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Thanks! I see it now too. Very sharp eye you have. I also cannot explain this sudden drop in amounts of bets placed. Could it be a whale dropping out? Are there any other possible explanations?
This might not be the reason for the sudden decrease in bets, however minimum bet size is limited so smaller bettors will must reduce the number of bets if they are to bet within their means. Isn't minimum bet already very low? Something around 0.01 btc? If yes, then is it not more likely that gamblers just reduce the amount of btc they bet, instead of playing less? Not if they like to feel like they're just playing a game, maybe? Bettors might not miss a few cents here and there, but bets of a dollar each soon stack up. Also, don't forget that when the exchange rate rockets, lots of people will tend to hoard while they wait for the exchange rate will level. This might reduce not just the amount they spend, but reduce spending events as well. Do you think declining # of bets might have something to do with this too? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=80312.msg1632751#msg1632751How do you mean? Well, I was just hunting for events that happened around mid March 2013 that correlated with the decline in transactions. The fork was on March 11, but I don't think that explains it. The comment by dooglus would seem to indicate another event occurred around this time -- a change in the betting structure. Maybe this change explains the decline in # of transactions? I don't really know what it implies and defer to you guys on this. I don't know much about SatoshiDice... just curious. |
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Thanks! I see it now too. Very sharp eye you have. I also cannot explain this sudden drop in amounts of bets placed. Could it be a whale dropping out? Are there any other possible explanations?
This might not be the reason for the sudden decrease in bets, however minimum bet size is limited so smaller bettors will must reduce the number of bets if they are to bet within their means. Isn't minimum bet already very low? Something around 0.01 btc? If yes, then is it not more likely that gamblers just reduce the amount of btc they bet, instead of playing less? Not if they like to feel like they're just playing a game, maybe? Bettors might not miss a few cents here and there, but bets of a dollar each soon stack up. Also, don't forget that when the exchange rate rockets, lots of people will tend to hoard while they wait for the exchange rate will level. This might reduce not just the amount they spend, but reduce spending events as well. Do you think declining # of bets might have something to do with this too? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=80312.msg1632751#msg1632751 |
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Just a quick question.
I noticed that SatoshiDice # of bets declined dramatically in the middle of March from around 20k-25k to 15k. Since then its been hovering 15k +/- 5k Can anyone tell me why this happened?
One reason may be that the price of BTC rose to much higher levels during that time. What people are willing to bet may be the same, but the amount of BTC that represents is much smaller with a high exchange rate. .b That could be. But the change in # of bets is discontinuous and sudden, not gradual. It seems odd to me that on March 15-17, all bettors suddenly decided to reduce # of bets. As BTC rises, you'd assume that bettors would keep the real value of their betting constant through a gradual combination of decreasing bet quantity and decreasing bet size. Very good question. Thanks for bringing that up. How have you been able to discover this? Can that be seen on dooglus charts? Or do you keep track of sdice in sheet with daily numbers, deducted from dooglus charts? I pulled the numbers off of SatoshiDice's public statments on Google docs: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aiec3-Eo_yO5dHB2dVdiaEltUHAtTWlBcFhXQVBYeGc#gid=12 |
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Just a quick question.
I noticed that SatoshiDice # of bets declined dramatically in the middle of March from around 20k-25k to 15k. Since then its been hovering 15k +/- 5k Can anyone tell me why this happened?
One reason may be that the price of BTC rose to much higher levels during that time. What people are willing to bet may be the same, but the amount of BTC that represents is much smaller with a high exchange rate. .b That could be. But the change in # of bets is discontinuous and sudden, not gradual. It seems odd to me that on March 15-17, all bettors suddenly decided to reduce # of bets. As BTC rises, you'd assume that bettors would keep the real value of their betting constant through a gradual combination of decreasing bet quantity and decreasing bet size. |
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Just a quick question.
I noticed that SatoshiDice # of bets declined dramatically in the middle of March from around 20k-25k to 15k. Since then its been hovering 15k +/- 5k Can anyone tell me why this happened?
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Are FAV's divisible? Can we split them up into smaller units? What does 0.234 FAVs mean?
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Just seems weird to me that if people can get 50,000 XRP for free, why the market price for 50,000 XRP is ~$30-35.
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The price of XRP has roughly tripled
Has OpenCoin stopped giving away free XRP? Is that why? |
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How do we know that trades have happened in all these markets? I haven't been able to find a list of trades consummated.
Order book changes and trades are translated to #ripple-market irc channel. Thanks. How do I interpret the messeges? For instance, what does the following mean: ripplebot> CAP BTC=299.2456046343227: bitstamp=194.5913594790761 weex=104.6542451552466 |
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Thanks for that tip. Now I can see the BTC/BTC market.
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This is not entirely correct, the most active (over-the-counter) market is right here on Bitcointalk forum. And I am the most active dealer of this market, with more than million XRP going through my hands just last week.  If someone wants to trade for IOUs inside Ripple, there are currently 4 active markets: BTC/XRP bitstamp (most liquid) BTC/XRP weex (bigger spreads, but better deals sometimes) USD/XRP bitstamp USD/BTC bitstamp Trades happened in all these markets, and USD/BTC bitstamp is following MtGox price movements to a reasonable extent, even though spreads are not that good. All in all, Ripple gateway order books have good potential to develop into full-blown currency exchanges over time. They are just not there yet, the volume is minuscule and you're better off trading OTC here on Bitcointalk at the moment. How do we know that trades have happened in all these markets? I haven't been able to find a list of trades consummated. |
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You can type any currency pair you want into the trade dropdown. Speaking of which, can anybody else see my BTC/BTC trade? The client makes it a puzzle to set up the trade correctly, but I don't see a reason it shouldn't work.
BTC/BTC? How do you see that market... I can't see that currency pair. Once I select an issuer of base currency, I cannot change the secondary currency other than by selecting a currency pair from the drop-down which does not contain BTC/BTC. I think what he's saying is that he synthesized that pair by looking at BTCwee/XRP and BTCbitstamp/XRP. When you cancel out XRP, it gives you BCTwee/BCTbitstamp. I'm not sure why we can't see that pair directly, though. We can already see crosses between different IOU issuers, BTCbitstamp/USDwee, for instance, so why not BTCx/BTCy crosses? |
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By requiring ripple accounts to have at least 200 XRP for it to be functioning, OpenCoin Inc (who I feel is hardly open) is creating an artificial demand for the premined XRP (Ripples). This is akin to tax required in the nation's fiat currency to artificially create use cases for that currency.
Good point. XRP is form of chartal money. It's like a coupon. BTC, on the other hand, is entirely a boot strap asset. The good thing about XRP's chartal nature is that as long as Ripple is being used, there will always be some sort of core non-monetary demand to anchor XRP's price when it falls. BTC doesn't have a non-monetary component so it lacks an anchor to the downside. No reason it can't hit 0. |
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Works for me now too.
I see that the Wee BTC IOU discount has disappeared too.
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What's up with the discount on WeExchange's Bitcoin IOUs?
So far as I know, no one was able to successfully withdraw BTC via Weex. I've tried to deposit BTC from Ripple to Weex following their instructions. BTC just disappeared from my Ripple wallet and did not appear at Weex account. This explains the discount I guess - you can withdraw Bitstamp BTC IOUs, but Weex BTC IOUs are mostly useless until this issue is resolved. Just tried to redeem a 0.02 Weex BTC IOU. No response. Redeeming Bitstamp IOUs happens in seconds. If I am in a trust circle with someone who's extended trust to both Weex and Bistamp, does that mean I can use this person to transfer Weex BTC IOUs to Bitstamp on a one-for-one basis? |
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What's up with the discount on WeExchange's Bitcoin IOUs?
In the client's internal BTC/XRP market, I can buy BTC/Bitstamp for 79,990 XRP.
But I can buy BTC/WeExchange for just 44,000 XRP. That's almost half the price. Is WeExchange not redeeming at the moment? That's the only thing I can think that would cause them to trade at such a large discount. Which would explain the above complaints.
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You don't need to trust anybody to see the order book – that information is public, and you just need to know the issuer address. You only need to trust them to receive the IOU's they issue, which is more or less a prerequisite to trading them. (This is important, because trusting two gateways without setting any other options amounts to agreeing to serve as a free liquidity provider, which may not be your intention.)
For reference, WeExchange's issuer address is rpvfJ4mR6QQAeogpXEKnuyGBx8mYCSnYZi. (And if you're interested in the fuzzy line between user and gateway, you can set the issuer to rpH3zuMch2GrrYX724xGWwbMGwiQ5RbSAU to see the order book for molecular's BTC IOU's. Be sure you understand what you're doing if you buy any.)
Taking a look at the order books for BTC/XRP. So if I want to buy a Bitstamp BTC I've got to pay 68,000 XRP. If I buy molecular's BTC I'm only paying 60,000 XRP. That's the market discount on a non-Bitstamp BTC IOU... for the moment. Not all IOUs are created equal, I guess. |
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I registered on ripple.com and tried to login again next day. Payward Wallet not found (Username / Password is wrong) I could login/restore my account by entering the secret key. Maybe my "account" is saved in a cookie, which are deleted daily..? I copied all ripple addresses in this thread here until now: bitstamp rvYAfWj5gh67oV6fW32ZzP3Aw4Eubs59B
molecular rpH3zuMch2GrrYX724xGWwbMGwiQ5RbSAU
Severian rDqSvk6fRhKq5tSW7GpWFFHG5pG2XE3mtR
gweedo rKFX2Gvk4jLtgEGMC2qDmMi18Zw4bewrjK
Mageant rPDT5apJsfy8Jbz3M8jXzXskMsKAANhM9p
lebing rJFGHvCtpPrftTmeNAs8bYy5xUeTaxCD5t
herzmeister rUdPvX9YN1NwyniwiJeSW6y3YKZL84gsB6
ribuck ra3a5cfr83b5FTh1YDURqWQh8HTbHEwdyD
Spekulatius rNHf9nnX4JgHferxjRxmapDev7mWQZ6XXd
Bitobsessed rKfd86S25PUdVquk41xedH5jNX4bZ8DiA7
Akka r9RpJFpD6vkKhgHhrRjkgofSbNsE1oYFZ1
bbit rB7qiwEDrcMShUN3Jd8LwXr4RJ7RWBaQu8
ryanAC rJA6mGHsw5yCynLFRe3rjGqaCMk2YpmuMy
phelix rM3puGNYNQTWuqsQpkzxSpmWFqGGuY29Vb
kokojie rNexqWdz7q16e6PPBDsD2XxxzFS64SAEYS
Peter Lambert rGsLivkDjTZHFQ8oV2h81uTcbTpgjEaEY7
jorgen rQay7bQ3XoZcT6E3c8uDopZdnWaMBxWea2
Belkaar rJVshcxcxSAXkgzg1PiUQWr5TodTNAETva
grondilu rpuebQXsR7kAst5yidD6fmGmJHD4niXzbo
Timo Y rG8VFQPaJB2gNjx29Et1wKUJettQP1eLmk
Melbustus rKAw7uHrdUUEqtfFhBBHe6unyh57PLpCc4
Aahzman r9TWUUN8duW1rDqJ2yz2wjksc8A9BpxPUh
AlexNeto rp3Papsq3aXf3gswfgfaqgegjLAEVaw8V1
thoughtcourier rn7iD6DpnCwH8kjJDCsENibMXkgmJkRCRz
znort987 rnozMbmRYfqvn15iBFNeeRJs95gagR2B46
RaTTuS rw65MQQDpWQYGxFEtcQk3r6dpeZ2gx5zff
romerun rU3cgYfpu9jedq8GnW43ArEntsWTD6Sg4n
PRab rEdaspCuZQWrxrGiGMQW3iPXjmEnfUxkqN
With this being mine: Ente rNEtVs4kNeESF5HbWCDZMYcWwKZ5iKwUEr However, with a million addresses being published in the giveaway thread a list doesn't seem to be of any use at all. However #2, I don't know what exactly I want to achieve with my address being stated here.. However #3, I still am undecided how to use ripple now. Trust everyone with 0.01 BTC? Trust the known veterans with 1 BTC? Trust my real-life buddies with 100 BTC? Is ripple of any use for me anyway, concerning gateways? Will I (and everyone else here) be scammed to death? Ah, I didn't even start with questions concerning opencoin and XRPs. More questions every other minute!  Ente I'm fooling around with Ripple too. The list is long, so I'm just going to add the top 3 people from that list and grant .05 BTC trust to each. My ripple address is rMpB2AsrDTdbynCB48hg8MwHLD4wtXJfRJ Different question. I've granted 0.6 BTC trust to bitstamp and hold 0.3 BTC/bitstamp. I was fooling around and dropped my trust to bitstamp from 0.6 BTC to 0.2. My account showed that I still held 0.3 BTC/bitstamp, exceeding my trust limit. Shouldn't lowering trust levels below existing IOUs owned have triggered some process whereby 0.1 BTC/bitstamp was immediately returned to bitstamp and converted into BTC, thereby bringing my balance in line with trust granted? |
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rMpB2AsrDTdbynCB48hg8MwHLD4wtXJfRJ
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i dont see why not to 'ripple-trust' me  Thanx Just remember, if you extend $5 in trust to someone, they can wind up owing you $5. If you don't have a settlement agreement with them, that could mean that $5 you intended to be able to spend or cash out is now a worthless IOU. Trust in Ripple is a powerful thing. Are settlement agreements always negotiated externally, ie. by word of mouth? Or are they written into the public ledger? |
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