Minnesota Twins vs Tampa Bay Rays Free Pick 9-3-24
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Matt Fargo Sports Tampa Bay Rays -108

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  MLB   09/03   6:50 PM   Minnesota Twins vs Tampa Bay Rays
  PICK: Tampa Bay Rays -108
s is a play on the TAMPA BAY RAYS for our Tuesday Free Play. It has been a lost season for Tampa Bay which has arguably the best young rotation in baseball when healthy but 2024 has not been a season where healthy was in play. The Rays are using the final month of the season to get the young guns some work to keep them limber but also make sure there are no setbacks. Tampa Bay has dropped two straight and six of its last eight games and it has been the offense which has been the letdown, averaging 2.7 rpg in those six losses. Minnesota has won two straight games following a horrible end to August where they went 3-9 over their final 12 games but have been able to stay afloat as the Guardians and Royals have also had their own recent struggles. The Twins are 3.5 games behind Cleveland in the American League Central and they have a big series against the Royals on deck with their pitching having taken a slight plunge of late along with the offense which we expect to struggle tonight. One of the young arms for Tampa Bay that it hopes to have at 100 percent next season is Jeffrey Springs who got into the rotation is 2022 and put up a 2.46 ERA in 33 games including 25 starts. He then went through Tommy John surgery and has made only nine starts the last two seasons but he is on the road to recovery. In his last start, he went five innings for the fourth time and the fourth in his past five games as he struck out a season-high nine batters and allowed just a pair of walks and a hit. Five innings is likely his max and he has a good bullpen behind him. David Festa is a solid young arm for the Twins and he has been pitching well after a rocky start as he has a 3.06 ERA since late July in six starts and one relief appearance but that is over just 32.1 innings and has yet to hit 90 pitches. Normally, this is not an issue with the Twins having a solid bullpen but tonight they are in a tough spot as the Twins are shorthanded as Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, and Cole Sands all worked on Sunday and Monday with those three having a collective 2.78 ERA over 168.1 innings. Play (964) Tampa Bay Rays

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Detroit Tigers vs San Diego Padres Prediction 9-2-24
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Matt Fargo Sports San Diego Padres -1.5

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  MLB   09/02   6:40 PM   Detroit Tigers vs San Diego Padres
  PICK: San Diego Padres -1.5
s is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES RL for our Monday Free Play. Detroit had dropped two straight games following a six-game winning streak but those six wins were against the White Sox and Angels, the two worst teams in the American League. The Tigers got another gem from Skubal on Saturday who has all but locked up the American League Cy Young and yesterday made it eight wins over their last 10 games. Detroit is now two games over .500 and trails Minnesota and Kansas City by five games for that final Wild Card spot and that might be too far back at this point with three teams to pass. San Diego took two of three in Tampa Bay to make it a 4-3 roadtrip and with the Dodgers loss yesterday, the Padres are now five games back in the National League West, tied with Arizona. Those two sit atop the National League Wild Card standings, three games ahead of the Braves. San Diego is back home where it is 37-32 including 11-4 over its last 15 games with the offense that is surging yet struggles in four of its last five games from the recent roadtrip. Ty Madden was supposed to get the start yesterday but the Tigers elected to go with Beau Brieske in a bullpen game and they got a solid effort from Brant Hurter. Madden will be making his second start following a very solid Major League debut as he allowed one earned run on four hits and three walks while striking out just two. However, that came against the hapless White Sox so he had a dream opener but now things get a lot tougher. Joe Musgrove has made four starts since coming back from injury and he is pitching great with a 1.66 ERA and he is starting to get stretched out as he is coming off a 94-pitch effort, his highest thus far. He has another good matchup here against a bad offense. He has not allowed an earned run in his two home starts since his return and he will continue his success here on Monday with the value taking the runline in what should be a comfortable win. Play (920) San Diego Padres -1.5 Runs

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2024 AFC North Overview and Betting Preview
By Matt Fargo
https://topsportscappers.com/

Regular Season Win Totals and AFC North/Super Bowl Odds (via DraftKings)
Baltimore Ravens: 10.5 Over -120 Under +100~ AFC North Winner +145 ~ Super Bowl Winner +1,000
Cincinnati Bengals: 10.5 Over -125 Under +100 ~ AFC North Winner +140 ~ Super Bowl Winner +1,300
Cleveland Browns: 8.5 Over -135 Under +115 ~ AFC North Winner +600 ~ Super Bowl Winner +4,000
Pittsburgh Steelers: 8.5 Over +120 Under -145 ~ AFC North Winner +800 ~ Super Bowl Winner +5,000

Coaching Changes
None

Team Previews

Baltimore Ravens: 14-5 ~  3-3 AFC North ~ 12-7-0 ATS ~ 8-10-1 O/U
Won AFC North, Lost in AFC Championship
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 2

Notable Additions: RB Derrick Henry, OT Josh Jones, LB Chris Board

Notable Losses: QB Tyler Huntley, RB J.K. Dobbins, RB Gus Edwards, WR Odell Beckham Jr., WR Devin Duvernay, OT Morgan Moses, G Kevin Zeitler, G John Simpson, DE Jadeveon Clowney, DE/OLB Tyus Bowser, LB Patrick Queen, CB Ronald Darby, CB Rock Ya-Sin, S Geno Stone

Notable Draft Selections: CB Nate Wiggins, OT Roger Rosengarten, DE Adisa Isaac, WR Deonvtez Walker, CB T.J. Tampa

Baltimore gained the No. 1 Seed in the AFC last season as it put together an impressive 13-3 record before dropping their meaningless Week 17 game where they rested most starters. The three meaningful losses were by a combined 12 points and they rolled into the Divisional Round of the playoffs with a blowout win over Houston before losing to Kansas City in the AFC Championship as they committed three turnovers, two in the redzone. Despite going through a fairly big overhaul, the Ravens have one of the best rosters in the league led by reigning MVP Lamar Jackson who came into camp in the best shape of his career. There are issues though as they have to replace three offensive linemen which is significant in this run-first offense that also lost both top running backs. They signed Derrick Henry but he is on the other side of his career. There are also a number of changes along the line on defense but there has been depth there and with a secondary that remains mostly intact, the No. 2 ranked defense in EPA will be fine. While they have the second toughest schedule in the NFL based on opponent win percentage from last season, the Ravens have the No. 1 Net Rest advantage as they get 16 more days of rest than their opponents (in contrast, the 49ers have the worst at -21 days). The slate is tough early on with four of their first five games against Kansas City, Dallas, Buffalo and Cincinnati, all of which are in the top ten in Super Bowl odds.

The 10.5 wins look to be spot on as we see about 12 games that are swing games so going just 6-6 in those will give them the over but in all actuality, the Ravens should win more than those as we are counting all division games in that mix. The net rest edge is a huge advantage as well as they caught a break with the condensed grouping of some schedules is affecting a lot of teams. The Ravens are not the favorites to win the AFC North which is based on their schedule and personnel changes but they will be right there although there is no value on this number after coming in at +220 last season. Barring significant injury, getting to and winning the Super Bowl is in play but as is the case again, the AFC is loaded and wide open.


Cincinnati Bengals: 9-8 ~  1-5 AFC North ~ 7-8-2 ATS ~ 10-7-0 O/U
Finished 4th in the AFC North, Missed Playoffs
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 17

Notable Additions: RB Zack Moss, TE Mike Gesicki, OT Trent Brown, DT Sheldon Rankins, S Geno Stone, S Vonn Bell

Notable Losses: RB Joe Mixon, WR Tyler Boyd, TE Irv Smith, OT Jonah Williams, DT D.J. Reader, CB Chidobe Awuzie, S Nick Scott

Notable Draft Selections: OT Amarius Mims, DT Kris Jenkins, WR Jermaine Burton, NT McKinnley Jackson, TE Erick All, CB Josh Newton

The Bengals had a trying 2023 season but somehow were still in the playoff mix at 8-6 but back-to-back losses at Pittsburgh and Kansas City did them in yet a 9-8 finish was still impressive. It is safe to say the success of Cincinnati revolves around the health of quarterback Joe Burrow. The Bengals went 5-5 in games he played but four of those losses were when he was not healthy, three with his calf injury and the final one when he hurt his wrist against Baltimore. Keeping him upright is of the utmost importance and after allowing 50 sacks last season, the offensive line has been upgraded with Trent Brown and draft pick Amarius Mims. Team veterans Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd are gone but there should be no drop-off in either unit. While a lot of the blame for missing the playoffs was because Burrow was rarely 100 percent, the defense has to take most, if not all of the blame. The Bengals were No. 28 in Defensive EPA including No. 29 against the run and No. 25 against the pass. There have been changes along the line and in the secondary but will it be enough? The first half of the schedule is a must for a quick start as they face five teams that went a combined 24-61 and two of their toughest games against Baltimore and Philadelphia are both at home. Five of the last eight games are on the road.

The Bengals do have slightly higher odds across the board to win the AFC North, AFC and Super Bowl from last season yet their regular season win total is higher than it was in 2023. That might not make much sense but the makeup of this team justifies it. The schedule is backloaded so if Cincinnati gets off to a hot start which it should, it can use that momentum to steal some games in the second half so going over the win total is conceivable as is winning the AFC North. The makeup of this team refers to the fact the Bengals are awful on defense without making enough improvement and they will not be able to make a playoff run without a potent defense so making any move on winning the conference or the Super Bowl seems a stretch.


Cleveland Browns: 11-7 ~  3-3 AFC North ~ 10-7-1 ATS ~ 11-6-1 O/U
Finished 2nd in the AFC North, Lost in the AFC Wild Card Round
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 1

Notable Additions: QB Jameis Winston, QB Tyler Huntley, RB Nyheim Hines, RB D’Onta Foreman, WR Jerry Jeudy, OT Hakeem Adeniji, DT Quinton Jefferson, LB Jordan Hicks, LB Devin Bush, CB Tony Brown

Notable Losses: QB Joe Flacco, RB Kareem Hunt, TE Harrison Bryant, C Nick Harris, DT Shelby Harris, DT Jordan Elliott, LB Anthony Walker, LB Sione Takitaki, S Duron Harmon

Notable Draft Selections: DT Michael Hall, G Zak Zinter

Cleveland was in the same boat last season as Cincinnati as it had quarterback issues but the difference between the Browns and Bengals was that the Browns had a defense, actually, one of the best in the league. It did not do them any good in the playoffs as they were bounced by Houston in a blowout but going 11-7 possibly gives them a lot to look forward to. No one saw Joe Flacco coming from his couch to take the Browns into the postseason but now it is time for Deshawn Watson to show his worth. Suspensions and injuries have limited him to 11 games in Cleveland but only four of those resulted in a passer rating of 90 or higher so he needs to revert to his time in Houston. The offense was also able to overcome the loss of running back Nick Chubb to have an average running game but he will not be ready to start the season so the signings of Nyheim Hines and D'Onta Foreman is a good temporary fix. The defense should be just as good with the only significant loss being linebacker Anthony Walker. The offense has a chance to come together early as after the opener at home against Dallas, the Browns face the Jaguars, Giants, Raiders and Commanders in consecutive weeks although three of those are on the road and then 10 of the last 12 games are against legitimate playoff teams.

Looking at this schedule makes it hard to find nine wins as there are only a few sure wins with numerous swing games, a very tough division and crossover games against the Cowboys, Eagles, Chargers and Chiefs. For a team that finished with 11 wins and now having an 8.5 number put on them and not having much change going into this season shows the oddsmakers know this team overachieved so taking the under at plus money is the better option based on this slate and with the injury prone Watson under center with a turnover machine as his backup. That being said, there is no value on the division number and this is not a Super Bowl ready team and while missing the playoffs is juiced at -175, it like the safe bet.


Pittsburgh Steelers: 10-8 ~  5-1 AFC North ~ 10-8-0 ATS ~ 7-11-0 O/U
Finished 3rd in the AFC North, Lost in the AFC Wild Card Round
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 3

Notable Additions: QB Russell Wilson, QB Justin Fields, QB Kyle Allen, RB Cordarrelle Patterson, WR Van Jefferson, WR Quez Watkins, DT Dean Lowry, LB Patrick Queen, CB Donte Jackson, S DeShon Elliott, P Cameron Johnston

Notable Losses: QB Kenny Pickett, QB Mason Rudolph, WR Diontae Johnson, C Mason Cole, DT Armon Watts, OLB Markus Golden, LB Kwon Alexander, LB Blake Martinez, CB Levi Wallace, CB Chandon Sullivan, CB James Pierre, S Patrick Peterson, S Keanu Neal

Notable Draft Selections: OT Troy Fautanu, C Zach Frazier, WR Roman Wilson, LB Payton Wilson, C Mason McCormick

The Steelers came away with another winning season to sneak into the playoffs but they were no match for Buffalo in the Wild Card Round. You have to go all the way back to 2003 to find a losing record and head coach Mike Tomlin owns a run of 17 straight seasons at .500 or above. There have been three Super Bowls including two wins, with Tomlin going 1-1, but they have not made it since 2010 and this is likely not the year. Pittsburgh is a totally different team on offense from the start of last season, from offensive coordinator right down to the quarterback room. The Kenny Pickett experiment did not work out and he is out along with Mason Rudolph and they brought in Russell Wilson and Justin Fields and neither have shown much the last couple years to prove to turn around an offense that was No. 23 in Passing EPA last season. They will again rely on the running game with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. The defense once again was solid and it all revolves around T.J. Watt as Pittsburgh was 8-2 when he played and 1-6 when he did not but it needs to figure out to succeed around him as while his 19 sacks were outstanding, only one other player had more than four sacks. A big addition is linebacker Patrick Queen coming over from the division rival Ravens and the secondary improved with Donte Jackson and DeShon Elliott coming over from Carolina and Miami respectively to compliment Joey Porter, Jr. and Minkah Fitzpatrick. But it all comes down to Watt staying healthy.

Since 2004, Pittsburgh has been an over machine. It is 14-6 to the over and making that even more impressive is their lowest preseason win total was 7.5 twice and four of the six under wins were when they had a double-digit win total. The Steelers have cashed the over in 11 of 13 seasons when it is single digits. Does the train keep rolling or is it time to deboard? Pittsburgh has the most bizarre schedule as its first nine games are against non-vision foes and seven of those are winnable but they cannot slip up as Kansas City and Philadelphia are wrapped around the six division games in the final eight. There are just so many unknowns to make a speculation of the long term performance of this team so looking at in-season odds is the way go.

Colorado State vs Texas Prediction 8-31-24
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Matt Fargo Sports Colorado State +35

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  NCAAF   08/31   3:30 PM   Colorado State vs Texas
  PICK: Colorado State 35
s is a play on the COLORADO ST. RAMS for our Saturday Free Play. This line opened Texas -35 to -36 and was bet down to -32 in some places over a week ago but as expected, the public money is coming back in on the Longhorns and the number is rising again. They come into the season with National Championship aspirations and with the comes inflated number especially early on in the season against teams it should push around. This is not a layup though as Texas should not have any worries about losing but what they show is the big story. The Longhorns have a game against Michigan on deck and it is very unlikely they open up the entire playbook here. Texas has seven starters back on offense highlighted by quarterback Quinn Ewers but a lot has to be replaced around the quarterback as Texas loses top five receivers. The Longhorns also lost leading rusher Jonathan Brooks and his replacement, CJ Baxter, was lost for the season with a torn ACL and PCL. The defense will be stout once again but the Longhorns do have a weak defensive line after losing their two best players. Colorado St. put together five straight winning seasons from 2013-2017 but now they have a string of six straight losing campaigns culminating with its 5-7 record last year. The Rams had a chance to make it to a bowl game but lost its season finale as a favorite at Hawaii. Four of the seven losses were by one possession so there was progress last season following back-to-back 3-9 campaigns and they are looking for the breakthrough. Head coach Jay Norvell has this team going in the right direction entering his third season after proven success at Nevada where he got out at the right time. The offense nearly doubled its output, going from 13.2 ppg in 2022 to 26.1 ppg in 2023 thanks to the top passing game in the MWC that finished No. 9 in the country led by all MWC quarterback Braydon Fowler-Nicolosi. His top target Tory Horton returns and while they lose their leading rusher, there was not much there anyway. The offensive line returns four of five starters. The defense regressed from 2022 but the Rams are athletic and will show improvement. Three of their top four tacklers that combined for 296 tackles are back and the secondary is loaded. Play (187) Colorado St. Rams

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Matt Fargo Sports   $2700.00 
Brian Bitler   $860.00 
Mikhail Kivowitz   $390.00 
Marc Lawrence   $300.00 
James Patrick Sports   $300.00

Miami Marlins vs San Francisco Giants Free Pick 8-30-24
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Matt Fargo Sports San Francisco Giants -1.5

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  MLB   08/30   10:15 PM   Miami Marlins vs San Francisco Giants
  PICK: San Francisco Giants -1.5
s is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS RL for our Friday Free Play. Miami is coming off a split in Colorado, winning the two games where the offense went off but it managed to score only two runs in each of the losses. This is the auto fade Miami spot as the Marlins are averaging 4.1 rpg since July 28 and the offense has been bad all season as the Marlins are second to last in baseball with a .294 wOBA, .673 OPS and a .134 ISO. Going back to May 19, Miami has scored three runs or less in 49 of 86 games and this includes getting shut out nine times over this span. The Marlins facing a left-handed starter has been bad news as they are 9-37 while averaging 3.0 rpg with a .229 average and a .644 OPS, both of which are third worst in the league and of those 37 losses, 32 have been by two or more runs and by an average of 3.9 rpg. The Giants are a game under .500 following a pair of losses in Milwaukee which concluded a 2-4 roadtrip. San Francisco has a slim shot at the National League Wild Card with an absolutely brutal upcoming schedule so this is the series it has to sweep to keep any hope alive. The Giants are huge favorites and for good reason but there is no chance laying the big number as the runline is where the value lies as the Marlins are in that 86 percent spot of losing this game by more than one run. Blake Snell was rolling along but then struggled with his command in his last start as he went just three innings against Seattle and while he did not allow a hit, he was charged with two earned runs no thanks to six walks and he was pulled after 74 pitches. After a rough first six starts, he has been one of the best in baseball since coming back from injury as he has a 1.30 ERA in his last nine starts which is No. 1 in baseball among 75 starters going at least 50 innings while his 37.1% K% is also the best in MLB. The Giants will face Adam Oller who is making just his third start with his last one being decent against the Cubs after getting shelled by Arizona. He now hits the road for the first time this season and while the Giants are not an elite offense, they have been much better at home with their .708 OPS. Play (962) San Francisco Giants -1.5 Runs

CFB 11-4 run going back to last year following a 1-1 start to 2024! SEVEN Week 1 Plays Posted! MLB 21-16 +$7,830 L37! 3-0 Triple Play tonight! NFL +$72,010 in profits L12 years! Week 1 posted soon! CFL on a 9-5 Run!



YESTERDAY'S LEADERS
Top Handicappers   Profit
TKwins (Tommy King)   $2000.00 
Brian Bitler   $1090.00 
Rob Vinciletti   $1000.00 
Anlyedge   $920.00 
James Patrick Sports   $300.00 

2024 AFC East Overview and Betting Preview
By Matt Fargo
https://topsportscappers.com/

Regular Season Win Totals and AFC East/Super Bowl Odds (via DraftKings)
Buffalo Bills: 10.5 Over +130 Under -155 ~ AFC East Winner +180 ~ Super Bowl Winner +1,500
New York Jets: 9.5 Over -155 Under +130 ~ AFC East Winner +180 ~ Super Bowl Winner +2,000
Miami Dolphins: 9.5 Over -135 Under -180 ~ AFC East Winner +200 ~ Super Bowl Winner +2,200
New England Patriots: 4.5 Over -135 Under +110 ~ AFC East Winner +2,500 ~ Super Bowl Winner +18,000

Coaching Changes
New England Patriots: Bill Belichick Out ~ Jerod Mayo In

Team Previews

Buffalo Bills: 12-7 ~  4-2 AFC East ~ 8-10-1 ATS ~ 8-11-0 O/U
Won AFC East, Lost in AFC Divisional Round
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 7

Notable Additions: QB Mitchell Trubisky, WR Curtis Samuel, WR Mack Hollins, OT La'el Collins, C Will Clapp, DE Casey Toohill, DT Austin Johnson, LB Nicholas Morrow, S Mike Edwards

Notable Losses: QB Kyle Allen, RB Damien Harris, WR Stefon Diggs, WR Gabe Davis, WR Trent Sherfield, C Mitch Morse, DE Shaq Lawson, DT Linval Joseph, DT Tim Settle, DT Poona Ford, DE/OLB Leonard Floyd, LB Tyrel Dodson, CB Tre'Davious White, CB Dane Jackson, S Micah Hyde, S Jordan Poyer

Notable Draft Selections: WR Keon Coleman, S Cole Bishop, DT DeWayne Carter, RB Ray Davis, C Sedric Van Pran

Buffalo won its fifth consecutive AFC East title last season but also coming off its fifth consecutive season of playoff disappointment. The Bills have won their last four Wild Card Round games but have dropped their last three Divisional Round games, all at home, including a devastating 27-24 loss to Kansas City last season. While not a complete rebuild around quarterback Josh Allen, Buffalo has replaced many pieces from these past teams, notably receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, center Mitch Morse and most of their starting secondary and this fresh start could be just what they need. Injuries hurt them throughout the season, mostly on the defense but the Bills still finished No. 8 in Defensive EPA and they allowed more than 24 points only four times. Those injuries could actually help going into this season with other players stepping up and gaining needed experience and winning jobs. Buffalo has already sustained a tough loss as All-Pro linebacker Matt Milano will miss about half the season with a bicep tear after missing a big chunk of last season as well. The offense took off after offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey was fired and Joe Brady was promoted and now having a full offseason and training camp, he will have them ready. The receiving corps will have a whole new look and after finishing No. 4 in Offensive Passing EPA, this group will be the wild card of how the offense continues to be productive.

We do not see any value in betting the 10.5 wins as a revamped roster along with a tough schedule will make it tough getting to 11 wins and we have no interest laying -155 on the under. The Bills have dropped to AFC East co-favorites with the Jets and it will be important to get through the first seven games with at least a 5-2 record as their next seven games are all against teams that had winning records last season including five double-digit winners. Buffalo is tied with the Eagles for the sixth lowest Super Bowl odds at +1,500 but this is the highest they have been since 2020 when they were +3,000 (+900, +600 and +1,100 the last three years) so there could be value there this season banking on the fact they are not overhyped and will not be over bet.


New York Jets: 7-10 ~  2-4 AFC East ~ 6-10-1 ATS ~ 7-10-0 O/U
Finished 3rd in the AFC East, Missed Playoffs
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 14

Notable Additions: QB Tyrod Taylor, WR Mike Williams, OT Tyron Smith, OT Morgan Moses, G John Simpson, DE Haason Reddick, DT Javon Kinlaw, DT Leki Fotu, CB Isaiah Oliver

Notable Losses: TE C.J. Uzomah, OT Duane Brown, OT Billy Turner, G Laken Tomlinson, C Connor McGovern, DE Carl Lawson, DE Bryce Huff, DT Quinton Jefferson, S Jordan Whitehead

Notable Draft Selections: OT Olu Fashanu, WR Malachi Corley, RB Braelon Allen

The Jets have not made the playoff since 2010, the longest active drought in the NFL at 13 seasons and that was all supposed to change last season with quarterback Aaron Rodgers signing with New York but those aspirations lasted four plays into the season when he went down with a torn Achillies and was lost for the season. It was up to Zack Wilson to take over the offense and it was a disaster with New York finishing dead last in the league in Offensive EPA and Offensive Passing EPA. Rodgers is back to full health but he is 41 years old and that injury risk is always there. The Jets shored up the offensive line by signing Tyron Smith but he too is an injury waiting to happen. Garrett Wilson is one of the best wide receivers in the NFL and they are hoping Mike Williams can strengthen the unit but again, he is an injury risk coming off a torn ACL. The defense kept the Jets respectable last season as they were No. 3 in Defensive EPA  thanks to an outstanding secondary which should be even better with safety Chuck Clark coming back after missing all of last season with a torn ACL. The rushing defense was an issue but Quinnen Williams can still dominate and the signing of Leki Fotu could be a huge addition. The lingering issue is newly acquired Haason Reddick who still has not signed and has requested a trade but if they can work this out, this will again be one of the best units in the AFC. If Rodgers can stay healthy, this team can be very dangerous. A big if though.

The Jets have the same win total as last season at 9.5 but it is more juiced at -155 compared to -125 in 2023 and this is risky bet based on many of the players they are relying on having had prior injury issues. It is a middle of the pack schedule with the possibility of 11-12 wins if everything goes right but in the NFL, we can never count on that. New York has shorter odds to win the division than they did last season with the retooled Buffalo roster having an impact on that. Again, this is another bet that will come down to the health of the roster. The Jets are +138 to miss the playoffs and that is an interesting bet to hedge with the +2,000 to win the Super Bowl as it would be a small win if they do not with a chance to still hedge in the playoffs if they do.


Miami Dolphins: 11-7 ~  4-2 AFC East ~ 10-8-0 ATS ~ 9-9-0 O/U
Finished 2nd in the AFC East, Lost in the AFC Wild Card Round
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 24

Notable Additions: TE Jonnu Smith, OT Jack Driscoll, C Aaron Brewer, DT Calais Campbell, DT Neville Gallimore, DT Benito Jones, DE/OLB Shaq Barrett, LB Jordyn Brooks, LB Anthony Walker, CB Kendall Fuller, CB Siran Neal, S Jordan Poyer

Notable Losses: WR Cedrick Wilson, G Robert Hunt, C Connor Williams, DE Andrew Van Ginkel, DE Emmanuel Ogbah, DT Christian Wilkins, DT Raekwon Davis, LB Jerome Baker, CB Xavien Howard, CB Eli Apple, S Brandon Jones, S Jerome Baker

Notable Draft Selections: DE Chop Robinson, OT Patrick Paul, RB Jaylen Wright, DE/OLB Mo Kamara

Miami opened the season 5-1 with an offense that could not be stopped with the lone loss over that stretch coming at Buffalo and that was a sign of things to come. Those five wins were all against non-playoff teams and of their 11 total victories, a two-point win over Dallas was the Dolphins only one against a team that made the postseason. They face an easy schedule for a second place team as they play 10 games against non-playoff teams from last season but of the other seven games, five of those are on the road. Possibly more important, they have only one home game at 1:00 prior to October 27 so they cannot take advantage of the heat and humidity edge hurting the opponents. Like many teams, the Dolphins offense was hurt by injuries with wide receiver Tyreke Hill being banged up in the second half of the season and the offensive line absolutely getting crushed. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was the one surprise that remained healthy and he led the NFL in passing with 4,624 yards but he does have a past. Miami has one of the best duo running back in Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane. The defense was just average and by the end of the season, they were too banged up to make any sort of playoff run. They lost Jaelan Phillips and Jalen Ramsey at different points so staying healthy will be a big part of improving their No. 15 Defensive EPA from last season. They lost tackle Christian Wilkins, end Andrew Van Ginkel and linebacker Jerome Baker so there are holes to fill.

The Dolphins are with the Jets at 9.5 wins but at smaller odds which could make them the more tempting take if deciding between the two. The intangible is their home/road splits with the schedule as they have one additional road game and have no home advantage in September and early October. Miami is slightly behind the Jets and Bills at +200 and this is where the value could lie as they are sort of the forgotten team in the mix even though they were +300 last year and +475 in 2022. The Dolphins have roughly the same odds as last season to win the conference and the Super Bowl and with their roster, they arguably have the highest ceiling in the division so a sprinkle on both of those could be the way to go.


New England Patriots: 4-13 ~  2-4 AFC East ~ 5-11-1 ATS ~ 7-10-0 O/U
Finished 4th in the AFC East, Missed Playoffs
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 8

Notable Additions: QB Jacoby Brissett, RB Antonio Gibson, WR K.J. Osborn, TE Austin Hooper, OT Chukwuma Okorafor, G Nick Leverett, DT Armon Watts, ILB Sione Takitaki, S Jaylinn Hawkins

Notable Losses: QB Mac Jones, RB Ezekiel Elliott, TE Mike Gesicki, OT Trent Brown, C James Ferentz, LB Mack Wilson, CB Myles Bryant, CB J.C. Jackson, S Jalen Mills

Notable Draft Selections: QB Drake Maye, WR Ja'Lynn Polk, OT Caedan Wallace, G Layden Robinson, WR Javon Baker

It has been a quick descent for the Patriots as they are coming off a 4-13 season which was their worst record since going 2-14 back in 1992. They have missed the playoffs in consecutive years for the first time since 1999-2000 and you can pretty much assure that the streak will hit three seasons. Now they will play their first season without head coach Bill Belichick as his tenure in New England has come to an end after 24 seasons. It will be up Jerod Mayo to put a competitive team on the field with very little to work with and playing in a very strong division. The offense was atrocious as the Patriots finished No. 31 in Offensive EPA and the Mac Jones era is over after a short stint. New England hopes they did not draft a Jones clone in quarterback Drake Maye but he will likely serve as the backup to Jacoby Brissett. Whoever gets the nod does not have a clear No. 1 receiver to throw to as Kendrick Bourne is the top guy but is coming off a torn ACL and will not be 100 percent. The offensive line is a mess which could hinder the production of Rhamondre Stevenson. New England was actually solid on defense as they were No. 9 in EPA and that unit will be the only thing that keeps them somewhat competitive. This does not look like a last place schedule as outside of playing the AFC East and AFC South, the crossover games feature six of seven games against opponents that should be right in the playoff mix with Arizona being the lone exception although the Cardinals will be much improved.

The oddsmakers are not seeing much improvement as they have put a 4.5-win total on them after not coming close to the 7.5-win total placed on them last season. After going 8-0-2 to the over from 2010-2019, New England has gone under three of the last four years, eclipsing the total by just a half-game in 2021. The schedule is pretty brutal and with plus money next to the under, that would be the way to go as they are likely to be underdogs in every game this season. As far as any division, conference or Super Bowl bets, save your cash. DraftKings does have the Patriots at +2,500 to go 0-17, along with the Broncos and Panthers, and while any team going winless is getting less likely in this league, this could be the one team to do it.

New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks Free Pick 8-29-24
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Matt Fargo Sports Arizona -115

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  MLB   08/29   3:40 PM   New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks
  PICK: Arizona Diamondbacks -115
s is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS for our Thursday Free Play. The Diamondbacks had their six-game winning streak snapped with a loss on Tuesday but got it back last night and remain a game up on the Padres for the No. 1 Wild Card spot and Arizona is still three games behind the Dodgers in the National League West. Arizona is 11 games over .500 at home where it has a .781 OPS which is best in the National League and the pitching matchup is again in their favor but the line is not giving them the credit so there is value again with the second hottest team in baseball since the All Star Break at 25-9. New York has been stuck in neutral since a five-game winning streak at the end of July as it is 14-16 since then and the Mets have been middle of the road on both sides. They are now four games behind the Braves for the final National League Wild Card spot as it continues to be an uphill battle with no consistency with time running out. They have been decent on the road which is in play in keeping this number down but we remain unsold on the starter tonight. David Peterson has a 2.85 ERA on the season in 15 starts which is pretty solid but his metrics do not line up well here. He does not make any qualified rankings based on limited innings but among all 131 starters tossing at least 80 innings, he is No. 109 in SIERA at 4.67. He is not a high strikeout pitcher and has a high walk rate which has put his K-BB% at 8.0% which is No. 121 out of those 131 starters and this is not the offense to face to fix any of this. Ryne Nelson is coming off three straight quality starts and he is a pitcher that is going through positive progression as since the start of July, he is No. 27 with a 3.51 ERA among 105 starters that have gone at least 60 innings. His BB% is 4.7% which is No. 13 among those 105 starters and one thing that has picked up is his K% that is 31.7% over his last five starts, No. 6 of the 37 starters that have gone at least 30 innings since the end of July. Play (908) Arizona Diamondbacks

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2024 Sun Belt Conference Preview
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Regular Season Win Totals and SBC Championship Odds (via DraftKings)

Appalachian State: 8 Over -130 Under +110/+275 SBC Winner
Texas State: 8 Over -135 Under +115/+400 SBC Winner
James Madison: 8 Over -130 Under +110/+750 SBC Winner
Louisiana: 7.5 Over -140 Under +120/+600 SBC Winner
Coastal Carolina: 6.5 Over +115 Under -135/+1,600 SBC Winner
South Alabama: 6.5 Over -150 Under +125/+850 SBC Winner
Troy: 6.5 Over +100 Under -120/+1,500 SBC Winner
Marshall: 6 Over +110 Under -130/+1,600 SBC Winner
Arkansas State: 5.5 Over -170 Under +140/+1,500 SBC Winner
Georgia Southern: 5.5 Over +120 Under -140/+2,200 SBC Winner
Georgia State: 4.5 Over +130 Under -155/+5,000 SBC Winner
Old Dominion: 4.5 Over +120 Under -140/+3,000 SBC Winner
Southern Miss: 4.5 Over +150 Under -185/+4,000 SBC Winner
Louisiana-Monroe: 2.5 Over +135 Under -160/+40,000 SBC Winner

Coaching Changes

Georgia State: Shawn Elliott Out ~ Dell McGee In
South Alabama: Kane Wommack Out ~ Major Applewhite In
James Madison: Curt Cignetti Out ~ Bob Chesney In
Louisiana Monroe: Terry Bowden Out ~ Bryant Vincent In
Troy: Jon Sumrall Out ~ Gerad Parker In

Appalachian State Mountaineers 9-5 ~ 6-3 SBC ~ 6-7-1 ATS ~ 7-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 6

It has been a very consistent run for Appalachian St. which has never had a losing season since entering the FBS in 2014 and the only two times it was not bowl eligible was its first probation season and in 2022 when two of its wins were against FCS opponents. The Mountaineers have been to the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game in two of the last three years but have yet to win one for head coach Shawn Clark who is now in his fifth season, compiling a 34-18 record and he will be a sought out commodity if they are successful again which we expect they should be and are slight favorites despite the third straight seasons of retuning just 11 total starters. The offense has been steady, averaging at least 33.2 ppg every year since 2017 and the Mountaineers bring back one of the best quarterbacks in the conference in Joey Aguilar who passed for 3,757 yards with 33 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He has his top four receivers coming back but the offensive line has just one starter back. The defense has regressed each of the last two seasons but there should be improvements with six starters back and a much better front seven. They get Clemson, East Carolina and Liberty in the nonconference slate and four of their five toughest SBC games are on the road so it will not be easy.

Texas State Bobcats 8-5 ~ 4-4 SBC ~ 7-6-0 ATS ~ 7-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 9

Texas St. was one of the bigger surprises in the conference last season as it had put together eight straight losing seasons but ended up 8-5 including a win in its first ever bowl game, a 45-21 win over Rice in the First Responder Bowl. It was safe to say things might gain traction under first year head coach G.J. Kinne when the Bobcats opened the season with an 11-point victory at Baylor as 27.5-point underdogs and things could have been better as three of the five losses were by one possession. After losing to Coastal Carolina and Arkansas St. following becoming bowl eligible, the latter a 77-31 defeat which was the Red Wolves only SBC win last season, Texas St. rolled in its last two games to bring momentum into this season. The Bobcats had Auburn transfer T.J. Finley last season and he was one of the best quarterbacks in the SBC and now they bring in James Madison transfer Jordan McCloud who was just as good. Overall, nine starters are back including top receiver and running back and four of five offensive linemen. Nine starters are back on a defense that regressed by close to a touchdown per game but will show improvements. UTSA and Arizona St. will present a challenge in the nonconference and they miss the top five SBC teams from the East Division while having only four true road games.

James Madison Dukes 11-2 ~ 7-1 SBC ~ 8-5-0 ATS ~ 8-5-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 3

It has been a seamless transition from the FCS to the FBS for James Madison as it has gone a combined 19-5 in its two seasons. The shift to a new division however meant a probationary period as James Madison could not compete for a conference championship for two years, and it would have been in the SBC Championship Game both seasons, and could not go to a bowl game in the initial season. The Dukes were able to get to a bowl game last season where they lost to Air Force 31-21 in the Armed Forces Bowl but the probation status is over and they can finally play for something real. The problem is, they lost so much from the sidelines, they might not have the talent in a very deep and top heavy East Division. Head coach Curt Cignetti left for Indiana and took a lot with him as overall, James Madison has only seven starters back. Former Holy Cross head coach Bob Chesney had a lot of success there and looks to keep the program rolling but it might take a season to come together. Quarterback Jordan McCloud transferred to Texas St. while the six top receivers and four top running backs are gone. On defense, the entire line will be new. A 3-1 nonconference record is possible and they get the two bottom teams from the West Division but they should struggle in the East.

Louisiana Ragin Cajuns 6-7 ~ 3-5 SBC ~ 5-7-1 ATS ~ 8-5-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 8

Louisiana had to vacate 22 wins from 2011-2014 due to falsifying ACT scores for five players so four consecutive 9-4 seasons turned into a 14-16 combined stretch and it took time to recover but Bill Napier and finished his last three seasons 34-5 before heading to Florida. Michael Desormeaux took over in 2022 and was saddled with little to work with as he inherited 11 returning starters and the Cajuns had just 10 starters back last season. They went 6-7 both years, the losing records due to bowl losses, so in actuality, it was not all that bad given the situation and now in his third season, his systems and players are in place to get back to making title runs. Louisiana brings back seven starters on offense that was actually very effective last season despite injuries at the quarterback position where three were used. One of those was Chandler Fields who started four games and was very solid in his limited action. The Cajuns have to replace some key playmakers but have the top offensive line in the SBC. They have taken a big step back defensively the last two years but have eight starters back and should show significant improvement. The Cajuns have Tulane and Wake Forest out of conference and while they catch Appalachian St. they get them at home but do have to go to Texas St.

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers 8-5 ~ 5-3 SBC ~ 9-4-0 ATS ~ 4-9-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 6

The Chanticleers entered the FBS in 2017 and it took three years to find their footing but then they took off. The 2020 COVID season was out of sorts for many but Coastal Carolina was not affected as it went 11-0 before losing to Liberty 37-34 in overtime in the Cure Bowl and it followed that up with an 11-2 mark in 2021. They have fallen off slightly the last two seasons but not much as they have gone a combined 17-9, however this could be a trying one for head coach Tim Beck who enters his second season. The offense stayed consistent with 2022 despite the fact the Chanticleers lost All-SBC quarterback Grayson McCall for the entire second half of the season. He has departed and there is a camp battle between Ethan Vasko, who started four games last season and Michigan St. transfer Noah Kim. They do lose their top two receivers but their top two running backs return as does three starters from the offensive line and Beck has an offensive past so they should be just fine. Only six starters are back on defense but only five came back last year and they improved by 8.0 ppg so this unit should not regress too much. A 3-1 nonconference mark is possible with the opener at Jacksonville St. being a swing game but the loaded East Division could be their undoing and they face Louisiana from the West.

South Alabama Jaguars 7-6 ~ 4-4 SBC ~ 5-8-0 ATS ~ 7-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 3

South Alabama played its first ever football game in 2009 as an unclassified program, became a member of the FCS for just one season in 2011 and then entered the FBS and the Sun Belt Conference in 2012. The Jaguars did not have a single winning season in its first 10 years but they went 10-3 in 2022 and then went 7-6 last season so head coach Kane Wommack had this team headed in the right direction but he bolted for Alabama to become the defensive coordinator. South Alabama promoted offensive coordinator Major Applewhite to become the head coach and he has had head coaching success at Houston and as the OC here, the offense improved in each of his three years. They will be fine system-wise but personnel wise is a different story with only four starters back as they lose their quarterback along with a 1,000-yard plus running back and a 1,000-yard plus receiver. It looks to be up to redshirt freshman quarterback Gio Lopez to lead the unit. The defense could be worse off with only three starters back, two of which reside in the secondary so the front seven is nearly a total rebuild and there will be a big drop-off from its 21 ppg allowed. The schedule is a tough one with a possible 1-3 nonconference mark and in the SBC, they draw Appalachian St. out of the East on the road.

Troy Trojans 11-3 ~ 8-1 SBC ~ 8-6-0 ATS ~ 6-8-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 2/Defense 2

Troy was at the top of the SBC from 2016-2018 where it went 20-4 (31-8 overall) but head coach Neal Brown left for West Virginia and Chip Lindsey was hired but failed to produce a winning record in three seasons. Kentucky defensive coordinator Jon Sumrall was hired in 2022 and led to Trojans to a 12-2 record which included an 11-game winning streak to end the season after a 1-2 start and he followed that up with an 11-3 record last season and his two seasons included a pair of SBC Championship Game victories. He took off for Tulane and Troy hired Gerad Parker who was the offensive coordinator at Notre Dame and his first year will be a challenge as the Trojans have only two starters back on each side of the ball. They took a huge hit on offense as they lose a 3rd Team All-SBC quarterback, a 1,661-yard rusher and a 1,000-yard receiver so it will be up to Goose Crowder, who attempted only 13 passes last season, to take over behind an inexperienced line. Troy allowed 17.1 ppg each of the last two seasons but lose their entire defensive line and secondary so this could be big regression year. The nonconference slate includes games at Memphis and at Iowa and within the SBC, they avoid Appalachian St. from the East but face three teams in a four-game stretch coming off their bye week.

Marshall Thundering Herd 6-7 ~ 3-5 SBC ~ 4-9-0 ATS ~ 7-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 5

Marshall is coming off its first losing season since 2016 as it went 6-7 with a 35-17 loss to UTSA in the Frisco Bowl solidifying the under .500 mark. It could have been worse though as the Thundering Herd opened the season 4-0 but then lost its next five games, the last four by double digits and they could have cashed it in but won two of their last three games to become bowl eligible. While a losing season is never good to reflect on, the fact Marshall has gone to a bowl game in 10 of the last 11 years is very impressive for a team from a non-power conference where there is always shuffling between top and bottom and it is still something to build on. It could be another challenging season as Marshall brings back only 10 starters, its fewest since 2016 and it affects both sides of the ball. The offense has dipped each of the last three seasons with the quarterback play beyond horrible last season and the Herd are hoping Wake Forest transfer Mitch Griffis can provide a spark but there is not much around him. The defense allowed 12.7 more ppg than it did in 2022 but it was a new system and even with only five starters back, they should improve. Following a likely 2-2 nonconference record, they host Appalachian St. and also get to face the four worst teams in the SBC so the slate could save them.

Arkansas State Red Wolves 3-9 ~ 1-7 SBC ~ 7-5-0 ATS ~ 6-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 10/Defense 6

Arkansas St. went through five head coaches in five years from 2010-2014 with the last four all having success and eventually moving on. That included Blake Anderson who had six straight winning seasons before the 4-7 COVID year and he then left for Utah St. and the Red Wolves made another big hire in Butch Jones yet it did not start out well with a 5-19 record in his first two seasons but he got them bowl eligible last year before losing to Northern Illinois 21-19 in the Camellia Bowl. Now is the time to bring the big winning years back as everything is in place with the most experienced team in the conference and the fifth most experienced team in the country. The Red Wolves have 10 starters back on offense with the right guard only needing to be replaced. Quarterback Jaylen Raynor was named the SBC Freshman of the Year after a solid season and will only get better as they should surpass 30 ppg after averaging 27.1 ppg in 2023. The defense has only six starters back but all 11 starters are either juniors or seniors so expect a big improvement on this side of the ball after allowing over 30 ppg each of the last five years. Michigan and Iowa St. are losses outside the SBC and while the two tough West games against Texas St. and Louisiana are on the road, they get ODU and Georgia St. from the East.

Georgia Southern Eagles 6-7 ~ 3-5 SBC ~ 5-8-0 ATS ~ 7-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 8

Georgia Southern had its most successful season since coming into the FBS and the SBC in 2014 when it went 10-3 in 2018 under head coach Chad Lunsford but even after two more winning seasons following that, he was fired the next season after just four games following a 1-3 start. The Eagles were able to make a big hire as they snagged former USC head coach Clay Helton in 2022 and while it has been an average start with a pair of 6-7 seasons, brand new systems were put into place on both sides and those take time so this could be the breakout year they have been looking forward to for a while. The offense brings back only five starters after having eight return in each of the previous two seasons but there is a lot of talent and experience. It will be up to quarterback JC French to continue to lead a potent spread passing attack. The offensive line is weak and will have to learn quickly on the fly but four of the projected starters know the system. Eight starters are back on defense that has not been great but they are loaded up front and can make a big move up the rankings. It is a tough nonconference slate but they get Boise St. at home and arguably their four toughest conference games are all at home and the get the two worst teams in the East on the road.

Georgia State Panthers 7-6 ~ 3-5 SBC ~ 7-6-0 ATS ~ 6-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 6

It was a rough start for Georgia St. in its first four years at the FBS level where it went 10-39. After spending seven years in South Carolina, Georgia St. hired Shawn Elliott as their head coach in 2017 and while there were some ups and downs, he produced five winning records in his seven seasons before resigning in February to go back to South Carolina. He did leave on a winning note as after starting 6-1, the Panthers lost their last five regular season games but defeated Utah St. 45-22 in the Idaho Potato Bowl. New head coach Dell McGee spent the last eight years at Georgia as the run game coordinator and he comes into a tough situation. Georgia St. is No. 113 in the country in experience and brings back only four offensive starters. The Eagles lose quarterback Darren Grainger who is No. 2 in passing yards in program history as well as their top receiver and top running back. Additionally, four offensive line starters have to be replaced. They are better off on defense but not by much as they lose three of their top five tacklers and they do have significant holes on all three levels while breaking in a new system with a new defensive coordinator. The nonconference schedule is not bad but the SBC schedule is brutal with all four road games against contenders in their divisions.

Old Dominion Monarchs 6-7 ~ 5-3 SBC ~ 7-6-0 ATS ~ 6-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 6

Old Dominion has had only one winning season since coming up to the FBS level in 2014 as it went 10-3 in 2016 but it has had some success of late. The Monarchs had one of the worst two-year stretches you will ever see as they went 1-11 in 2019 and then completely shut football down during the 2020 COVID year but did make it to a bowl game the following year and again last season but lost both of those. It is a good building block but they bring back only 10 starters although they brought back just nine starters last season and were the fifth least experienced team in the country yet went to a bowl game so strange things can happen. The problem this year is that they face the second toughest schedule in the conference. Six starters are back on offense led by quarterback Grant Wilson who was fairly solid and should be better after 11 starts. Three running backs rushed for 606, 609 and 637 yards and he was one of those with the other two gone. The defense has been the issue as they have not allowed fewer than 27 ppg since 2010 and that likely will not change this year. They face four nonconference teams that are likely to go bowling so an 0-4 start runs into back-to-back road games. They get Appalachian St. on the road and have to face two of the top teams from the West.

Southern Miss Golden Eagles 3-9 ~ 2-6 SBC ~ 4-8-0 ATS ~ 9-3-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 6

Southern Miss opened last season with a win over Alcorn St. of the FCS and then went on to lose its next seven games, five of those by double digits but there was no quit as the Golden Eagles won their next two games despite no chance to go to a bowl before getting blown out by Mississippi St. and Troy to end the season. Despite some solid teams over the years, they have reached 10 wins only once since 1989 and have won exactly three games in three of the last four seasons. This is the fourth season for head coach Will Hall and he is likely on the hot seat but his one saving grace is that he brought in the best recruiting class of any team in the SBC so that could string on another year if thing do not go completely right. Southern Miss brings back just four starters on offense and it loses their starting quarterback but that is not a bad thing. They brought in Florida St. transfer Tate Rodemaker who does not have a ton of experience but played with and against great talent. The defense regressed by over 12 ppg last season as they were crushed by injuries but they got more experience from that which will help this season. Southern Miss has a chance to go 3-1 in nonconference games and the SBC is not too bad as they miss Appalachian St. and do not face a single team off a bye.

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks 2-10 ~ 0-8 SBC ~ 5-8-0 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 6

Louisiana-Monroe has been a bottom feeder in the SBC since joining in 2001 as it has won five or more games only four times and none one not time since 2012 which was the only season they have ever been to a bowl game. The recent stretch has been brutal as the Warhawks went 0-10 in the 2020 COVID year and followed that up with a pair of 4-8 campaigns. Last season, they opened 2-0 including a win over Army but closed the season with 10 straight losses and ended up getting doubled up in scoring margin (17.3-34.9). Louisiana-Monroe is just 5-26 in the conference over this four-year stretch and it is not going to get much better this year. Head coach Terry Bowden could not turn things around and now it is up to Bryant Vince who has one year of head coaching experience when he went 7-6 at UAB as an interim head coach. The offense brings back their leading rusher and one offensive lineman and that is it. The quarterback situation is a mess and their leading retuning receiver had only 71 yards last season. The defense was abysmal and there is not enough talent to muster any improvement to make up for the offense. Making it worse, they are at Texas and Auburn and they will be significant underdogs in every SBC game. A game against FCS Jackson St. to open the season could be the only win.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners Free Pick 8-27-24
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Matt Fargo Sports Tampa Bay Rays +138

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  MLB   08/27   9:40 PM   Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners
  PICK: Tampa Bay Rays 138
s is a play on the TAMPA BAY RAYS for our Tuesday Free Play. Tampa Bay is coming off a 5-1 series opening loss on Monday to make it two straight losses and dropped the Rays back under .500. Because of the top heavy American League, Tampa Bay is likely too far out to make a Wild Card run as it is seven games out they have not tossed it in yet. The Rays have played well on the road where they are just one game under .500 and are not getting any respect here despite a pitching matchup that is far from a big edge for the Mariners. Seattle has won two straight and three of its last four games to move two games over .500 and like the Rays, they are in the same boat in the Wild Card standings but they still are very much alive in the American League West where they are 3.5 games behind the suddenly struggling Astros. The Mariners have been the epitome of the classic home/road split as they are 40-27 here in Seattle compared to going 27-38 on the road and that is certainly a reason they are the heavy chalk, even more so than last night. Jeffrey Springs is making his comeback from having Tommy John surgery in April of 2023 and while the last couple months are nothing more than getting back into the groove without being pushed, he is getting comfortable. His first two starts were nothing great but he found something in his next two outings against Baltimore and Arizona which is saying something as those are two of the best offenses in the league. He faced in his last start against Oakland but now has a dream matchup. Despite a solid record at home, Seattle is dead last in home average at .207 and second to last in home OPS at .646 and making it worse tonight is facing a lefty as the Mariners are hitting .206 against left-handed pitching which is the worst in all of baseball while their .643 OPS is second worst. Logan Gilbert is having a solid season with a 3.21 ERA and 0.91 WHIP but he has been showing inconsistencies as he has a 5.74 ERA over his last five starts and while he has been mostly on the great side of his starts, the offense behind him has limited him to only seven wins and going back, the Mariners are 1-6 in his last seven starts. Play (919) Tampa Bay Rays

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Atlanta Braves vs Minnesota Twins Free Pick 8-26-24
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Matt Fargo Sports Minnesota Twins Even

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  MLB   08/26   7:40 PM   Atlanta Braves vs Minnesota Twins
  PICK: Minnesota Twins 100
s is a play on the MINNESOTA TWINS for our Monday Free Play. The weekend did not go as planned for Minnesota which lost two of three against St. Louis for its second straight series loss following a 3-2 on Sunday. The Twins are still hanging tough in the American League Central as they trail the Guardians by three games along with the Royals with both sitting 4.5 games ahead of Boston for the final two Wild Card spots. The offense continues to smash as since the All Star Break, Minnesota is No. 7 in OPS at .752 and No. 8 in wRC+ at 112. The Twins remain home where they are 37-26 and the offense has led the way with a league leading .794 OPS and the second highest expected wOBA at .367. Atlanta had its three-game winning streak snapped with a 1 loss against Washington on Sunday and it hits the road on a 6-2 run over its last eight games which has put the Braves six games behind the Phillies in the National League East and two games up on the Mets in the Wild Card. They are two games over .500 on the road and come in as the false favorite because of the name while the injury bug simply will not go away. Bailey Ober is part of a strong Minnesota rotation and he has quietly gone about his business for a third straight season as he has a 3.54 ERA which is right in line with his 3.34 xERA. He has tossed 11 straight quality outings going back to June 16 and has a 2.09 ERA which is third best in baseball among qualified starters and his BAA of .166 is No. 2. He is ranked No. 8 in K-BB% over this stretch and this has been a strength as over the last two full seasons, 58 starters have gone at least 250 innings and he is No. 10 in K-BB% and he is No. 3 in WHIP at 1.03. Max Fried is coming off a solid outing against the Phillies as he allowed two runs over seven innings but we do not think he is still totally right. He has been less consistent and since returning from injury, he has not looked the same as he has a 6.10 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in three starts while posting a 24:12 K:BB ratio. His struggles go back further with his command as since June 11, he has a 9.9% BB% which is No. 98 among 110 starters that have gone at least 50 innings and he has another tough one here. Play (972) Minnesota Twins

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New York Mets vs San Diego Padres Free Pick 8-25-24
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Matt Fargo Sports San Diego Padres -116

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  MLB   08/25   4:10 PM   New York Mets vs San Diego Padres
  PICK: San Diego Padres -116
s is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES for our Sunday Free Play. The Padres dropped Game Three of this series on Saturday 7-1 but only three of those New York runs were earned and San Diego will be out to split this series and avoid falling further behind the Dodgers in the National League West as they are now 4.5 games out following a 4-5 run. They dropped to 36-32 at home and a loss here brings the Mets and Braves back into play for the final two spots in the National League Wild Card between these three teams. New York has won three of its last four games to pull within 2.5 games of the Braves for that final Wild Card spot. The Mets are now four games over .500 on the road and they have a very similar offense as the Padres which is part of the reason this number is as short as it is but the Mets have a huge pitching disadvantage despite what the top level numbers are showing. Jose Quintana is coming off another bad start as he allowed seven runs in five innings against Baltimore to push his ERA to 4.57 that includes a 9.19 ERA over his last three outings. He has a 4.97 xERA and he has been fortunate with career best numbers in BABIP and Strand Rate which are both above league averages. He has a 5.12 FIP and 4.69 xFIP with the former being the worst among 62 qualifies starters. The Padres remain a top offense in baseball as they are tied for No. 6 in wOBA at .324. Martin Perez does have a tough matchup against a Mets offense but they have been up and down of late while Perez has been pitching his best of the season. He has allowed three runs or less in five straight starts where he has posted a 2.17 ERA over 29 innings. Overall, he has a 4.67 ERA in his 19 starts with most of the damage done while with Pittsburgh as he has a 1.96 ERA since coming over to San Diego to go along with a 21:3 K:BB ratio. Play (908) San Diego Padres

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2024 Southeastern Conference Preview
BY Matt Fargo
https://topsportscappers.com/

Regular Season Win Totals and SEC Championship Odds (via DraftKings)

Georgia: 10.5 Over -125 Under +105/+190 SEC Winner
Texas: 10.5 Over +150 Under -180/+320 SEC Winner
Ole Miss: 9.5 Over -115 Under -105/+650 SEC Winner
Alabama: 9.5 Over +120 Under -140/+750 SEC Winner
LSU: 9 Over -120 Under +100/+1,000 SEC Winner
Missouri: 9.5 Over +135 Under -160/+1,800 SEC Winner
Tennessee: 8.5 Over -170 Under +145/+1,600 SEC Winner
Texas A&M: 8.5 Over -120 Under +100/+1,400 SEC Winner
Auburn: 7.5 Over +125 Under -145/+6,000 SEC Winner
Oklahoma: 7.5 Over -120 Under +100/+3,000 SEC Winner
Kentucky: 6.5 Over -115 Under -105/+10,000 SEC Winner
Arkansas: 4.5 Over -110 Under -110/+25,000 SEC Winner
Florida: 4.5 Over -155 Under +130/+12,000 SEC Winner
South Carolina: 5.5 Over -115 Under -105/+12,000 SEC Winner
Mississippi State: 4 Over -150 Under +130/+40,000 SEC Winner
Vanderbilt: 3 Over -125 Under +105/+100,000 SEC Winner

Coaching Changes

Alabama: Nick Saban Out ~ Kalen DeBoer In
Mississippi St.: Zach Arnett Out ~ Jeff Lebby In
Texas A&M: Jimbo Fisher Out ~ Mike Elko In

Georgia Bulldogs 13-1 ~ 8-0 SEC ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 7

Georgia was cruising along as it posted a perfect 12-0 regular season and was well on its way to try and win a third straight National Championship but was upset by Alabama 27-24 which knocked it out of the top four and put the Tide into the CFP. Georgia is the epitome of a team that reloads instead of rebuilds and that is the case again this season. They brought back 13 starters in 2021 and 10 starters in 2022 in their championship seasons while last season they had 13 starters back and were once again No. 1 throughout the season. The Bulldogs bring back 14 starters, their most since 2017, and they come in as the favorite once again. Quarterback Carson Beck will be a Heisman Trophy favorite and while they need to replace their top two rushers and three of their top four receivers, they will be just fine, especially having one of the best offensive lines in the country. The defense allowed its most points since 2000, but giving up 15.6 ppg is still pretty darn good and they will be better with seven starters back and they are loaded. They are stacked at all three levels and have the potential to match the 2021 unit. They open with Clemson, their only true nonconference test, while the SEC is no cakewalk with an early game at Alabama and later games at Texas and Mississippi.

Texas Longhorns 12-2 ~ 8-1 Big 12 ~ 6-5-1 ATS ~ 4-8-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 8

Texas is in its inaugural season in the SEC and while it is a significant upgrade from the Big 12, the Longhorns are expected to give Georgia all it can handle to claim the SEC. Their only regular season loss was against Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry on a last second touchdown but they still made it to the CFP where they had a chance to beat Washington but failed with three straight incompletions in the final seconds from the 12-yard line. It was the first double-digit winning season since 2018 and this team looks to be back at the top for the foreseeable future. Texas has seven starters back on offense highlighted by quarterback Quinn Ewers but like Georgia, a lot has to be replaced around the quarterback as Texas loses its top rusher and top five receivers but it has an offensive line that rivals that of the Bulldogs. While the defense will not have to carry the offense, it could if needed even with what is considered a weak defensive line after losing their two best players. The Longhorns make up for it with top four units in the SEC at linebacker and secondary. They face an improved Colorado St. team before heading to Michigan in Week 2. The SEC slate is one of the best as of the top seven teams not including them, they miss five and while the one is Georgia, it is at home.

Mississippi Rebels 11-2 ~ 6-2 SEC ~ 7-4-1 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 5

The Rebels have been on the cusp of something really special in each of the last three seasons but have not been able to get over the hump as Alabama has gotten in the way twice in 2021 and 2023 and LSU stopped their 7-0 start in 2022. Head coach Lane Kiffin is brash and cocky to a lot of people but he wins and he has turned this program around with double-digit winning seasons two of the last three years as prior to this, Mississippi produced only three 10-win seasons since 1963. This edition of the Rebels could and should be the best of them all as they come into 2024 as the most experienced team in the SEC and No. 13 in the country thanks to 20 returning starters. Quarterback Jaxson Dart would arguably be the top quarterback in every other Power 4 Conference but the SEC is loaded at that position so he might be flying under the radar with a loaded receiving corps and a top offensive line in front of him. Defense has always been an issue in Oxford but last season the Rebels allowed their fewest points since 2014 and after bringing in a haul through the transfer portal, they should be even better. The nonconference slate is a joke and of the 10 teams with win totals of 7.5 or more, they face only three of those and two are at home while they avoid both Texas and Alabama.

Alabama Crimson Tide 12-2 ~ 8-0 SEC ~ 8-4-0 ATS ~ 9-2-1 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 6

Alabama suffered an early season loss to Texas but did not slip up the remainder of the season, including a miracle win at Auburn, to make it to the CFP for the eighth time before getting upended by Michigan in overtime, showing how important it is to lose early if you are going to lose. That was the 16th consecutive season with double digit wins but those of course were all under head coach Nick Saban who called it a career as arguably the greatest college coach of all time and now Kalan DeBoer walks into the footsteps of a legend. He will not be intimidated as he has been in the national spotlight and while the pressure will be there to keep winning, he has the talent to do so. The offense revolves around quarterback Jalen Milroe but he loses 1,793 receiving yards from his top three receivers behind a fairly weak offensive line. Alabama has allowed 20 points or less in an incredible 16 straight seasons and that streak should continue despite losing a lot to the NFL. Their strength will be on the backend which is big in a conference loaded with quarterbacks. The schedule is one of the toughest in the country despite a fairly weak nonconference slate that includes a game at Wisconsin. They face six of the other top nine SEC teams while facing four teams coming off a bye week.

LSU Tigers 10-3 ~ 6-2 SEC ~ 8-4-0 ATS ~ 11-1-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 6

Despite winning the National Championship in 2019, head coach Ed Orgeron was let go two years later despite one of those being the unpredictable COVID season but they seem to have made the right hire with Brian Kelly who has put together a 20-7 record in his first two seasons. The problem has been losing to Florida St. in the first game of the season both years and there has been too much room to make up while being unable to defeat some of the elite teams ahead of them including last season when they went 1-3 against top 25 teams. Now comes the real challenge of replacing Heisman Trophy winner quarterback Jayden Daniels but they might have the guy in Garrett Nussmeier who threw for 395 yards on 31-45 passing and three touchdowns in the ReliaQuest Bowl win. The issue is losing two top receivers who combined for 2,746 yards and their leading rusher was Daniels with 1,134 yards so there will be a call for playmakers to go with a top offensive line. LSU regressed defensively, finishing No. 103 overall and No. 79 in scoring and this unit needs to improve with a new coordinator in place. LSU faces USC on a neutral field and UCLA at home and within the conference, they avoid Georgia and Texas while catching their three biggest tests all at home.

Missouri Tigers 11-2 ~ 6-2 SEC ~ 8-4-0 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 5

Missouri had not had a winning season since 2018 although it finished exactly .500 during the regular season every season between 2019 and 2022 and while more of the same was expected last year, the Tigers were completely underrated and went off for an 11-2 campaign, their first double digit winning season since 2014. Eli Drinkwitz had a warm seat going into last season but that is long gone as he earned a contract extension through 2028 and his team is loaded once again to go along with a schedule that is ranked in the 60s and it is the easiest in the SEC so something special is possible. The offense brings back nine starters but the Tigers lose All American running back Cody Schrader who rushed for a school record 1,654 yards so that will be impossible to replace. Quarterback Brady Cook had a great season but was limited because of Schrader but now he will be asked to unleash it with the best receiving corps in the conference with his top five targets returning. The offensive line is not the best but extremely experienced. Missouri had their best defense since 2019 but lost five top five round picks yet should still be fine. Their first four games are at home, they will go 4-0 in the nonconference and they miss Georgia, Texas, Mississippi and LSU and face only one team off a bye.

Tennessee Volunteers 9-4 ~ 4-4 SEC ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 6-5-1 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 5

In 13 years from 2008-2020, Tennessee won nine games only twice as it went through five head coaches, albeit one of those was the final season for the legendary Phillip Fulmer, but the Volunteers seemed to have found their guy. Josh Heupel has put together a winning record in each of his first three seasons and the 27 total wins are the best in a three-game stretch since 2002-2004 so Rocky Top is buzzing with some long awaited excitement. This season will pose some challenges though as Tennessee comes in as the fourth least experienced team in the conference but a fairly easy schedule will at least bring them another winning record. The Volunteers took a big step back on offense and have to replace five starters but they are high on quarterback Nico Iamaleava who is an athletic duel threat that played great in the Citrus bowl last season. The defense has to replace six starters and the success of their season could rely on their back seven which is the third weakest in the conference, ahead of only Mississippi St. and Vanderbilt, in a conference with incredible quarterback talent. The only tough nonconference game is a neutral site contest against NC State and in the SEC, other than Alabama at home and Oklahoma and Georgia on the road, all other games are winnable.

Texas A&M Aggies 7-6 ~ 4-4 SEC ~ 5-6-1 ATS ~ 7-5-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 9

If you look up the biggest disappointment in the SEC over the last three years in the dictionary, the Aggies logo will be prominently displayed. They opened 2021 and 2022 No. 6 in the preseason AP poll only to lose early and often and finish outside the top 25 both seasons as they did again last season. Texas A&M has had some of the best recruiting classes in the country and even with the talent, it underachieved under fired head coach Jimbo Fisher but now they might have found the right fit with former Duke coach Mike Elko who brought out the best of not so talented rosters and he was the defensive coordinator here from 2018-2021. Nine starters are back on offense led by quarterback Connor Weigman who has made four starts each of the last two seasons, throwing 16 touchdowns and just two picks. He has an experienced trio of receivers and has one of the best running back groups in the conference. The defense also has nine starters back and should be much improved with Elko back in the mix as they will have a superior pass rush which will help out the secondary. Opening at home against Notre Dame and former Duke quarterback Riley Leonard will be interesting and in the SEC, they miss Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi while getting Texas, Missouri and LSU at home.

Auburn Tigers 6-7 ~ 3-5 SEC ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 5-6-1 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 8

Auburn is coming off its third consecutive losing season, the first time it has had three straight losing seasons since 1975-1977. Granted, two of those losing seasons were due to bowl losses but they all count and the pressure will be on head coach Hugh Freeze but the 6-7 season in 2023 was better than the record indicates. Three of the losses were against Georgia, Mississippi and Alabama and all by one possession with the latter coming on a late miracle touchdown by the Tide although a 21-point loss at home to New Mexico St. as a 26-point favorite should never happen. They come into this season with the sixth most experienced team and have a schedule that is difficult in spots but doable. The Tigers bring back nine starters on offense led by quarterback Payton Thorne who was inconsistent but has three years of starting experience, the other two at Michigan St. The leading receiver last season had 394 yards but incoming freshman Cam Coleman will change that along with a pair of wideouts from the transfer portal. The defense improved by a touchdown from 2022 and should get even better. The Tigers will go 4-0 in the nonconference which offsets a tough SEC slate that includes Georgia, Alabama and Missouri, all on the road and Texas A&M and Oklahoma at home.

Oklahoma Sooners 10-3 ~ 7-2 Big 12 ~ 8-4-0 ATS ~ 7-5-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 8

Oklahoma is the second team coming over from the Big 12 following a 10-3 season that could have been so much better. The Sooners opened 7-0 which included a win over Texas and they moved up to No. 6 in the AP Poll but then came a pair of consecutive road losses at Kansas and Oklahoma St. by a combined eight points. After a 6-7 record in 2022, head coach Brent Venables looks to have Oklahoma back where it belongs but a shift to the SEC and having to play the toughest conference schedule will be a true test. New coordinators on offense and defense could be challenging early on as well. The offense brings back seven starters but it has to replace quarterback Dillon Gabriel who transferred to Oregon so that is a big hit but the replacement is a big time recruit in sophomore Jackson Arnold. Even though they lose their top receiver, the Sooners have the third best group in the SEC. Oklahoma improved its defense by close to a touchdown and should improve more with eight starters back and the third season under Venables. The good news is the Sooners can break in the new parts with a weak nonconference schedule against Temple, Houston and Tulane. The bad news is that they play six of the top seven teams in the SEC and they miss Vanderbilt and Mississippi St.

Kentucky Wildcats 7-6 ~ 3-5 SEC ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 10

Head coach Mark Stoops was hired in 2013 coming into an awful situation and while it took him a couple years to make it his program, Kentucky has had a winning record in seven of the last eight seasons, the 2020 COVID year being the only exception. He has had two double digit winning seasons which is more impressive considering the Wildcats had only two in the history of the program prior to this, the last coming in 1977. A 5-0 start last season went south quickly as the Wildcats lost five of their next six games as the schedule ramped up but they made it to their eighth straight bowl game. Kentucky is the third most experienced team in the SEC but in this conference, sometimes that does not matter. There are eight starters back on offense and like many teams in the SEC, the Wildcats have to replace their quarterback with Devin Leary off to the NFL but there is high anticipation for Georgia transfer Brock Vandagriff. They lose Ray Davis out of the backfield but DeaMonte Trayanum from Ohio St. should fill the void. 10 starters are back on defense after bringing five back each of the past three seasons and they will be better than last season. All four nonconference games are at home so they have only four road games but three are tough. They do avoid Alabama, LSU and Missouri.

Arkansas Razorbacks 4-8 ~ 1-7 SEC ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 8-3-1 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 8

It was an absolute mess that former head coach Chad Morris left for current head coach Sam Pittman who was hired in 2020 and that weird season resulted in a 3-7 record but things turned around with a pair of winning season but then last year hit. The Razorbacks opened 2-0 against inferior teams but that was followed up by a six-game losing streak that included a stretch of four straight non-home games and they could not recover enroute to a 4-8 record. That six-game skid included five losses by one possession and three of those were against Alabama, Mississippi and LSU all away from home and on the season, they were only -1.3 ppg in scoring differential so it was not as bad as that record shows. The offense took a huge step back last season as they regressed by 144 ypg from 2022 despite KJ Jefferson at quarterback. He has departed and Boise St. transfer Taylen Green takes over. Arkansas has its top eight receivers back so the offense can get back to its 2022 numbers. The defense made up for it somewhat, improving by 108 ypg and have their most experienced unit returning since 2021. The Razorbacks have three winnable nonconference home games but travel to Oklahoma St. and while they miss Alabama and Georgia, they have to play seven of the other top nine in the SEC.

Florida Gators 5-7 ~ 3-5 SEC ~ 4-8-0 ATS ~ 7-4-1 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 8

Florida opened last season 5-2 and cracked the AP Top 25 but the Gators went on to lose their final five games, four coming against ranked teams, to make it three straight losing seasons in Gainesville. The last time they had three straight losing seasons was 1945-1947 so this is a pretty big deal although the previous two seasons was due to a bowl loss prior to the rugged late schedule last year. Head coach Billy Napier is not on the hot seat as this has not been a complete debacle but he does need to turn this around sooner rather than later however we are not sure if this is the year. The offense took a small dip in yards but scoring has remained steady over the last three seasons and they should show some improvement with Graham Mertz now in his second season in this system after completing 73 percent of his passes with 20 touchdowns and three interceptions last year. They have the playmakers and overall have the No. 5 ranked preseason offense. The defense did nothing to help out the offense and it too has been flat over the last three seasons but has to improve and it should if key parts come together in the back seven. The Gators play the hardest schedule in the country with Miami, UCF and Florida St. in the nonconference and they play all the big boys in the SEC sans Alabama.

South Carolina Gamecocks 5-7 ~ 3-5 SEC ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 8

The Gamecocks had eight wins in 2022 which was their second straight winning season but they could not carry that over into last year as they had only 10 starters back. South Carolina opened the season 2-2 with wins over Furman of the FCS and a bad Mississippi St. team then came four straight losses but the Gamecocks battled back with three wins and could have become bowl eligible with a win over Clemson but lost 16-7 in the season finale. This team is close as it needs a few breaks and needs to avoid injuries that crushed both lines last season and it needs to find consistency on offense. South Carolina scored 20 or fewer points seven times while scoring 37 or more points five times with nothing in-between and now a quarterback needs to break away from the pack between transfers Robby Ashford and Davis Beville and redshirt freshman LaNorris Sellers. The top three receivers are gone so it is a young group and they will rely on Arkansas transfer running back Raheim Sanders, who rushed for 1,443 yards in 2022. The transfer portal is going to play a big role in improving a defense that has not been good since 2017. Clemson is the only tough nonconference game and in the SEC, the Gamecocks avoid Georgia and Texas from the top and get Mississippi, LSU and Missouri at home.

Mississippi St. Bulldogs 5-7 ~ 1-7 SEC ~ 3-9-0 ATS ~ 6-5-1 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 5

College football lost a legend when Mississippi St. head coach Mike Leach passed away suddenly in December of 2022 after an 8-4 regular season and the Bulldogs beat Illinois 19-10 in the ReliaQuest Bowl in his honor. They hired Zach Arnett, who coached the bowl game, to take over and it lasted a total of 10 games as he was fired after a 51-10 loss to Texas A&M. Now on their third coach in less than two years, it will be up to former Oklahoma St. and Mississippi offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby to find some stability in this program that Leach was forming and has had only one double digit winning season since the turn of the century. It will not be easy this season being the least experienced team in the conference as Mississippi St. brings back only five starters on each side of the ball. The offense regressed by close to 10 ppg but Lebby will serve as OC with a more high powered attack led by Baylor transfer quarterback Blake Shapen. The leading rusher is gone, the top five receivers are gone and the entire offensive line is new. The defense will not be able to carry them as the Bulldogs lost nine of their top 12 tacklers and it is a big rebuild project. There are three possible nonconference home wins and within the conference, they miss Alabama and LSU but play six of the other top eight teams.

Vanderbilt Commodores 2-10 ~ 0-8 SEC ~ 2-10-0 ATS ~ 8-3-1 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 8

Vanderbilt will be the consensus pick to finish in last place for a sixth straight season as the Commodores have compiled a 3-38 conference record the previous five seasons with those three wins coming by a combined 17 points. Vanderbilt has not had a winning overall record since 2013 and a winning SEC record since 2012 and those have been the only two years they finished in the AP Top 25 since 1948. It has been a long road of misery for the administration and the entire fanbase and that is going to continue again this season but they should show improvement after getting outscored by close to two touchdowns per game last season. The offense gets an upgrade with New Mexico St. transfer Diego Pavia taking over at quarterback after two very productive years with the Aggies. Three starters are back on the offensive line along with two transfers with big starting experience but they need to find a running game that averaged only 95 ypg on 3.3 ypc and have to replace their top three receivers. The defense is what has devastated them as they have allowed over 35 ppg each of the last four years so there is a lot of room for improvement. They have two winnable nonconference games with a game at Georgia St. being a swing game and they play five of the top seven teams in the SEC.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Oakland Athletics MLB Pick 8-24-24
https://topsportscappers.com

Matt Fargo Sports Oakland Athletics +117

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Matt Fargo Sports

  MLB   08/24   4:07 PM   Milwaukee Brewers vs Oakland Athletics
  PICK: Oakland Athletics 117
s is a play on the OAKLAND ATHLETICS for our Saturday Free Play. The Brewers easily took the first game of this series as they jumped ahead 5-1 in the second inning and never looked back in the 11-3 win. The victory snapped a two-game losing streak and they moved to 36-30 on the road after dropping two of three in St. Louis. The National League Central is all but locked up and the Brewers last 37 games will be trying to catch the National League West three teams for best record in baseball but we do not like their matchup tonight. We have been high on Oakland over the second half of the season as it has been under the radar but its 55 wins are already five more than all of last season with 33 games still remaining. The Athletics have lost three of four but are 7-5 over their last 12 games and they are again in an undervalued spot being a non-public play. Since July 1, the Athletics are 25-17 which is tied with the Royals for the fourth best record in baseball, sitting behind only Arizona, San Diego and Houston. Overall, they have been much better at home than on the road as they are just two games under .500 in Oakland. Colin Rea is a prime candidate for negative regression. He has put up some really good starts this season which has led to a 3.52 ERA but he also throws in the random clunker as we saw two games back when he allowed seven runs against the Dodgers which came in-between two starts where he allowed no runs over seven innings. He is pitching to a 4.80 xERA and he ranks in the 28th percentile or lower in xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. The Oakland offense has been inconsistent of late but since July 1, they are No. 7 in wOBA at .328 while tied for No. 7 in ISO at .176. Joe Boyle was a late callup last season and he put up a 1.69 ERA in three starts and he ended up making the opening day roster. He did make four solid starts but he has three blowups and was eventually demoted to work on his stuff. He was recalled earlier this month and has made one start and while it was not a good one, it was on the road against the Mets and he followed that up by shutting out the Rays over six innings last time out. Play (970) Oakland Athletics

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2024 Pac 2/Independent Preview 8-23-24
By Matt Fargo
https://topsportscappers.com/

Regular Season Win Totals (via DraftKings)

Notre Dame: 10 Over -115 Under -105
Washington State: 7.5 Over -120 Under +100
Oregon State: 7.5 Over +110 Under -130
Connecticut: 4.5 Over -130 Under +110
Massachusetts: 3.5 Over -125 Under +105

Coaching Changes

Oregon State: Jonathan Smith Out ~ Trent Bray In

Notre Dame Fighting Irish 10-3 ~ 9-3-1 ATS ~ 9-4-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 9

Another year, another year of high expectations for Notre Dame. Double-digit wins in six of the last seven seasons while cracking the AP Top 10 in each of those seven seasons has brought the Fighting Irish nothing more than three top five finishes. Notre Dame has made the CFP twice, in 2018 and 2020, only to get blown out in the Semifinals both times and of late, early and mid-season losses have put a wrench in their plans. A controversial loss to Ohio St. after a 4-0 start was a stinger but then a 13-point loss at Louisville was unexpected and they were cooked again. They come into this season as preseason No. 7 and if they can avoid bad losses, the Fighting Irish will be in the CFP once again with the expansion definitely helping. Because they are not affiliated with a Power 4 conference, they cannot get a bye but that should not matter. They just have to get there first. They have 15 starters back but are just No. 101 in experience and will rely on Duke Transfer Riley Leonard to lead the offense that losses its top back and receiver. The defense was stout last season and will be again with nine starters back and a top five secondary. They only have three true road games including the first and last game against Texas A&M and USC. Everything else should be a win including getting Florida St. at home.

Washington State Cougars 5-7 ~ 2-7 Pac 12 ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 7-5-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 4

Washington St. had its seven-season bowl streak come to an end last season, not counting the 2020 COVID year when it played only four games, as it was a nightmare ending. The Cougars opened 4-0 including a pair of top 20 wins and they moved up to No. 13 in the AP Poll but then it was six straight losses before a win over an equally reeling Colorado team. Washington St. had a chance to still go bowling but lost to eventual CFP invitee Washington on a last second field goal. Now the Cougars enter 2024 with their future up in the air with the dissolving of the Pac 12 so they are basically playing as an Independent and will have to run the table to have any playoff consideration. We do not see that happening as they have only 10 starters back and are No. 121 in experience. They lose quarterback Cam Ward as he transferred to Miami while also losing their top two receivers. Washington St. had no running game last season as it averaged 85 ypg so it needs balance behind a very experienced offensive line. The defense is in bigger trouble with just four starts back as the Cougars have to replace their entire secondary. They play the No. 100 ranked schedule so there is some hope as they face two former Pac 12 teams, a Big 12 team and eight MWC teams and it looks doable to get back to a bowl.

Oregon State Beavers 8-5 ~ 5-4 Pac 12 ~ 6-7-0 ATS ~ 7-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 1

Oregon St. is the other former Pac 12 team without a home as it will have to regroup from a disappointing 2023 season. Disappointing in that it could have been something really special as the Beavers got to No. 11 midseason and No. 10 late season but they could not close as their first three conference losses were by a combined eight points. After years of misery, head coach Jonathan Smith turned the program around with three straight winning seasons for the first time since 2006-2009 when it had four straight winning campaigns. This is a great momentum builder but the regrouping stems from Smith leaving to take the job at Michigan St. and Oregon St. returning only five starters. The program promoted defensive coordinator Trent Bray to be the head coach and he will have his work cut out. Quarterback DJ Uiagalelei was solid last season but transferred to Florida St. and it will likely be Idaho transfer Gevani McCoy taking over. They also lost their top running back and top four receivers. Only one starter is back on defense that made big improvements the last two seasons but it will take a step back. They have three former Pac 12 teams on the slate to go along with seven MWC opponents as well as Purdue so the schedule is easy enough to make up for the departures.

Connecticut Huskies 3-9 ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 8

Head coach Jim Mora was hired in 2022 to try and turn around a program that had not had a winning record since 2011 and he came into a nightmare situation. The Huskies finished 2019 with a 2-10 record as they beat Wagner from the FCS and equally inept Massachusetts, completely shut the program down in 2020 and then went 1-11 in 2021, beating only FCS Yale. Hiring Mora certainly paid off as Connecticut became bowl eligible with a game to spare but they did finish 6-7 because of the bowl loss yet it was something to build upon. Unfortunately, that did not happen as the Huskies opened 1-9 but did win their final two games to restore a hint of confidence. Three losses came to ranked teams and four others were by one possession so it was not as bad as those past seasons. Six starters are back on offense counting quarterback Joe Fagnano who played only two games before being lost for the season. There is experience in the receiver room and the top two running backs return but three offensive linemen have to be replaced. The defense has the chance to be the best in a very long time with eight starters back and a new defensive coordinator from Mississippi St. Seven of the first nine games are at home and many are winnable so we could see another bounce back from Mora.

Massachusetts Minutemen 3-9 ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 6

After bringing football back in 2012 for the first time since 1906, Massachusetts entered the MAC and that marriage last only four years because the school did not want to become a full time member. They have made up after 10 years as the Minutemen are set to rejoin the MAC in 2025 but not after another miserable year as an Independent. It has been one of the worst runs in college football history as Massachusetts has gone 24-112 including six seasons with one or no wins. But there is something to build on as the three wins last season were the most since 2018 and they equaled the win total from the previous four seasons combined. Give credit to head coach Don Brown who turned teams around at the FCS level and was a successful defensive coordinator before being hired here in 2022. Offensively, the Minutemen improved by 10.7 ppg from 2022 and they do bring back quarterback Taisun Phommachanh and should improve again despite only four other starters back. The defense was atrocious, allowing over 37 ppg and there is not enough in place to make a big move up. Three SEC teams and three MAC contenders are on the slate but there are also two FCS teams along with Buffalo, Eastern Michigan and Connecticut so their over win total is possible but a bowl game is not.

Independiente Rivadavia vs Platense Free Pick 8-23-24
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Anlyedge Free Pick Independiente Rivadavia 160

Discount 50% off All Handicappers This Promotion will run for the next 2 weeks and then it will be gone.   So jump on the discounts while you can and all Picks/Packages are guaranteed to show a profit.

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  SOC   08/23   5:00 PM   Independiente Rivadavia vs Platense
  PICK: Independiente Rivadavia 160



YESTERDAY'S LEADERS
Top Handicappers   Profit
Brian Bitler   $3110.00 
The Winning Picks   $1330.00 
Professors Sports Picks   $1000.00 
Matt Fargo Sports   $800.00 
Marc Lawrence   $300.00 
James Patrick Sports   $300.00

2024 Mountain West Conference Preview
By Matt Fargo
https://topsportscappers.com/articles.php


Regular Season Win Totals and MWC Championship Odds (via DraftKings)

Boise State: 9 Over -150 Under +120/-110 MWC Winner
Fresno State: 8 Over +110 Under -140/+475 MWC Winner
UNLV: 7.5 Over +125 Under -160/+550 MWC Winner
Colorado State: 6 Over -140 Under +110/+1,200 MWC Winner
Air Force: 6.5 Over -140 Under +110/+1,100 MWC Winner
Wyoming: 6.5 Over +100 Under -130/+1,400 MWC Winner
San Jose State: 5 Over +120 Under -150/+5,000 MWC Winner
Utah State: 5 Over -125 Under -105/+3,000 MWC Winner
Hawaii: 5 Over -130 Under +100/+5,000 MWC Winner
San Diego State: 5.5 Over +105 Under -135/+2,800 MWC Winner
Nevada: 2.5 Over -120 Under -110/+30,000 MWC Winner
New Mexico: 2 Over -120 Under -110/+35,000 MWC Winner

Coaching Changes

Boise St.: Andy Avalos Out ~ Spencer Danielson In
New Mexico: Danny Gonzalez Out ~ Bronco Mendenhall In
San Diego St.: Brady Hoke Out ~ Sean Lewis In
San Jose St.: Brent Brennen Out ~ Ken Niumatalolo In
Nevada: Ken Wilson Out ~ Jeff Choate In
Wyoming: Craig Bohl Out ~ Jay Sawvell In
Utah St.: Blake Anderson Out ~ Nate Dreiling In
Fresno St.: Jeff Tedford Out ~ Tim Skipper In

Boise St. Broncos 8-6 ~ 6-2 MWC ~ 6-5-1 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 11

Following a 10-4 season in 2022, Boise St. was tabbed the favorite by many to repeat as regular season champions, the first season the MWC was without divisions and the Broncos finished in a tie with San Jose St. and UNLV and ended up rolling the Rebels in the MWC Championship Game before losing to UCLA 35-22 in the LA Bowl. The Broncos ended up 8-6 and went through a head coach firing which was an odd one as they were playing fine with a 5-5 record at the time with four of those losses by 13 combined points and the other against Washington. Boise St. went 3-1 with then interim head coach Spencer Danielson and he is in a great situation. Six starters are back on offense and while Boise St. has to replace Taylen Green, it should be in good hands with USC transfer Malachi Nelson who was a top 2 recruit in 2023. Running back Ashton Jeanty, who rushed for 1,347 yards and 14 touchdowns, returns as does most of the offensive line, while their top two wide receivers have to be replaced. The Broncos have 11 starters back on defense and even though they allowed 25.6 ppg last season, that experience is huge. Boise St. is at Oregon and hosts Washington St. and Oregon St. in the nonconference (they do not count in the MWC standings) while avoiding 3 of the other top six in the MWC.

Fresno St. Bulldogs 9-4 ~ 4-4 MWC ~ 4-8-0 ATS ~ 7-4-1 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 5

Not counting the 2020 COVID season, Fresno St. has won nine or more games in five of the other six seasons, the only team in the MWC that can make that claim. Last season, the Bulldogs got off to a 5-0 start and got into the AP Top 25 but lost a tough game at Wyoming by five points but won their next three games after that. Fresno St. was unable to keep that going and make a run to the MWC Championship Game as it lost its final three regular season games before blowing out New Mexico St. 37-10 in the New Mexico Bowl. Head coach Jeff Tedford returned for a second stint in 2022, replacing Kalen DeBoer who went to Washington and he was responsible for four of those 9+ recent win seasons but he stepped down and Tim Skipper takes over. The Bulldogs have eight starters back on offense including quarterback Mikey Keane who was outstanding as a freshman and they also have their top three running backs returning. The offensive line is loaded and this offense will not miss a beat. The defense lost over half of their starters but are strong in the back seven and bring in No. 1 defensive end recruit Korey Forman from USC. They open at Michigan and close at UCLA which are the only true nonconference tests and in the MWC, they avoid Boise St. but are at UNLV and Air Force.

UNLV Rebels 9-5 ~ 6-2 MWC ~ 10-2-0 ATS ~ 7-4-1 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 6

UNLV was one of the surprises of the conference last season as following a 35-7 loss at Michigan, the Rebels went on a 7-1 run before losing the regular season finale to San Jose St. It was good enough to get them to the MWC Conference Championship Game where they were blown out by Boise St. before losing to Kansas 49-36 in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl. Still, it was a 9-5 season which were the most wins since 1984 where they had won eight games once and seven games twice so it was no surprise head Barry Odom signed a five-year contract extension in April after his first season here. The offense was supposed to explode under Bobby Petrino but he bolted for Texas A&M before coaching a game and offensive coordinator Brennan Marion did a fantastic job, averaging 34.4 ppg. The Rebels lose quarterback Jayden Maiava to USC but Holy Cross transfer Matthew Sluka can thrive in this system. Their offensive line is stacked and their top two receivers that combined for 2,089 yards are both back. UNLV was not as strong defensively but it as their best unit in seasons and there is talent at all levels and should be better under defensive mind Odom. They are at Kansas and a game at Houston could be tricky to open the season and while they face Boise St. and Fresno St., both are at home.

Colorado St. Rams 5-7 ~ 3-5 MWC ~ 4-8-0 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 7

Colorado St. put together five straight winning seasons from 2013-2017 but now they have a string of six straight losing campaigns culminating with its 5-7 record last year. The Rams had a chance to make it to a bowl game but lost its season finale as a favorite at Hawaii. Four of the seven losses were by one possession so there was progress last season following back-to-back 3-9 campaigns and they are looking for the breakthrough. Head coach Jay Norvell has this team going in the right direction entering his third season after proven success at Nevada where he got out at the right time. The offense nearly doubled its output, going from 13.2 ppg in 2022 to 26.1 ppg in 2023 thanks to the top passing game in the MWC that finished No. 9 in the country led by all MWC quarterback Braydon Fowler-Nicolosi. His top target Tory Horton returns and while they lose their leading rusher, there was not much there anyway. The offensive line returns four of five starters. The defense regressed from 2022 but the Rams are athletic and will show improvement. Three of their top four tacklers that combined for 296 tackles are back and the secondary is loaded. A trip to Texas opens the season and they host rival Colorado and while they avoid Boise St. and UNLV, they have Air Force and Fresno St. on the road.

Air Force Falcons 9-4 ~ 5-3 MWC ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 3/Defense 4

Winning in Colorado Springs has become commonplace under head coach Troy Calhoun as Air Force has had only four losing seasons under his direction and last season looked like it could be something special. The Falcons rolled out to an 8-0 start but got blown out at home by 20 points against Army and they were never the same, losing their last four regular season games. They just fell short of their fourth straight non-COVID double-digit season but if everything goes right, they could start a new streak but that is a big if. The issue is inexperience as Air Force is the second least experienced team in the MWC and it brings back only six starters. Two of those are on offense and they happen to be receivers, the least needed position in this offense so it is a rebuild but the Falcons have had to replace five or fewer starters four times in the last six years and have been successful under offensive coordinator Mike Thiessen. They will find a way for a potent rushing attack. The defense will be fine in the secondary where three of their four returning starters reside and there is plenty of junior and senior experience up front. Nonconference games include Army and Navy as usual and a game at Baylor while in the MWC, they miss Boise St. and UNLV and get Fresno St. and Colorado St. at home.

Wyoming Cowboys 9-4 ~ 5-3 MWC ~ 7-4-1 ATS ~ 5-5-2 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 7

Wyoming head coach Craig Bohl retired at the end of last season after 10 seasons with the Cowboys where he compiled a 61-60 record and took them to a bowl game in six of the last seven non-COVID seasons. He went out strong with a 9-4 record with those nine victories the most in his tenure and now Jay Sawvel takes over after serving as the defensive coordinator under Bohl for the last four seasons. This is a strong program with a toughness on both sides so the transition should be seamless especially with a schedule that is on their side. Wyoming was below average on offense as they averaged only 327 ypg but it had a decent power rushing attack and they will stick to that style with new offensive coordinator Jay Johnson who arrives from Michigan St. so he knows about the style. Harrison Waylee returns after rushing for 947 yards last season and will be running behind an offensive line with four returning starters. The wild card will be quarterback Even Svoboda who has a big arm and can run. Under Sawvel, the defense was never great but decently consistent, allowing between 21.0 and 23.9 ppg and they have seven starters back. The Cowboys go to Arizona St., Washington St. and host BYU and in the MWC, they get Boise St. and Air Force at home and avoid Fresno St.

San Jose St. Spartans 7-6 ~ 6-2 MWC ~ 9-3-0 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 3/Defense 4

It was a tale of two seasons for San Jose St. last year as it got off to a 1-5 start with the lone win coming against Cal Poly of the FCS but then the Spartans found their footing and closed the regular season 6-0 to finish 6-2 in the conference and a three-way tie for first place. They did not make the MWC Championship Game because of some unknown tiebreaker and while they went on to lose against Coastal Carolina 24-14 in the Hawaii Bowl, it was some unplanned success. They enter this season as the least experienced team in the conference and one of the least experienced teams in the country so it will take some overachieving and new head coach Ken Niumatalolo comes in with a chip on his shoulder. San Jose St. averaged 31.8 ppg last season, its most since 2013, and there will be a regression with only three starters back and they lose an all MWC quarterback and their top four rushers along with four offensive linemen. The defense is not much better off with only four starters back after finishing No. 2 in the conference in defense. The linebacking corps will be the strength and need to be disruptive to make up for a weak secondary. Washington St., Oregon. St. and Stanford make up the nonconference slate and while they face all the top teams in the MWC, three of those are at home.

Utah St. Aggies 6-7 ~ 4-4 MWC ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 7

Utah St. ended last season on a 3-1 run, including a pair of double overtime wins, to become bowl eligible where it was ultimately blown out by Georgia St. 45-22 in the Idaho Potato Bowl but the Aggies had some positive momentum heading into 2024. Then came a late blow in July where the administration fired head coach Blake Anderson for cause after he had not complied with the reporting of sexual misconduct cases. Newly hired defensive coordinator Nate Dreiling will serve as interim head coach and not only does he has to take over the X and O aspects but he has to make sure his team is on board as this firing was not taken well by very many. 15 starters are back and the Aggies are the third most experienced team in the conference so on paper, they can be a sleeper contender as long as their heads are into it. They lost their quarterback but brought in Iowa transfer Spencer Petras who has a ton of experience. He will be throwing to the second best receiving corps and will be behind an experienced line. The defense could struggle as they lost three of their top four tacklers and need to stop the run where they allowed 213 ypg. They host Utah and are at USC and Washington St. while in the MWC, they avoid Fresno St. and Air Force and do have four conference home games.

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 5-8 ~ 3-5 MWC ~ 5-8-0 ATS ~ 6-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 7

Hawaii has made progress in the first two years under head coach Timmy Chang and the pieces are in place to get to a bowl game. The problem is that Hawaii plays two FCS teams so should they win those, they will need five other wins to get seven wins total to get to a bowl but it is more than possible. The Warriors have momentum coming into this year as they won three of their last four games and Chang took over the play calling late in the season. Whether he continues that is still unknown as he hired a new offensive coordinator in Dan Morrison who happened to coach Chang when he was the quarterback at Hawaii. The Warriors bring back eight starters on an offense that improved slightly from 2022 and has a chance to really explode this season. Quarterback Brayden Schager threw for 3,542 yards last season with 26 touchdowns but did toss 14 picks. He threw for 320 or more yards in half of his games but needs to be more consistent and he has his top six receivers back. Any resemblance of a running game will help. The defense improved as the season went on last year and still needs to get better with seven starters coming back. UCLA and Sam Houston are the other two nonconference games and in the MWC, they miss Air Force and get Boise St. and UNLV on the island.

San Diego St. Aztecs 4-8 ~ 2-6 MWC ~ 7-5-0 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 4

San Diego St. has been as consistent as they come as not counting the 2020 COVID season, the Aztecs had 12 consecutive winning seasons, including five double-digit winning campaigns, up until their 4-8 record last year. What made it worse was the fact they started out 2-0 but then the schedule caught up to them as they lost their next four games against teams that finished with eight or more wins and they could not recover. Head coach Brady Hoke retired after last season and Sean Lewis was hired after serving as the offensive coordinator at Colorado last season. He will shift the offense from a running style to a more Air Raid system as the Aztecs have not averaged 200 yards passing since 2019. Six starters are back on offense and San Diego St. has to break in a new quarterback which is not a bad thing with a new system and it will likely be Florida St. transfer A.J. Duffy. While they will be airing it out at a record speed, that sets up the running game and they brought in 1,000-yard rusher Marquez Cooper from Ball St., who also played under Lewis at Kent St. The defense will struggle namely because they will be on the field way too much. The schedule is not horrible as it is ranked No. 80 but there are too many roadblocks away from home to get enough wins but this is a team on the rise.

Nevada Wolf Pack 2-10 ~ 2-6 MWC ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 6

Nevada football has never been a thing as it has had only one double-digit winning season in the 37-year history of the program and it has reached eight wins only four times since 2006. While the Wolf Pack have never been really good, they have never been really bad either, that is up until the last two seasons where they went 2-10, the worst two-season stretch ever. There is not much talent or depth so it will be another tough season but they should be better. The offense has nowhere to go but up as Nevada averaged 17.3 ppg on 300 ypg and those are the fewest points it has averaged since 2000 when it put up the exact same amount. Quarterback Brendon Lewis was bad and will be pushed by Nebraska transfer Chubba Purdy and whoever wins the job will be throwing to a brand new set of receivers as the top six are gone. They bring in former 1,000-yard rusher Patrick Garwo from Boston College and it all will work around a young offensive line. The defense was not the worst ever but it was still bad as the Wolf Pack were No. 125 overall and No. 118 in scoring. They will be better with Choate here but still not very good. Nevada plays 13 games and the nonconference schedule is tough while it has to play the top five teams in the MWC so it is going to be another long season.

New Mexico Lobos 4-8 ~ 2-6 MWC ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 9-3-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 3/Defense 6

New Mexico has not had a winning season since 2016 and it will not break that streak this season but the Lobos did make a solid move with their head coach as they hired Bronco Mendenhall who had plenty of success at a similar type school in BYU. It has been so bad in Albuquerque that the four wins from last season were the most than the previous six seasons. New Mexico has been to four bowl games since 2006 and every one of those was at the New Mexico Bowl so their prize has been to not even be able leave home and Mendenhall will fix that eventually, just not now. Only three starters are back on offense which is not good considering they averaged 27.3 ppg, their most since 2016 and they more than doubled their output from 2022. Devon Dampier likely takes over at quarterback who is a duel threat and he gets two receivers and a tight end that are returning starters but that is it on offense. The Lobos lose a 1,229-yard running back and the entire offensive line. The defense was far from good enough to help the offense and with the offense taking a big step back, the defense does not have the talent to improve dramatically. They are at Arizona and at Auburn early and they miss Boise St. and UNLV in the MWC and have seven road games in total. Another rebu

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami Marlins Free Pick 8-21-24
https://topsportscappers.com

Matt Fargo Sports Free Pick Arizona Diamondback -1.5

All Packages purchased that are 30 Days or Less are GUARANTEED to show you a profit!

Matt Fargo Sports

  MLB   08/21   6:40 PM   Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami Marlins
  PICK: Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5
s is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS RL for our Wednesday Free Play. After getting swept in Tampa Bay, Arizona bounced back with a 9-6 win Monday and followed that up with a 3-1 win last night. They have won 22 of 30 games since the All Star Break and they are 32-13 over their last 45 games and remain one game behind the Padres in the National League Wild Card standings. They are just four games behind the Dodgers in the National League West as the offense remains one of the best in baseball as they lead the league in runs scored and are second behind the Dodgers in the National League in wOBA at .329. This is the auto fade Miami spot as the Marlins are averaging 3.7 rpg over its last 25 games and the offense has been bad all season as the Marlins are second to last in baseball with a .289 wOBA, .660 OPS and a .129 ISO. Going back to May 19, Miami has scored three runs or less in 45 of 78 games and this includes getting shut out nine times over this span. The Marlins facing a left-handed starter has been bad news as they are 9-34 while averaging 3.0 rpg with a .227 average, third worst in the league and a .632 OPS, second to last in baseball and of those 34 losses, 29 have been by two or more runs and by an average of 4.0 rpg. Jordan Montgomery has not been himself as he has allowed four runs or more seven times including six runs in four of those but only one of those has been on the road as he has struggled at Chase Field with a 7.71 ERA and 1.97 WHIP. His numbers on the road are far from spectacular but his ERA is 3.5 runs less at 4.26 and he has a respectable 1.24 WHIP. He does not strike anyone out as he initiates contact and has a 43.6% GB% which is No. 44 out of 123 starters that have tossed at least 80 innings. The Marlins put the ball on the ground more than any other team at 48.9% and it has the sixth lowest Hard Hit%. Roddery Munoz continues to struggle as in 15 starts, he has a 5.88 ERA and while in six of those he has allowed two runs or less, in the other nine outings, he has allowed 42 earned runs. Among 144 starting pitchers that have tossed at least 70 innings, only seven have a xFIP greater than 5.00 and Munoz is one of those as he is ranked No. 140 at 5.19. He has split time between Miami and Jacksonville in Triple-A and his numbers are very similar and one that really sticks out is his K-BB% where he posted a 7% ratio in the Minors and while with the Marlins, it is 8.3% which is No. 133 among those 144 pitchers. Play (901) Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 Runs

MLB 10-4 +$8,280 L10. Wednesday Triple Play 3-0 Sweep! Over the last 12 NFL seasons, Matt has profited in 10 of those with $72,010 in profits and there is no reason to slow down with the regular season nearly here!

All Packages purchased that are 30 Days or Less are GUARANTEED to show you a profit!


YESTERDAY'S LEADERS
Top Handicappers   Profit
Matt Fargo Sports   4-1   $3260.00


MLB - Capper   W/L   %   PROFIT
Marc Lawrence   5/2   71%   $1161.00
Matt Fargo Sports   4/1   80%   $3260.00

Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees Prediction 8-20-24
https://topsportscappers.com

Matt Fargo Sports Free Pick Cleveland Guardians +136

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Matt Fargo Sports

  MLB   08/20   7:05 PM   Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees
  PICK: Cleveland Guardians 136
This is a play on the CLEVELAND GUARDIANS for our Tuesday Free Play. Following a five-game winning streak, Cleveland took it on the chin in Milwaukee over the weekend as was swept by the Brewers in three games that could have eighter way as the Guardians were outscored 9-4. They have seen their lead come down to 2.5 games in the American League Central over both Minnesota and Kansas City and it does not get any easier here in this three-game set but this line is completely overinflated. Cleveland is a half-game behind the Yankees for the best record in baseball yet this line is saying the difference is much greater. The offense has been struggling but the Guardians have their sweet spot here. The Yankees are coming off a 3-3 roadtrip which was disappointing as they should have blown through the White Sox and Tigers but have maintained their lead in the American League East which is now a half-game over Baltimore. New York has been pretty average at home where it is five games over .500 compared to being 41-25 on the road yet come in as massive favorites behind a pitcher that is going the wrong way. The offense has been above average at Yankee Stadium but New York has a 3.91 ERA here which is No. 17 including No. 10 in the American League. Matthew Boyd is making his second start with the Guardians after recovering from Tommy John surgery and he will likely be limited again. But his recovery was great as he posted a 0.83 ERA in five rehab starts covering 21.2 innings while striking out 27 and his debut was great as we went 5.1 innings, allowing only one run on three hits and no walks in a very efficient 80-pitch outing. He might be stretched out a bit more depending how his command is again and there is the satisfaction knowing the best bullpen in baseball is behind him. Luis Gil came out of the gates on fire in his rookie season as he posted a 2.03 ERA through his first 14 starts but he has struggled since then. Since June 20, he has a 5.70 ERA over nine starts which is No. 98 among 109 starters that have gone at least 40 innings. His K% is down and his BB% is up and his k-BB% over this stretch is 12.7% which is No. 73 which has partially led to a 1.49 WHIP which is tied for No. 93. He faces a Cleveland offense that is tied for No. 9 in OPS against left-handed pitching and the Guardians are 26-9 on the season against left-handed starters. Play (959) Cleveland Guardians
 
MLB 8-3 +$7,130 L10. Tuesday Triple Play Sweep tonight! Over the last 12 NFL seasons, Matt has profited in 10 of those with $72,010 in profits and there is no reason to slow down with the regular season nearly here!

All Packages purchased that are 30 Days or Less are GUARANTEED to show you a profit!


YESTERDAY'S LEADERS
Top Handicappers   Profit
Matt Fargo Sports   $1070.00 
Mikhail Kivowitz   $700.00


MLB - Capper   W/L   %   PROFIT
Marc Lawrence   5/2   71%   $1161.00
Matt Fargo Sports   8/3   73%   $7100.00

Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros Pick 8-19-24
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Matt Fargo Sports Free Pick Houston Astros -118

All Packages purchased that are 30 Days or Less are GUARANTEED to show you a profit!

  MLB   08/19   8:10 PM   Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros
  PICK: Houston Astros -118
s is a play on the HOUSTON ASTROS for our Monday Free Play. The Astros are coming off a series win over the White Sox, which is not saying much but going back, they are 10-1 over their last 11 games and have taken a four-game lead in the American League West over Seattle. Since opening the season 7-19, Houston is 60-37 which is the best record in baseball by three games over the Twins and both sides have been exceptional. This includes a 30-18 record at home and the Astros are getting solid value tonight. Boston is coming off a series split with the Orioles and it is just 4-7 over its last 11 games which has put the Red Sox 3.5 behind the Royals in the American League Wild Card standings. They have been better on the road than at home which is playing into this number as is the top line numbers from the starting pitchers but they are skewed and the two are going in complete opposite directions. Tanner Houck has a 3.01 ERA and 1.15 WHIP but he is pitching to a 4.00 xERA and we are seeing some of that regression. In eight starts since June 29, he has a 4.98 ERA and his 4.92 xFIP is No. 68 among 72 qualified starters over this stretch. One glaring issue has been his strikeout and walk rates as he has a 13.3% K% and am 11.2% BB% which are No. 70 and No. 72 respectively putting his 2% K-BB% dead last over this stretch. Over the recent 10-1 run, the Astros lead baseball with a 136 wRC+ while sitting No. 8 in K% and No. 12 in BB%. Yusei Kikuchi has been a solid addition to the Houston rotation since he was acquired from Toronto as he has posted a 2.70 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in three start. His overall ERA is nearly a run and a half higher than Houck but his xERA is right in line at 4.03 and his xFIP of 3.33 is tied for No. 10 out of 63 qualified starters. Additionally, he is tied for No. 8 in K-BB% at 21% is this does not bode well for a Boston offense that has the highest K% in all of baseball against left-handed pitching. Play (904) Houston Astros

MLB 7-3 +$5,980 L10. American League Game of the Year! Over the last 12 NFL seasons, Matt has profited in 10 of those with $72,010 in profits and there is no reason to slow down with the regular season nearly here!

All Packages purchased that are 30 Days or Less are GUARANTEED to show you a profit!


YESTERDAY'S LEADERS
Top Handicappers   Profit
Damian Sosh   $1000.00 
Anlyedge   $870.00 
James Patrick Sports   $300.00 
Marc Lawrence   $300.00


MLB - Capper   W/L   %   PROFIT
Marc Lawrence   5/1   83%   $1461.00
Matt Fargo Sports   7/3   70%   $6030.00
TKwins (Tommy King)   7/3   70%   $3360.00

CAPPERS HOT STREAKS
OVERALL - Capper   W/L   PROFIT
Marc Lawrence   5-2   $843.00

2024 Big 12 Conference Preview
By Matt Fargo
https://topsportscappers.com/index.php

Regular Season Win Totals and Big 12 Championship Odds (via DraftKings)

Kansas State: 9.5 Over +125 Under -150/+380 Big 12 Winner
Utah: 9.5 Over -145 Under +125/+320 Big 12 Winner
Kansas: 8 Over -135 Under +115/+950 Big 12 Winner
Arizona: 7.5 Over -115 Under -105/+1,100 Big 12 Winner
Iowa State: 7.5 Over -120 Under +100/+950 Big 12 Winner
Oklahoma State: 8 Over -130 Under +110/+750 Big 12 Winner
TCU: 7.5 Over +125 Under -150/+1,800 Big 12 Winner
Texas Tech: 7.5 Over -105 Under -115/+1,400 Big 12 Winner
UCF: 7.5 Over -125 Under +105/+900 Big 12 Winner
West Virginia: 6.5 Over -130 Under +110/+1,800 Big 12 Winner
Baylor: 5.5 Over +100 Under -120/+6,000 Big 12 Winner
Cincinnati: 5 Over -160 Under +135/+8,000 Big 12 Winner
Colorado: 5.5 Over -135 Under +115/+2,800 Big 12 Winner
Arizona State: 4.5 Over +140 Under -170/+10,000 Big 12 Winner
BYU: 4.5 Over +105 Under -125/+12,000 Big 12 Winner
Houston: 3.5 Over -160 Under +135/+11,000 Big 12 Winner

Coaching Changes

Arizona: Jedd Fisch Out ~ Brent Brennen In
Houston: Dana Holgorsen Out ~ Willie Fritz In

Kansas State Wildcats 9-4 ~ 6-3 Big 12 ~ 7-4-1 ATS ~ 7-5-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 8

Kansas St. is coming off another solid season as it went 9-4 and it could have been even better. All four losses were by one possession including two by three points, one against Texas in overtime. We say another solid season because the Wildcats have won eight or more games 10 times over the past 13 seasons and that includes a four-win COVID season. Kansas St. is loaded again on both sides of the ball and has a legitimate shot at the Big 12 Championship Game. Avery Johnson takes over at quarterback for Will Howard, who left for Ohio St., and he is one of the most significant recruits the Wildcats have landed in a long time. He has the three top receivers back in Jadon Jackson, Jayce Brown and Keagan Johnson and one of the top running back in the conference in DJ Giddens who rushed for 1,226 yards last season. Defensively, Kansas St. was right on par with the numbers from 2022 and 2023 and this season they should improve as they have six players that could legitimately be on the All-Big 12 teams. Nothing will be easy in this conference but the Wildcats schedule is not bad. They actually play 10 conference teams but Arizona will not count. They only face one team coming off a bye, Colorado, and they are coming off a bye as well to make it a wash.

Utah Utes 8-5 ~ 5-4 Pac 12 ~ 6-5-1 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 9

Injuries took their toll on the Utes last season right from the start and while the 8-5 season was not what they envisioned, it was still something to be proud of and they gained experience from it. Utah is once again picked to finish at or near the top of the conference but this time it is the Big 12 yet they will still be squaring off against some familiar faces and barring any repeat injuries, anything short of the Big 12 Championship Game will be a disappointment. Neither quarterback Cam Rising nor his leading target tight end Brant Kuithe saw the field last season and the offense suffered as they dropped 15.4 ppg and nearly 120 ypg from their 2023 averages but both are back to full health. Utah brought in USC/Arizona transfer Dorian Singer (1,683 yards in 27 games) and while the offensive line lost three starters, they are always deep and experienced. Utah did not miss a beat on defense which has been the case every year for a while as it finished No. 14 overall and No. 20 in points allowed. The Utes bring back nine starters, needing to replace just one linebacker and one corner so an even better defense could surface this season. The Utes do not leave the state for any of its nonconference games with the only road game at Utah St. and in the Big 12, they miss Kansas and Kansas St.

Kansas Jayhawks 9-4 ~ 5-4 Big 12 ~ 7-5-0 ATS ~ 6-5-1 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 6

The Jayhawks have taken one of the biggest steps in all of college football over the last couple seasons as they have come close to knocking on the door since head coach Lance Leipold took over the program in 2021 and made it his own. Kansas has won eight Big 12 Conference games the last two seasons after winning eight conference games in the previous 13 seasons combined. It will be an interesting year for the Jayhawks as they have a lot of obstacles to get around but if they can stay healthy, they have the potential to play with anyone in this conference. Quarterback Jalon Daniels was on pace for a monster season and was a sneaky Heisman Trophy candidate but he ended up hurting his back after three games and never came back, electing to take a redshirt. Jason Bean was a solid backup but the offense was not as dynamic as it was with Daniels. Six players had at least 172 yards receiving last season and five of those are back that totaled 1,938 yards while leading rusher Devin Neal is back after running for 1,209 yards and 15 touchdowns. The Big 12 schedule is fairly tame as they miss four of the other top seven teams but they will be playing all of their home games off campus because of renovations taking place at Memorial Stadium which is a big disadvantage.

Arizona Wildcats 10-3 ~ 7-2 Pac 12 ~ 10-2-0 ATS ~ 4-8-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 7

Arizona was the big surprise in the Pac 12 Conference last season as many publications and polls had the Wildcats finishing near the bottom of the league but after a 3-3 start with two of those losses in overtime, they won their final seven games to close the season. While Arizona would have contended in its old conference, it will be able to contend in its new conference as well. Last season was its first 10-win campaign in a decade and just its second since 1998 so this once proud and dominant program has been stuck in mediocrity for some time. Head coach Jedd Fisch bolted for Washington but left the team in great shape for Brent Brennen who comes over from San Jose St. The offense finished No. 18 overall and No. 20 in scoring behind quarterback Noah Fifita so the offense is again in great hands. Leading receiver Tetairoa McMillan, who had 1,402 yards is back but the next three wideouts are gone so replacements are needed. Two transfer running backs from the MWC who averaged over a combined 2,000 yards take over for Jonah Coleman. The defense was a top 40 unit and is loaded outside from the line which could use help. The Wildcats have five Big 12 home games and while they have Utah on the road, the other three are manageable so they will be in the mix.

Iowa State Cyclones 7-6 ~ 6-3 Big 12 ~ 7-5-0 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 10/Defense 9

After a rough start where the Cyclones opened 2-3, they closed the season 5-2 before losing in the Liberty Bowl 36-26 to Memphis so all-in-all, it was a quality year as they shook off their 4-8 season in 2022. Head coach Matt Campbell has put together six winning seasons in his eight years in Ames and this season has the potential to be the best one yet should it stay healthy because of the back loaded slate. The Cyclones have 19 starters back and are the third most experienced team in the country, trailing only Oklahoma St. and Virginia Tech. After going 21-5 at home from 2018-2021, they went just 6-7 the last two seasons so getting that home mojo back is essential. The only starter lost on offense is at tight end but they are deep at that position. Quarterback Rocco Becht was excellent as a freshman and should only get better. Not only does Iowa St. bring back nine starters on defense, they are all either juniors or seniors so the experience is even greater with the veteran presence. The Cyclones were second in the conference in defense, trailing CFP participant Texas. Do not be surprised with a 6-0 start with a game at Iowa being the real difficult test but then it really toughens up with five bowl teams from last season, plus an improved Cincinnati team and it closes with Utah and Kansas St.

Oklahoma State Cowboys 10-4 ~ 7-2 Big 12 ~ 7-5-0 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 10/Defense 9

With nine teams stamped with 7.5 or higher win totals, this is a top heavy Big 12 Conference that can turn into a wide open battle and the Cowboys will certainly be a player with loads of talent and experience. Their 10 wins were the seventh time in the last 13 seasons with double-digit victories so this is a program that has been consistently above average under head coach Mike Gundy, who has only one losing season, his first one in Stillwater, in his 19 years here. Oklahoma St. is the most experienced team in the country after coming in as one of the most inexperienced last season. This offense is loaded with 10 starters back behind quarterback Alan Bowman and he cannot feel more comfortable. He has All-American and the 2023 leading rusher in the country Ollie Gorgon II behind him, five seniors on the offense line that is second in the country in combined starts with 214 and a pair of receivers that combined for 164 catches and 1,886 yards. Oklahoma St. was not good on defense as it as No. 124 overall and No. 92 in points allowed with six returning starters, right in line with 2022 when it had four starters back but now nine are back. They open the Big 12 with games against Utah and Kansas St. so we will see early on what they are made of and they avoid Kansas and Arizona.

TCU Horned Frogs 5-7 ~ 3-6 Big 12 ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 4-8-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 9

After making the College Football Playoff in 2022, it was an expected down season in 2023 as the Horned Frogs had only 10 starters back, including just three on offense, and a 1-5 midseason run did them in. It was only the sixth losing season since 1997 as head coach Gary Patterson created a dynasty with 11 double-digit win seasons and six final Top 10 rankings. He left in 2021 after four mediocre campaigns and Sonny Dykes was one win away from a National Championship in his first season. TCU should be better off with a much more experienced team and after nearly the same averages on defense in 2023 with seven starters back as it had in 2022, the Horned Frogs bring back nine starters this season. Additionally, they hired former Boise St. head coach Andy Avalos to serve as defensive coordinator. Quarterback John Hoover was pretty solid as a freshman but there is a lot of room for improvement and losing three starters along the offensive line will not help. 1,272-yard rusher Emani Bailey is gone so someone has to step up but Hoover gets his two top receivers back. The conference schedule is a brutal one as they do avoid Kansas St. but have games at Kansas and Utah to go along with home games against Texas Tech, Arizona, and Oklahoma St.

Texas Tech Red Raiders 7-6 ~ 5-4 Big 12 ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 5

It was a third straight winning season for Texas Tech, including its third straight bowl win but as has been the case for the last 14 years, it was nothing special. The Red Raiders defeated only one team with a winning record, Kansas, and they have not surpassed eight victories over that 14-year stretch. To their credit, or to at least give them a little justification, they did play nine teams that went to bowl games and five of their six losses were against teams that finished with nine or more wins but to become a team to compete for championships, some of those losses need to become wins. It all starts with the offense that finished No. 65 overall last season with 387.1 ypg, the first time since 2000 that it tallied fewer than 400 ypg. Quarterback Behren Morton was hurt on and off and is fully healthy but there will be a mostly new receiving corps in place so it may take time. They will again depend on Tahj Brooks who rushed for 1,538 yards behind a strong offensive line. The defense was not great but limited opponents to under 400 yards, the first time since 2012 that has happened. They avoid Utah and Kansas St. but the three toughest conference games against Arizona, Iowa St. and Oklahoma St. are all on the road so taking the first five winnable games is important.

UCF Knights 6-7 ~ 3-6 Big 12 ~ 5-6-1 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 8

The first season in the Big 12 did not go well for UCF as it went 3-0 in its nonconference games but opened conference action with five straight losses. The Knights did rally to win three of their last four games to become bowl eligible but lost to Georgia Tech 30-17 in the Gasparilla Bowl. It easily could have been a better season as they were on the plus side in yardage differential in Big 12 games despite being 3-6 as three of the losses were by a combined four points. The offense was one of the best in the country as UCF finished No. 3 with 527.7 ypg and this was with quarterbacks John Rhys Plumlee and Timmy McClain splitting time because of injuries. Taking over will be KJ Jefferson who comes in from Arkansas after starting 38 games for the Razorbacks and his duel threat ability will fit well. They lose their top receiver but two starters are back and UCF will rely on running back RJ Harvey who rushed for 1,476 yards but the offensive line brings back only 58 starts, second fewest in the conference. Defensively, the Knights could not stop the run as they were fifth worst in the country has to improve in front of an elite secondary. The Knights miss Kansas, Kansas St. and Oklahoma St. and get Utah and Arizona at home so the Big 12 schedule is on their side, they just have to execute.

West Virginia Mountaineers 9-4 ~ 6-3 Big 12 ~ 7-5-0 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 5

West Virginia was picked to finish bottom three or four in the Big 12 Conference last season with head coach Neal Brown firmly on the hot seat. But the Mountaineers did not listen to the naysayers as they put together their first nine-win season since 2016 when they won 10 games and they look to build upon that. They got blown out in the opener against Penn St. before reeling off four straight wins prior to a brutal last second loss to Houston and they closed the season with five wins in their last six games, the only loss coming against Oklahoma. The job is safe for Brown barring a complete implosion and that should not happen with this offense which finished No. 27 overall with 434.6 ypg, the most since 2017. Most of the pieces are back, led by quarterback Garrett Greene, while the top three running backs and four of the top five receivers return. Defensively, the numbers were not great but West Virginia led the Big 12 in sacks and the secondary was another strength. Their leading tackler is gone and the secondary needs to replace three of four starters but the Mountaineers used the transfer portal to reload and should be just fine. They open with Penn St. again but this time at home while the conference schedule is a bear as they play all of the top teams expect for Utah.

Baylor Bears 3-9 ~ 2-7 Big 12 ~ 3-8-1 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 10/Defense 9

The Bears have been one of the most inconsistent teams in the country over the last few years and it has been extreme. They went from three straight 10-win seasons from 2013-2015 to one win in 2017. Baylor then went back up to 11 wins in 2019 and 12 wins in 2021 only to have a losing season in 2022 and then fell back further to only three wins last season. Since 2009, Baylor has had four or fewer wins four times and the previous three follow up years, it came back with a winning season so 2024 is ready for another bounce back season and it looks possible. Baylor is the fourth most experienced team in the Big 12 Conference and the highest ranking of all teams that did not make a bowl games last season. Baylor struggled on offense last season, finishing No. 72 but the only replacement needs to be made at tight end so it should improve considerably. Six of nine losses last year were by double digits as the defense imploded when the offense was average but nine starters are back so there should be improvement on this side of the ball as well. Baylor misses Arizona and Kansas St. and the game against Utah counts as a nonconference game and while the rest of the Big 12 slate is no cakewalk, the Bears do get Oklahoma St. and Kansas at home.

Cincinnati Bearcats 3-9 ~ 1-8 Big 12 ~ 4-8-0 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 7

The Bearcats were one of the three teams that came over from the AAC and all three struggled in their new conference while Cincinnati was the most likely for that to happen. They had only eight starters coming back along with a new head coach and the uptick in strength of schedule led to their fewest wins overall since 1999. Now in the second year in the system of head coach Scott Satterfield while bringing back close to double the number of returning starters, we should see some positive progression. Cincinnati was very good offensively, averaging 426.1 ypg which was No. 34 but it could not get into the endzone as it was just No. 84 in scoring. Indiana transfer quarterback Brendan Sorsby comes into a good situation with the top rusher and receiver back along with all five starters on the offensive line returning. Averaging 24.1 ppg will not get it done as turnovers killed some good ball movement last season so mistakes have to come down. The defense allowed its most yards and most points since 2017 which happened to be its last losing season and Cincinnati hit the transfer portal hard along all three levels to improve their unit as a whole. The Bearcats have a good conference slate by avoiding Utah, Arizona, Oklahoma St. and Kansas but the tougher games are on the road.

Colorado Buffaloes 4-8 ~ 1-8 Pac 12 ~ 7-4-1 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 8

The Buffaloes were the story of college football heading into last season whether looking for the good or the bad and we were treated to both. Colorado opened the season 3-0 and jumped into the AP Poll at No. 18 but then things went south quickly. The Buffaloes were blown out by Oregon by 37 points which started a 1-8 run to end the season, the lone victory against 3-9 Arizona St. There were certain factors compounding the skid including injuries and a defense that could not stop anyone. Head coach Deion Sanders make his mark, which was his goal, and his coaching style from the go was not for everyone as after an unprecedented 53 transfers coming in last season, 40 players took off at the end of the year. The Buffaloes have one of the best playmakers in quarterback Shedeur Sanders who led the No. 15 ranked passing offense and also have the dynamic two-way player Travis Hunter, part of eight starters but the Buffaloes were dead last in rushing and they need to find some balance. Eight starters are back on the other side to improve the defense that finished No. 129 overall and No. 124 in scoring. The good news from the Colorado schedule is that it gets Baylor and Cincinnati. The bad news is that the other seven conference games are against teams with win totals of 7.5 or higher.

Arizona State Sun Devils 3-9 ~ 2-7 Pac 12 ~ 5-6-1 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 4

Last season was chalked up as a likely rebuilding season for Arizona St. under first year head coach Kenny Dillingham and that is what it turned into. It was the second straight 3-9 season for the Sun Devils following four straight winning campaigns, not counting the COVID season, and this was the first time they finished with fewer than four wins in consecutive seasons since 1946 so to say this can be considered rock bottom would not be false. Arizona St. was the only Pac 12 team that lost to Colorado but five of their losses were to teams ranked No. 18 or higher and they did have a stretch of three straight losses by one possession so they were not the worst team around. Still, it will be tough to vastly improve this season with just 10 starters back and facing the No. 3 toughest schedule in the country. There will be a quarterback battle between incumbent Trenton Bourguet and Michigan St. transfer Sam Leavitt and they have to replace their top two receivers so they will rely on leading rusher Cameron Skattebo early on. The defense was not much better but was skewed by three of the last four games where they allowed 55, 49 and 59 points when they were already toast. The nonconference slate is doable but 0-3 in still out there while the Sun Devils face five of the top six teams in the Big 12.

BYU Cougars 5-7 ~ 2-7 Big 12 ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 7-5-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 6

Life as an Independent treated BYU well as it could formulate its own schedule and in 12 seasons, it came away with a winning campaign in 11 of those and that was after five straight winning seasons in the MWC. So last season was one of two losing slates since 2005 as the Big 12 showed its teeth and the conference will be just as good if not better this season. The Cougars did have major injury issues midway through the season which attributed to their 0-5 finish so they are starting fresh with a good amount of experience coming back. Quarterback Kedon Slovis brought talent and experience but he struggled through eight games and missed the final four games due to arm injuries. The Cougars brought in Gerry Bohanon, who made 19 starts at Baylor and USF and they have six of their top seven receivers back as well as their leading rusher and it ultimately comes down to the offensive line to make a bigger push. The defense was good the first two games but they did hardly anything good after that, finishing No. 108 overall and No. 99 in points allowed. Injuries crushed the secondary and they are now healthy and the front seven has three real playmakers. The schedule does them no favors as they face five of the top six teams in the Big 12 but BYU does get four of those at home.

Houston Cougars 4-8 ~ 2-7 Big 12 ~ 5-6-1 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 5

It has been a revolving door on the Houston sideline, whether it be a voluntary departure or a forced one, as the Cougars are now on their eighth head coach since 2000 as they parted ways with Dana Holgorsen following a 4-8 season and brought in Willie Fritz who led Tulane to a 23-4 record including a split in the two ACC Championship Games. He definitely has his work cut out for him as the Cougars were all over the place, losing games they could have won, getting blown out in others and winning three games by a combined six points. The offense showed flashes but it was too inconsistent and there were too many mistakes. Quarterback Donovan Smith threw for 2,801 yards and 22 touchdowns while he ran for 428 yards and six scores but he threw 13 interceptions and a new system should do him good. He has two solid veteran receivers returning along with leading rusher Parker Jenkins but the offensive line needs work. Defensively, Houston ranked No. 101 or worse in scoring defense, rushing defense, passing defense and overall defense, its worst total output in five years. Only five starters are back on this side as well with the transfer portal needing a big impact. Houston is another team facing five of the top six teams in the Big 12, avoiding only Oklahoma St.