Ok, I have some thinkingtime now, as I actually filed IRS, CRA, NYS ahead of the deadline for once. (My happiest tax payment ever thanks to forethought and a god-send of an accountant.) So now it is time to speculate.
Winter is ending. Barring major persistent geopolitical shock, U.S. stocks should have a blow off top this Summer, but I don't expect BTC new highs, nor XMR, until fall. My EOY central estimates are now SPX 2700±200 (after a 3000+ ATH), BTC 25000±5000 (no extrema), XMR 900±300 (no extrema) with UST to end closer to 2% than today, after a low near 3%. ± factors are roughly proportionate to estimated volatility, obvly. In 2019 the crypto/equity ratio should, on balance, increase, out to 2024 before reversing the cycle trend. For Summer I like oil and coal, and for EOY I hate industrial metals.
I admit experiencing some schadenfreude when observing that XMR is at 40% of it's highs while ZEC (the nearest functional comparable) is at 30% of it's highs. (Is the market saying XMR is 33% better?) Time will out whether the levels or the volatilities hold the stronger trend, but I expect a middle course as they both recover, disregarding for the moment both fundamentals and catalysing events.
Time is running out and you're close to being dead wrong on BTC and XMR.
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