Maybe it's personal.  (If only the Titanic had an icebreaker)

He estimated that 19% or perhaps less was required to do a timewarp.  He implied that he had enough.  That's a lower bound, not an upper bound, on his hash power, but it incorporates an unknown linear factor (the perhaps less factor).

The longer you run a timewarp attack, the more likely it is to succeed.  That scales linearly because each trial is independent.

The network is now 26 mhps.  I expect it to go over 30 mhps by the time the "time to kill xmr"  clock runs out.  32 mhps seems more reasonable for estimations.

If the network is 13.4 he would need 13.4 to have 50%. Or did you mean that he only needs 33%?

The probability of failure at each step accumulates multiplicatively.  Half the hash doesn't mean you are half as likely to succeed.  It means you are exponentially less likely to succeed.

The probability of a 51% attack with the numbers you have mooted is vanishing.  Effectively zero.  The probability of a time-warp is miniscule, but meaningful.  Less than 4% certainly.
BUT:
1) he probably has more resources than you think, and
2) a marginally successful attack does not suffice to damage the ledger if it is deftly mitigated in the event.

MEW - Monero Economy Workgroup communication

A taskforce is set up to address the issue of a possible "BCX exploit", and an ultimatum by BCX to find and fix it in 72 hours lest a serious attack is launched upon Monero.

The taskforce consists of several Monero developers, AnonyMint, CZ, jl777 and me.

There are differing opinions in the taskforce concerning the severity of the threat. No coinkiller is yet found and several avenues are probed. The members who have technical competence are talking about their views themselves.

Regardless of the outcome in the technical side, this is a serious economic attack on Monero - about 15% of the pre-ultimatum value is lost, and there is a great information asymmetry plaguing traders currently. It is notable that nobody has offered to borrow XMR for shorting (which I could provide against full guarantee deposit of BTC). Neither has anyone bought the PUT options. This means that the downside speculation has so far been limited to selling out from a trader's own stash. An economically motivated player who knows for sure about a lethal attack might decide to take leverage for personal gain.

I believe that the Monero devs are up to their task and can mitigate the potential exploit, and fix the code in preparation of the announced attack. I further believe that Monero will rise even stronger. Since I am not in possession of any knowledge that indicates that a realistic attack could take place, I can only estimate the probability that it exists unnoticed, and my estimate is 4-8%.

The MEW will be inaugurated on Tuesday, and also the devteam has important announcements (not related to the attack). Provided that our coin still exists, I am sure we have a great future ahead of us as a community with these new methods of organizing our activities for the mutual benefit.

anonymity doesn't matter.  pointless thread.

Indeed and he deserves credit for that along with 1000s of others. But that wasn't a short-term trading analysis.

I rather fancy the idea of publishing the sender of (most) every ring signature on the block chain instead at a future date of my choosing.

I warned you don't fuck with me.

I will make sure BBR has the mitigation ready assuming they are still cooperative with me and they don't give my mitigation to XMR.

You are not dealing with BCX any more. You are dealing with me. Capice.