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1  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Why most of us are losing money in sports betting? on: November 12, 2020, 06:48:02 PM
Before COVID screwed everything up this year I had done fairly well across the last 3+ years essentially betting full time with an ROI of around 5.5% which was as well as one can hope for with a large enough sample. I've made some money after the leagues restarted but it became hard to model and I just about broke even since July.

A few things:

Top flight European soccer spreads and even goals are unbettable. The bookies have far too sharp of lines, especially since they have access to data you don't (unless you pay a ton of money or know how to access some stuff you aren't supposed to). There are viable markets in things like bookings, corners, in part because they are somewhat incidental - nobody plays to get booked or relies on a lot of corners to win - and somewhat related to referee performance as well. Those are the kind of data you can actually get and do some modeling with but it's still not that great of markets.

COVID also really screwed up the lower leagues in out of the way countries and that's really the biggest shame when it comes to betting on soccer. Advanced metrics haven't really hit the lower youth leagues in countries like Algeria or Tanzania or Iran yet but you can bet on them nonetheless. This gives you a better shot at finding something the bookies missed. U20 internationals in South America, some of the lower league North African matches can be wildly mispriced and that's the sort of opportunity you really need. I had a leg up as I logged 10,000+ hours of Football Manager over just 4 editions and have some familiarity with almost any league that made it into the game at some point (and took Ireland to two World Cups in the same save)  but hey, it really teaches you a lot.

MLB, NBA, and NHL are actually still excellent markets but for completely different reasons. MLB's advanced metrics (sabermetrics) is so ridiculously advanced and the data entirely accessible instantaneously direct from the league down to the angle and speed of each pitch and each swing of the bat that there's a lot of stuff that the bookies simply can't keep up with. I'm not sure if it's really bettable if you aren't familiar with advanced metrics and projections at that level, but if you are there are gaping mispricings every day and the season goes for 162 games (when COVID isn't around) and so the dataset is huge and more importantly, bookies have trouble pivoting on quickly enough on real-time changes that you would be abl to notice in game and then test out immediately with data, and they run on a lot of old assumptions and "common wisdom" which doesn't play out in practice. COVID ruined this but for as long as I have data on the lines, spring training games where the "road" team is an AL team that didn't make the playoffs the year prior, just betting on that would leave you up 200 units up since 2007. Those games don't even count, but they count for money. This was in part due to bookies assigning a home team advantage when in spring training there's next to no home field advantage and they forget that after the 7th inning they swap out every player and put in random minor leaguers. There are a few other really obvious and consistently mispriced lines in baseball betting and can make you a fairly tidy sum of money. Remember that you should be betting on value anyway, so you're really betting against how well the bookies are setting the lines, not other actual people or even the teams in a sense (unless you're in a betting exchange situation but those don't exist for Americans). Stuff like weather, umpire, bullpen fatigue, whether a pitcher works well with a catcher or not are all elements that in the aggregate can give you a 1-2% edge if you correctly take into account. I have a 16% ROI from just betting on ML dogs in baseball spring training 2019.

NBA is even better since there's basically 0 point in betting on anything for the whole game. First quarter, first half road dogs, filter by the obviously related params like strength of bench and turnovers, can really be great bets. Last few years the Nets, the Hawks, and the Grizzlies managed to do incredibly well in the 1st half and then consistently blow the second half. 1st half ML bets are a god damn goldmine. Particularly for road dogs, I have a 23% ROI after 239 wagers going 93-139-7, offsetting a fairly bad home ML dog record of -5% ROI. Something similar goes for hockey.

Some countries definitely have rigged games all the time though. Don't bet on Serbian domestic soccer, or the Chinese domestic league, or quite a few others. Stick to leagues where the pay is high enough to make rigging matches a bad deal.

Also, you're in it for the long haul anyway so variance is gonna be a thing no matter what. Don't panic and run your analysis. Individual results matter if you're a supporter, but as a bettor it is just what it is. I try not to bet on or against teams I support though, and leave most of the work to bots when it comes to placing the bets.

But anyway, yeah, it's entirely possible to make money doing this, but you'll need to be a step ahead of the bookie and really understand analytics and data or exploit any knowledge gaps. Unfortunately, unless you treat this as a job (as I did), you won't have time or energy to get all this done on your own, most likely, and insofar as betting systems never work, for sports it's true s well but datamining isn't a betting system, it's just analytics.

2  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: unknown wallet.dat format on: January 06, 2020, 12:30:42 AM
Hey there. I recently made an open source tool that will, among other things, automatically figure out the version prefix from metadata inside the wallet and dump out the contents. You can find it here: https://github.com/jimtje/walletlib

Although if you already know that your public key starts with a W, the version prefix byte is going to be either 72, 73, or 74. Just looking on Github, these may fit the bill, although not sure if they date back to 2014. Basically, the coins on these search results (there are quite a few):

https://github.com/search?o=asc&q=%22base58Prefixes%5BPUBKEY_ADDRESS%5D+%3D+std%3A%3Avector%3Cunsigned+char%3E%281%2C+73%29%3B%3B%22+filename%3Achainparams.cpp+fork%3Atrue&s=indexed&type=Code

https://github.com/search?q=%22base58Prefixes%5BPUBKEY_ADDRESS%5D+%3D+std%3A%3Avector%3Cunsigned+char%3E%281%2C+72%29%3B%3B%22+filename%3Achainparams.cpp+fork%3Atrue&type=Code

https://github.com/search?q=%22base58Prefixes%5BPUBKEY_ADDRESS%5D+%3D+std%3A%3Avector%3Cunsigned+char%3E%281%2C+74%29%3B%3B%22+filename%3Achainparams.cpp+fork%3Atrue&type=Code


3  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Service Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN] 🤖 TOKENGATEWAY.IO - REST API to send ERC20 tokens and ETH automatically on: June 22, 2019, 08:52:03 AM
It would probably make a lot more sense if one can import some eth addresses with tokens already on them, or at least allow the user access to private keys because not having control over our own keys isn't a great feeling.
4  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: What is the fastest way to bulk check btc addresses balance ? on: June 19, 2019, 09:40:29 AM
Run your own Electrum node and write a script to run against it, or index the blockchain into SQL like the Bitcoin-ABE backend and run against that.
5  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN][CLAM] CLAMs, Proof-Of-Chain, Proof-Of-Working-Stake, a.k.a. "Clamcoin" on: June 18, 2019, 04:10:08 AM
Bought some CLAM on Poloniex today...

Attempted withdraw to wallet...

Wondered why it showed Pending even after 20 minutes...

Then remembered Poloniex is broken. Sad

Open a support ticket and wait! I'm waiting on a few deposits in.  It's been 6 hours.

You think that after they lost 1800 BTC... they would at least bother to fix the CLAM wallet or ask Doog/X for further free assistance.   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

O well, shameless plug:  https://freebitcoins.com/swap/

Liquidity problem on your end too? Showing max amount of clams to swap to be 0 right now.
6  Economy / Exchanges / Re: Binance to block US customers on: June 14, 2019, 10:51:33 AM
Binance isn't really
If Binance blocks access to US customers, where else can they trade ? As a European, I'm not familiar with American crypto exchanges. What are the most popular ?

Anyway, they can always use OKEx.

Bittrex, Bitfinex, Kraken, Coinbase if they count... but it's hard to say what "most popular" means since volume isn't necessarily popularity and neither is number of registered users.
7  Economy / Digital goods / Re: XBOX ONE GAMES | ALL GAMES | XBOX & STEAM CODES | WARRANTY | BTC on: March 16, 2019, 07:40:49 AM
great vendor to deal with, definitely trustworthy, responsive made everything very easy
8  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: KRIP.TO a new automated trading platform for arbitrage between exchanges on: May 13, 2016, 01:31:12 PM
Hey, great work on this, I happen to run a niche dedicated server hosting operation and I have some underutilized servers in the US, I'll shoot you an email and see if you want to get a couple of free months and maybe use it at cost or something. I'm focused towards Asia so a lot of my servers not on the coast are feeling a bit abandoned as they ping pretty badly to Asia, but are perfectly fine otherwise.
9  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: Coin-Mixer - The fastest bitcoin mixer on: May 12, 2016, 03:42:10 AM
You'll get investors if potentially interested parties can view the source code and be satisfied prior to investing. Otherwise the risk is too high and we're throwing money into a black box.
10  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Cheap electricity for mining Bitcoin on: May 12, 2016, 03:00:28 AM
Eastern WA (Avista) is at 0.07something with a $8 minimum (not in addition, but as a credit unless you don't use $8 of electricity) but if you run a farm it can be as low as 0.04kwh. When I lived there it was 0.065. There are still a ton of rebates and whatnot you can finangle your way into - I think I got it down to 0.06 for straight residential at one point. The lack of income tax might help as well, and rent's cheap as fuck - my apartment in NYC is the size of the kitchen in WA and cost 4 times as much. So 600sqft for $425 with everything included in the end except electricity and internet - and some places do actually include electric - with no income tax, I'd say it's a decent deal except you have to at least spend some time in Eastern Washington. Great place if you are in the right line of work, shit place otherwise.

Also, dude who claimed Indonesia was dominated by the British, you mean the Anglo-Javanese expedition under Sir Stamford Raffles between 1811 and 1814 with a total of 45 days of fighting and only on the island of Java? I don't think they had electricity back then. America subsidized a lot of it after the Konfrontasi in the early 60s til the Asian Financial Crisis and I'd be pretty careful calling the country stable since you got issues in Aceh, ethnic divisions, and any internal strife is one helluva wild card. At least the only two problems in Washington/Idaho are meth and white-supremacists-sovereign-citizens.

In fact, if this is at all a long-ish term investment I'd be very careful on relying on subsidized electric rates and take it for granted. Anyone who's played Transport Tycoon (Deluxe, hopefully) knows that subsidies can't really be replied on and in the US it's going away slowly as more domestic oil reaches the market. Northern Idaho's seeing about a 1% increase a year now. There's a general lack of transparency in rates and it's pretty confusing but I'd say you should consider Texas, especially places like Austin if you can find reasonable space - where commercial base tariffs are pretty low for your demands and transmission only applies in certain circumstances. 0.025 or so to start for commercial at your level of need, I think.

Oh, Native Americans will always have an advantage in tax credits and if you have an in on 2/3 of any sovereign tribe please contact me immediately (best I got was 2/5) because it may be one hell of a win-win-win situation if you can swing something like that. Tribes have been overproducing if they're involved and a few attorneys and I have planned a perfectly legal in every possible way, beneficial in increasing infrastructure and employment, have essentially no risk (we ran it by the BIA already and state agencies), and am incredibly lucrative way for a tribe to make a ridiculous amount of money in addition if only the tribal council would agree to it by an overwhelming majority, in exchange perhaps there's free or really cheap land/power for you to mine coins. Unfortunately while all the principle parties on this end are actually minorities or of mixed heritage nobody is a member of a tribe so we haven't gotten very far in convincing more than just a few on any tribal council in several states.
11  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: Bitcoin core 0.12.1 on ubuntu 16.04 keep crashing on: May 12, 2016, 01:52:56 AM
I upgraded to 16.04 LTS and a lot of stuff seem to have compatibility issues. You can try to recompile it or go back to 14 or 15 or whatever you were on til they get things sorted out.
12  Economy / Digital goods / Re: Paypal Account with 135$ in Balance- Make an offer! on: May 12, 2016, 01:35:59 AM
How long have you aged it?

Have you ATOed it?

What are the questions and answers in case it comes up?

Do you have email access to the email associated with it, completely, without the owner knowing?

Premier, personal, business?

Debit card?

Do you have the card?

How many transactions have you put through it casually, what amounts, what's the longest hold, have you spoken to customer service?

If you can't adequately answer these questions it's worth fuck all except the info might lead to an easier account like overstock.com.

This isn't January Paypal. The less money but the more aged and biz the better. This account will probably kill the account of the recipient making it actually worth negative money.
13  Economy / Goods / Re: Need USA/UK Ebay Seller - Software Related Product's on: March 08, 2016, 07:02:12 PM
They will ban the seller's account instantly.  Tongue

Absolutely not, in fact if you read and apply the eBay TOS and not give into their customer service's bullshit attempts at scaring you, there is one specific to sell CD Keys to the exact rule of the eBay ToS provided you didn't keygen and do things in the right order.

I made over a grand an got most of my domestic competitors banned around Thanksgiving/Xmas, you gotta just know when to call the bluff know that the law does not prohibit the transfer of a CD Key that has value and has yet to be used in a manner that's not deceptive, whether it be a gift or a sale, and if eBay asks you to put an actual photo of the CD Key as the top photo ask for supervisor or just hang up, but you'll be going the extra mile that almost nobody will, can, nor would be able to.

Between various accounts in various countries (some are trickier, US/UK is dead easy, in fact common law countries are easy generally), I made about $1500 in about a month and half selling maybe 4 or 5 or 6 different kinds of software. Unfortunately people want support and that ate up way too more time.

Oh yeah, total grayhat I'd say, if eBay asks to help them out..... if the person you talk to on the phone sounds confused just ask for their immediate supervisor and the number and address to the legal department, usually that serves as a good wakeup call if you do your research ahead of time. Your goal is to not only set prices but to get rid of all your competitors.
14  Economy / Exchanges / Re: Circle Verification time? on: February 24, 2016, 02:30:20 AM
I'm in New York and essentially I do arbitrage with BTC, which obviously calls for some flow but limited number of ways I can do it without running out to the bank since my starting capital wasn't anyting significant, and have affiliate work which sometimes calls for almost micropayments. Coinbase was an ass to me for a bit but Circle is very friendly and responsive if you show the same degree of openness to them I find. Actually, as soon as I got my EIN everyone chilled out. Last time I had a hold on my account it was resolved in 2 hours, and always feel free to call, I always call because well, my livelihood depends a lot on timing. i hate to bug people on the phone but hey, my money my time, and you should consider doing that.
15  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: Free 10GB Hosting For Your Website on: February 24, 2016, 02:22:21 AM
Yo, so I signed up, and uh

a) I can't log in, FTP, cPanel, with the info you gave

b) Password recovery is in plaintext email and gives the wrong one anyway

c) No contact link
16  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: MaxiDed - worldwide dedicated servers, now BITCOIN accepted! on: February 24, 2016, 01:53:48 AM
adult and erotic in saudi arabia lol
17  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: RdpNation.com - BASIC RDP,E3-1230,SSD,32GB RAM,1GBIT, (FR,CA,USA,NL) 6$/M on: February 23, 2016, 12:51:10 PM
So nations A B C and D are all France?
18  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: Safe-Mail, free encrypted mailsystem on: February 23, 2016, 12:32:07 PM
Are you guys afffiliated with the old safe-mail? I remember them turning out to not be so safe after af ew years.
19  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: Bacloud.com - Dedicated servers, hosting, VPS! E3v3 server from 0.15 BTC! on: February 23, 2016, 12:17:50 PM
I can't tell if your TOS is serious or not because it's obviously way beyond the scope of enforceability as to American laws abroad even after Morrison and Kiobel, to the extent where I, not being American, could  be subject to you sanctions placed upon me due to your adherence to American laws when it never had jurisdiction over me.And it's hard to tell if you're sarcastic or not on the internet because it's over the top but in the uncanny valley.

Otherwise, i'd jump on some of those offers, at least a VPS to give it a go for a month.
20  Other / Off-topic / Re: The craziest shit you can buy with bitcoins right now? on: January 02, 2016, 08:49:03 AM
A month ago on a Chinese .onion forum I found this guy selling a homemade rifle.

https://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/3v7mjj/so_on_a_chinese_dnm_someone_was_selling_a_totally/?ref=search_posts

He actually also sent me instructions on making the bullets, but no way I'm importing a home made gun. If any y'all in china though, he's still trying to sell.
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