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So I'm thinking either a 20 point buy bump or another 580 retest in the next 2 hours? Which way? I lean bump, but it's hard to say.
The 580 seems bloody obvious. We are supported by a breeze of thin air as I type That's why I lean for a buy bump. The retest looks too obvious. I'm thinking a pull down halfway to 580 and then a small rocket up to 598 to set up a 600 skirmish. |
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So I'm thinking either a 20 point buy bump or another 580 retest in the next 2 hours? Which way? I lean bump, but it's hard to say.
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Finex is going to 555 within the next hour. Lot off support there on the order-book, but someone could pull the rug.
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Everyone stop panicking. This is following what I said earlier today. We are past the second horizontal, but it still could hold which means we will be following a triangle to a point before a crash or a moonshot. But what I think will happen is 560 will break and then we will rally around 540 in keeping with the slight downward trend from June first. If there isn't a rally there then or 540 won't hold, then the long term trend should keep it above 515. If that fails. We are in for a ride and I expect some crazy action. http://imageshack.com/a/img536/8384/OyNafd.pngSaying 'don't panic' then predicting a possible 515 or worse, is actually infuriating - apologies - but I am personally hoping the 550s is as bad as it gets! But 515 is the long term trend bottom. After that it's a climb back to 630-40. I expect a spring bounce. But if 515 fails all hell will break loose and anything is game at that point. Basically don't panic until you see 520, and then don't loose your shit until we hit 510. I really don't know which long term charts you are using, but my first really important long term Trendline is a lot lot lower. So we both can hope that your Trendline is stable. To not to terrify, if your Trendline got broken you really should search on lower levels. I think a lot of people here are getting shaken because they have no plan B(earish) and to high expectations. Long term bottom channel trendline (up slope) is 515. There are horizontal support pockets below that. But they are in the 400's and 300's. I don't see it getting that bad. But I'm ready if it does. |
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First we're going to the negative numbers, then the complex ones by October.
I just put in a stop at 547i |
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Everyone stop panicking. This is following what I said earlier today. We are past the second horizontal, but it still could hold which means we will be following a triangle to a point before a crash or a moonshot. But what I think will happen is 560 will break and then we will rally around 540 in keeping with the slight downward trend from June first. If there isn't a rally there then or 540 won't hold, then the long term trend should keep it above 515. If that fails. We are in for a ride and I expect some crazy action. http://imageshack.com/a/img536/8384/OyNafd.pngSaying 'don't panic' then predicting a possible 515 or worse, is actually infuriating - apologies - but I am personally hoping the 550s is as bad as it gets! But 515 is the long term trend bottom. After that it's a climb back to 630-40. I expect a spring bounce. But if 515 fails all hell will break loose and anything is game at that point. Basically don't panic until you see 520, and then don't loose your shit until we hit 510. |
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Everyone stop panicking. This is following what I said earlier today. We are past the second horizontal, but it still could hold which means we will be following a triangle to a point before a crash or a moonshot. But what I think will happen is 560 will break and then we will rally around 540 in keeping with the slight downward trend from June first. If there isn't a rally there then or 540 won't hold, then the long term trend should keep it above 515. If that fails. We are in for a ride and I expect some crazy action. http://imageshack.com/a/img536/8384/OyNafd.png |
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Shorting in this market on margin =  How so? Just short where you see resistance and buy when you see support. Pattern over the last 2 weeks has followed TA to a tee. Yeah I have been looking at the charts and sp/res lines... I had a good idea of where they have been for a while... I guess if you are strict and have a good enough strategy in terms of stop loss and bank management , and you call it right at least 55% of the time, then using borrowed money to short the BTC market can be a good idea... Day trading is risky (without even considering the counterpary risk element) as it is, risker on margin, and risker still in a market like the BTC market, if you have got good risk management and trading/banking strategy then the risk is more quantified and if that suits your risk profile and you are happy with it and you can achieve consistent results, then hey- who am I to say otherwise... though tight stop loss can give you control over your exposure, you are also more likely to fall foul of the volatility and stop hunters too with a shallow stop... so if you are looking to catch a local top, but think it is going up medium-longer term in my view it is risky... if you are a full on bear then I can see how it would be something one would consider.. unless as stated you are in full control of your shit and you are trading the bounces, all good if you have got the strategy and accept the risk of being hunted or shaken out of your trade and can accept the losses. The trick is not being greedy. Take profits early and don't panic. If you push it to the line you will get burned. If you never push it all the way to the line you may be late on the moonshot, but you have been making money the whole time people were waiting for the moonshot. |
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Shorting in this market on margin = How so? Just short where you see resistance and buy when you see support. Pattern over the last 2 weeks has followed TA to a tee. |
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And there goes my stop loss buy on the short. Time to wait and see what happens.
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I'm just a newbie, but I've been watching this forum for bit and have been watching the emotional swings on an hourly basis and just wanted to put something out there. Now people may laugh at technical analysis as it applies to bitcoin, but I think it works when there is little mega news like there has been the past month or so. If you look at Finex (since they are one of the big volume drivers lately) from June 2nd to July 1st and draw the top resistance line (674 and 654), and then use June 13 to the 24th to draw your bottom channel line (573 and 567) you will se the short term down trend we are on. Draw a horizontal line on June 24th and that will show you the 566 resistance line. If 566 holds we are following a descending triangle and it will bounce between the top resistance slope sline and the horizontal line at 566. If it breaks 566 then I would expect support to rally around 543. Now while I'm currently in a short from 630, I am long on bitcoin in general. Watch for the chart to break one or both of these patterns over the next few days or weeks, hopefully it will break one of the resistance lines and we can go long again.
Wow...good post..i agree with your analysis. This downtrend is purely technical..it is the final action after a period of lengthy consolidation rather than the start of a new bear market..it has nothing to do with bitcoin fundamentals..a break down to $540 would be expected now to test support.i do not believe the bottom is in yet as we have not had enough volume of support. If you are hodling - then i would advise taking a break from the charts - nothing has changed in the long term for bitcoin and its bullish. if you do want to put yourself thru the stress of constant price watching - then learn some TA to help give you a clearer picture of the market. The only thing that bothers me is that we've basically tested support at $572 about 5 times now. And it was holding. Today's mini-crash was the first time we went back into the $560s again. Wouldn't it be a bad thing to start all over again with the next support? And hell, maybe $572 then becomes the resistance   Look back at the last support line 578ish. There are 3-5 day skirmishs at that level until we broke to 575. You'll most likely see that at 573 and then again at 566 before heading south and rallying at 540ish. I'm taking profit in the 560's then buying if we can stay above 540ish. Else more charting. |
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There appeared to be no evidence of Fowl play involved.
But Owl let you know if I hear anything more.
Wow *claps hands* Well played, I gotta say  Oh and FYI.. don't do a reverse image search of his avatar, there are even more horrifying creatures awaiting you! Well you know me..... I like to have a crow. I did but my companies fire wall blocks picture share sites, so I can't share it. There isn't any upload functionality here is there? Not as far as I can Teal anybirdy else know? Go to https://coinstackr.com/ and use there interactive chart tool to draw the lines on the Finex chart I laid out. It looks to be following this pattern to a tee as the last two support horizontals were 566 and 573. Today we bounces from 566 and it's been holding steady at 573. I have stop loss on my short set at 576 and a take profit set at 567. I wish I would have jumped online 15 minutes earlier and I would have already taken profit at 567. |
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There appeared to be no evidence of Fowl play involved.
But Owl let you know if I hear anything more.
Wow *claps hands* Well played, I gotta say Oh and FYI.. don't do a reverse image search of his avatar, there are even more horrifying creatures awaiting you! Well you know me..... I like to have a crow. I did but my companies fire wall blocks picture share sites, so I can't share it. There isn't any upload functionality here is there? |
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I'm just a newbie, but I've been watching this forum for bit and have been watching the emotional swings on an hourly basis and just wanted to put something out there. Now people may laugh at technical analysis as it applies to bitcoin, but I think it works when there is little mega news like there has been the past month or so. If you look at Finex (since they are one of the big volume drivers lately) from June 2nd to July 1st and draw the top resistance line (674 and 654), and then use June 13 to the 24th to draw your bottom channel line (573 and 567) you will se the short term down trend we are on. Draw a horizontal line on June 24th and that will show you the 566 resistance line. If 566 holds we are following a descending triangle and it will bounce between the top resistance slope sline and the horizontal line at 566. If it breaks 566 then I would expect support to rally around 543. Now while I'm currently in a short from 630, I am long on bitcoin in general. Watch for the chart to break one or both of these patterns over the next few days or weeks, hopefully it will break one of the resistance lines and we can go long again.
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