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Re: The spending problem is totally irrelevant.
uh, maybe. The current valuation seems to depend on the utility curves of a rather small population, the hoarders. I was wondering if there is a way to predict changes in the number of btc that enter the marketplace, to be held by new hoarders. Then your valuation theory might have some predictive skill.
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Re: value is fictional
Yes, sure. Value is fictional in the sense that it arises from a subjectivity. But a practical or useful valuation arises from a collective subjectivity, so some elements of it are more-or-less objective.
Re: the thought experiment
Yes, I wanted to have about $2K on hand (back in 1989). But this relates to the time issue -- I wanted a couple of months of living expenses. This seems like a rational approach. Maybe it is worth working out some consequences.
Currently, it looks like there are on the order of a hundred people that are active readers of this forum. Everyone is different, but I would guess, on average, this group of people would like, say $100K of btc buying power as insurance against hyperinflation of the USD. [I am wildly extrapolating from my current motivation to ~hold~ a given amount of btc. [Of course, I have other reasons for spending btc and participating otherwise.]] Based on this logic, then the market cap of btc should be 100*100K, or only about $10M. My estimate that there are 100 people like me is wrong, but it probably isn't off by more than a factor of 10. This puts the current price of btc at about $100/13 = $8/btc. Even if there are 10000 people chasing the 13M btc for $100K each, the price would be $80/btc.
Thus, either the price if btc is horribly over-valued now, or there is another group of people with a different motivation who have established the valuation. I speculate that there is a group of early adopters who feel they are nominally rich, and can't bare the thought of loosing their stash. If there are 1000 people like me, but only 1M btc in circulation (at the current price), then the price could be in the $500 to $1000 per btc range. This seems plausible to me. I don't have much of a stash, but I've only spent about 1/50 of the btc I've bought [actually, I guess I've spent about 1/4 of what I bought; but I've spent none of what I mined. Interesting psychology there.].
But do you think the hoarders will spend more freely if the valuation increases, or do you think they'll spend more freely if the valuation decreases?
-pbtc
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Sorry to be joining the conversation so late. I read the original post a couple of days ago, and it took a while to digest.
I think the OP presents a clear and valid discussion of the value problem, as far as it goes. But it obviously skirts the question of interest to most people, which might be phrased as, "What is a logical or rational price/utility curve?"
If you have a basis for identifying irrational price curves, then you could, in principle, hypothesize an "investment strategy," which might be as simple a deciding to consume later, or it might evolve into a more complex strategy of opponent modeling and exploiting irrational prices within a market.
I don't think this contradicts the OP's points, but maybe it clarifies some of the practical import of people's urge to identify an objective basis for the value of btc.
-pbtc
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Upstart Business Journal: Bitcoin grows up with Blocksign, a non-currency product to verify signatures http://upstart.bizjournals.com/entrepreneurs/hot-shots/2014/08/05/bitcoin-grows-up-with-blocksign-a-non-currency.html?page=allIt is a lite PR piece on a potentially interesting application. Given btc core developers' attitude against this sort of thing, though, it is too bad he didn't implement on top of the namecoin blockchain. "The man who helped SEC accredited investors prove their status with a special digital badge is at it again, this time, with a signature product built directly on the bitcoin infrastructure. Nicholas Thorne, who co-founded and is the CEO of Basno, the smart badge company, today launched Blocksign, part of what signifies the next phase of bitcoin’s development beyond just a disruptor of the financial market." -pbtc |
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Who will pay for development of core protocol? In spite of many smart people involved, there are not many who have committed to learning the code in detail and extending or defending it. Many people have expressed displeasure with current developers in these forums, but look how far it has come. Without a working protocol and network, btc are less than worthless.
-pbtc
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Chaturbate was accepting bitcoins for a few months earlier this year, but then stopped without any fanfare or notice.
Anybody got the inside scoop on what went wrong?
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chaturbate.com has been accepting bitcoin for a while now. They offer a little discount compared to other payment forms. It is very simple, functional, and a lot of fun.
-PBTC
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-- thanks for the pointers to those links.
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love it. thanks to OP for pointing it out. the internets really suck.
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I just emailed (non-anonymously) one of their officers who manages a legal defense fund for another whistleblower:
Greetings Michael,
I am looking for a way to support Edward Snowden, and I wonder if your organization has contacts with him or Glenn Greenwald and could arrange a legal defense or personal support fund similar to what your organization provides for John Kiriakou.
Specifically, I wonder if you could consider acting as a trustee or escrow agent of a bitcoin address for Mr. Snowden. Bitcoin is a peer-to-peer currency/digital commodity based on open-source cryptography, and I know that many people in the bitcoin community are sympathetic to Mr. Snowden's stated goals. The exchange value of bitcoins has grown meteorically over the last 2 years, and I can only guess that many in the community would welcome the opportunity to support Mr. Snowden with their new-found wealth. Because bitcoins are based on a peer-to-peer protocol, they are easily moved across national boundaries, an attribute which Mr. Snowden may find advantageous.
Please feel free to contact me if I can provide you with more information about bitcoins or if you would like to discuss technical concerns. I would be delighted if I can help your work in any way.
Regards,
....
I will keep this thread updated if anything comes of this.
-pbtc
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Nice article. Deserves to stay near the top of the Press forum for a few days.
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--- Recv'd. Now sending 14.255 to Edvin512 @ Lfd4uS7NoszM3Rzhh7J6nNxhFkPm8BDgSe
Regards,
pbtc
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I'll play:
LWPMSH4ZgcC6VughyeRvifDJjQKk1wnDSA
All the best,
pbtc
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Since nobody commented on other thread, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=164638.0, thought it might be useful to mention that Easywallet has same problem with google. About 1000 wallets visible from web. Balance seems to be zero on all. |
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google
site:easywallet.org
just alerted support.
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Thanks for digging this paper up. They deal with concepts of reputation, anonymity, justice, etc.
A very worthwhile read and listen. It really opened my eyes to the notion of cyberspace as a new civilization.
pbtc
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Hilarious. I had several conversations with people interested in the bitcoin thingies who had tuned into the Wikipedia article for information.
But zero bids! [I bought them back @ the declared value of 30USD/BTC.]
I also gave a couple of physical bitcoins to my parents as gifts. They're in their 60's, reasonably technically literate, and they had read a couple of articles about bitcoins in the msm. Mixed results -- my mom seems to think you can just print the money, and she doesn't seem to understand at all. My step-dad is interested, but it is a little more work than he is interested in. Haven't heard from my dad yet. He's a programmer and probably the most financially literate, but it wouldn't surprise me if he just blows it off as a bunch of crap.
All the best, and thanks to you who gave me feedback.
-Ed
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-- thanks so much for the thorough proofing. I took all of your suggestions and slightly re-worded. I'd appreciate the input on the other pages if you have time. Sending small tip to 1Aywhs1r9YXMLn6WvDhoFctVnFR9fHzVcd shortly.
Re: size of QR Code
Yes, the QR code under the tamper-evident seal does scan properly. I tested it on an iPhone.
Re: Are these big C's?
No, these are not Casascius'. These are my own home-spun paper bills.
-pbtc
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