of all bitcoin is likely to not have a significant impact on the crypto market itself, it could surely affect individual investors. Aren't they underestimating the 20% of all bitcoin supply in total? geez. By "being lost forever", it just means that to get their private keys in order to spend those coins will take YEARS, DECADES or maybe even A LOT more due to quantum computers |
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The correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 has reached an all-time high:  Some analysts believe that this may be a harbinger of a market crash and that such a correlation calls into question the properties of bitcoin, such as risk hedging and a defensive asset. These properties were due to the fact that bitcoin had no connection with other markets, but now that institutional investors from the stock market and other sectors of the traditional economy began to invest in bitcoin, the correlation is constantly increasing and creating an even stronger dependence of bitcoin on other markets. Medium has an article about this: The Q-TrapIt contains the following excerpts, which do not speak in favor of the growth of bitcoin in the near future 1. Bitcoin and Ether are highly correlated to the Nasdaq 100. If the NDX tanks, it will take crypto down with it.
2. NDX, like all long-duration assets, benefits from falling interest rates.
3. Unprofitable tech, such as ARKK, got smacked as UST 2-year rates rose. Big tech (NDX) has been saved for now by a few profitable names, but even it has traded lower.
4. The Fed and all other central banks are fighting inflation, and must therefore tighten monetary conditions, not loosen them.
5. Japan, even though it is pursuing accommodative monetary policy, can’t save the world’s risk asset markets because its bazooka is a pea shooter when compared to the Fed’s.
6. The NDX bounce failed at the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level, and will continue lower towards and below 10,000.
7. The Fed put is not based on equities but on US corporate credit markets, which are still healthy-ish… Watch the BBB 2s / 10s spread for a sign the Fed is about to abort the mission and juice the markets higher once more.
8. Global growth will decline on higher commodity prices driven by the continuation and possible escalation of the Russia / Ukraine war. This, in absence of accommodative central banks, will also weigh negatively on stonks.
9. Ipso facto, NDX will fall, and so will crypto. That's how we will get $4k btc again in the future. |
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For those people who are long term holders of btc or any crypto, do you have a plan of when you would sell it? I am talking about the coins you are holding long term and not trading or selling short term etc. Such that if you have a set amount of btc or crypto where you are holding long term.
Imagine someone with 5 btc which is a lot of money. That is a lot of money even in first world countries but that isn't even enough to buy a house in many cities in a first world country. But do people here have plans like okay the moment my btc or crypto is worth x amount of money, then I will cash out some part of it or everything?
Now if someone has say 1 btc, they surely need btc to be at least mid 6 figures to even think about cashing it out if they want to think about retiring in a first world country? I know everyone wants more money but if you have a few million dollars, that is more than enough for anyone even in a first world country to retire. Having a million dollars in the US however doesn't make you rich anymore though from what I read. But with people talking about price targets, it depends on how many btc you own for btc. So even if btc went to 500k, well if you only have 0.1 btc, well you are not rich. But someone with 5 btc is going to be rich.
The other thing is if someone has that much money, wouldn't it make sense for them to sell all their btc and basically invest in stablecoin and just earn passive income from it? Imagine someone with 5 btc and btc goes to 500k. That is 2.5 million dollars. After tax, let say they still have at least 1.5 million. But assuming they were holding long term, this number probably would be a bit higher? But let say use 1.5 million dollars after taxes. If that person takes 1 million dollars and then go buy a stablecoin like usdt and stake it on nexo or blockfi or gemini and earn at least 8%... they would earn 80k-100k a year in passive income in that stablecoin which they could then immediately turn it to fiat and cash to their bank account. That is more than enough to live on assuming you do not have crazy expenses.
Now obviously someone could also do staking of stablecoins if they earn a lot of money from stocks or real estate or whatever it maybe. But wouldn't that be the smart thing to do if someone has that much money? Putting money in a regular bank account make zero sense since you don't even earn 1 percent from it... more like 0.01 percent. Also from what I read, with real estate, sure you earn money buying a house and renting it out but you gotta handle repairs and so many other things. So it seems like putting money into stablecoins is the way to go assuming one has a good amount of money no matter where they earned it from?
If you are a long term hodler, your plan to cash out should only be when it's life-changing money. There's no need to cashout when you are at +10% UNLESS it's life-changing money for you. Just hodl! |
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