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1  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: June 18, 2015, 05:04:06 AM
Oleganza arguing with me that Bitcoin has already achieved gold status and can do so w/o more scaling.  c'mon, i don't even argue that.  i say it is in the process of doing so:

https://twitter.com/oleganza/status/611298778667220992

The reason the Gold bug's dream is never realized, despite the fact that all of the monetary abuses they predicted came true, is simply because gold is not directly used in day to day transactions. If something is not used in day to day transactions, it is not viewed as money.

CBs have gotten away with their abuses simply because they outlawed real money alternatives to fiat for long enough that the public lost memory of the very existence of alternatives to CB money. Everyone sees the dollar/euro/pound/yen as money because they use them every day, so no one runs away from these mechanisms no matter how they are abused. What would they run to?

The only way to make something else be viewed as money, is if it is used as money in day to day transactions. Using something and knowing others will accept it a basic requirement here. Gold lost that usage which is why it has not come back.

This is what is so frustrating about those blocking the blocksize increase. If people can't use bitcoin directly, the entire project is doomed to a fate worse than gold.

Yes you bring up an important point.
A currency that is not used day to day, has no mindshare which results in low liquidity, which tarnishes it's attractiveness as a store of value. Yet gold has tremendous value despite it's lack of use as a medium of exchange. This has to do with it's scarcity and immunity to control from any actor. Bitcoin tries to emulate the immunity to control property by being decentralised.

It is important to remember that Bitcoin the currency can function off the blockchain in numerous ways. Just as every USD transaction does not occur on the Fed's ledger, all bitcoin txns do not need to be on the blockchain. It is extremely wasteful to do so in a decentralised system where every node has to download/store & verify every txn.
This is already true with many web wallets(Coinbase), exchanges, changetip, etc...
Yet all these services promote the use of Bitcoin the currency and make it useful.

Even at 7 tps, bitcoin already has more actual txns than gold has today.
Im not saying that the anti-20MBers are against any increase in blocksize, i think we all agree it will need to be raised. We are merely concerned with more efficient use of the blockchain where it is used more for settlement while other trustless offchain solutions are developed and offload frequent and small txns off the blockchain.

Raising the blocksize too fast and too soon will disincentivise the creation of these trustless offchain solutions and risk centralising bitcoin txn validation. At a certain point where only a small number of entities can validate txns, bitcoin becomes centralised, regulated, controlled. And without decentralisation, there is no point to bitcoin, we might as well use a standard database and trust someone.
2  Economy / Economics / Re: Stephen Reed's Million Dollar Logistic Model on: June 06, 2014, 06:26:58 AM
I've been following this thread for some time and think its wonderful work.

However, in my opinion atleast, the $1 million maximum price is too conservative.
Based on the assumption of Bitcoin supplanting all government currencies alone, which on last check M2 was ~$60 trillion would imply a BTC price of about $3 million each.

Now, where it really gets interesting is if you start to factor in that monetary inflation has been pretty out of whack since the late 90s (or arguably since 1971 after the world went off the gold standard), fuelling the Dot Com/Housing bubbles and more importantly, altering people's saving/investment behaviour. Almost any productive individual today (below 50) has lived their entire lives watching prices of almost everything around them go up consistently, whether it be groceries, houses, stock market, PMs. Even though the majority may not understand the nature of inflation or what causes it, they do understand that saving money in the bank is inferior to "investing" in other asset classes. "Investing" because most of them do not actually invest based on fundamentals but buy the said assets simply because they have shown to reliably appreciate year after year in nominal terms. Many of these "investors" think they are making good investments when they watch their nominal portfolios rise when infact all they have discovered is an asset to hedge against inflation.

Before 2008, the majority of people who were risk adverse may have been content with keeping money in the bank and losing 3-5% in inflation year after year in return for less risk. However after the Lehman collapse and the onslaught of QE/money printing around the world, monetary inflation rates have exploded and asset classes like equities, bonds(it would appear only CBs are buying this) and real estate have kept up with the money printing. It could be argued that since 2008, fiat has been reduced to merely a transactional and immediate liquidity needs type of asset for more people than ever before. Real Estate(see China ghost cities), equities and PMs have now taken over the additional role of long term store of value and are therefore vulnerable.

Vulnerable to Bitcoin, which with its dual properties of being an excellent transactional currency and store of value.
Consider the following:

Global M2  ~$60 trillion
Offshore wealth   ~$30 trillion
Speculative Real Estate  ~$30 trillion??
PMs ~$8 trillion

There are valid arguments to be made that Bitcoin could draw capital from all of them to a significant degree. If we assume that Bitcoin replaces all fiat and subsumes 50% of the other assets, we are looking at a maximum valuation of $4 million to $5 million in today's dollars.
3  Economy / Speculation / Re: After five years, has Bitcoin finally reached price stability? on: May 23, 2014, 05:51:44 PM
After five years, has Bitcoin finally reached price stability?

You must be new around here...

4  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: [ANN] FYB-SG Singapore's First Bitcoin Exchange on: February 21, 2014, 06:53:16 AM
Deposits to the exchange require 3 confirmations because the amounts are not within our control.
5  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: [ANN] FYB-SG Singapore's First Bitcoin Exchange on: February 20, 2014, 02:43:17 PM
Help help check if BTC transaction cleared?
Is it automatic?
1PNWLrW2j1UwTyCx1jKNXFENivAE3ASQoz

Are you referring to withdrawal or Deposit?
Both should be automatic.

OK, thanks. Somehow quite slow. I was doing an immediate transaction something like cash & carry. The "cash" aka btc took too long to even show up.

I switch to blockchain and it was faster.

But still, I don't see how bitcoin can be used to pay restaurant bill or buy ice-cream; unless the transaction can afford to wait for the confirmations like 10-20 minutes delay. Undecided

Transactions usually propagate and show up in 2-5 seconds, that is all the time needed. Its not really necessary to wait for confirmations for low value transactions, more so if the transaction happens in a physical setting where the payer is seen by multiple people as well as CCTVs.

There is also some work being done for the QT Client to detect double spend attempts and warn the merchant immediately, the window for a double spend attempt is a few seconds at best, so the merchant can wait for 5-10 seconds to see if there was any double spend attempt and proceed without worrying about confirmation. https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/pull/3354
6  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: [ANN] FYB-SG Singapore's First Bitcoin Exchange on: February 19, 2014, 02:38:51 PM
Help help check if BTC transaction cleared?
Is it automatic?
1PNWLrW2j1UwTyCx1jKNXFENivAE3ASQoz

Are you referring to withdrawal or Deposit?
Both should be automatic.
7  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: [ANN] FYB-SG Singapore's First Bitcoin Exchange on: February 14, 2014, 07:04:14 AM
Our backend is perfectly fine and not affected by the transaction malleability issue.

The problem is that our bitcoin client is reporting wrong balances and sometimes generating transactions from invalid outputs which will never be confirmed. According to gavin, should be soon. See https://twitter.com/gavinandresen/status/434148075276206080
8  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: [ANN] FYB-SG Singapore's First Bitcoin Exchange on: January 08, 2014, 01:02:31 PM
I generally try to avoid talking about what we go through behind the scenes, but since you have asked and this forum is generally composed of more knowledgeable people, ill spill some.

Generally, businesswise things are starting to pick up, although the Bitcoin userbase per capita in Singapore is one the lowest globally amongst developed English speaking countries (see http://www.anonymousbitcoinbook.com/2013/09/16/where-is-bitcoin-most-popular/). Add the small population and we are not profitable yet, but it is close to the point of being sustainable.

Banks - It is starting to become common amongst the Bitcoin startup scene to hear DBS denying any Bitcoin related companies an account. I guess they are the first amongst the  local banks to see Bitcoin as a threat, although it is naive of them to think that denying bank accounts will hamper bitcoin adoption.
Bank accounts wise, it is a royal pain to obtain and use corporate bank accounts. The paperwork and time to get setup is plain ridiculous(It took close to 3 weeks to get our current account setup). Plus having additional bank accounts further complicates accounting. However if there is sufficient demand for a particular bank, we will consider it.

Fraud - Surprisingly there has been 0 issues of fraud so far. There are plenty of reports online of exchanges being defrauded by customers reversing deposits after buying & withdrawing bitcoins, sometimes causing the exchanges to go bust. (http://bitcoinmoney.com/post/8350754054/bank-transfer-reversals)
This is one of the things that the local banking system has done right, it is extremely difficult to reverse a bank transfer.

Regulators/Regulations - Lets just say that the cost and time spent on dealing with this is more than it took to develop the exchange. It has been a first hand experience for me on how Governments can sabotage their own country's growth by discouraging business startups with unnecessary regulations.

On a side note, i will be interviewed on 93.8 tomorrow(Thursday) 5:15pm.

9  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Do you really think governments will allow a 500 billion dollar crypto-economy? on: December 27, 2013, 03:16:56 PM
The question is not whether governments will allow a $X bitcoin economy, the question is whether Bitcoin will allow oversized governments to exist and retain the kind of power they currently do.


....and we have the first jap-anime inclined fool chiming in with deluded sense of 'power' they hold.

Why don't you go hang in chinese and russian government custody with the weaboo kiddy snowden and find out life doesn't work out like a shounen manga/comic?


REALISTIC discussions.

Instead of calling contributors to your thread fools, why don't you go study history and quote 1 example of a power being successful in stopping the adoption of a technology they did not like?
10  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Do you really think governments will allow a 500 billion dollar crypto-economy? on: December 27, 2013, 01:37:24 PM
The question is not whether governments will allow a $X bitcoin economy, the question is whether Bitcoin will allow oversized governments to exist and retain the kind of power they currently do.
11  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: [ANN] FYB-SG Singapore's First Bitcoin Exchange on: December 06, 2013, 03:44:48 AM
Will send out in next few hours, dont worry.
12  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: [ANN] FYB-SG Singapore's First Bitcoin Exchange on: November 10, 2013, 07:40:58 AM
We are required by regulations to retain the files.

Same when you open any account at a bank/brokerage.
13  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: [ANN] FYB-SG Singapore's First Bitcoin Exchange on: November 10, 2013, 07:32:30 AM
Compulsory to upload documents, but how is that managed?

What do you mean by how is that managed?
14  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: [ANN] FYB-SG Singapore's First Bitcoin Exchange on: September 12, 2013, 04:22:45 AM
@nagato, will you be at the Singapore bitcoin meetup later?

Yes, ill be there.
15  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: [ANN] FYB-SG Singapore's First Bitcoin Exchange on: September 09, 2013, 11:52:03 AM
Minor feature request: can the bank account info be stored, saving a bit on typing? Maybe have one default and one blank in case of temporary changes.


Ill add it to my TODO list.
I have a fulltime job as well, so between that and the running of the exchange, i get very little time to work on that list.
16  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: [ANN] FYB-SG Singapore's First Bitcoin Exchange on: September 09, 2013, 06:14:01 AM
I read somewhere the Google has released a fix for disappearing keys after the update.

You will have to email me to disable 2FA.
17  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: [ANN] FYB-SG Singapore's First Bitcoin Exchange on: September 03, 2013, 03:08:01 AM
Patience.
It's in the works.
18  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: [ANN] FYB-SG Singapore's First Bitcoin Exchange on: August 22, 2013, 03:16:06 AM
Murphy's Law at work
Never had much problems appear until im in reservist.

Having some network issues, hopefully its sorted now.
19  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: [ANN] FYB-SG Singapore's First Bitcoin Exchange on: August 12, 2013, 05:40:36 AM
Server crashed around 7am today, brought it up by 915am.
Sorry for any inconvenience.
20  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: [ANN] FYB-SG Singapore's First Bitcoin Exchange on: July 16, 2013, 07:20:39 AM
https://www.fybse.se/

Congrats on your expansion! Cheesy Cheesy

Thanks.
Its actually a franchise agreement, im not handling the running and day to day operations.

franchise ? So I guess you are getting royalties from your coding, UI, etc.
 Smiley

Ya, i provide the platform/hosting while they handle legal/operational issues.
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