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1  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: BTC Coupling-Is BTC just the SP500 with more steps? on: June 29, 2022, 12:29:33 AM
first crypto market cap including bitcoin can easily win on the race of marketcap stock. and I heard the news not mimicking but the news with that bitcoin have correlation with traditional stock market https://financefeeds.com/bitcoin-stock-market-correlation-happens-make-money/

This is unrelated but do you (or anyone else) know where I can find charting of BTC Dominance omitting stablecoins? I'm having trouble on TradingView
2  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: BTC Coupling-Is BTC just the SP500 with more steps? on: June 29, 2022, 12:14:35 AM
BTC had a lot of independent movements, so it's not exactly a mirror of SP500. Also Bitcoin tends to mimic stock market's short-term movements, like a sudden crash in a single day, rather than long-term trends.

It's not a good idea to view Bitcoin as leveraged SP500, no matter how much correlation there is at a given moment, because such assumption is fundamentally wrong and will only lead to bad predictions. Though it doesn't mean that correlation can be dismissed entirely - you can use it for short-term planning, but never fully rely on it. If you want to trade SP500 - trade SP500.

Yeah but I remember trading Stock options and the premiums being so whack. Used to have to pay 40% for a trade now with crypto leverage its only like .1% of position size. It's a crazy opportunity
3  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: BTC Coupling-Is BTC just the SP500 with more steps? on: June 29, 2022, 12:08:01 AM
The correlation is due to the fact that Wall street and banks entered the market.

Back in the day people had to buy bitcoin or mine it to be able to sell it. Now they can trade with borrowed money and banks moved in, like when we had that strange case of Jamie Dimon criticizing bitcoin and saying that he'd fire anyone who's caught trading bitcoin and then we heard that they set up a bitcoin trading desk in his bank and that his daughter owns bitcoin... When these guys invest they play around with the balance sheets, they take loans and the money they can invest depends on how much the fed allows them to have. It depends on whether people deposit and save up, or spend a lot.

Then we had covid and lockdowns. People weren't spending much because they simply couldn't go to concerts, gyms, they couldn't travel, so they were saving up, scared of possible pandemic. The governments printed money to give out stimulus packages all around the world. Then lockdowns were lifted, suddenly the covid threat wasn't high anymore, so everybody began to spend and that's where inflation hit its all time high, wall street loans skyrocketed in value and they were forced to sell assets to cover them. You know the rest.

Hopefully they are out already and won't have any coins to sell after the next FED meeting. Eventually they will be out and bitcoin will no longer follow indexes.

damn, this response is kind of eye-opening. I'm going to look into Jamie Dimon on BTC some more. JPMorgan is at the top
4  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: BTC Coupling-Is BTC just the SP500 with more steps? on: June 27, 2022, 09:02:52 PM
If BTC is worldwide and stocks aren't easily accessible to everyone in the world, why does BTC mimic major stock benchmarks? Will BTC become big enough to get out of the shadow of American Business? I know the "Decoupling" has always been a big debate. I am curious to what you guys think it will take to happen. I love trading crypto as of lately just seems like a more volatile SP500. I am waiting for the day BTC is stable and digital "property"

BTC  recently has reached a high correlation with tech-stocks, which are most of SP500 index.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/11/technology/bitcoin-price-crashing-stocks.html

However, I believe you are thinking the wrong way.
BTC is not mimicking anything. This is a temporary behavior, and is much more related to the global macro economic scenario (fed raising taxes and money flowing from stocks and risk assets to US bonds).

BTC is suffering just like most other risk assets, and tech-stocks and sp500 are just risk assets as well.

However, BTC is not deeply related to those assets, and at some point it will most likely have it own behavior and lower correlation.

Thanks for the response! I too think we are looking at something maybe temporary. Excited to see one day when btc has its own behavior, what that would look like
5  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / BTC Coupling-Is BTC just the SP500 with more steps? on: June 27, 2022, 06:58:30 PM
If BTC is worldwide and stocks aren't easily accessible to everyone in the world, why does BTC mimic major stock benchmarks? Will BTC become big enough to get out of the shadow of American Business? I know the "Decoupling" has always been a big debate. I am curious to what you guys think it will take to happen. I love trading crypto as of lately just seems like a more volatile SP500. I am waiting for the day BTC is stable and digital "property"
6  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Lightning Network Observer on: June 13, 2022, 06:27:53 PM
Is there an IOS app that can use Lightening Network? I know of CashApp. Any others?
7  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: How do you feel when the market is downtrend? on: June 12, 2022, 05:07:29 AM
After getting on the crypto wagon early 2021. Got very excited with defi but now I'm full circle back to stacking sats. I feel really hopeful for the use-case of btc as a backup "if all else fails" reserve currency. Just really wish I could find my old wallet from High School Alphabay  Grin
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