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July 15, 2024, 10:35:48 PM *
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1  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Halving on: July 09, 2024, 08:55:25 PM
Where do we get coins for sale to satisfy the demand? Currently there are only 2 ways. Someone who already owns bitcoin can sell it to you and you can get a supply of fresh coins from a miner.
I'm curious why you distinguish between coins owned by "someone" and coins owned by miners.


I'm curious how the market will react when there's no sell pressure from miners anymore.
There already is no "sell pressure" from miners anymore. Compare the number of coins produced each day to the total number of coins sold each day. The fraction sold by miners is insignificant.
2  Economy / Economics / Re: Citi Predicts 200 Bps Fed Rate Cuts By July 2025 Amid Economic Slowdown on: July 09, 2024, 08:44:18 PM
The Federal Reserve has made it clear many times that they have exactly two mandates: low inflation and full employment. They have made it clear many times that interest rates will remain high as long as employment in the U.S. remains high and inflation remains above their target. They have also made it clear that they are willing (and even expect) to suffer a recession in order to lower inflation.

So, I don't get why so many people predict interest rate moves based on factors that the Federal Reserve is not concerned with.
3  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Justin Bons' prediction on long-term security of BTC on: July 09, 2024, 08:19:05 PM
Just wondering, does this make any sense at all?

Without reading the whole thing, it appears that his arguments all boil down to this:

Quote
It has to double in price every 4 years for a century or sustain extremely high fees!
Just to maintain the present level of security...

1. "extremely high fees". The cost of the fees depend on the economic value of the transactions. Block space is limited, so only the most economically valuable transactions will be included. The fees paid for those transactions will be reasonable because transactions requiring unreasonable fees will not use Bitcoin. In simple terms, if you think the transaction fees are too high for what you want to do, then Bitcoin is not for you. None of this means that Bitcoin will fail. It will just fail for you.

2. "maintain the present level of security". It is assumed that the present level of security is the minimum necessary level of security. That may or may not be true. I have yet to see someone determine the minimum necessary security.
4  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Halving on: July 09, 2024, 07:40:29 PM
This is forseen as to help lower the supply of bitcoin into market which lead to increase of scarcity.
...the market demands increases as the supply decreases
The halving does not lower the supply of bitcoins. The supply of bitcoins increases every block until there are 21 million bitcoins. At no point does the supply go down.


...if there is a bakery with some special cake, people rushed with the mentality that these cakes will be finished soon because the supply is limited..
That is a bad analogy because bitcoins are not consumed.


Which means the production cost of each Bitcoin increases. Ideally, this is enough to increase the price of Bitcoin.
The price of a bitcoin does not depend on production costs.  In fact, it is exactly the other way around. Due to how mining works, the production cost tends to approach the price. In other words, the production cost depends on the price.


Because no miners will be selling their Bitcoins at a loss.
Why do people always say that miners will never sell at a loss? That is absurd. A miner must pay for their operating costs by selling their bitcoins regardless of whether the price is higher or lower.
5  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Don't always believe what you see on screen about cryptotrading on: July 08, 2024, 08:51:23 AM
I also have a question, how do you identify the real traders from the fake one?

It's easy. If they are on Facebook, or YouTube, or TikTok, they are fake.
6  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: terminal.lightning not working on: July 06, 2024, 07:52:51 PM
Here is a thread devoted to problems with Umbrel. Perhaps someone has posted the solution to your problem there.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5356129.0
7  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: Lightning Node setup on: July 06, 2024, 07:52:18 PM
Here is a thread devoted to problems with Umbrel. Perhaps someone has posted the solution to your problem there.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5356129.0
8  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: The wallet system used by websites on: July 06, 2024, 07:39:20 PM
I doubt that there is any publicly available software that does exactly what you want.

The only publicly available software that I know of that is close to what you are looking for is BTCPay Server (https://btcpayserver.org/). Perhaps one of the devs who work on that would be willing to write your custom software.
9  Economy / Economics / Re: HODL_FEE BITCOIN HODLERS NEED TO PULL THEIR WEIGHT TOO on: July 05, 2024, 07:14:40 PM
Hodling is using Bitcoin, as well as spending and replacing.

Exactly. Hodling is a use of Bitcoin with the costs paid by someone else.

By no means should the protocol incentivise one against the other only to preserve the "goodwill of the community".
Also, messing with the monetary system of Bitcoin weakens it beyond any imaginable term.
The value of bitcoin is that the code is law, and intoducing such a distotive fee, could hinder the "immutability" of the digital gold.

I don't really agree, but I also think it is unlikely that the economics of Bitcoin will ever change.

Holders are helping Bitcoin indirectly, they're the one who make Bitcoin price can reach $73K.

Price is irrelevant. Bitcoin functions the same whatever the price.
10  Economy / Economics / Re: HODL_FEE BITCOIN HODLERS NEED TO PULL THEIR WEIGHT TOO on: July 04, 2024, 09:52:07 PM
... It seems reasonable to me for holders to pay for that benefit in some manner that has yet to be determined.

Currently, holders pay for the benefit to them through inflation. Personally, I believe that this is the best way to implement a fee for holding bitcoins because it is the simplest and it is effective. However, it is going away as the subsidy goes to 0.

So, my proposal would be to continue the subsidy forever -- a so-called tail emission.

I don't know what the right amount is, and I doubt there is a right amount, but I would do something like 0.025% of the total bitcoins per year. I picked that number because it is very small and insubstantial, but it is not 0.

I'm sure the inflation-is-evil crowd would strongly object because inflation is evil.

...This could be a way to clean up dust and deal with dormant coins whose private keys have long been lost.

There is no problem with dust and dormant coins.
11  Economy / Economics / Re: HODL_FEE BITCOIN HODLERS NEED TO PULL THEIR WEIGHT TOO on: July 04, 2024, 08:21:07 PM
Quote
Unfortunately, HODLers are not working. HODLers are expecting that others will be compensating miners so that the HODLers’ stake will maintain its value. In today’s design and perhaps inadvertently, HODLers are not living up to the bitcoin ethos.

This proposal is so wrong on so many ways i don't even knwo where to start.

Without getting into the proposal itself, I believe that the quote above does have some merit. People who hold bitcoins receive some benefit from the security that is paid for entirely by the people who transact (once the subsidy goes to 0). It seems reasonable to me for holders to pay for that benefit in some manner that has yet to be determined.
12  Economy / Economics / Re: Instutions and whales buying assets now on ground floor on: July 04, 2024, 08:09:00 PM
Im not expert Im just newbie but i have analytical mind

Then, I suggest more analysis before making claims based on weak premises and inadequate research.
13  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Mining is not for beginners on: July 01, 2024, 01:00:51 AM
I think that it would be more accurate to state that mining for a profit is not for beginners, but mining as an educational exercise is fine. Beyond buying the equipment and dealing with the heat and noise, mining itself is not that difficult.

However, it requires some expertise and lots of dedication (and cheap electricity) in order to make a profit.

For those beginners interested in mining, I suggest starting out by mining altcoins using something like NiceHash. It takes very little investment and you may discover very quickly if mining is really that interesting to you.
14  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Assange is free, examining Bitcoin's role on: June 26, 2024, 09:33:42 PM
Yesterday, The Times put WL's Bitcoin "war chest" at 4,000 BTC.

I'm proud to say that I donated a bunch of those in 2012 after Visa, Mastercard, and Paypal blockaded Wikileaks. Now that my bitcoins are all spent, I wouldn't mind getting a few of those back Wink
15  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Starting high quality Bitcoin merch e-commerce on: June 24, 2024, 06:54:58 PM
I don't know much about btcpay, but I found this documentation that might answer your questions: https://docs.btcpayserver.org/FAQ/Integrations/
16  Economy / Economics / Re: Money does not have value the only value is debt on: June 24, 2024, 06:10:35 PM
Here is a nice explainer video that explains how a debt based economy works -
https://youtu.be/CtIkFNhd-0Q?si=88KyU1xdAwFHRSHc
Watch it completely and a lot of misconceptions about money printing will be clear to you. Your concept of printing money is flawed. The banking system is bigger fraud than you think currently.

I recommend avoiding that video. It is full of deception and hyperbole. Much of what it contains is factual, but it is presented in a way that intentionally distorts the truth in order to promote an agenda.

The biggest misconception presented by that video (and by others) is the idea that the debt/money supply must continually be increased because if all debt is paid off then there is no money to pay the interest. I believe that is false. While paying off debt reduces the money supply, paying interest does not. Interest payments do not affect the debt/money supply. Also, the premise of all debt being paid off is absurd.
17  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Help starting out with joinmarket on: June 23, 2024, 03:53:10 AM
...
When I run the joinmarket `wallet-tool.py` script it shows me six "new" address at mixdepth 0. Do I then send BTC from my bitcoin-core wallet to those? Or can/should I just send BTC directly to one of those addresses when I do the initial purchase.

The addresses listed by wallet-tool.py are in your joinmarket wallet. bitcoin-cli might give you the same information, but I would use only wallet-tool.py. Obtain some bitcoins and send them directly to the first unused address listed in mixdepth 0.
18  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Bitcoin users or miners - who is behind(initiates) a bitcoin Locktime? on: June 21, 2024, 05:07:51 AM
Using nLockTime is like post-dating a check. It prevents a transaction from being confirmed before a specific time. You might give someone a signed transaction with nLockTime set to ensure that something else can happen before the transaction becomes valid.

Some wallets set nLockTime to the current height in order to prevent miners from arbitrarily re-orging the chain. I don't have a complete understanding of this use, so feel free to clarify.
19  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: A New Way to Think About Currency: The "Unit" Concept on: June 21, 2024, 04:53:42 AM
I wonder what the bitcoin community thinks about a new trend and wave. To avoid saying the name of a currency. To say 100 dolllars. You say 100 units. To say £100, one would say 100 units, 100 units in our currency, or 100 units in UK currency, and so on and so forth, for instance 100 bitcoin would be said 100 units in our currency, or 100 units in the units of bitcoin currency, or 100 units in Bitcoin. Do you think it would help phase currency units, so that one unit in most currencies would be quite close to the price of one banana or pack of crisps or peanuts?

Forget the nonsense from ChatGPT. I don't know why anyone would say "N units in Y" instead of "N Y".

Also, you seem to be suggesting that the term "unit" means a value that can vary. Again, not convenient.

Quote
A: How much is that beer?
B: It costs 3.62 units in dollars.
A: How much is a unit?
B: A unit is $0.69.
A: Couldn't you just tell me it costs $2.50?



20  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: 8,000 bitcoin Lost because of the blue death screen. on: June 21, 2024, 04:39:57 AM
Well, we are talking about $515 millions, for sure OP will do anything to recover them.
...
if i were in his shoes i would contact the best expert for this

That expert would tell you not to bother because you are wasting your time.
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