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Jaroslaw, you gonna bring us down to single digits tonight or tomorrow?
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Seems like little more than a clever way for them to dump their massive holdings. The question I'd be asking is, why are they exiting Bitcoin? Maybe they see the writing on the wall?
They're not exiting Bitcoin. Most likely they will be buying back their bitcoins on MtGox at a profit as long as the price stays below $100. It's a clever way of keeping the price from dropping further and protecting their investment.  How long can they sustain that? |
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If everything goes smoothly, when is the soonest that the twins can start selling shares?
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Would anyone be surprised to learn that the Winklevoss twins were almost solely responsible for pumping Bitcoin from single to triple digits with bid-walls?
No more surprised than to hear that they now want to cash out and realise that they can't  Wouldn't it make more sense to take cash from the IPO to manipulate the price further before cashing out? They might have enough cash and coins to drive the price up and down at will. |
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Would anyone be surprised to learn that the Winklevoss twins were almost solely responsible for bid-walling Bitcoin from single to triple digits?
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Yeah, miners will either stop mining or continue mining but hoard most of the coins they receive to wait for a higher sell price.
Or those with the most hashing power may collectively decide to invest in an altcoin before a planned 51-attack on bitcoin. Afterwards, they can pump up the alt to unprecedented levels as it fills the newly created void left by bitcoin. You might scoff at the suggestion that the largest miners or pools would collectively decide to do such a thing. But, consider the potential fortunes to be made. |
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It's too wild to have a "normal." I'm not comfortable pointing to any event(s) as unusual when I've come to expect erratic movements due to all the manipulation.
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This market has been very unusual.
Unusual is the norm in this market. No, normally it behaves like it usually does. How it's behaving now is atypical. Frequent atypical behavior is normal in this market. |
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This market has been very unusual.
Unusual is the norm in this market. |
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Altcoins provide a powerful incentive to undermine Bitcoin's network.
Consider a situation where Bitcoin's price declines to, or stagnates at, a level that is no longer considered profitable by the miners or pools with the most hashing power. Suppose further that one of these miners/pools has enough power to sustain a prolonged 51% attack, or launch short but repeated attacks, sufficient to irreparably damage confidence in Bitcoin. This would result in immediate and intense competition among the most popular alts for Bitcoin's throne.
If the deviant miner/pool had invested in one or more of these alts before the attack, they stand to make a fortune afterwards. Further, if enough coins were purchased, the miner/pool could even control the early stages of competition with buy and sell walls. Such control could be used to maximize profits but is unnecessary, as the alts would rise in value without manipulative pressures while they are filling the void left by Bitcoin.
There is a fortune to be made through destroying Bitcoin.
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According to Moody, there are bids totaling more than $50 million in the $0 - $2.50 range.
It isn't difficult to manipulate the total bid sum. All you need to do is place lots of bids far below where you expect sales.
max bid sum (range $0-$265) was $24M -> there is not $50M in range $0-$2 (edit: and never was) Oops, you are right about total in $0-2 range. |
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According to Moody, there are bids totaling more than $50 million in the $0 - $2.50 range.
It isn't difficult to manipulate the total bid sum. All you need to do is place lots of bids far below where you expect sales.
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F1 F1 F1 F1 F1 F1 F1 F1 F1 F1 F1 F1 F1 F1 F1 F1 F1 F1 F1 F1 F1 |
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Earlier this morning, about 4 million was dumped within 30 minutes, right? According to Bitcoinity, it would only take a 12.5 million dump on gox to slide all the way down to $20. Am I reading this chart correct?
I realize 12.5 mil is not likely to be dumped all at once. But still... $20 doesn't seem that far away.
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Look in the mirror, who is wishful thinking now? I'm not really bullish nor bearish on the short term, it depends on how this whole regulation issue gets resolved. If it gets resolved in a good way that fully legitimizes the bitcoin exchange then yes I'm very bullish. I do feel that we're going to move up a little after the current period of consolidation, but it will be a relatively small and hesitant move as long as there's no resolution to these issues, and it could just as easily reverse again the week after. And it's not just that you have to get verified now to trade or that there are no fast, cheap and easy ways to move money in and out like with Dwolla. That's annoying ofcourse, but the main thing is that Gox apparently does not have its act together and trust in the exchange is dwindling. If you can't see that this all would cause a significant loss in volume then you're just blind.
I do understand how it could cause a drop in volume, but not to current levels. There are other factors in play that have a greater impact on the price and volume, imo. |
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Volume isn't just lower compared to post-crash, but also before that: That's probably because of the recent incidents with regulations. Many people are waiting until that is cleared up before they can confidently trade again on Gox. Until then the volume will stay extremely low, with short increases in volume during price changes. Wishful thinking, bull. A more likely scenario is that speculators consider the price too high (potential reward greatly outweighed by risk at the moment), stubborn miners in a more competitive environment are holding positions, stubborn sellers are not willing to go lower than their entry point and there is a much reduced flow of money into Gox for numerous reasons, including potential new investors sitting on the sidelines viewing a stagnant price and considering weaker returns. Doubtful that the regulations are primarily responsible for widespread panic or reluctance to buy in. It is true that the regulations make it more difficult to get money into Gox, but generally only for the criminal-minded. If you have nothing to hide, it is still easy to transfer money, for example via wire. I would entertain the possibility that recent regulation enforcement has scared away a small minority of criminals who were using bitcoin for money laundering. If this minority was responsible for most of the previous volume and are now absent, then I'd bet on a long, drawn-out downturn. |
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There was considerably more volume mid-April. A wall isn't effective when no one is interested in trading.
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I wish you "bulls" would put your money were your mouths are and start BUYING!! At least we'd have some action. As far as I can tell, that's why you hate FUD...because you're so easily shaken in your faith. Sell everything and buy bitcoin. You shouldn't even have a computer right now. It's depreciating anyway. Aren't you in reality, losing money based on your delusions thinking? Or is it really just all talk?
mmm well there's a reason the price is going up.... economics 099 the demand is stronger than the offer... but I'm sure you knew that already...  Unwise to assume no manipulation or insider trading, especially in a speculative market like Bitcoin. don't confuse the term demand with the term manipulation much less inside trading. demand refers just to the amount of "people" looking to buy bitcoins, the reason behind that demand can be interpreted in many ways and it's beyond my statement. If they are buying to manipulate the price or to generate network traffic or because they want to click their mouse multiple times, that's irrelevant. The bottom line is that there's a demand and that's why the price goes up regardless of the end goal of the individual buying the coins. Demand = pretend demand (i.e. not demand). Ok, whatever. But given your definition, which I admit may be the generally accepted one, then your analysis goes without saying and is therefore useless. Thanks. |
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I wish you "bulls" would put your money were your mouths are and start BUYING!! At least we'd have some action. As far as I can tell, that's why you hate FUD...because you're so easily shaken in your faith. Sell everything and buy bitcoin. You shouldn't even have a computer right now. It's depreciating anyway. Aren't you in reality, losing money based on your delusions thinking? Or is it really just all talk?
mmm well there's a reason the price is going up.... economics 099 the demand is stronger than the offer... but I'm sure you knew that already... Unwise to assume no manipulation or insider trading, especially in a speculative market like Bitcoin. |
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There is no reason for the sudden and dramatic rise in volume. Insider trading? My bet is that some traders have become aware of impending negative news regarding gox and want coins off the exchange. We've been on the edge since the Dwolla incident.
Is this some kind of advanced reverse psychology that you are speaking? There was just a conference with lots of VC's there. So, some traders know of impending negative news and so are somehow driving the price up and risking lots of $$$ in the meantime? You should write children's stories...  Come on, you can come up with something more factual that that. How about the Japanese stock market COLLAPSED by 12% yesterday and that is a sign that Quantitative Easing (aka planned hyperinflation) doesn't work. Looks like I may have been right though... Don't confuse being right via guessing, with being right for the correct reasons. eheheh I think things are a bit more complicated than any of us can understand to be honest. Sit back and enjoy the ride, however slow or volatile it may be... What am I confusing? I acknowledged I was guessing by calling it a "bet." But, it was an educated bet that took into consideration recent events. You are making some of the most speculative guesses in this thread and have a hard time admitting that you might be wrong. |
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