There are tons of conspiracy theories about entities attempting to artificially lower the price of bitcoins in order to destroy the virtual currency.  However, it will be the entities attempting to support the price of bitcoins that will ultimately lead to its permanent demise.

I'm referring to the obvious and blatant manipulation occurring at MtGox and other btc exchanges.  Anytime bitcoin prices drop suddenly, MtGox immediately slows trading, then shuts down.  It does not have this problem when the price is increasing on similar volumes traded.  When MtGox reopens, the bid prices are suddenly 20%+ higher than they are elsewhere.  Similarly, when MtGox re-opens at the higher bid price, the "current" price at btc-e.org jumps and the bid and sell stream is suddenly 20%+ lower than the "current" price.  When the bid and ask streams on btc-e "catch up," there are suddenly countless orders for 0.05 or 0.01 btc at the prices between the new current value and the price it most recently traded approximately 20%+ lower.  During normal trading, the bid and sell streams are populated without such neatly rounded orders at each price level, reflecting a traditional market.  They are added as place holders to shore up gaps in the tables when the current price is manipulated, resulting in the requisite lag between the current and the bid/sell stream values at times of btc drops.  Interestingly, the sell stream suddenly starts to populate with orders to sell at prices at the current, suddenly re-elevated price, in the same neatly rounded quantities- 0.05 and 0.01 btc.

Price fixing, then dumping at higher levels, in order to shore up the btc trade price is going to result in a lack of trust in the exchanges and charges of a "rigged game" will destroy the currency.  A currency only requires one thing to be viable- the trust of those using it.  The obvious manipulation of the market by the exchanges will destroy that trust and, ultimately, bitcoin.

There are tons of conspiracy theories about entities attempting to artificially lower the price of bitcoins in order to destroy the virtual currency.  However, it will be the entities attempting to support the price of bitcoins that will ultimately lead to its permanent demise.

I'm referring to the obvious and blatant manipulation occurring at MtGox and other btc exchanges.  Anytime bitcoin prices drop suddenly, MtGox immediately slows trading, then shuts down.  It does not have this problem when the price is increasing on similar volumes traded.  When MtGox reopens, the bid prices are suddenly 20%+ higher than they are elsewhere.  Similarly, when MtGox re-opens at the higher bid price, the "current" price at btc-e.org jumps and the bid and sell stream is suddenly 20%+ lower than the "current" price.  When the bid and ask streams on btc-e "catch up," there are suddenly countless orders for 0.05 or 0.01 btc at the prices between the new current value and the price it most recently traded approximately 20%+ lower.  During normal trading, the bid and sell streams are populated without such neatly rounded orders at each price level, reflecting a traditional market.  They are added as place holders to shore up gaps in the tables when the current price is manipulated, resulting in the requisite lag between the current and the bid/sell stream values at times of btc drops.  Interestingly, the sell stream suddenly starts to populate with orders to sell at prices at the current, suddenly re-elevated price, in the same neatly rounded quantities- 0.05 and 0.01 btc.

Price fixing, then dumping at higher levels, in order to shore up the btc trade price is going to result in a lack of trust in the exchanges and charges of a "rigged game" will destroy the currency.  A currency only require one thing to be viable- trust.  The obvious manipulation of the market by the exchanges will destroy that trust and, ultimately, bitcoin.

Mt Gox has been making money in transaction fees for literally years.  Their website says they have handled 80% of all btc transactions since at least 2011.  They have had YEARS to get their servers upgraded.  They chose to do the 12 hour job of upgrading them in the middle of a panic???  If they had researched what bitcoin was intended to become, maybe read their own statements about their belief it would become a relevant currency GLOBALLY, and paid attention to their own subscriber growth trending data, they probably would have expected the volume of transactions and users to explode any time starting back in 2011, citing previous outages and volume related failures in 2010, 2011, and 2012.  CNBC has articles dating back to 2010 citing trader interest in bitcoin, and boom/bust cycles amplified by exchange-failure fueled panics.  Mt Gox has experienced "growing pains" EVERY single time volume has increased over the years.  I only loosely follow bitcoin and I am aware of all this from snippets in the financial news!  I rant bc I see the day coming when Mt Gox is bought  by some filthy bank and we're right back where we started.

Please feel free to add your own theories!

Too hard on Mt Gox, you say?  Well, consider this... If Mt Gox couldn't handle the influx of new users, why did they only experience problems when bitcoins were going down?  The volume didn't seem to bother the site one bit when bitcoin prices were skyrocketing.

Please reply with your predicted price after voting in the poll!  Extra credit: Add the price you think bitcoin will stabilize at once Mt Gox has been open for 24 hours in your reply!

Thanks for voting!

I will not be losing any sleep expecting them to be fully operational before the weekend.  What do you think?

for those who thought wall street types are not yet players, think again- the btc holding is part of the investment venture they started after winning a lawsuit against FB's zuckerberg.

a link to the NYT article:

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/04/11/as-big-investors-emerge-bitcoin-gets-ready-for-its-close-up/?hp

By the way, this will happen sooner than you think... I'm guessing within 72 hours of the time Mt Gox reopens for good

The best time to buy is the moment you find yourself saying, "Yeah, I thought about buying some btc, but now it doesn't seem as fun as it sounded and I'm no longer interested..."

That is, by definition, the bottom.

traders have been toying with bitcoins as a bit of mind candy/ speculation for many months.  CNBC has had plenty of articles citing this.  But the real action starts when bitcoin derivatives (regulated or otherwise) are created.  The start-up exchange announced a few days ago (with a pathetically small $500,000 in start-up funding) will offer btc derivatives (futures, options, and short sales).  Once this type of exchange comes online and proves to be secure, stable, and financially sound, the btc trade volumes will explode making the "DDoS" problems witnessed recently seem like a drop in the daily volume bucket.  Why?...

Because, once derivatives are involved, there will be leveraged financial incentive to manipulate btc pricing.  Then, it becomes a matter of who has the "biggest swinging d#$%" (how traders view themselves, not my terminology).  It doesn't take a wall street firm to be involved to attract these idiot "master's of the financial universe".  Every trader dreams of one day cornering a market, similar to how Soros and others made their billions.  Bitcoin offers a limited supply, thinly traded market opportunity, and the derivatives market provides the means.

They are coming.  Many btc believers will get fleeced in the volatility.  Traders will brag that they are "outsmarting" the "sheeple" because that is what they see their equities and bond colleagues saying about themselves in regards to the regulated markets when the go to work every day.

Just as the traders need to educate themselves on the technological considerations (secure themselves from professional hackers), those that know and understand the technological aspects of btc need to quickly educate themselves on the implications of professional traders in their midst.

Currently I see both sides overestimating themselves, and their ability to anticipate and manage the threat from the side they do not understand.  The professional traders will blindside btc hackers, just as hackers will freely rob ignorant, traders.

I open this point knowing it will be thrashed, but it is my opinion that it is NOT advisable to re-enter a position in bitcoins before Mt Gox re-opens.

I know that btc-e is allowing transfers of btc and their exchange is, technically, still open.  But I promise you (as a veteran of many years of stock trading) the volume to the downside to come will be great.  This happened with online stock exchanges, many of which went bankrupt after market panics.  In a panic, the only place people trust their money "safe" is when they have it in hand.  The stock market downturns were not what did online stock brokerages in, it was the fear that their solvency would jeopardize account holder's ability to successfully redeem their cash from the exchange.  A storm of monetary outflows (redemption requests- "people cashing out") becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

If the accounting practices are anywhere near as underdeveloped at Mt Gox as their btc trading platform, the exchange will be perish under the weight of cash redemption requests to come once they re-open.  Simply selling btc will not be enough for "investors" who were trying to time the market bubble.  They will not stop panicking until Mt Gox has ponied up their cash and transferred it to their bank of choice.  This will bankrupt Mt Gox, who undoubtedly will demonstrate SIGNIFICANT delays in processing cash-out requests.  Once these delays are evident, redemption requests will accelerate, and Mt Gox will quickly find itself cash poor.  I know many will argue that the cash "simply changed hands, not disappear" and that it will still be there, but I promise you even the regulated stock exchanges came up short.  In this case, an unregulated market, unregulated exchange, and Magic The Gathering roots, how much credibility do you think truly exists?  This is why btc is borderline illegal in the first place.  I like the idea of btc, and hope it carries on, but this is not set up to end well.  If it happened in stocks, which are regulated by federal laws, it will happen here where they have no obligation to anyone.  On that note, I'll probably be banned from the forum.  I'm not bashing btc.  Like I said, I agree with the concept.  But people must demand accountability, security, and oversight of the online exchanges for btc to be real.  If you expect everyone to wear a hacker-proof super-encrypted USB necklace, btc will never be more than a condescending socially-inept nerd toy.

I'll start by saying I support the idea of Bitcoins.  Similar to online stock trading exchanges, the bitcoin exchanges will catch up to handle the serious (adult) business they are pretending to be able handle, but mangling very badly at the moment.  Wall Street floor traders have been dabbling in bitcoins for many months now.  If exchanges like Mt Gox, etc think they have any idea how to handle the type of antics professional traders come up with to artificially manipulate unregulated markets, they are sorely mistaken.  When the derivatives market for bitcoins opens (a start-up exchange for bitcoin futures, options, and short sales is in the works), the amount of volume the bitcoin exchanges are seeing now is a drop in the bucket to what they are about to witness on a daily basis as money is moved in an out rapidly to make more lucrative derivatives contracts profitable.  The problem with the low supply of bitcoins is that it is a textbook "dream scenario" for wall street traders- i.e. Bitcoin is a market that can be easily cornered due to limited coin supply.  Once the derivatives market opens, there will be millions to be earned as the bitcoin market is cornered, dumped, and re-cornered in order to essentially print money fleecing futures, options, and short contract holders.

My point is that the volatility witnessed this week is only a prelude to the volatility that is to come.  Ad hoc exchanges like Mt Gox will remain in a state of intermittent artificially induced paralysis until they are put out of their misery by hackers.  Unfortunately, the only entity well organized enough to assemble the proper, safe, stable, reliable exchange now necessary will be tied to the evil empire of  commercial/retail/investment banking.  Gamers-turned-exchange managers were too busy enjoying their new-found transaction fee profits to see the crash course their ineptitude had placed their exchanges and, unfortunately bitcoins, on.  The profits from mining bitcoins were meant to be used to develop proper exchanges, but those were selfishly placed as well.  Instead, the profits were hoarded as the bitcoin world was set up to be handed over to wall street on a silver platter.  When your future bitcoin transactions are being processed by a high fee demanding bank, you will have "magic the gathering ad hoc exchange- we're smarter than everyone else because we're condescendingly computer savvy" and their ilk to thank.

Disclosure:  I sold all bitcoins I owned at $236.17, and do not plan to re-enter bitcoins in the next 24 hours.