Hi,

Since I'm a n00b, I'm not allowed to post this in the hardware forum, but here goes nothing.

I'm quite new to the whole Bitcoin scene. My background is in CS and I had a significant component of cryptographics, so I'm catching up quickly.

I'm particularly interested in the economics of mining with the new ASICs rigs. At current market Bitcoin prices, it seems very interesting to obtain one early at a premium, in order to use it during the disruption that is likely to occur when these hit the market. Since this will be impossible if you buy one on the website of Butterfly Labs, I've been looking around on eBay. For around $5K-10K, you can buy a Butterfly Labs single SC unit with a low order number. It is suggested that these will ship earlier than the bulk of the units, giving the prospective owner a significant advantage. The conditions are almost always formulated such that risk lies with the bidder: if BFL doesn't deliver, or goes belly up for some reason, the seller won't refund and you're money is gone.

Before I do something crazy, I'd really like to have a sanity check from the community on the following question: Is it sane to fork over $5K-10K for an chance (not a certainty!) of owning a BFL Single SC ahead of the crowd? I'm talking about units that were ordered in June last year, so they have an order number in the low thousands (I've been told that BFL currently has a backlog of ten thousands of orders).

Really interested in your opinions! Thanks in advance.