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dmwardjr don't miscontrue what people are saying. Your analysis is much appreciated, but it would be better appreciated in a separate thread. As has been alluded to previously, this is and has been a thread dedicated to the analysis of Masterluc. So despite the ambiguous thread title, when people come here they are looking for analysis specifically from Luc. You'd better serve yourself and the community by starting a separating thread or contributing to a more general thread (Afrikoin's thread, for example, was mentioned; he welcomes analysis from all).
I could care less what you're saying. I've ALREADY given my thoughts. WHEN the title changes and/or Luc asks me to stop, I'll stop; Until then, ignore me. I actually personally don't have a problem with it. Just trying to more clearly convey the sentiment of others. |
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dmwardjr don't miscontrue what people are saying. Your analysis is much appreciated, but it would be better appreciated in a separate thread. As has been alluded to previously, this is and has been a thread dedicated to the analysis of Masterluc. So despite the ambiguous thread title, when people come here they are looking for analysis specifically from Luc. You'd better serve yourself and the community by starting a separating thread or contributing to a more general thread (Afrikoin's thread, for example, was mentioned; he welcomes analysis from all).
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will be interesting to see Bitcoin eventually change current POW algo
i am especially interesting in hearing arguments supporting this *new* move and actually follow through with arguments.
Bitcoin doesn't excite me anymore like it used to. TBH
A large part of that is the decline in community quality, Bitcoin core spiraling into egos and broken promises. i Have trust as top of my list as preferred qualities.
I cant believe Core actually back pedaled on SegWit2X?! Doesn't matter what arguments you make. They intentionally misled a whole consensus process to get what they wanted.
I am laughing because i dont see how they can be trusted anymore.
Bitcoin Cash proponents always said Core would not keep their end of the deal regarding 2X. Surreal watching it play out now.
Bruh...stop it with this tinfoil hat nonsense |
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And where exactly is this influx of miners gonna come from? And let us not forget the Coinbase coins haven't been issued yet and won't until January.
miners are rational actors, anything could happen. The current miners could switch sides OR new mining pools could emerge and mine BCH eg MGMT Lol would this be before or after Roger, Jihan and crew fork off? Gonna be difficult to prop up two chains. Alot of shit COULD happen lol. The question is what is the probability of said happening. In any case, best of luck to you guys in your endeavor. Methinks "segwitcoin" will be quite alright. |
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And where exactly is this influx of miners gonna come from? And let us not forget the Coinbase coins haven't been issued yet and won't until January.
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Ask any oldtimer, and you’ll find that masterluc is something of a legend in the Bitcoin community. His main claim to fame is that he called the top of the November 2013 Bitcoin bubble and the subsequent bear market. On December 6, with the price at $1100, he said: “Third day in a row I wake up, see charts and ask myself "Is this the end?" and third day in a row answer is "Yes.” End of first historical bullish trend 2010-2013.” https://cointelegraph.com/news/legendary-bitcoin-trader-masterluc-predicts-15000-bitcoin-this-yearDoes this guy post here? Everyone involved in Bitcoin posts in bitcointalk, so he surely has an account? Anyway, about the prediction, $15,000 is doable IF we avoid the potential segwit2x disaster. If Jeff Garzik keeps pushing a nonsensical hardfork in November, we may crash and we may go back in time 1+ year in order to recover. If we can through that and avoid the hardfork smoothly, we can be looking at $10,000 by Christmas for sure, not sure about $15,000, but who knows, once that psychological 5 figure barrier is broken, sky is indeed the limit. He doesn't post here anymore but has an account on tradingview under PentarhUdi and also posts on some Russian site. Here's a link to his old thread in which some users are kind enough to post translations of his posts from the Russian board: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=274613.0 |
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He didn't predict 15k by the end of the year. He said his analysis was showing him very little resistance to 15k. The semantics might seem small but there's a big difference between an saying "the price is going to x" vs interpreting what he's seeing in his analysis. The 40 -110K range is where he sees the end of the current bull cycle whenever it actually ends.
Check his tradingview page and his blog. He definitely is of the opinion Bitcoin can reach 15k this year.So he kind of said it, depends on how good google translates russian to english. He even posted that he sees a possibility for BTC to reach 100k!!!! Search for pentarhudi, bitcoin vanga via google and you will find the sources! These are pretty brave calls. As I said he was right in the past, but again he is just a human being and past performance doesn't mean he will be right again. I already follow him on tradingview as well as his old thread on here that some users are kind enough to translate his Russian. We are essentially saying the same thing. There is a difference between saying something "can go to x" and saying something "will go to x." He is saying 15k is POSSIBLE due to what he sees as little resistance to get there. He is not, however, predicting 15k by the end of the year. |
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He didn't predict 15k by the end of the year. He said his analysis was showing him very little resistance to 15k. The semantics might seem small but there's a big difference between an saying "the price is going to x" vs interpreting what he's seeing in his analysis. The 40 -110K range is where he sees the end of the current bull cycle whenever it actually ends.
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You're trying too hard. Give it a rest.
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I refuse to believe this thread is even remotely serious
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Lol BTC aint going anywhere near 1600 between now and October
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I've read a lot of articles about people claiming bitcoin will be worth millions in the future, for example John mcAfee recently said bitcoin will be 500K in 3 years.
Now, imagine if this was true, and it was in fact 500K/BTC. The total market cap would then be 10.500.000.000.000, or about 10 trillion dollars. This is an unbelievable and unachievable amount of money. Even if we ignore the market caps, imagine how many people would become rich? Millions would become millionairs, hundreds would become billionaires, all in a matter of 3 years. This would cripple the global economy as we know it.
My best guess is that, in 10 years, bitcoin might be around it's absolute peak of 30K, giving it a total market cap of about 630.000.000.000$, or 630 billion. The total market cap of cryptos would then be around 2 trillion if the some of the better alts gain more traction. I believe this is fairly realistic. This means BTC would have to rise with around 7 - 8$ a day.
Edited
Your logic is weird. People who invest early in successful companies/assets always end up with a shit lot of money later on. Early adopters are taking a tremendous amount of risk and they get rewarded for it justifiably. Think of the guys who invested in Microsoft or Apple very early on and held on to their shares for a decade. Those guys are rich beyond their dreams. Warren Buffet is one of the richest person in the world because he invested in all the right places at a very early age. Why do you it think is any different for Bitcoin? Early adopters will get filthy rich (they already are). There will be a new class of millionaires and billionaires. Wasn't this case during the dotcom bubble too? Lots of people got crazy rich during that time. Same thing will happen with cryptocurrencies. People adopting now will get rich. For people adopting 10 years later, it will be just another asset giving 5-10% ROI a year. It's all about risk vs reward premium. Unlike companies, cryptocurrencies have no national border. So while calculating marketcap we can't just compare it to Amazon or any other company. Cypto's reach is global and possibility of much large marketcaps. Having said all this, there is no guarantee Bitcoin will be the dominant coin of the future. Most altcoins are technologically far superior to Bitcoin. It's questionable how long the network effect will keep Bitcoin at No.1. With the impending hard fork on August 1, the flippening might finally happen. I wouldn't call my logic weird, per se. I just get fed up with a lot of people who think bitcoin will reach the stars because 'they want it bad enough and their heart is pure'. You must understand that in order for a bitcoin to be worth 30K, someone has to buy this coin believing it will go higher. True, there might be a lot of crypto millionaires and billionaires, but as soon as they try to cash out, the markets will drop again. That's the (only) problem with cryptos; the price will not be fixed, meaning that when someone takes out his fiat money, bitcoins price will drop. When one thousand holders all cash out 30K, the price will drop further. Also, you can't compare an extremely young asset class to one of the most dominant and globally accepted assets in the world. Gold has been a standard for wealth and security for thousands of years. I agree bitcoin can definitely take golds place in a few decades, but you have to realise most people today are highly sceptical and conservative. Last, the flippening will never happen. People are realising slowly but steadily that there's no company on earth interested in using ethereums token, they're only interested in the tech and possibly the chain. Plus, there are a lot of materials and metals better than gold, more valuable, more rare, more pure, yet gold remains the ultimate standard. Bitcoin will forever remain the first crypto, the one above all. Most future investors will be looking for a safe investment that gives a better ROI than the bank. They won't go looking for coins they don't understand if bitcoin is right in front of them. Also, august 1st will be a non event, the upcoming fork is planned for november. If anything, august 1st will have a very small dip, nothing more. You're assumption is that 10, 20, 30 yrs from now, everything will still be valued in fiat. However, everything could very well be valued in crypto in the coming future and thus these crypto millionaires and billionaires wouldn't need to "cash out". My point is, you're making a lot of assumptions to come to a conclusion that BTC can't break a $30,000 threshold. If there is one thing we DO know it's that honey badger don't give a fuck about what you think it can or can't do. Hadn't thought of that. To follow up on that point, I believe in 20-40 years oil will be virtually gone, so the dollar won't be tied to oil anymore. It can go back to gold, it can go back to something new, like cryptos, or crypto (or another currency) will take dollars place. Like someone else said, everything is becoming more and more digital. It's only logical currency will become digital as well. Maybe BTC could become the eventual standard, a global currency. Btw my post wasn't intended to make a point, I just wanted to stimulate healthy debate about the future possibilities Achievement unlocked  |
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I've read a lot of articles about people claiming bitcoin will be worth millions in the future, for example John mcAfee recently said bitcoin will be 500K in 3 years.
Now, imagine if this was true, and it was in fact 500K/BTC. The total market cap would then be 10.500.000.000.000, or about 10 trillion dollars. This is an unbelievable and unachievable amount of money. Even if we ignore the market caps, imagine how many people would become rich? Millions would become millionairs, hundreds would become billionaires, all in a matter of 3 years. This would cripple the global economy as we know it.
My best guess is that, in 10 years, bitcoin might be around it's absolute peak of 30K, giving it a total market cap of about 630.000.000.000$, or 630 billion. The total market cap of cryptos would then be around 2 trillion if the some of the better alts gain more traction. I believe this is fairly realistic. This means BTC would have to rise with around 7 - 8$ a day.
Edited
Your logic is weird. People who invest early in successful companies/assets always end up with a shit lot of money later on. Early adopters are taking a tremendous amount of risk and they get rewarded for it justifiably. Think of the guys who invested in Microsoft or Apple very early on and held on to their shares for a decade. Those guys are rich beyond their dreams. Warren Buffet is one of the richest person in the world because he invested in all the right places at a very early age. Why do you it think is any different for Bitcoin? Early adopters will get filthy rich (they already are). There will be a new class of millionaires and billionaires. Wasn't this case during the dotcom bubble too? Lots of people got crazy rich during that time. Same thing will happen with cryptocurrencies. People adopting now will get rich. For people adopting 10 years later, it will be just another asset giving 5-10% ROI a year. It's all about risk vs reward premium. Unlike companies, cryptocurrencies have no national border. So while calculating marketcap we can't just compare it to Amazon or any other company. Cypto's reach is global and possibility of much large marketcaps. Having said all this, there is no guarantee Bitcoin will be the dominant coin of the future. Most altcoins are technologically far superior to Bitcoin. It's questionable how long the network effect will keep Bitcoin at No.1. With the impending hard fork on August 1, the flippening might finally happen. I wouldn't call my logic weird, per se. I just get fed up with a lot of people who think bitcoin will reach the stars because 'they want it bad enough and their heart is pure'. You must understand that in order for a bitcoin to be worth 30K, someone has to buy this coin believing it will go higher. True, there might be a lot of crypto millionaires and billionaires, but as soon as they try to cash out, the markets will drop again. That's the (only) problem with cryptos; the price will not be fixed, meaning that when someone takes out his fiat money, bitcoins price will drop. When one thousand holders all cash out 30K, the price will drop further. Also, you can't compare an extremely young asset class to one of the most dominant and globally accepted assets in the world. Gold has been a standard for wealth and security for thousands of years. I agree bitcoin can definitely take golds place in a few decades, but you have to realise most people today are highly sceptical and conservative. Last, the flippening will never happen. People are realising slowly but steadily that there's no company on earth interested in using ethereums token, they're only interested in the tech and possibly the chain. Plus, there are a lot of materials and metals better than gold, more valuable, more rare, more pure, yet gold remains the ultimate standard. Bitcoin will forever remain the first crypto, the one above all. Most future investors will be looking for a safe investment that gives a better ROI than the bank. They won't go looking for coins they don't understand if bitcoin is right in front of them. Also, august 1st will be a non event, the upcoming fork is planned for november. If anything, august 1st will have a very small dip, nothing more. You're assumption is that 10, 20, 30 yrs from now, everything will still be valued in fiat. However, everything could very well be valued in crypto in the coming future and thus these crypto millionaires and billionaires wouldn't need to "cash out". My point is, you're making a lot of assumptions to come to a conclusion that BTC can't break a $30,000 threshold. If there is one thing we DO know it's that honey badger don't give a fuck about what you think it can or can't do. |
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All the TA guys I trust are bullish and are seeing new ATHs incoming.
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BIP 91 locking in is just a promise. If the miners that signaled will keep their word and signal for BIP 141 (actual SegWit) and reject blocks that don't signal, then and only then will BIP 148 become irrelevant.
But isn't that now basicaly more or less a formality or could there be a bit of manipulations behind? Yes, it is essentially a formality. No miners signaling for BIP91 is going to be crazy or dumb enough to not actually follow through when they'd be stepping on their own toes. Not to mention, if it was their intention to not execute then why signal to begin with when you could have just not signaled? Sometime in the next 48 hrs BIP148 will become unnecessary. |
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Lol we are definitely NOT in a bubble.
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The bottomline is the CORE developed Segwit WILL be activated. That much is very much clear at this point.
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the bad thing is that bitmain is saying that they will shift their hashrate to their own shit coin bitcoin clone, so the network will be unsecure with a major hashrate dropping
i hope this is not something that can promote a 51% momentarily, because it would be a disaster, or bitmain itself would do it instead since they would not support bitcoin core anymore
Potentially it's Jihan bluffing because he'll lose that hack he had with the ASIC's or whatever? Glad to see that SegWitx2 is basically implemented with Core. Definitely nothing but Jihan selling woof tickets |
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