If I sold the bitcoins I currently have, I would have about $3,000 less USD than I originally used to buy (out of about a $11,000 investment).

Proof-of-stake is really cool. We need a coin-design forum to discuss the different algos we can use to build a blockchain. Bitcoin was the first but it isn't the best.

To pay for mining, you can either tax the holders of coins (through minting new coins) or the users of coins (through TX fees). For a variety of reasons, I would rather tax holders than users of a currency.

BTC mining is supported at first with a tax on holders in the mining phase and then changes to a tax on transactions after the mining phase. This is not my preference. If you stick with taxing holders of currency, you give better incentive to use it and you prevent the "ponzi scheme" characteristics of Satoshi or the Winklevosses owning > 1% of your economy for all time.

On top of this, PPC coin uses proof-of-stake instead of proof-of-work, which makes mining much cheaper in the first place and less vulnerable to attack by owners of large amounts of TH/s. It's a strictly superior system.

This is precisely why I'm a fan of PPC coin. First, big hardware isn't given as big of a preference in mining. Second, the mining rate levels off at a 1% increase per year, so nobody can ever own a large fixed fraction of all PPC coin for all eternity.

by the end of next week.

The bubble is still on. The hype cycle is still on. The market didn't stop rising because investors suddenly headed for the exit, like in a classic bubble. It stopped rising because the high market activity crashed the main exchange. Don't compare this to previous financial bubbles because there has never been something like this.

And strap yourself in for bubble #3. Watch out for the Gox!

I really don't like the fact that early adopters can own a huge % of the total currency that will ever be in existence. I wish the mining rate would taper off, but never go to 0. That way people that just hold their money get diluted eventually. There's no risk that Satoshi suddenly shows up one day with BTC worth $10 trillion

You're telling me THAT happened because of normal trading volume?

Geezus.

This is the reason why the PPC coin mining system is better - it is less energy intensive to mine proof-of-stake than proof-of-work.

Also, this is why we need transaction exchanges to allow more transparency between miners and users on transaction fees, as I talked about here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=166859

The first person to build one owns a major part of the future bitcoin infrastructure.

I could not agree with you more. The best thing that could happen for bitcoin right now is for Mt. Gox to list prices in millibits.

My idea is for a login-free betsofbitcoin site, using a method similar to satoshidice for payouts. Once you pay in to a bet (either yes or no) then your address is on file for the site, so they can payout your winnings to the address. No logins or other account information is required. Payouts can be audited based on the public blockchain, like satoshidice.

This would enable frictionless easy betting. Much better!

Probably needs to be based outside the US.

Why do I need a login to bet? Shouldn't my bitcoin address be enough for payment?

There's three strategies that coin designers can use to keep mining profitable and ensure a robust mining ecosystem:

1) Tax the holders of money by minting new coins
2) Tax the users of money with transaction fees
3) Lower the cost of mining (PPC coin).

For Bitcoin, at first most mining profit comes from minting and later from transaction fees. The Fee Crossover Point is the first time a block is generated where the transaction fees are worth more than the new coins (and it is not a fluke).

I am not a fan of supporting miners through taxing the users of money with transaction fees. A currency becomes more valuable when more people use it and a tax on transactions discourages use. The choice of Nakamoto to rely on transaction fees is part of the reason why Bitcoin has more of a commodity nature than a currency nature. It is a good choice for a tool that is a store of value, but not a good choice for a tool for the transfer of value.

As bitcoin becomes more reliant on fees, the paying of transaction fees will have to become more transparent. Currently, popular wisdom says that you should tip your miners a certain amount, but it is not clear that the tip actually gets you any benefit. However, in the future many miners will refuse to include transactions in blocks that don't pay the fee since that will be the primary source of their income. But not all miners will publish the minimum fee that a transaction must carry to be included in a block and it may vary from miner to miner, so this will be a confusing process for BTC users. And miners may miss out on higher profits by including lower fee transactions at the expense of high fee transactions.

What is needed is a transaction exchange where miners can auction off verification space in new blocks. This creates a transparent price for users for including their transactions in the blockchain. This can be combined with automated infrastructure for purchasing verification credits on the fly so the end user doesn't have to think about them. In exchange, miners are ensured the highest bidders will be in their blocks.

I believe that the Bitcoin ecosystem is growing exponentially. The news from Bitpay is a sign of this. They did $5 million worth of business last month - more than Silk Road. That could be $30 -$50 million by the end of the year. Tip bots on reddit, twitter, facebook, and email allow bitcoin to spread virally and fill the role it was meant for - the currency of the Internet.

But the price of Bitcoin is growing at a faster exponential. Part of this is pricing in the future exponential growth of Bitcoin. Part of it is speculation.

I predict that the price of Bitcoin is going to do a series of jagged swings over the next two years driven by speculation and hype bubbles and busts. But on a longer time scale, the swings will be centered on the true exponential of the Bitcoin economy.

So every now and then, people will get excited about bitcoin and bid it up to the ceiling of reasonableness. And then it will crash down below its true value. But if you watch the 6 month moving average it will be pure exponential up until market saturation.

The only thing that could stop this is the rise of a superior cryptocoin or widespread government persecution of cryptocurrencies.

My withdrawal from Mt. Gox has been waiting for 5 hours with no confirmations:

https://blockchain.info/tx/1ae4dab8492448d9d1117a668ee49e4601d628b3b38c6e457f9f249da517e6df

What is happening?

I made more from work, but barely.

I'm hoping to turn that around this month.

Is Dwolla down for anybody else? Is this a ddos?

I've already seen foreign-currency transactions for over $95 come through the Mt.Gox ticker.

My bet is that we hit $99 by 9am GMT

Yesterday the big movement started at 8AM central europe time. We will see about today.