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1  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion - Cancelled my basic subscription this morning. on: June 01, 2020, 10:17:10 AM
I stumbled across Armstrong Economics a few years ago, not long after the Great Financial Crisis got going. I was trying to understand what on Earth was going on, and how the world economy got into this mess, and why the authorities didn't see it coming. His writing resonated with me and seemed to propose definite predictions and also claimed a good track record. I need to add it was never all consuming, and in the back of my mind I noted the major ECM turning points.

I bought his Gold Report in 2014. Later on, I decided to subscribe to Ask Socrates. I was keeping my eye out for the PRIVATE BLOG - GOLD reports. I was/ am(?) waiting for the drop to $ 800, else to see that taken off the table.

I stumbled upon this thread and also https://armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com/ a couple of days ago.

I had never managed to make sense of how to convert the forecasts into actionable trades, but I blamed it on my inability to comprehend, and kept telling myself that one day I would sit down in front of my computer and work through it all until it made sense. Or maybe upgrade my membership...

Around page 273 of this thread is where I saw some quantitative accounts of an experienced trader's attempts to use the forecasting system, and finding it was neither easy, nor accurate.

If an experienced trader can't make money out of it, then neither can I, never mind the underlying accuracy of the forecasting.

I don't remember finding a single worked example in the documentation on the Ask Socrates web site.

So I'm unsubscribed and will use other methods to focus on how to play gold and silver.
2  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: [ANN] MarginBot - A Bitfinex Margin Lending Management Bot on: October 30, 2017, 04:48:16 AM
Any suggestion for a noob?

I think the 10-min cron is doing all the lending, and 1-h cron only for the statistics, right? I think I can live without it.

Thanks,

There is a trailing " on the end of the crontab entry you posted. Should it be there?

Try using the full path to the wget command. The $PATH used by cron can be different than the $PATH you have when logged in.

Look in /var/log/cron to check what is happening.

You should also try running the command on the command line.
3  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: [ANN] MarginBot - A Bitfinex Margin Lending Management Bot on: October 01, 2017, 06:00:25 PM
It seems there are too many people interested in giving borrow their bitcoin and not enough people interested in doing business with it. okey

Bitcoin margin lending rates have always been MUCH lower than USD.  All crypto for that matter has much lower rates. I was in a fairly long discussion about crypto vs USD lending several years ago, in which I advocated always converting crypto to USD to lend ( https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=229438.msg9739115#msg9739115 ), but with prices where they are right now, turns out depending on when you got your BTC, I may have been wrong in my analysis ( honestly didn't see $4k bitcoin coming this quickly.... ).  That said, I still believe it is much safer and a far more reliable investment to lend USD.  Lending USD gives MUCH higher returns than crypto, and its fairly reliable, daily income.

But, I also do have some coin that I hold, just in case.  And I know a lot of other people do as well.  And having that coin sitting there doing nothing doesn't really make sense to me, so I added back in crypto lending.  Getting 0.01% daily returns on those coins is better than nothing, and the bot can still focus on my USD returns, where my real income is.

I hold some crypto, as well as gold. I buy into an asset as the price falls using pre-allocated fiat at various price points. As the price rises, I sell out at predetermined price points, but for a new buy, I always retain 33% of the asset as a core position which I will "never sell". My target for BTC is USD 10000, at which point I might sell my core position (accumulated when the price was BTC 1 was less than USD 1000).

I therefore have no problem lending out my core crypto positions, as well as the USD that are allocated for rebuys when BTC, etc. crash much, much lower.
4  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: [ANN] MarginBot - A Bitfinex Margin Lending Management Bot on: September 18, 2017, 07:14:09 PM
Update on my setup Smiley I have started with small amounts and my earnings below so far

The earnings are slow, but they add up over time.  Better than just about any other investment you'll find...  Grin
I think of it as being akin to selling picks and shovels during a gold rush. Apart from the currency risk (if USD is not your home currency), the only volatility is in the daily interest rate.

You don't lose money, you just make it at different rates.
5  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: [ANN] MarginBot - A Bitfinex Margin Lending Management Bot on: September 05, 2017, 08:02:38 PM
Ok, its ready!  MarginBot v0.1.07 is now live on github!  Full Crypto Margin lending!  Currently it supports all currencies that Bitfinex supports for margin.
For a few weeks now, my marginbot setup has not been picking up account history, nor unused funding, but the cron job runs were being added to the BFXLendBot_CronRuns table.

I spent some time on it yesterday, and didn't get any ideas as to what might be wrong. Not least because my php binary will not execute a .php file.

But the problem shows up as a lack of history on http://.../marginbot/index.php

and a lack of entries in the table BFXLendBot_Tracking. The last entry was 2017-08-19.
I solved the lack of updates problem.

I put in a print_r statement that told me my nonce was too small.

That made me think maybe I was reusing some keys (1 iMac, 2 android devices, two BFX accounts).

I was right!
6  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: [ANN] MarginBot - A Bitfinex Margin Lending Management Bot on: September 03, 2017, 07:08:09 PM
Any chance of adding Litecoin (LTC)?

It's fantastic that you've generalised to more currencies.

I was seriously thinking about hacking your bot myself to get multi-currency support in.
7  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: [ANN] MarginBot - A Bitfinex Margin Lending Management Bot on: September 03, 2017, 06:15:00 PM
Ok, its ready!  MarginBot v0.1.07 is now live on github!  Full Crypto Margin lending!  Currently it supports all currencies that Bitfinex supports for margin.
For a few weeks now, my marginbot setup has not been picking up account history, nor unused funding, but the cron job runs were being added to the BFXLendBot_CronRuns table.

I spent some time on it yesterday, and didn't get any ideas as to what might be wrong. Not least because my php binary will not execute a .php file.

But the problem shows up as a lack of history on http://.../marginbot/index.php

and a lack of entries in the table BFXLendBot_Tracking. The last entry was 2017-08-19.

So I noticed this morning 1.07b was available on the master branch.

I followed the update instructions, and the following occurred:

A new table BFXLendBot_CurPairs is created, and the 4 existing tables are backed up to copies with the suffix _BACKUP_v17

But I get this error on the screen http://.../marginbot/update.php?doUpdate=2

Quote
THERE HAS BEEN A DATABASE ERROR
Please Contact Support If this error persists.
1264 - Out of range value for column 'dep_balance' at row 7

I am using

5.7.16
MySQL Community Server (GPL)


Poking around the MySQL tables, it seems the table definitions are still the same: decimal(12,2). But I can see some ALTER TABLE statements in update.php, that switch to decimal(12,8).
When I paste the ALTER TABLE for the Tracking table into MySQLWorkbench it thinks there is a syntax error in both MODIFY COLUMN parts of the SQL statement.

Code:
ALTER TABLE `BFXLendBot_Tracking`
ADD COLUMN `trans_cur`  varchar(10) NULL AFTER `user_id`,
MODIFY COLUMN `dep_balance`  decimal(12,8) NULL DEFAULT NULL AFTER `date`,
MODIFY COLUMN `swap_payment`  decimal(12,8) NULL DEFAULT NULL AFTER `dep_balance`,
DROP INDEX `uniquieKeys` ,
ADD UNIQUE INDEX `uniquieKeys` (`user_id`, `trans_id`, `trans_cur`) USING BTREE;

Code:
CREATE TABLE `BFXLendBot_Tracking` (
  `id` int(12) NOT NULL AUTO_INCREMENT,
  `user_id` smallint(4) DEFAULT NULL,
  `trans_id` int(12) DEFAULT NULL,
  `date` date DEFAULT NULL,
  `dep_balance` decimal(12,2) DEFAULT NULL,
  `swap_payment` decimal(12,2) DEFAULT NULL,
  `average_return` decimal(8,6) DEFAULT NULL,
  PRIMARY KEY (`id`),
  UNIQUE KEY `uniquieKeys` (`user_id`,`trans_id`)
) ENGINE=MyISAM AUTO_INCREMENT=171 DEFAULT CHARSET=latin1;

CREATE TABLE `BFXLendBot_Tracking_BACKUP_v17` (
  `id` int(12) NOT NULL AUTO_INCREMENT,
  `user_id` smallint(4) DEFAULT NULL,
  `trans_id` int(12) DEFAULT NULL,
  `date` date DEFAULT NULL,
  `dep_balance` decimal(12,2) DEFAULT NULL,
  `swap_payment` decimal(12,2) DEFAULT NULL,
  `average_return` decimal(8,6) DEFAULT NULL,
  PRIMARY KEY (`id`),
  UNIQUE KEY `uniquieKeys` (`user_id`,`trans_id`)
) ENGINE=MyISAM AUTO_INCREMENT=171 DEFAULT CHARSET=latin1;

I am also wondering it it makes more sense to use decimal(16,8), as that way you can still support numbers up to 999,999,999. decimal(12,8) only goes up to 9,999.
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