Excellent material to work with ...
Thanks.
Nice analysis ...
Thanks.
if bitcoin continue to grow at exponential rate
I do not see that in the data. At least not in the block size growth.
I call bullshit on exponential projections.
Yes.
Just to be clear,
polynomial is not
exponential.
Of course, there is clear a jump between the "no one knows bitcoin" and the "people start to use bitcoin", somewhen around PizzaDay.
But since then there is little upwards curvature, and if so, then it seems mainly quadratic? Look at the really low coefficients for the cubic term.
If bitcoin adoption does lead to exponential growth in the average blocksize, then that phase is probably still in the future?
In the end, it is a bit hard to judge, by the available data. To distinguish growth curves by only seeing the beginning is non-trivial.
That's interesting material
Thanks!
, thanks for posting. It would be interesting to do curve fitting with data at different points in time (in the past), to see if the optimal fit has changed since then.
Support me, and I can afford to keep working on it: 1EXmi79gMCSW9oKd1FhKPo57zg9wvau813
Also tweeting the picture helps, perhaps other sponsors will be found?
If it really starts to boom, of course we will see an exponential increase. If not, a linear approach is probably better. Most likely the exponential phase will start a bit later.
That's what I think, too.
I was actually surprised to see a clearly linear phase in the data, and over such a long time range.
Before I looked at it, I would have expected a more curved evolution. That surprise was the main motivation to post this.
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