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So I did some research to see what our competition does differently. I think Dooglas has gone too far trying to make just-dice have the most liberal parameters to the point it is not sustainable for investors.
Primedice: 1% edge, Max payout 3 BTC (at 2X, goes up to 5 BTC at longer odds such as 10X)
Coinroll: 1% edge, Max payout 5 BTC (per the faq)
Satoshidice: 1.9% edge, Max payout variable (someone told me it increases the longer the bet odds similar to primedice)
Just-Dive: 1% Edge, Max Payout 1% Bank Roll (currently Max Payout just under 300 BTC)
Seems with normal betting patterns, investors make a small profit over time. One day 2 BTC up the next 1 BTC down. However, when a whale comes in with a huge balance of his own (such as celeste ID # 31791) then with a consistent system, seems to be able to eventually win most of the time. Celeste is smart, he walks away once he is ahead enough. Today came from 800 BTC down to 300 BTC up and then stopped betting. His bankroll seems to be close to half the size of the invested bank roll.
If celeste (who used a couple other aliases) just won occasionally, I would chalk it to normal variance. However, it really is consistent and the small profits of 1 BTC/day on average is wiped away in a short time when this whale visits us. I do not blame the whale, I do not think they are cheating as in having the server seed (though if you watch him play, he does seem to rage bet at the right times always). I think our parameters are not well chosen and investors will often lose to a whale.
Looking at our competitors, I would say raising the edge would be a mistake since primedice offers a similar interface and edge matters most to gamblers. However, with the other competitors who have a 1% edge offering a max profit per bet of 3 BTC and 5 BTC respectively, our max profit per bet of currently 270 BTC is a couple of orders of magnitude larger.
My personal preference is to keep the 1% edge and bring the max profit down a lot but still keep it significantly bigger than our competitors. If we broughtt it down to 0.2 of the bank roll, that would still be 54 BTC per roll - over 10 Xs our nearest competitor. We will be more consistently profitable and the whales will keep company since we will continue to be much better than our competitors. As it stands right now, Just-Dice is great for players (especially ones with huge balances) but not a good deal for its investors. I think with some small tweaks it can continue to be the most popular dice game and be a good investment as well.
I am not looking for +/- 10% changes in my investment on a daily basis, that level of volatility is no different than just gambling ourselves. I think I and most other larger investors would be fine with +/- 1% changes. I really hope some changes are made, since the investor pool will eventually start shrinking if these losses keep adding up.
Primedice: 1% edge, Max payout 3 BTC (at 2X, goes up to 5 BTC at longer odds such as 10X)
Coinroll: 1% edge, Max payout 5 BTC (per the faq)
Satoshidice: 1.9% edge, Max payout variable (someone told me it increases the longer the bet odds similar to primedice)
Just-Dive: 1% Edge, Max Payout 1% Bank Roll (currently Max Payout just under 300 BTC)
Seems with normal betting patterns, investors make a small profit over time. One day 2 BTC up the next 1 BTC down. However, when a whale comes in with a huge balance of his own (such as celeste ID # 31791) then with a consistent system, seems to be able to eventually win most of the time. Celeste is smart, he walks away once he is ahead enough. Today came from 800 BTC down to 300 BTC up and then stopped betting. His bankroll seems to be close to half the size of the invested bank roll.
If celeste (who used a couple other aliases) just won occasionally, I would chalk it to normal variance. However, it really is consistent and the small profits of 1 BTC/day on average is wiped away in a short time when this whale visits us. I do not blame the whale, I do not think they are cheating as in having the server seed (though if you watch him play, he does seem to rage bet at the right times always). I think our parameters are not well chosen and investors will often lose to a whale.
Looking at our competitors, I would say raising the edge would be a mistake since primedice offers a similar interface and edge matters most to gamblers. However, with the other competitors who have a 1% edge offering a max profit per bet of 3 BTC and 5 BTC respectively, our max profit per bet of currently 270 BTC is a couple of orders of magnitude larger.
My personal preference is to keep the 1% edge and bring the max profit down a lot but still keep it significantly bigger than our competitors. If we broughtt it down to 0.2 of the bank roll, that would still be 54 BTC per roll - over 10 Xs our nearest competitor. We will be more consistently profitable and the whales will keep company since we will continue to be much better than our competitors. As it stands right now, Just-Dice is great for players (especially ones with huge balances) but not a good deal for its investors. I think with some small tweaks it can continue to be the most popular dice game and be a good investment as well.
I am not looking for +/- 10% changes in my investment on a daily basis, that level of volatility is no different than just gambling ourselves. I think I and most other larger investors would be fine with +/- 1% changes. I really hope some changes are made, since the investor pool will eventually start shrinking if these losses keep adding up.
I think these parts aren't quite right.
"with a consistent system, seems to be able to eventually win most of the time. Celeste is smart, he walks away once he is ahead enough."
If the game is fair then the system doesn't matter. The eventuality would be the house winning over time. Also Celeste has been back several times, so hasn't walked away yet. Being up and down one day and walking away doesn't really matter if he/she comes back to gamble again.
The variance talk is a fine discussion though.
