Dont think there is a real deduction on the price... however price will tend to find a new equillibrium

the current sideways price is a good indicator especially after the bitcoin difficulty jumping 3 fold in 3 months no thanks to new tech in bitcoin mining side...

if we base it on past performance of bitcoin... we know speculation is high so we've seen it jump to 1000$... bear in mind this wasnt at a block halving also the difficulty was very low compared to today.

Now bitcoin is gaining momentum which is great... On my side of the world bitcoin has be an inflation buster... we see it holding value especially in emerging economies. We know the CNY has been manipulated to fufill government needs as for the USD its the reserve currency of the world and then you have the EUR and GBP which with whats happeing in Europe at the mo' might come under pressure.

so.. for me price should be stable as long as hasrate of the network is stable and doesnt jump... if the hash rate jumps you can bet miners are gonna sell the coins for more to cover costs...

and the halving... well this is interesting as this is forced mathematically supply constraint i.e forced value holding mechanism..

Like I said earlier Miners wanna get paid... and if they just have to take the same amount they taking now the price would have to double and be stable just to be the same  $$ dollar wise take home money as it is now... FYI allot of miners have upgraded their equipment that wouldnt have had all their ROI back before the halving.

now lets say price stays the same and the block reward halves... what this would mean is some miners would stop validating transactions hasrate comes down... but all of this make no difference in dollar terms because a block is generated evey 10 min so the revenue per day for miners is caped per day... at 1800 bitcoins at $420 instead of 3600 at $420 you see the problem here...

transaction volumes will still be the same so this transistion period will see lag on the network unless price goes up and the miners stay.

All interesting factors that will influence price.

For me at the halving or the weeks before, the bitcoin price is gonna move all over the place In excess of $1000 to $1500 and recheck back down ofter profit taking at around $900 -$800 and then equalise over 6 months to about $700. after the guys have got their equiment paid up.

But if their is an economic crash like 2008 then its gonna equalise alot higher.. not becuase bitcoin has appreciated but becuase the other currencies have depreciated...

just my 5 satoshies

I suspect we might only see the 16nm chips later a lot later (Moors law), if the S7 launched at $1800 what will an equivenlent launch, with the same 1290 wattage 16nm chip be... which would equate to +- 12th (thumb sucking fugure).... plus a halving... unless the bitcoin price goes up I think alot of people are gonna stay put till the halving and see what happens bitfury especially.... think about it they must have invested a pretty top dollar to get into the bitcoin chip manufacturing space. If they make the chips at all.... If a data center cost +- $3'000'000... using between 1mw to 2 mw of power imagine the setup of the factory to build those things... this isnt a joke and not anyone is gonna jump in knowing the halving is comming and uncertinty on the price of bitcoin.... yeah we all assume it will go up but what if allot of people dump it on to the market and the price goes back to just $200 even $300... a lot of people will be out

If they were gonna launch miner to the public they would have done it already so those "big clients" could at least get their ROI before the halving... so at leat they go in with the data center paid up and time to make profit...

something tells me there arent many takers just check the hashrate the past month.... its been hovering between 1300 ph and 1000ph with massive drop offs... this isnt the ususal drop off like you see on the S7's... if they are testing (bear in mind im only using the hashing chart to make this analagy) they could be having problems (an assumption)... ive been seing 20-30 % variation in total network hash.....

have a look for yourself
https://blockchain.info/de/charts/hash-rate


certainly its interesting times.... and we must keep on mining till the market changes up or down

*********side note playing with figures

if a bitfury data center cost $3000'000-00 (I think Im not far off) for 12ph.... that equates to $250 per TH so in antminer terms $1175. for the equivanlent antminer with 16nm chips... vs $665 for 28nm... hmmm if antminers come down to $580 might be interesting lol...

but alas the one who will alway be in the game are the ones who dont have to pay for electricity....

So the lesson "go solar" hahaha

Sorry I need to understand something here... as a noob

2mb blocks at current difficulty... takes twice as long to process = more energy, more cost, angry miners... wouldnt the bitcoin network adjust the difficulty accordingly. i.e 1mb with 160 difficulty(didnt feel like typing the rest of the numbers) would be the same as 2mb with 80...

Resource usage would stay the same in terms of electricity. transaction fees stay the same per transaction yet miners would get a little more... i.e you not charging the client more just the same...but the batch done at a time is more so hence you get more.

Now about the nodes... someone using dial up connection as a node is already obsolete... and yes usually they in the bum fuck of no where
BUT the guys in the bum fuck of nowhere use cell phones usually with 3G... and if its really remote gsm.... but then again how many transaction are happening in gsm only areas???.... realistically speaking.

Maybe cell phones can be adopted as node (just a thought)....

no need to fork.. fork for what... just because you have increased demand for a product or service you dont go start a whole new company... you increase production capacity... plain stupid idea to run two seperate entities for the same thing and compete against one another???...

Will groups be left behind.. YES... it happens in business... we see it happen with miners... the main worry is with nodes.. and the reasn that would happen is simple... nodes arent getting paid... if there was remuneration for nodes I think you would get a spike in just nodes another thought...

just my useless 5c

sweet