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1  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: If you had AI day trade bitcoin to make profits on: October 27, 2023, 03:41:10 PM
I have developed a strategy on TradingView using its Pine Script programming system. Obviously, it's not an AI that generates high profits. I have been testing it for a month, and it's providing a very good success rate. Here is the backtest from 2020 to 2023, along with a comparison with my trades made over the last 30 days. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TCRy0wyyBBvGvz8p2wEyB2RcslsJvZ9eN0gGrHWJOjo/edit?usp=sharing
2  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: 31 days later.. Testing own strategy on: October 25, 2023, 04:00:08 PM

GOOD! Now from the period of 2020 to 2023, compare your performance vs. a Bitcoin Buy and HODL strategy using the same amount of starting capital, $1,000.

If your performance is lower, then you need to improve the strategy, and/or add the more volatile shitcoins to trade. Many shitcoins usually perform better than Bitcoin during the bull cycle simply because "reasons". That doesn't mean they're the bes though.

If your perfomance is only slightly better, then if you ask me, the risk taken by a more active trading strategy is simply not worth it in my opinion.


My strategy works in the spot market and generates returns in both bearish, bullish, and sideways markets, with a very conservative risk management approach. You mentioned that the assumed risk isn't justified. Were you certain that in 2020, BTC would surpass $60,000?
What I aim to achieve with this strategy is to consistently generate monthly and yearly returns that can be measured sustainably over time, regardless of market fluctuations. The strategy focuses on medium and long-term consistency
3  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: 31 days later.. Testing own strategy on: October 25, 2023, 03:43:10 PM
I need more than 20 people to be able to publish the strategy on TradingView and not waste money in vain. If you want to try it, please join the Telegram group, and when we reach 20 people, I will upload the strategy along with a manual for its use. Thank you.
I'm not familiar with how TradingView rewards its publisher, but do you really need to pay them and must have at least 20 subscribers before you make a profit? The numbers seem to come out of nowhere. I never heard similar things from others who create new threads and wanted to share their strategy with others. Personally, I also feel less inclined to join a random group just to know if it works or not, especially if the members are so few.

To publish my strategy on TradingView, one needs to be a premium user, which comes at a cost of $60 per month. I'm also looking for feedback from at least 20 individuals as part of a pilot test to identify areas of improvement in my strategy. This feedback is crucial to refining my approach. I appreciate any interest or participation on your part in this process.
4  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Is a 20% Annual Return good ? on: October 25, 2023, 02:11:09 AM
Hello, I have downloaded the backtest data so that you can better visualize the strategy I am implementing. The backtest covers the period from 2020 to 2023 with a capital of $1,000. In the following link, you will find the spreadsheet where everything is more detailed. Thank you very much for your feedback. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TCRy0wyyBBvGvz8p2wEyB2RcslsJvZ9eN0gGrHWJOjo/edit?usp=sharing
PLEASE CHECK THE BACKTEST

I want to share the tool I've developed with the community, and the Telegram group is for that purpose, to address questions about my strategy. I need more than 20 people to be able to publish the strategy on TradingView and not waste money in vain. If you want to try it, please join the Telegram group, and when we reach 20 people, I will upload the strategy along with a manual for its use. Thank you. https://t.me/CryptoBeeStrategy


There is a post where I will be sharing the results of the forward test of my strategy. If you'd like to take a look, here is the link.https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5470605.0

5  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: 31 days later.. Testing own strategy on: October 25, 2023, 02:06:48 AM
Do you have a specified amount of profit or stop loss you are willing to take per trade or is that all random for you?
Most important detail you've omitted so far is your stop loss, whether you have any, what's the maximum drawdown / month and overall according to your parameters. What are the backtest results if you have any, would be interesting to see how strategy performed over the years when Bitcoin was trending
Although, intra-day back-tests are not available for free. But TradingView does have a 30-day free trial. Plus for plebs, it's probably better to use lower time preference strategies.

Hello, I have downloaded the backtest data so that you can better visualize the strategy I am implementing. The backtest covers the period from 2020 to 2023 with a capital of $1,000. In the following link, you will find the spreadsheet where everything is more detailed. Thank you very much for your feedback.https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TCRy0wyyBBvGvz8p2wEyB2RcslsJvZ9eN0gGrHWJOjo/edit?usp=sharing
PLEASE CHECK THE BACKTEST

So what is your telegram group for?
I want to share the tool I've developed with the community, and the Telegram group is for that purpose, to address questions about my strategy. I need more than 20 people to be able to publish the strategy on TradingView and not waste money in vain. If you want to try it, please join the Telegram group, and when we reach 20 people, I will upload the strategy along with a manual for its use. Thank you.

6  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Is a 20% Annual Return good ? on: October 19, 2023, 05:35:59 PM
**Performance in 31 Days:** Forward test
I've completed twelve trades,. Over these 31 days, I've achieved a return of 1.91%, which translates to a daily return of 0.06%. Projected over a year, that would be 22.52%, but this can vary based on market behavior. It's important to note that this is in the spot market. Can it be done in futures? Yes, and with leverage (2x or 3x), you can easily reach 60% to 70% returns due to compound interest. However, I prefer the spot market as I see it more as a long-term investment.

Here's the link to the spreadsheet https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nfNuJB5ZkewvZ8A9ACPJik0p3Vq1g-TO/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=105063930982027234018&rtpof=true&sd=true where you can see all the trades I've made, a screenshot of how the strategy operates on TradingView, and a sheet of risk. I'll provide another update at 60 days and continue until I reach 180 days, which will conclude my testing, and then I'll consider adding more capital. Feel free to ask anything...
7  Economy / Trading Discussion / 31 days later.. Testing own strategy on: October 16, 2023, 11:33:31 PM
It's been 31 days since I started testing a strategy I designed in TradingView, applying my knowledge in trading and investments. This is a continuation of my previous post https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5468812.0 in which I asked whether achieving an average annual return of 20% was considered good. There were several interesting comments, with some people saying it's a good return for spot trading, while others felt it's a very low return due to the high risk and volatility in the cryptocurrency market. Some mentioned that for a small capital, it might not be worth the effort for such a small gain. I'd like to address some of the points that came up in the post.

**Risk Management:**

The strategy divided my capital, and the  involves making multiple purchases as the price drops, averaging the cost, and selling when a certain profit-taking level is reached. In the Google Sheet I'll share, there's a sheet defining the risk and why I consider it a medium-to-low risk strategy.

**Trading Operation:**

My strategy is designed for Bitcoin, but it can work with other cryptocurrencies. I primarily use a 3-hour timeframe.

**Time and Management:**
You don't need to be in front of your computer all the time. Once I get a signal on TradingView, it sends a notification to the app and email with the quantity of BTC to buy and the price. Placing the buy limit and sell limit orders takes just one minute, which I find manageable for a 20% return.

**Performance in 31 Days:**

I've completed six trades, including both buying and selling. Over these 31 days, I've achieved a return of 1.91%, which translates to a daily return of 0.06%. Projected over a year, that would be 22.52%, but this can vary based on market behavior. It's important to note that this is in the spot market. Can it be done in futures? Yes, and with leverage (2x or 3x), you can easily reach 60% to 70% returns due to compound interest. However, I prefer the spot market as I see it more as a long-term investment.

Here's the link to the spreadsheet https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TCRy0wyyBBvGvz8p2wEyB2RcslsJvZ9eN0gGrHWJOjo/edit?usp=sharing where you can see all the trades I've made, a screenshot of how the strategy operates on TradingView, and a sheet of risk. I'll provide another update at 60 days and continue until I reach 180 days, which will conclude my testing, and then I'll consider adding more capital. Feel free to ask anything...

Edit
I've created a Telegram group where I'll be sharing my daily trades. It's free, so feel free to join if you'd like. https://t.me/CryptoBeeStrategy
8  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Is a 20% Annual Return good ? on: October 03, 2023, 04:16:44 AM
In other words, what you have done is a simulation of those five years ago until now, and for the last 15 days you have been testing it with real money. It would not be the first time that when testing with money the results are not the expected ones

You're nearing to a month within the next 2 weeks so I hope that it goes well for you and it's nice that you're answering the queries here and providing some clarity to how you've been doing that because most of the posts like this that everyone has seen before seems just like a bluff. How long do you plan to test this on real account?

As of today, 02/10/2023, it has generated a 0.76% return in 17 days. We'll see how it performs until October 15th, when it reaches the 30-day mark. I will upload a link to the Excel file containing all the trades I've opened, generated by the Binance platform. I plan to conduct a backtest for around 6 months.

Yes 20% is great but you most likely won’t get this every year even if it was possible in the past. Generally backtesting is never accurate because you don’t take into account slippage and liquidity. You will find that in real life you won’t get the fills you normally want and profits won’t be as high as expected.

I was thinking the same thing, but slippage isn't as significant since I'm operating within a 3-hour time frame.

I'm wondering what sort of strategy you have built because you are on the roll with this return.

This strategy I've developed operates by averaging purchase prices. The key question is: when to buy? This is where certain mathematical calculations come into play to try to predict market volatility.

But how many years is this 20% that you say OP? Is it 1 year or more than 2 years?

I conducted the backtest from 2018 to the present date in 2023, and on a monthly basis, it has consistently yielded returns ranging from 0.8% to 3%.

In the context of trading which is a more active effort than just holding, such returns may be relatively small especially for small capital traders, let's say you only trade $1k for the whole year + $200 in profits. On the other hand, there are several things that need to be counted as your sacrifices, including the time and energy spent.

I developed it on TradingView, and when a buy or sell signal is generated, I receive an alert in my email with the purchase amount and the price at which the limit order should be placed. Currently, I'm testing it in a real account as a trial with a small capital. Once I have my figures sorted out within 6 months, I'll connect it to 3commas to make it automatic.



EXTRA
I want to clarify that this is in the spot market, without leverage, as I prefer not to engage in leveraged trading. However, it's worth noting that it's possible to leverage up to a maximum of 5X, but the risk increases significantly. Since my strategy is based on averaging prices and volatility, it's possible that using high leverage, especially beyond 5X, could lead to account liquidation before the next purchase. I prefer the spot market because it's more comfortable and aligns better with an investment approach. I mention this in case anyone was considering it.


9  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Is a 20% Annual Return good ? on: October 02, 2023, 02:19:59 AM
I want to ask you, 20% is a good rate but if it is a figure you get from back-testing (even one year backwards), it does not guarantee you will get a same APY when you are in actual trading with the strategy moving forwards.


I conducted the backtest from 2018 to the present date in 2023, and on a monthly basis, it has consistently yielded returns ranging from 0.8% to 3%. Currently, I am actively testing it on a real account since September 15th.

The way my strategy works is by averaging purchase prices. I buy when volatility is high, making it less likely to fail, all supported by the backtest. Of course, in real trading, anything can happen.
10  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Is a 20% Annual Return good ? on: October 02, 2023, 02:11:45 AM
Anything that isn't taking bag down with the bear market is excellent results. On the other hand, with the bull market, if you are doing worse returns then just holding... Well results are obvious just by comparison, right?
For me, you will not only be able to reach 20% profit next year because the halving phase of Bitcoin will happen. We know from the history of Bitcoin that as long as the halving phase starts, after that, the price of Bitcoin will increase. It's a huge profit if you compare it to your annual income from the Bank.

It all depends on one's preferences and risk tolerance. Whether it's aiming for a 20% return over 3, 4, or 5 years, or the potential for a 100% return within five years, it's important to acknowledge the inherent uncertainty when dealing with assets like Bitcoin.
11  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Is a 20% Annual Return good ? on: October 02, 2023, 02:00:37 AM
But this acceptability on the percentage still varies on how much margin you are using because it’s useless to have 20% profit while the total profit in fiat value is just a penny.

otherwise if its just thousand dollars gaining 20% a year, it will be just a waste of time in my opinion.

Exactly, it would work well with accounts that have slightly higher capital levels. But it's better than having it in the bank or staking, right?
12  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Is a 20% Annual Return good ? on: October 02, 2023, 01:49:06 AM
Yes, that's an acceptable return but are you able to prove that it can happen to you through trading? How many times did you back tested that?

As for how you got the 20% return, I wouldn't trust any automated trading program. There is both winning and losing with trading. You have to accept risks first.

How do you know that you can make up to 20% profit every year in trading?

I conducted the backtest from 2018 to the present date in 2023, and on a monthly basis, it has consistently yielded returns ranging from 0.8% to 3%. Currently, I am actively testing it on a real account since September 15th.



13  Economy / Trading Discussion / Is a 20% Annual Return good ? on: October 01, 2023, 07:04:59 PM
With my experience in the cryptocurrency market, I decided to develop a short-term Bitcoin spot trading strategy using the TradingView platform and its strategy programming tool. I managed to create a strategy that yields an average annual return of 20% according to backtesting. My question is, is this return acceptable, or in your opinion, what would be an acceptable or good return?
14  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: DCA on a real account: does it work? on: October 01, 2023, 03:19:39 AM


In my opinion, DCA is an effective strategy in any market situation. I am also a DCA user on the spot market.

Regarding ROI of 15-23% per year, I think it is reasonable and good, but not optimal. Why do I think it's not optimal? In my opinion, there are several additional strategies that make DCA more optimal and able to increase the profit percentage to 50-100 percent to 200 percent. DCA combined with additional skills or expertise in market analysis; technical & fundamental analysis, understanding doji - patterns and patience can optimize profits. Maybe this 15-23% ROI is if you do DCA irregularly or just enter at the current price where you have the money and with an irregular RR.

Certainly, you can achieve higher profits when combined with technical and fundamental analysis, but the returns may vary from year to year, with some years being excellent and others more modest. What I have done is to consistently achieve a monthly gain ranging from 0.8% to 3%, irrespective of whether the market is bearish or bullish, according to backtesting. That's why I'm currently testing it on a real account. I've been doing so since September 15th, and tomorrow I will share the link to the trades and the earnings for the month of September.

Thank you for your comment.
15  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: DCA on a real account: does it work? on: September 28, 2023, 09:44:27 PM

My eyes popped out of their sockets when I saw that ROI. Jesus fucking christ that's huge, although I must ask, what maths lead you to these numbers? and how were you able to integrate DCA with grid trading, to me those two trading systems are a little on the opposite sides of the spectrum cause you got one where you invest regardless of the price, and another where you trade on specific price sets. Just trying to wrap my head around this whole thing lol.

The foundation of DCA is averaging the purchase price, and that's the characteristic I employ in my strategy, "averaging prices." The GRID aspect is established based on market volatility, which is somewhat complex to explain. In essence, it's neither DCA nor GRID; it's a system that incorporates a few features from both. By applying certain mathematical calculations, it achieves that ROI. This is in the context of spot trading. While leverage could be used to multiply returns, that would transition into trading rather than investing. If you're curious, here's the chart for 2022 applying my method https://es.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSDT/qtnVf3E5/ .You can view all the trades that were executed throughout the year.

16  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: DCA on a real account: does it work? on: September 28, 2023, 09:23:57 PM

I dont know but i do have a feeling that this is some sort of indirect kind of advertising your tiktok channel or it is just me?  Smiley

If we do speak about indicators or whatever tools that you've been using on your trading analysis then there's no such thing about being bad or right because we are all free on whatever analysis that we do come up with and if you do make out some combinations or add up other than DCA then its your choice because it would really be just that so normal that we will really be making combinations of different trading style and method or indicators or strategies that you would really be applying on a certain moment or scenario. Does it work? If it works and brings out profit for you then thats it.

Just make it sure that you are really that wary about the volatility. Even lets say that you are making use of Hourly time frame then you should be that
wary about those sudden spikes and crashes that we could have on this market. Always better to make yourself that prepared.

Hello, in response to your question, I am not promoting my TikTok. It's a way to share my progress on a real account while applying my investment strategy.
The reason I'm doing this is because there are probably many people who don't feel comfortable with trading, and I will try to demonstrate that it is possible to achieve good short-term returns by investing in spot.
17  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: DCA on a real account: does it work? on: September 28, 2023, 09:12:24 PM
Have you defined for yourself any time frame during which you will buy coins? After all, in the end everything will depend on the amount of money in your wallet. And if you run out of money, and the value of Bitcoin continues to decline, then you will get an unacceptable average value of the coin.
The way my investment strategy works is on a short-term basis on the 3-hour time frame. There will be purchases that last for just one day or even less before becoming profitable, as well as some that extend beyond one month. Consequently, there is no need for an infinite amount of capital. There is a video on mi tiktok explaining how it works. There is a video on my tiktok that explains how it works.

In this case, your current strategy has nothing to do with DCA and it is unclear why you used this abbreviation in the name of the thread. You should understand that a characteristic feature of the DCA strategy is the systematic nature and duration during which it is used.

The idea is that my investment method works by averaging purchase prices, but on a short-term basis while making them profitable. You are correct; I should have used a different term in the thread. However, if you read the post, it mentions that it combines elements of DCA and Grid trading, albeit only certain characteristics from these methods.
18  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: DCA on a real account: does it work? on: September 27, 2023, 07:21:02 PM

Have you defined for yourself any time frame during which you will buy coins? After all, in the end everything will depend on the amount of money in your wallet. And if you run out of money, and the value of Bitcoin continues to decline, then you will get an unacceptable average value of the coin.


The way my investment strategy works is on a short-term basis on the 3-hour time frame. There will be purchases that last for just one day or even less before becoming profitable, as well as some that extend beyond one month. Consequently, there is no need for an infinite amount of capital. There is a video on mi tiktok explaining how it works. There is a video on my tiktok that explains how it works.


19  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: DCA on a real account: does it work? on: September 27, 2023, 07:10:37 PM

I was curious as to how you connected trading in the cryptocurrency market with DCA. How does grid trading work for this? As far as I'm aware, DCA is not a tool for trading in this particular bitcoin market.

Are you able to buy bitcoin every day for $100 under current circumstances, despite the fact that DCA is an excellent approach to amass Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies that anyone believes will provide a big profit during the upcoming bull season or bitcoin halving next year? To be honest, it's not simple for regular folks working in the Bitcoin sector to achieve this.

DCA is a form of investment; what I'm saying is that I've created my own strategy, incorporating aspects such as averaging the entry price and making regular investments akin to the DCA methodology. Additionally, I leverage somewhat complex mathematical calculations, which are challenging to explain, to predict buying points based on volatility, similar to Grid trading. It's a distinct tool that is neither DCA nor Grid Trading because I'm only utilizing certain characteristics from these methods to simplify comprehension.

I've been implementing this strategy in the real market since September 15th, and I'm documenting my progress on TikTok. Thank you for your response.
20  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: DCA on a real account: does it work? on: September 27, 2023, 03:14:28 AM

Thank you for sharing with us. Instead of tiktok, try to prepare an Excel file and visualize the outputs on a monthly basis, while giving notices of but orders here once every few days will be sufficient, as all the data here is open and any modification is recorded, not like other services in which users can modify the data.
If your service is successful, you will receive many donations, and you can create a paid channel after several months if you gain sufficient confidence.


I began testing the strategy on September 15th of this year. As you rightly mentioned, in addition to TikTok, I will also prepare an Excel spreadsheet to track and demonstrate the progress. Moreover, I believe it would be beneficial to create a website to showcase how the strategy works. Thank you for the suggestion; I will definitely consider it.
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