So I didn't take into account the 500% growth, in fact, it was just developing then and was some kind of anomaly with super profits, It wasn't really an "anomaly". We could also take the bull markets' amplitude alone to compare, although that would be a bit less precise. The 2017/18 bull was, albeit very strong, already weaker than the 2013 bull (from $2 to $1000 -> ~50.000% growth). Then the 2021 bull ($3000 - $70000 -> 2200%) was weaker than the 2017 bull, and the 2025 bull (until now: $15,500 - $124,000 -> 700%) probably will not reach the amplitude of the 2021 bubble either. We don't know if the price has reached its peak, but to match the 2021 bull amplitude we would need to reach $350000 at least (a 2200% increase from the 15500 low from 2022). I would be surprised if we reached more than $200,000. I don't understand, but if the price is not always 100% once every 4 years, then the ASICs will be turned off and the blockchain will stop, if that happens, then Bitcoin will not grow at all,
That is for sure a challenge, but if Bitcoin really depends on a 100% growth every 4 years, then it is indeed doomed. It is simply impossible, eventually there would need to be more BTC value than atoms in the universe  But there are transaction fees, which albeit currently are very low, in the future they would make up a ever-growing part of the miners' income and eventually the block rewards would not matter anymore that much. It is possible however that the security budget could get lower. There is also the possibility of merged mining, but that depends on a strong sidechain/altcoin market. As a last resort there could be either a tail emission (like Monero's, proposed I think by Peter Todd some time ago) or a switch to Proof of stake at least for a part of the security, but that are very controversial methods. It is perhaps possible to create a tail emission without changing the 21 million limit, as proposed here. You are right that this looks like madness, maybe we don’t know something and don’t understand what will happen next, you are talking about the fact that perhaps in the future Bitcoin will switch to Proof of Stake, then this is a very real development of Bitcoin, but when will this happen, while mining is still very profitable and presumably it will be profitable for a very long time, most likely we will have to switch to Proof of Stake when the price approaches 5-10 million dollars and not a single ASIC will be able to work in such a way that it brings profit, but the question is different, is it possible to do this technically and transfer the blockchain to Proof of Stake? and who can do it? |
|
|
|
Everything is possible, it is not necessary to look at the volatility chart, you can look at the growth chart and it is constant, I am not proving that this is a 100% guarantee of receiving money, ideally not only to hold but also to multiply using DCA and other methods, but the option of simple holding worked before, why shouldn't it work now? Well but the point I'm trying to make is that there is no constant growth. Constant in the sense that the exponential "growth rate" stays the same for several years. The volatility chart indeed is not showing the whole picture (volatility can also be ramp up by short-term variations), it only hints to a tendency. So I checked the yearly average price on Jan 1 (prices in $) and calculated a 4 year average from 2014 on: 2011: 0.30 2012: 5 2013: 13 2014: 770 2015: 315 2016: 428 2017: 1010 2018: 13500 2019: 3800 2020: 7200 2021: 28800 2022: 47000 2023: 16000 2024: 42000 2025: 94000 Source: https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-price.html#alltime2014: 197 2015: 275 (39%) 2016: 381 (38%) 2017: 630 (65%) 2018: 3810 (500%) 2019: 4680 (23%) 2020: 6377 (36%) 2021: 13325 (108%) 2022: 21700 (62%) 2023: 24750 (14%) 2024: 33450 (35%) 2025: 49750 (48%) Despite the varying numbers the tendency is very clear: the growth is decreasing. The 2018 growth of 500% was never reached again (the reason why we don't have higher values pre-2015 is that we don't have price data for pre-2011, we would have around 1000% otherwise for 2014). The well known rainbow charts show exactly the same tendency. most likely I want to say that people are mostly very lazy and do not want to do anything and most often they save up, buy an apartment and rent it out on a long-term lease stupidly without earning anything, this is more for such people.)
The thing is that a realistic view doesn't prove your idea: if you want passive income, an apartment is indeed better than the "HODL and sell Bitcoin" plan. The only advantage of BTC is that real estate will need work from your part. So with BTC you can be a bit lazier, but you won't get the same type of passive income. Again, taking things like lending into account is another story. So I didn't take into account the 500% growth, in fact, it was just developing then and was some kind of anomaly with super profits, mining equipment paid for itself even in 1 month, yes, that happened, but such moments happen almost once every hundred years, you shouldn't count on this for a long-term period, I don't think that I wrote some kind of unrealistic graph, I just don't understand how Bitcoin can develop without mining, do you know how it can exist with the blockchain turned off? I don't understand, but if the price is not always 100% once every 4 years, then the ASICs will be turned off and the blockchain will stop, if that happens, then Bitcoin will not grow at all, it will only always fall, do you want to say that everyone should forget about Bitcoin and that it is the end? Or how can it exist without growth and without mining? |
|
|
|
Topic Description:
This topic is dedicated to calculations and discussions on the strategy of holding Bitcoin to ensure long-term passive income.
Goal:
To calculate the amount of Bitcoin required so that, over time, one can start selling portions of it and receive a stable income of at least $100,000 per year for a minimum of 30 years.
Well, there is no doubt that bitcoin will increase in value over the years, though its ratio can be high or low in the coming years, but overall its price will always be increasing. But the problem is when you will sell bitcoin to get profits ? In order for passive income, you need to sell and get some money in hand. Investing in Bitcoin and not selling it for 10 or 15 years can be termed as passive income but it is an investment. For example, when you invest in any property and you keep it for many years until you sell it. So you will say that you are invested in property and it is not a passive income. Same logic stands if you are invested in long term in bitcoin BTC. Any spending of money to receive passive income from this in the future is always called an investment, there is no difference what you invest in, in real estate or in bitcoin, the result will always be the same = you receive passive income from this, many say that bitcoin can stop growing, but the same thing can happen with other investments, investing in an apartment you can receive less income due to the reasons for the decline in the real estate market and a decrease in income and very frequent repairs after tenants, You need to understand one thing, any investment is primarily a risk and it is proportionate to the risks, the riskier the investment, the greater the income, you have probably seen other predictions about bitcoin and they are 2-3 times more than the one I wrote (I do not pretend to have exact numbers, they are naturally approximate) but the fact remains that bitcoin can do this simply because it did this before and until the growth trend breaks (and it has not broken and is still working great) talk about what it won't grow as much as before, there's no point. |
|
|
|
Even if it is as you drew it still does not change anything, yes, the price can grow much more slowly but it will still grow and in any case, due to the constant growth, you can make a profit by simply selling a small part of the bitcoin each time and not reducing the value in dollars or reducing it slightly but over a very long period of time.
The point of my post is that there is no constant growth (in the sense of 1% daily or so) but rather a diminishing volatility which also affects the price growth. Look at this graph I posted some weeks ago:  (Source: Bitbo) That's why a constant passive income with "hodl and sell alone" is imo impossible to achieve. If you can make your Bitcoins "work" in some sense, e.g. investing or lending them, then it is another story. You could also try a hybrid of "invest + hold&sell". Everything is possible, it is not necessary to look at the volatility chart, you can look at the growth chart and it is constant, I am not proving that this is a 100% guarantee of receiving money, ideally not only to hold but also to multiply using DCA and other methods, but the option of simple holding worked before, why shouldn't it work now? Not everyone can do something like this and using DCA is essentially using additional money, not everyone has it either (although if there is money for 1 bitcoin then there should be money))) most likely I want to say that people are mostly very lazy and do not want to do anything and most often they save up, buy an apartment and rent it out on a long-term lease stupidly without earning anything, this is more for such people.) |
|
|
|
Alternative and more realistic calculation:
Situation 2025: You have 1 BTC and want to have, each 4 years, the same amount in USD. The rest will be sold or spent as "passive income".
Price evolution:
Let's say that we hit a 140,000 ATH this year and have then new ATHs each 4 years with 70% of the previous cycle profit.
- 2025: 140,000 (100% profit compared to previous ATH of 69,000$)
- 2029 240.000 $ (70% previous ATH - 0.7 * 100%)
- 2033 360.000 $ (49% previous ATH - 0.7 * 70%)
- 2037 480.000 $ (34% previous ATH - 0.7 * 49%)
- 2041 600.000 $ (24% previous ATH - 0.7 * 34%)
We simplify greatly here: let's say 2025-28, 2029-32 etc. the price is exactly the same and then it jumps to the next level.
You then need the following amount of BTC to hold your USD value. The difference between your current holdings and the holdings at the "last level" is the payout you can afford without losing USD value:
- 2025-28: 1 BTC - no payout
- 2029-32: 0.58 BTC - payout; 0.42 BTC in 4 years, 0.105 BTC per year, ~0.009 BTC per month (2200$)
- 2033-36: 0.38 BTC - payout: 0.2 BTC in 4 years, 0.05 BTC per year, ~0.005 BTC per month (1700$)
- 2037-40: 0.29 BTC - payout: 0.09 BTC in 4 years, 0.0225 BTC per year, ~0.002 BTC per month (960$)
- 2041-44: 0.23 BTC - payout: 0.06 BTC in 4 years, 0.015 per year, ~0.0011 BTC per month (660$)
So you get the idea, right? With a shrinking volatility there is no stable passive income, instead the value you can afford to pay out gets lower and lower. Nevertheless the idea may not be that bad.
Even if it is as you drew it still does not change anything, yes, the price can grow much more slowly but it will still grow and in any case, due to the constant growth, you can make a profit by simply selling a small part of the bitcoin each time and not reducing the value in dollars or reducing it slightly but over a very long period of time. |
|
|
|
This topic is dedicated to calculations and discussions on the strategy of holding Bitcoin to ensure long-term passive income.
Calculations like this are indeed interesting because they attempt to provide an overview of how 1 Bitcoin can be managed to become a source of long term income. However, it should be understood that models like this are highly dependent on assumptions about the future price of Bitcoin, which is inherently uncertain. I think it is healthier to maintain realistic expectations rather than relying entirely on projected figures. As i am doing now, i am accumulating Bitcoin using the DCA method with discretionary funds. I think this looks better and more realistic. In addition, i view Bitcoin not only as an investment asset but also as a form of protection against the decline in value of the assets we own. In this context, it helps ensure that the value of the money we have is not eroded by inflation and also provides an opportunity to profit from investment returns. In fact, it is up to everyone to decide, I support your ability to accumulate and control the amount using DCA But think about the fact that not everyone can do this, it is partly necessary to have a little knowledge of trading, personally I know how to trade and have a lot of experience, but I did not write about this because it will already be very tricky and difficult, This option is also impossible to guarantee in the long term, I will even say more, it is generally unrealistic to somehow calculate, With this calculation that I wrote, I included such things as the complexity of mining, halving and the minimum cost during mining to which bitcoin should not fall, I understand that this does not give a 100% guarantee that bitcoin will not do this, But if this happens and the price falls below the minimum cost of mining, then the blockchain will stop due to the fact that all ASIC miners will turn off due to the fact that bitcoin will be cheaper to buy than to mine. That's why I think that such a calculation, although crazy, can be counted on. |
|
|
|
Looks like this is just for fun because you estimate that bitcoin will be trading at almost $1m in 10 years, which would be very difficult to achieve and I'll tell you why. In the last 10 years, so from 2015 -2025 bitcoin's market cap grew from 3.5 B to 2.2 T USD. That would have to go up 10x in the next 10 years. meaning we'd need an inflow of additional 20 T USD!
To give you a perspective, when ETFs entered the scene in 2024, over the course of another ~20 months, the market cap grew by 1.2T, so we'd need to almost double that and not per 20 months, but every 12 months to reach 20T in 10 years. Where do you expect this money to come from?
Are we going to have a never ending bull season from now on with inflows raising exponentially?
What do you expect happens when we go into a bull season ending in $300k in the next 2 years? Because the way I see it we're going to have a reverse FOMO into a bear market because everybody will want to sell some.
Your math seems to count only for a constant growth over the next 10 years which isn't going to happen.
But why do you think that this will never happen and we achieved growth only because of the ETF? Perhaps the ETF helped the growth, there is always something that helps growth, and a very important point is the moral growth of the price, few people believed five years ago that bitcoin could reach 100,000, but it reached this mark and fixed itself at it, with 1 million it will also be very difficult, there are a lot of calculations where bitcoin reaches 1 million much earlier than 2036, but I do not believe in them because this is the same moral growth mark and it will also be very difficult to reach, but bitcoin will reach it or cease to exist, just think for yourself how bitcoin will work without constant growth, bitcoin cannot exist without mining and mining cannot exist without constant growth of bitcoin. |
|
|
|
|
Topic Description:
This topic is dedicated to calculations and discussions on the strategy of holding Bitcoin to ensure long-term passive income.
Goal:
To calculate the amount of Bitcoin required so that, over time, one can start selling portions of it and receive a stable income of at least $100,000 per year for a minimum of 30 years.
Within this discussion, it is suggested to consider:
The current Bitcoin price and its projected changes.
The amount of Bitcoin needed to generate a passive income of at least $100,000 per year.
The timeframe after which it is feasible to begin selling in order to ensure income for 30 years or more.
The optimal gradual selling strategy to reduce risks and tax liabilities.
The impact of inflation and cryptocurrency market fluctuations on the holding and selling strategy.
All calculations will be based on current market data, historical trends, and realistic Bitcoin growth scenarios.
Below is a table showing, if we start with 1 Bitcoin, from which year we could begin selling parts of Bitcoin to receive $100,000 per year for 30 years:
Bitcoin Sales Dynamics and Remaining Balance (30 Years of Income)
Year Price (USD) Sale (BTC) Remaining BTC
2036 960,000 0.1042 0.8958
2037 1,120,000 0.0893 0.8065
2038 1,280,000 0.0781 0.7284
2039 1,440,000 0.0694 0.6590
2040 1,920,000 0.0521 0.6069
2041 2,240,000 0.0446 0.5623
2042 2,560,000 0.0391 0.5232
2043 2,880,000 0.0347 0.4885
2044 3,840,000 0.0260 0.4625
2045 4,480,000 0.0223 0.4402
2046 5,120,000 0.0195 0.4207
2047 5,760,000 0.0174 0.4033
2048 7,680,000 0.0130 0.3903
2049 8,960,000 0.0112 0.3791
2050 10,240,000 0.0098 0.3693
2051 11,520,000 0.0087 0.3606
2052 15,360,000 0.0065 0.3541
2053 17,280,000 0.0058 0.3483
2054 19,200,000 0.0052 0.3431
2055 21,120,000 0.0047 0.3384
2056 30,720,000 0.0033 0.3351
2057 33,280,000 0.0030 0.3321
2058 35,840,000 0.0028 0.3293
2059 38,400,000 0.0026 0.3267
2060 61,440,000 0.0016 0.3251
2061 66,560,000 0.0015 0.3236
2062 71,680,000 0.0014 0.3222
2063 76,800,000 0.0013 0.3209
2064 122,880,000 0.0008 0.3201
2065 133,120,000 0.0008 0.3193
The sales are distributed in such a way that the remaining Bitcoin continues to appreciate in value, while each year’s income is ≥ $100,000, and 1 BTC is sufficient for ≥30 years of income.
If we take 0.1 BTC as an example, we would only be able to start selling Bitcoin to earn $100,000 per year starting in 2056.
Using these figures, we can roughly estimate the potential passive income for different amounts of Bitcoin and how many years we would need to wait before starting to receive a stable income.
It’s worth noting that this isn’t the easiest calculation, and getting an exact number is quite challenging. Bitcoin will remain in your portfolio over time. If we begin selling from 2036 at $100,000 per year, in roughly 10 years we could safely increase annual withdrawals to $200,000. Approximately every decade after that, it should be possible to gradually raise the amount of Bitcoin we spend in dollar terms, keeping a stable and growing passive income.
|
|
|
|
Topic Description: This topic is dedicated to calculations and discussions on the strategy of holding Bitcoin to ensure long-term passive income. Goal: To calculate the amount of Bitcoin required so that, over time, one can start selling portions of it and receive a stable income of at least $100,000 per year for a minimum of 30 years. Within this discussion, it is suggested to consider: The current Bitcoin price and its projected changes. The amount of Bitcoin needed to generate a passive income of at least $100,000 per year. The timeframe after which it is feasible to begin selling in order to ensure income for 30 years or more. The optimal gradual selling strategy to reduce risks and tax liabilities. The impact of inflation and cryptocurrency market fluctuations on the holding and selling strategy. All calculations will be based on current market data, historical trends, and realistic Bitcoin growth scenarios. Below is a table showing, if we start with 1 Bitcoin, from which year we could begin selling parts of Bitcoin to receive $100,000 per year for 30 years: Bitcoin Sales Dynamics and Remaining Balance (30 Years of Income) Year Price (USD) Sale (BTC) Remaining BTC
2036 960,000 0.1042 0.8958
2037 1,120,000 0.0893 0.8065
2038 1,280,000 0.0781 0.7284
2039 1,440,000 0.0694 0.6590
2040 1,920,000 0.0521 0.6069
2041 2,240,000 0.0446 0.5623
2042 2,560,000 0.0391 0.5232
2043 2,880,000 0.0347 0.4885
2044 3,840,000 0.0260 0.4625
2045 4,480,000 0.0223 0.4402
2046 5,120,000 0.0195 0.4207
2047 5,760,000 0.0174 0.4033
2048 7,680,000 0.0130 0.3903
2049 8,960,000 0.0112 0.3791
2050 10,240,000 0.0098 0.3693
2051 11,520,000 0.0087 0.3606
2052 15,360,000 0.0065 0.3541
2053 17,280,000 0.0058 0.3483
2054 19,200,000 0.0052 0.3431
2055 21,120,000 0.0047 0.3384
2056 30,720,000 0.0033 0.3351
2057 33,280,000 0.0030 0.3321
2058 35,840,000 0.0028 0.3293
2059 38,400,000 0.0026 0.3267
2060 61,440,000 0.0016 0.3251
2061 66,560,000 0.0015 0.3236
2062 71,680,000 0.0014 0.3222
2063 76,800,000 0.0013 0.3209
2064 122,880,000 0.0008 0.3201
2065 133,120,000 0.0008 0.3193
|
The sales are distributed in such a way that the remaining Bitcoin continues to appreciate in value, while each year’s income is ≥ $100,000, and 1 BTC is sufficient for ≥30 years of income. If we take 0.1 BTC as an example, we would only be able to start selling Bitcoin to earn $100,000 per year starting in 2056. Using these figures, we can roughly estimate the potential passive income for different amounts of Bitcoin and how many years we would need to wait before starting to receive a stable income. It’s worth noting that this isn’t the easiest calculation, and getting an exact number is quite challenging. Bitcoin will remain in your portfolio over time. If we begin selling from 2036 at $100,000 per year, in roughly 10 years we could safely increase annual withdrawals to $200,000. Approximately every decade after that, it should be possible to gradually raise the amount of Bitcoin we spend in dollar terms, keeping a stable and growing passive income. |
|
|
|
The the bounty will be managed by the xrpocean.com team. I have just been hired to post the bounty thread only. If you have any issues regarding this campaign, please contact social@xrpocean.com questions.I hope bounty hunters have paid keen attention to this disclaimer. So that you understand what you are applying for. I think everyone understands and no one is participating in this)) |
|
|
|
Сейчас со сбера пробно купил на 10к рублей usdt , благо там минималка 5к , всё прошло норм , минул за 10 получил свои 101 крипто-баксы) , чесно говоря удивлён такой минималкой , в последнее время многие задирают вообще от 500$  , даже пробно нельзя закинуть и протестить , тут походу шарят и понимают что людям нужен тест не на все деньги мира) , кор всё норм работает . |
|
|
|
Неплохой обменник. Удивился когда увидел порог обмена руб/btc от 2к+...незнаю как у них по комсе выходит, но нормально обменивают. Вроде и курс при этом для такой суммы норм.
Поддерживаю , сейчас делал обмен тоже руб\бтс на 3к руб и всё норм и курс тоже норм , не будем ломать голову почему и как)) главное что это есть и это работает . |
|
|
|
|
Вчера покупал через этот обменник Dash , курс отличный , лучше чем нашёл у других , обменяли минут за 15 , отличный вариант для закупки нужной крипты напрямую рублями , сохраню в закладки .
|
|
|
|
Очередной обменник, казалось бы новый, топик относительно недавно вышел, но как оказалось это не так.
Пролистал бест, они там есть и не мало положительных отзывов уже.
Интерфейс обменник похож на 2 обменника которыми я очень давно пользуюсь.
Ничего особенного тут нет как бы, нормальный средний сервис
Согласен что он обычный , да они все обычные , главное чтобы работал нормально , я сейчас 10usdt закинул и поменял на тенге , примерно 10 минут от захода на сайт до получения денег ушло , заметил одну отличительную фичу у этого обменника , у него в usdt наверное все сети поддерживаются , у большинства стандартно 3 сети а тут я насчитал их 9  , даже сеть тона есть , за что респект , я им сейчас пользуюсь чаще других , От меня держите положительный отзыв . |
|
|
|
|
Менял сегодня USDTtrc20 на trc и тут намного выгоднее чем менять внутри свапалки от трона , обменяли быстро .
|
|
|
|
|
Менял USDT на рубли , ждал около 3-4 минут , работает обменник довольно шустро , не боятся отзывы , на самом сайте предложено с десяток разных ресурсов как наш для написания отзыва за обмен , хороший подход , сразу видно что смелые и честные .
|
|
|
|
|
Пополняю тут рееr , очень удобно , работают быстро и самое главное с нормальным курсом , оставлю отзыв потому что меня устраивает этот обменник , буду пользоваться и далее .
|
|
|
|
|
Использовал этот обменник уже несколько раз , не заметил проблем с работой то что написали ранее с ддос атакой , возможно это было временно , курс меня вполне устраивает , так же и скорость обмена тоже на высоте , с карты руб покупал usdt , всё в течении 5-10 минут .
|
|
|
|
|
Менял - покупал сегодня 200usdt за рубли с тинькова , курс обмена вполне реальный , обмен произвели быстро .
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Rank: Member
Bech32 address: bc1qte3qpj4jrnymevhq4lgyxk68frs52a57t093vg
|
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
