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LOL'd (and upvoted of course  ) |
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Edit: But, my thesis is also that if the rate of price increase manages to remain below a certain threshold then a rally can be sustained, at which point price growth is limited by another mechanism, for which I have another set of tools to monitor.
Wow, that sounded very mysteriously... Could you elaborate? I presume this other limiting mechanism is somehow related to coins needed to "feed" the miners, i.e. fresh fiat inflow is required to balance with freshly mined coins. How it does balance depends on the current exchange rate. Right? |
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3. We just broke the 100 EUR barrier!
Many US-based traders tend to overlook Europe, a second major player in this game and how Bitcoin price tends to bounce off or stick to the round figures in EUR:
ATH being so close to 200 EUR
The biggest (so far) rally had a short-term correction around 100 EUR
May 2013 plateau around 100 EUR
It seems that the mythical "whale" is Euro-based!
Where? The only EU exchange that I know is bitstamp. And current bitstamp price is 95,09 euros / btc. I was referring to Mt.Gox price. Yeah, I know, you're gonna tell me that Gox isn't relevant anymore, but the truth is that everyone is still watching Gox prices very closely as a kind of referrence, even if not actually making transactions there. Mt.Gox still has the highest liquidity and market depth. bitcoin.de -> 99.79 EUR/BTC
Having different people consider different exchanges as their "true" price indicator has one very interesting side effect: Any strong resistance level (either a previous high or any round figure in a major currency) gets split into more less strong: one on Mt.Gox and some other on other exchanges. This makes it easier to break any such barrier as less momentum is required. |
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I believe the following factors relevant to the recent price movement got underestimated in most analysis: 1. Buying mining hardware served as a kind of "back door" for the investors to the Bitcoin world until quite recently. This door is now at least half-closed due to the recent price:diffuculty ratio combined with anticipated further hashing power increases ( 2PH/s expected from CoinTerra in December, 4PH/s from Bitmine before April 2014, just to name the biggest). Those interested in getting larger quantities of Bitcoins can no longer sneak in by buying mining hardware without the risk of having substatially negative short-term return on their investment. Many may see OTC transactions with a premium as a more sensible alternative and I believe that recent price spikes on exchanges were liquidations of such large OTC buy-ins. 2. Any spikes on Mt.Gox got dismissed as not being genuine and attributed only to investors wanting to escape from Gox. I get a strong feeling that the price actually "wanted" to go up for some time already, but was constantly suppressed by traders believing in the above. Their misguided resistance could only last for so long (or they would have to have indefinitely deep pockets...) and it seems that this volcano which has been "boiling" underneath for quite some time already is now just about to explode! 3. We just broke the 100 EUR barrier! Many US-based traders tend to overlook Europe, a second major player in this game and how Bitcoin price tends to bounce off or stick to the round figures in EUR: ATH being so close to 200 EUR The biggest (so far) rally had a short-term correction around 100 EUR May 2013 plateau around 100 EUR It seems that the mythical "whale" is Euro-based! 4. If the price is only a result of blind market forces then why did it "dance around" such a round figure as 100 USD for so long? Of course because of human psychology attributting something magical to "double digits", "triple digits", etc. (thinking like: "Ouch, we're back to double digits, so cheap! I must buy!"). This way we got kind of sticky to 100 USD (first on Mt.Gox, later on the other exchanges) and only recently we set ourselves free! Are we gonna repeat the same exercise with prices denominated in EUR and having 100 EUR as the new strong support level? We shall see it soon... |
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@Tzupy
Don't kid your self more people read than comment [...]
Exactly! I've been following chodpaba's legendary thread with daily support/resistance charts and the methodology explained (back in 2012) and remember a huge read count of that thread. |
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Referring to price movement predictions, I believe the following factors get underestimated in most analysis: 1. Buying mining hardware served as a kind of "back door" for the investors to the Bitcoin world until quite recently. This door is now at least half-closed due to the recent price:diffuculty ratio combined with anticipated further hashing power increases ( 2PH/s expected from CoinTerra in December, 4PH/s from Bitmine before April 2014, just to name the biggest). Those interested in getting larger quantities of Bitcoins can no longer sneak in by buying mining hardware without the risk of having substatially negative short-term return on their investment. Many may see OTC transactions with a premium as a more sensible alternative and I believe that recent price spikes on exchanges were liquidations of such large OTC buy-ins. 2. Any spikes on Mt.Gox got dismissed as not being genuine and attributed only to investors wanting to escape from Gox. I get a strong feeling that the price actually "wanted" to go up for some time already, but was constantly suppressed by traders believing in the above. Their misguided resistance could only last for so long (or they would have to have indefinitely deep pockets...) and it seems that this volcano which has been "boiling" underneath for quite some time already is now just about to explode! 3. We just broke the 100 EUR barrier! Many US-based traders tend to overlook Europe, a second major player in this game and how Bitcoin price tends to bounce off or stick to the round figures in EUR: ATH being so close to 200 EUR The biggest (so far) rally had a short-term correction around 100 EUR May 2013 plateau around 100 EUR It seems that the mythical "whale" is Euro-based! 4. If the price is only a result of blind market forces then why did it "dance around" such a round figure as 100 USD for so long? Of course because of human psychology attributting something magical to "double digits", "triple digits", etc. (thinking like: "Ouch, we're back to double digits, so cheap! I must buy!"). This way we got kind of sticky to 100 USD (first on Mt.Gox, later on the other exchanges) and only recently we set ourselves free! Are we gonna repeat the same exercise with prices denominated in EUR and having 100 EUR as the new strong support level? We shall see it soon... To follow up with the new custom of introducing our professional backgrounds, I'm a Java EE Developer and a great fan of GNU/Linux with strong interest in financial makrets. My life philosphy is Zen. |
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@notme: your advice is correct in general, but there are issues with it. I can only react to a developing situation if I am awake.
During the last month several times I wouldn't have been able to execute a plan, because I was still sleeping at 6 am ( my time ).
This time I was surprised to see the whale buy at 6 pm, when I was awake but not expecting it ( not by the whale ).
I should probably try to write a trading bot that would execute specific orders while I am asleep.
Whenever I stay with large positions overnight I use http://www.bitcoin-tools.de/ to wake me up in case of any sudden price spike. Also, when I can't use a separate monitor for a Bitcoin graph (and on a Windows machine), I run Mining explorer as my always-on-top ticker (with refresh rate set to 1 minute). I consider such spikes at times inconvinient to both US and EU as more than just a coincidence, much in a spirit of Richard Wyckoff's description in his "Day Trader's Bible" (an excellent reading, BTW). In chapter "Trading Rules", on page 19 he wrote (note the fragment that I marked in bold): A stop order should also be placed if the operator is obliged to live the tape for more than a moment, or if the ticker suddenly is out of order. While he has his eye on the tape the market will tell him what to do. The moment this condition does not exist he must act as he would if temporarily stricken blind - he must protect himself from forces which may attack him in the dark.
I know a trader who once bought 500 shares of Sugar and then went out to lunch. He paid 25 cents for what he ate, but on the returning to the tape he found the total cost of that lunch was $5,000 and 25 cents! He had left no stop order, Sugar went down 10 points, and his broker sent him a margin call.
It's not exactly your situation, but I hope you get my point. Also beware, this book is so well-written that once you start reading it you won't be able to stop! And you will feel so eager to try all the tricks described. |
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Oh, and if anyone's interested and wants to play with it, I can post my script here. But sorry, it's in Haskell.  Yes, please be so kind and post your scrpt. [I'll happily send you a decent donation once I start mining with my (day 1) Jupiters  .] Many thanks for sharing your insight. |
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There is even a bear right on the chart, that's a clear signal that bitcoin will crash.
LOL! But I'm not sure how to interpret your graph, as there is a debate among scientists if giant panda is actually a bear or a raccoon. DNA shows more similarities to bears, but let's just hope they were wrong this time, so bitcoin can still go up... [Seriously speaking, I know there need not be a definitive answer. Similarly to categorization of books in a library, animal classification is not exact science, but more of a helping tool and a mere attempt to get as close as we can to how species diverged on the course of evolution. Pandas could as well have a group of their own.] |
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thx for vid but i don't understand what exactly is this guy trying to say, what's the ultimate point he is trying to make? i watched it and seemed incoherent like he was stringing things together and just stitching some conclusion together at the end can anyone enlighten me Essentially, the guy is showing how algorithms, that started from merely describing our reality (e.g. by means of numerical simulations), are now re-shaping our world. His conclusion is that we can't treat realms, which exist only in computer memory, as "less real" then the world of physical particles around us, as they both happen to strongly influence each other and they're both part of the very nature itself (as a consequence of whole human civilization, including all its artifacts, being a result of natural evolution). |
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There are good reasons not to have an internal PSU, additional expense, more heat to get rid off, and there is no problem convincing customs that it's not a mains power device that requires certification. If you need other cases, have them made and perhaps sell them on eBay as well. All the BFL models except the 500GH/s use external power supplies.
- The cost savings between the slightly smaller case can't be all that significant - I bet that any standard configuration, ordered in bulk is <$50. - A high quality (gold rated) PSU will generate little additional heat inside the case and is obviously easy enough to design for servers with far larger power requirements. - Customs is either going to want to open the case and look inside or they aren't. I can't imagine the size of the case nor the amount of free space inside will convince them one way or another. - yes, the components could be moved to a case, but that takes extra time and money that shouldn't be needed. All Avalon units allow for an internal PSU. Yeah, they got stuck in customs - no I have no idea whether this is part of the reason. I don't buy those reasons as justification - I still see this as a less efficient way to run 100+ of these units in a large operation. For the small miner (myself included) it's no issue - it's the serious mining operations that won't be as thrilled. Hey, let's be realistic: it's all about squeezing the revenue, rather than having nice and pretty boxes! Someone about to run a 100+ unit operation certainly wouldn't give a sh*t about placement of the PSUs, as long as the machines gave him advantage in terms of hashing power/$ and hashing power/kW. These would be the only two qualities that mattered, really. Yeah, of course there are many important things like warranty, return policy, company transparency and its level of expertise in a field, but certainly not PSU placement! And if there were actually big money involved in Bitcoin (which there isn't yet), we would be turning whole skycrapers into our custom datacenters rather than worrying about how would our units fit. The HFT guys are doing this already (start watching from 10:37 to get my point): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TDaFwnOiKVEMany thanks LightRider for bringing this eye-opening video to bitcointalk: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=32876.msg415446#msg415446 |
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While I personally find find Bitcoinorama's input really valuable (especially from the time when pre-orders had to be paid for) I also find the discussion around it quite fun to read (ironically, even more as all the parties involved seem to be so tense ). If not posts like this, we would go crazy only waiting for KnC to deliver and us constantly checking up the graphs and recalculating our ROI. This way, at least we have some entertainment in the meantime. The only issue is that we may only see our ticket prices for this show after it ends... |
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There is no right or wrong way to use the word shill (or any other word for that matter) as long as it's in the dictionary. No, it's actually the other way round... FIRST a word appears in live language (usually it starts in some specific environment: region, age/social group, subculture, etc.) and THEN this new word (or its new meaning) is recognised and acknowledged by dictionaries (after discussion among experts, where some of them would typically discourage the new word or its new use). But the key point there is that language is LIVE, rather than dictated upon us by dictionaries! And if the word becomes massively used, even its strongest opponents eventually have to accept and acknowledge it. The same goes with Bitcoin! |
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dzieki, to w takim razie nie oplaca sie kupowac na jednej a sprzedawac na drugiej?
bo np. teraz widze ze na btc-e jest po $113 a na mtgox po $123, calkiem duza roznica!
Różnica pomiędzy Mt.Gox a resztą pojawia się i znika regularnie co jakiś czas. Ostatnio część obserwatorów kojarzyła ją z faktem, że amerykański nadzór finansowy zablokował Mt.Gox-owi konto Dwolla. Teoria głosi, że część grubasów, czując jak władze biorą się za Gox-a, postanowiła wycofywać stamtąd swoje środki, przy czym Amerykanie po blokadzie Dwolla, nie chcąc czekać na powolne przelewy międzynarodowe, mogli to robić tylko w BTC, a reszta świata też z uwagi na limity dzienne Gox-a o wiele szybciej mogła wycofywać swoje środki w bitcoinach niż w tradycyjnych walutach (fiat). Wielu z tych: a. asekurantów b. panikarzy c. spekulantów nastawionych na szybki zysk (który po kwietniowej bańce się skończył) po ostatnich newsach dotyczących Gox-a zwątpiła w bitcoiny i potrzebowała ich już tylko na moment transferu środków do innego kantora (którym często był Bitstamp) i tam robiła za chwilę odwrotną operację wymiany BTC na USD w celu ostatecznego wycofania swoich środków. Na potwierdzenie tej teorii była (i nadal jest) widoczna nierównowaga strony kupującej i sprzedającej, kiedy się porównuje order booki obu tych kantorów: Mt.Gox i Bitstamp. Zatem ta z pozoru wymarzona dla arbitrażystów różnica kursów była wynikiem tego: 1. na ile rynek wyceniał w danej chwili ryzyko trzymania środków na Gox-ie 2. jaką premię inwestorzy byli gotowi zapłacić za możliwość szybkiej wypłaty dużych sum z Gox-a Dobry arbitrażysta wkalkulowuje ryzyko z punktu 1. (utraty lub zamrożenia środków) przy podejmowaniu swoich decyzji, bo to co na pierwszy rzut oka wygląda na szybki i łatwy zarobek niekoniecznie takim jest... |
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