Quick fact check.

Bitcoin trading is a massive game of poker. Everyone is trying to play the game of being smarter than the next guy. Everyone is looking at exactly the same information trying to figure out how much more money there is to come into bitcoin. Everyone is trying to work out who is in, and who is out, and who is planning to get in. After this exercise has been conducted en-masse, 90% of traders will loose money to 10% who gain. Once all the money has moved off the sidelines into the market, the market stops going up. The participants in this game are by and large fellow forum posters and readers.

Yes, fact checking exercise for you few delusional folk who are going to get burned hard (if you weren't the first time). The wall st money is not in bitcoin. The only money that is here on the exchanges is your fellow small time traders, mainly students, small-businesses owners and small time employees (maybe a few retired folk).

Despite 90% of traders loosing, it seems 90% of people posting on the forums seem to be adamant they are amongst the few who have succeeded. Such is human nature I guess, and one would do well to learn a lesson from this that may profit them in their own personal endeavors. One does get tired of this particular aspect (can you call it "pride" ?). Over the years, the one thing that doesn't seem to change is, well, it has always been human beings involved.

Let's agree that the big bucks have still yet to arrive, and it would take a sizeable world event for that to happen. I will go out on a limb now and say, despite the exceptional global economic circumstances, If you're predicting established wall st funds moving into bitcoin, you are insane. Categorically insane, since nobody knows what the future is and the probability of such an event (as can be rationally calculated based on human history) is miniscule.

So to conclude this quick fact check, let's be in agreement. You are trading with logically insane people. If you are holding anything more than a small (dollar-wise) amount of bitcoins right now, you are insane. Full stop. And you that bad things happen to insane people who put money on the line, right?

Using the above assumptions, I call, based on these assumptions, a high probability this latest rally a massive dead cat bounce. No new money coming in, just a rush of cash that was already in brokerage accounts - or the bank accounts of old bitcoin traders - back into bitcoin. The rally continues until the last sucker is back into bitcoin, everyone realizes there's no new money, and then bam it finishes as fast as it ends.

Criticism will be accepted if it is constructive.