I'm speculating on the Litecoin, and I'd just like to share my thinking with the community -- perhaps it will make some of you a pretty penny too...

Sooner or later ASICs are coming to the Bitcoin world. And when they do tremendous hashing power can be had for cheap... much cheaper than a GPU. Even a little chip like BFL's "Jalapeno" retailing for $169-ish makes a GPU look like a kid's toy. Not only that, but ASICs will use minute amounts of electricity in proportion to their hash rates. So not only will miners get more hashing power for their buck, but running systems with insane amounts of hashing power will be much cheaper. And the only logical conclusion to draw from this is that mining difficulty will sky-rocket, and GPUs will no longer be suitable for mining... They simply cost too much for too little hash-power, and they consume too much energy and produce too much heat.

The ASICs are going to put GPU miners out of business almost over-night. Many people are running not just one or two GPUs but entire arrays of machines with multiple GPUs... Thus there will be a lot of bored young men with nothing to do in possession of a monstrous amount of hashing power. So what else will there be left to do but cut their losses and get out of the business, OR start mining Litecoin? That's precisely what's going to happen: Litecoin will become the scene for GPU miners looking to entertain themselves and make some profit.

As people migrate to Litecoin mining the user-base for Litecoin is going to expand and the demand for Litecoin will start rising. With a much bigger network of miners and traders, and thus more liquidity, more regular people are going to use Litecoin. Speculators will also start buying bundles of Litecoin in anticipation of more demand and a bigger user-base. This could trigger and parabolic move in the exchange rate and re-create the conditions of Bitcoin's early spike to $30... after all, I think Litecoin's designers' goal was not only to create a cheaper and more plentiful currency but to recreate the conditions that made many early adopters of Bitcoin instant millionaires. I may not get the exchange rate bubble I'm hoping for, but I'm quite confident Litecoin is going to soon be on the rise.

I won't make any predictions about the long-term future or viability of Litecoin, as it's too early to tell (though I think it has some potential). But I've been trading stocks, futures/commodities, options and FOREX for years and I "feel" a big move looming on the horizon. I've already bought some small quantities of Litecoin here and there, and I'll be adding to my position. I also have a very bullish view on Bitcoin, but as a larger and more liquid market I think it has less potential to move really big really fast. It feels like the Litecoin designers succeeded in their "Litecoin is to silver as Bitcoin is to gold" concept -- Litecoin will provide the type of trader and speculator-friendly volatility guys like me are looking for.

So don't run out and get a second mortgage on your home and put it all on Litecoin. That would be stupid. But I think it wise to buy a little here and there and see how it plays out. Use some common sense in your risk management and follow the rules of speculation and you will come out fine.

Cheers! 

--ATC--