I think it's a misunderstanding  that fiat will be obsolete because of its elastic supply. No, there is nothing wrong in the elastic money supply. The wrong is humans just can not manage their greed through fiat.

It is also a misunderstanding that the possible success of Bitcoin is because of its fixed supply. A fixed  money supply creates high interest rate, lowering the velocity, which kills itself, said as " the one kills greed kills himself".

No, it's not true that the fixed supply makes Bitcoin possibly succeed. It is the way it produces itself, which is a better management on greed and fraud over fiat.

 In a certain timeframe, Bitcoin supply is not fixed. In the technology itself, it's not either. I think complaints about fiat for its incapabability of managing greed misleads the reason to its elastic money supply, and further misleads us from the true reasons of bitcoin's possible success.

Could that mean some other one is buying a lot, as well?

How can we compare volumes between exchanges with and without charges?  They are just not comparable.

However, the volumes by the exchange its self are comparable.  If we compare current volume of BTC-China with its past volume, we see it has resumed to volume of last bubble. The same happens on Huobi, Okcoin and Bitfinex.

Why volumes increase to or close to those of last bubble, in a downtrend market? Does that mean we are close to bottom? Anyone to comment?

You are right. The true cost is capital investment and electricity cost. But, when we are talking about a turning point of difficulty, things may be different. I suppose the day will come when miners will have to take electricity as pure cost whist others as sunk cost.

I guess shorting on exchange and covering off exchange is a cycling game running till now. If you have doubt in Btc supply for shorting,  look at swap offers on bitfinex, supply is plenty.  The true concern is how they can buy back to close shorts. If they do so on exchanges, this may drive prices even higher than shorting level. There, they can go to miners off exchange, who has  plenty block chain rewards. That makes the cycling game, driving prices down and down.

The key thing is, when will supplies be drained out? on swap offer end or miner supply end? It seems to me, btc supplies from the miners end will be drained out first. AND we can track that by difficulty.

Anyway this is only my guess, being a hodler desperate for rallies. It may be totally wrong.

How do we know miners are running at a loss while difficulty is up up and up? In my mind, the pure cost is only electricity, the others could be regarded as sunk cost. How much is the electricity, anybody knows here?

Also in my mind, leverage shorting is the main power driving prices down. Others could be negligible. Importantly, where does the shorting cover to close their shorts?

I think only when difficulty turns down, there is a chance for a new buble. Why? Because that means miners will be having no profit, and those who are shorting can not buy enough BTC under exchange to close their shorts.

Whales are shorting,  but they have to buy it back to close their shorts. Where do they buy? they can't buy it back on the exchanges, as that in many cases would drive prices even higher than shorting level. I guess they cover from miners under the exchanges, at a so called market price that shorting whales actually made.

Only when miners have no profit and are unwilling to mine and to sell , the whales can not short anymore. A new bubble will start.  So, only  when difficulty trend turns down, the game will be over.

I can not figure it out. What approval do they need? They need approval for trading their shares (say public ETF?) or approval of legal status of the fund ( say private ETF?), Can I put it that way?

Let's say, for a private ETF, if it stops clients' liquidation,  does it mean something serious happening in their capital flow（ like gox?)

Those who are crashing out are with swapped Coins. Even for miners, they may sell short, waiting for coins to be mined to cover. This has been the case in the past months I guess. So, I see profits for selling short come from losses for hodlers/ coin lenders. That has been the whole thing.

Forget about the adoption. The whole circular are all speculators. Who would adopt btc for transaction by that volatility?

But, coin supplies are plenty. As long as the coin swap market is there, short sellers have plenty bullets. Where is the bottom? Any one to comment?

(Sorry, I forgot my pin under Threebits, got to re-register)