But even if at 36,780,534 difficulty later on (guess) in the game you'd be making $10-12 a day per BFL Asic single which would take 120-140 days to break even (even considering power costs for me).
Based on the number of preorders, the difficulty will more likely be closer to 134,807,280
Just out of curiosity, how are you calculating this?
It would help me decide how much I'm willing to spend if I could calculate it myself.
With half of money you are ready to invest buy bitcoins. With other half, wait until ASICs are in the game for at least few months.
After that, you will be able to better predict future BTC price trends, and make a decision about selling all, buying more bitcoins or
jumping onto miner train.
After that, you will be able to better predict future BTC price trends, and make a decision about selling all, buying more bitcoins or
jumping onto miner train.
That is what I was leaning towards; buy one ASIC for about 1100 USD and put around the same amount into bitcoin and see how much the bitcoin outperforms the mining, as an experiment.
Also, does anyone know a reasonable way of estimating how much the value of bitcoin is likely to appreciate in a year from now?